HR derby

[MagicMike]

Who do you have to win? How much will Donaldson struggle in the second half after the HR derby?

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/all_star/y2015/index.jsp?content=asg_hrderby

[reedjohnsonfan]

Here are the betting odds on Sports Interaction:

 

Pujols +450

Bryant +475

Fielder +475

Frazier +500

Pederson +500

Rizzo +650

Donaldson +650

Machado +900

 

I am going to pick Rizzo at those odds.

[canadiansportsjunkie]

I'd like to see Bryant win it

[Spanky99]

I'd like to see Bryant win it

 

He will. If Pederson beats him out he'll win it.

[CJ-Freeway]

Hmm I'm going with JD!!!

[LTR]

How much will Donaldson struggle in the second half after the HR derby?

 

I'm preparing an analysis on this very thing... will post shortly

[Daniel Labude]

I'm going with mother nature

[jaysfan2014]

This HR Derby is going to get postponed to Tuesday(with the ASG moving to Wednesday). The forecast isn't promising for tonight in Cincy.

[HERPDERP]

Fielder

[LTR]

Taking into account the 2 finalists in the last 10 HR derby's (20 players), there has been a 6.2% drop in offensive performance (wRC+) in their 2nd half. Compare that to the league average performance drop in the 2nd half during those 10 years (4.1%), that's an additional drop-off of 2.1%. Nothing significant. It's worth noting that Ryan Howard had a mammoth 2nd half in 2006 which is skewing the data a little, and Bautista was injured soon after the event in 2012.

 

Raw:

 

Player (year) 1st half 2nd half Diff

Frazier (2014) 138 97 -29.8%

Cespedes (2014) 109 110 0.7%

Harper (2013) 146 129 -12.4%

Cespedes (2013) 95 112 12.4%

Fielder (2012) 135 173 27.6%

Bautista (2012) 141 80 -44.4%

Cano (2011) 129 138 6.5%

Gonzalez (2011) 168 137 -22.6%

Ortiz (2010) 145 123 -16.0%

Ramirez (2010) 129 123 -4.4%

Fielder (2009) 174 146 -20.4%

Cruz (2009) 115 111 -2.9%

Morneau (2008) 138 114 -17.5%

Hamilton (2008) 136 125 -8.0%

Guerraro (2007) 144 141 -2.2%

Rios (2007) 124 120 -2.9%

Howard (2006) 125 202 56.0%

Wright (2006) 145 112 -24.0%

Rodriguez (2005) 165 183 13.1%

Abreu (2005) 148 103 -32.7%

 

Total/Avg 137.5 129.0 -6.2%

League (2005-2014) 98 94 -4.1%

[Boxcar]

Taking into account the 2 finalists in the last 10 HR derby's (20 players), there has been a 6.2% drop in offensive performance (wRC+) in their 2nd half. Compare that to the league average performance drop in the 2nd half during those 10 years (4.1%), that's an additional drop-off of 2.1%. Nothing significant. It's worth noting that Ryan Howard had a mammoth 2nd half in 2006 which is skewing the data a little, and Bautista was injured soon after the event in 2012.

 

Raw:

 

Player (year) 1st half 2nd half Diff

Frazier (2014) 138 97 -29.8%

Cespedes (2014) 109 110 0.7%

Harper (2013) 146 129 -12.4%

Cespedes (2013) 95 112 12.4%

Fielder (2012) 135 173 27.6%

Bautista (2012) 141 80 -44.4%

Cano (2011) 129 138 6.5%

Gonzalez (2011) 168 137 -22.6%

Ortiz (2010) 145 123 -16.0%

Ramirez (2010) 129 123 -4.4%

Fielder (2009) 174 146 -20.4%

Cruz (2009) 115 111 -2.9%

Morneau (2008) 138 114 -17.5%

Hamilton (2008) 136 125 -8.0%

Guerraro (2007) 144 141 -2.2%

Rios (2007) 124 120 -2.9%

Howard (2006) 125 202 56.0%

Wright (2006) 145 112 -24.0%

Rodriguez (2005) 165 183 13.1%

Abreu (2005) 148 103 -32.7%

 

Total/Avg 137.5 129.0 -6.2%

League (2005-2014) 98 94 -4.1%

 

So, basically, just random noise.

[Boxcar]

I'd take Pederson, not that I'll be watching it.

[Stangstag]

I say Fielder wins it

[Horses Fart]

Pederson for the win but who hits the longest?

[o2cui2i]

anyone have a high def stream? can't believe that mlb.tv still doesn't show the HR derby

[BlueBirdBro]

Pujols. Vets over kids this time.

[RealAccountant]

I think Donaldson will take it

[Spanky99]

So, basically, just random noise.

 

Yes.

[GD]

Taking into account the 2 finalists in the last 10 HR derby's (20 players), there has been a 6.2% drop in offensive performance (wRC+) in their 2nd half. Compare that to the league average performance drop in the 2nd half during those 10 years (4.1%), that's an additional drop-off of 2.1%. Nothing significant. It's worth noting that Ryan Howard had a mammoth 2nd half in 2006 which is skewing the data a little, and Bautista was injured soon after the event in 2012.

 

Did you adjust for HR/FB% and BABIP? A lot of these slumps could really just be BABIP and HRFB normalizing.

[o2cui2i]

So, basically, just random noise.

 

the one stat that jays fans think about it is Bautista (2012) 141 80 -44.4% which is the worst on that list. just because he had a bad second half that year doesn't mean that it is a thing.

 

wasn't that the year he hurt the tendon in his wrist?

[GD]

the one stat that jays fans think about it is Bautista (2012) 141 80 -44.4% which is the worst on that list. just because he had a bad second half that year doesn't mean that it is a thing.

 

wasn't that the year he hurt the tendon in his wrist?

 

Yes, I believe so.

[o2cui2i]

stream please? I have one but it's really not very good.

[S33n]

MLB.tv giving a great big thank you to it's subscribers by not streaming the homerun derby?

 

edit: NVM, I think it's streaming on the front page of MLB.com

[Spanky99]

LTR logic's dumn.

[Spanky99]

MLB.tv giving a great big thank you to it's subscribers by not streaming the homerun derby?

 

terrible

[o2cui2i]

not a good stream... but it works... looking for better

 

http://www.rojadirecta.me/goto/www.ibrodtv.net/ibrodtv3.html

[Spanky99]

MLB.tv giving a great big thank you to it's subscribers by not streaming the homerun derby?

 

Maybe on TSN as they're airing it no?

[reedjohnsonfan]

I'd take Pederson, not that I'll be watching it.

 

Yeah I get excited for it then get bored after an hour. Hopefully the new rules will make it more interesting.

[S33n]

http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/38304112/v241916283/live-gillette-hrd-presented-by-head-shoulders

 

I'm waiting to see if this works..

[CJ-Freeway]

not a good stream... but it works... looking for better

 

http://www.rojadirecta.me/goto/www.ibrodtv.net/ibrodtv3.html

 

http://goatd.net/108910/watch-2015-home-run-derby