2015 Trade Value week...

[TheHurl]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-the-guys-who-just-missed-the-cut/

 

Any Jays predictions? I'll say EE off the list but on the Honorable mention. Travis might hit the HM too, Stoman would have made the list but might hit HM or just not make it because of the injury. Bats at 30, Donaldson at 16.

[LTR]

Buyers or sellers?

[TheHurl]

2014 list.

 

 

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year

50 Yan Gomes 26 CLE C 3.4 2021 $40,950,000 Unranked

49 Starling Marte 25 PIT OF 3.0 2021 $52,500,000 31

48 Kyle Seager 26 SEA 3B 3.4 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked

47 Alex Cobb 26 TB SP 3.1 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked

46 Edwin Encarnacion 31 TOR DH 3.7 2016 $20,000,000 45

45 Julio Teheran 23 ATL SP 2.3 2020 $41,600,000 Unranked

44 Chris Archer 25 TB SP 2.4 2021 $42,250,000 Unranked

43 Devin Mesoraco 26 CIN C 3.0 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked

42 Corey Kluber 28 CLE SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

41 Michael Brantley 27 CLE OF 2.6 2018 $30,000,000 Unranked

40 David Wright 31 NYM 3B 4.1 2020 $107,000,000 21

39 Dustin Pedroia 30 BOS 2B 4.2 2021 $107,500,000 25

38 Byron Buxton 20 MIN OF 1.2 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

37 Jose Quintana 25 CHW SP 3.3 2020 $40,650,000 Unranked

36 Billy Hamilton 23 CIN OF 2.7 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

35 Matt Carpenter 28 STL 3B 3.9 2020 $66,000,000 Unranked

34 Jose Fernandez 21 MIA SP 4.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 17

33 Carlos Gomez 28 MIL OF 4.8 2016 $17,000,000 33

32 Yordano Ventura 23 KC SP 2.8 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

31 Sonny Gray 24 OAK SP 3.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

30 Gregory Polanco 22 PIT OF 1.5 2020 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

29 Kris Bryant 22 CHC 3B 2.8 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

28 Andrelton Simmons 24 ATL SS 3.8 2020 $56,000,000 Unranked

27 Jose Bautista 33 TOR OF 4.8 2016 $28,000,000 35

26 Stephen Strasburg 25 WAS SP 4.4 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 14

25 Matt Harvey 25 NYM SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 7

24 Freddie Freeman 24 ATL 1B 3.7 2021 $123,500,000 Unranked

23 Xander Bogaerts 21 BOS SS 2.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 29

22 Yadier Molina 31 STL C 4.5 2017 $43,000,000 11

21 Buster Posey 27 SF C 4.9 2022 $165,500,000 6

20 Adam Wainwright 32 STL SP 3.9 2018 $78,000,000 23

19 Felix Hernandez 28 SEA SP 5.7 2019 $129,000,000 22

18 Madison Bumgarner 24 SF SP 3.3 2019 $52,000,000 19

17 Josh Donaldson 28 OAK 3B 4.5 2018 Arb1 – Arb4 Unranked

16 Yu Darvish 27 TEX SP 5.1 2016 $20,000,000 20

15 Giancarlo Stanton 24 MIA OF 5.0 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 8

14 Jonathan Lucroy 28 MIL C 3.9 2017 $12,250,000 Unranked

13 Anthony Rendon 24 WAS 2B 3.5 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 44

12 Anthony Rizzo 24 CHC 1B 3.3 2021 $64,000,000 37

11 Chris Sale 25 CHW SP 5.0 2019 $53,150,000 16

10 Jose Abreu 27 CHW 1B 3.9 2019 $51,000,000 Unranked

9 Evan Longoria 28 TB 3B 5.1 2023 $152,600,000 5

8 Manny Machado 21 BAL 3B 4.2 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 3

7 Salvador Perez 24 KC C 4.0 2019 $18,500,000 36

6 Troy Tulowitzki 29 COL SS 6.4 2021 $129,000,000 13

5 Yasiel Puig 23 LAD OF 4.4 2018 Arb2 – Arb3 24

4 Bryce Harper 21 WAS OF 4.0 2018 Arb1 – Arb3 2

3 Paul Goldschmidt 26 ARI 1B 4.1 2019 $43,000,000 9

2 Andrew McCutchen 27 PIT OF 5.7 2018 $51,500,000 4

1 Mike Trout 22 LAA OF 7.6 2020 $139,500,000 1

 

 

I see Thor debuting in the top 15. Tulo has dropped right out. Molina likely too.

[Spanky__99]

2014 list.

 

 

Rank Name Age Team Position Projected WAR Controlled Through Contract Dollars Last Year

50 Yan Gomes 26 CLE C 3.4 2021 $40,950,000 Unranked

49 Starling Marte 25 PIT OF 3.0 2021 $52,500,000 31

48 Kyle Seager 26 SEA 3B 3.4 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked

47 Alex Cobb 26 TB SP 3.1 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked

46 Edwin Encarnacion 31 TOR DH 3.7 2016 $20,000,000 45

45 Julio Teheran 23 ATL SP 2.3 2020 $41,600,000 Unranked

44 Chris Archer 25 TB SP 2.4 2021 $42,250,000 Unranked

43 Devin Mesoraco 26 CIN C 3.0 2017 Arb1 – Arb3 Unranked

42 Corey Kluber 28 CLE SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

41 Michael Brantley 27 CLE OF 2.6 2018 $30,000,000 Unranked

40 David Wright 31 NYM 3B 4.1 2020 $107,000,000 21

39 Dustin Pedroia 30 BOS 2B 4.2 2021 $107,500,000 25

38 Byron Buxton 20 MIN OF 1.2 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

37 Jose Quintana 25 CHW SP 3.3 2020 $40,650,000 Unranked

36 Billy Hamilton 23 CIN OF 2.7 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

35 Matt Carpenter 28 STL 3B 3.9 2020 $66,000,000 Unranked

34 Jose Fernandez 21 MIA SP 4.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 17

33 Carlos Gomez 28 MIL OF 4.8 2016 $17,000,000 33

32 Yordano Ventura 23 KC SP 2.8 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

31 Sonny Gray 24 OAK SP 3.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

30 Gregory Polanco 22 PIT OF 1.5 2020 Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

29 Kris Bryant 22 CHC 3B 2.8 TBD Pre-Arb – Arb3 Unranked

28 Andrelton Simmons 24 ATL SS 3.8 2020 $56,000,000 Unranked

27 Jose Bautista 33 TOR OF 4.8 2016 $28,000,000 35

26 Stephen Strasburg 25 WAS SP 4.4 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 14

25 Matt Harvey 25 NYM SP 3.8 2018 Pre-Arb – Arb3 7

24 Freddie Freeman 24 ATL 1B 3.7 2021 $123,500,000 Unranked

23 Xander Bogaerts 21 BOS SS 2.0 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 29

22 Yadier Molina 31 STL C 4.5 2017 $43,000,000 11

21 Buster Posey 27 SF C 4.9 2022 $165,500,000 6

20 Adam Wainwright 32 STL SP 3.9 2018 $78,000,000 23

19 Felix Hernandez 28 SEA SP 5.7 2019 $129,000,000 22

18 Madison Bumgarner 24 SF SP 3.3 2019 $52,000,000 19

17 Josh Donaldson 28 OAK 3B 4.5 2018 Arb1 – Arb4 Unranked

16 Yu Darvish 27 TEX SP 5.1 2016 $20,000,000 20

15 Giancarlo Stanton 24 MIA OF 5.0 2016 Arb2 – Arb3 8

14 Jonathan Lucroy 28 MIL C 3.9 2017 $12,250,000 Unranked

13 Anthony Rendon 24 WAS 2B 3.5 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 44

12 Anthony Rizzo 24 CHC 1B 3.3 2021 $64,000,000 37

11 Chris Sale 25 CHW SP 5.0 2019 $53,150,000 16

10 Jose Abreu 27 CHW 1B 3.9 2019 $51,000,000 Unranked

9 Evan Longoria 28 TB 3B 5.1 2023 $152,600,000 5

8 Manny Machado 21 BAL 3B 4.2 2019 Pre-Arb – Arb3 3

7 Salvador Perez 24 KC C 4.0 2019 $18,500,000 36

6 Troy Tulowitzki 29 COL SS 6.4 2021 $129,000,000 13

5 Yasiel Puig 23 LAD OF 4.4 2018 Arb2 – Arb3 24

4 Bryce Harper 21 WAS OF 4.0 2018 Arb1 – Arb3 2

3 Paul Goldschmidt 26 ARI 1B 4.1 2019 $43,000,000 9

2 Andrew McCutchen 27 PIT OF 5.7 2018 $51,500,000 4

1 Mike Trout 22 LAA OF 7.6 2020 $139,500,000 1

 

 

I see Thor debuting in the top 15. Tulo has dropped right out. Molina likely too.

 

Yeah, he mentions Molina as a miss. I bet Arenado debuts fairly high.

[GD]

Donaldson should absolutely be top 10.

[TheHurl]

Yeah, he mentions Molina as a miss. I bet Arenado debuts fairly high.

 

Arenado will probably be in at 10 or higher. Four arbitration years as a super two. Boras will get him paid but still not anywhere near his value.

[TheHurl]

Donaldson should absolutely be top 10.

 

He was only at 17 last year but I suppose losing his first arb case somehow helps his trade value. Maybe it's also because they still didn't 100% believe in him last year. I suppose top 10 makes sense.

[TheHurl]

Kluber, Carrasco and Salazar all top 25?

 

50 to 41 just debuted with 2 Indians on it Which would make 5 Indians on the list (I don't think Carrasco and Salazar will be top 25 but will be on.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-trade-value-50-41/

 

I also downgrade my Thor prediction as I noticed they seldom debut pitchers too high and there are so many great young players in the game right now.

[Jimcanuck]

Kris Bryant should debut top 10?

[burlingtonbandit]

Donaldson the only Blue Jay on the list.

[Spanky__99]

Donaldson the only Blue Jay on the list.

 

Heh!

[Orgfiller]

Carrasco should definitely be top 10. He has five dirt cheap years of control after this one and has been one of the ~five best pitchers in baseball since last July.

 

He's still a pitcher though.

[TheHurl]

Carrasco should definitely be top 10. He has five dirt cheap years of control after this one and has been one of the ~five best pitchers in baseball since last July.

 

and he's got 300 innings of 1.5 fWAR before that. Not to mention I've got him as 8th in the time period. Two of which will be ahead of him (Sale and Kluber), and a third that will be cheaper than him (DeGrom). Zero chance Carrasco is in the top 10. Not even the Indians view him the way you view him.

[GD]

and he's got 300 innings of 1.5 fWAR before that. Not to mention I've got him as 8th in the time period. Two of which will be ahead of him (Sale and Kluber), and a third that will be cheaper than him (DeGrom). Zero chance Carrasco is in the top 10. Not even the Indians view him the way you view him.

 

http://i.imgur.com/FH46AHH.gif

[Boxcar]

I'm gonna guess Hoffman #1.

[Boxcar]

Legitimate question: Is Dave Cameron the worst writer on FanGraphs?

[Angrioter]

Bautista over Bryant lol

 

 

 

Bautista for Bryant, AA do it!!

[Frenchsoup]

#39? Wow I don't know what to say. Cameron suggests that there's a lot of performance risk with Carrasco but he's been a megastud for 200 innings now. He has three truly obscene pitches that he can throw in the zone at will.

 

He has good mechanics as well. Pretty ridiculous he has Ventura and Wacha ahead of him, both are massive injury risks and aren't even close in talent imo.

[TheHurl]

#39? Wow I don't know what to say. Cameron suggests that there's a lot of risk with Carrasco but he's very clearly a legitimate DIPS deity. He has three truly obscene pitches that he can throw in the zone at will.

 

apology accepted

[TheHurl]

Legitimate question: Is Dave Cameron the worst writer on FanGraphs?

 

not the worst writer...just the worst baseball mind.

[Boxcar]

Who the f*** decides Dave Cameron should be in charge of writing these lists? It's egregious. The worst are the Dave Cameron fanboys who are actually defending him listing Yan Gomes ahead of Todd Frazier. Some guy said Walt Jocketty would be dumb to decline Frazier for Gomes. Holy f***?

[TheHurl]

Who the f*** decides Dave Cameron should be in charge of writing these lists? It's egregious. The worst are the Dave Cameron fanboys who are actually defending him listing Yan Gomes ahead of Todd Frazier. Some guy said Walt Jocketty would be dumb to decline Frazier for Gomes. Holy f***?

 

Because not everyone bases things on 3 months of ball. No one would have traded Gomes for Frazier in March. I don't know how Gomes responds to the injury but if he gets back to his 2014 bat, him and Frazier probably have similar bats.

[Boxcar]

Because not everyone bases things on 3 months of ball. No one would have traded Gomes for Frazier in March. I don't know how Gomes responds to the injury but if he gets back to his 2014 bat, him and Frazier probably have similar bats.

 

yeah well, everyone should

[reedjohnsonfan]

Because not everyone bases things on 3 months of ball. No one would have traded Gomes for Frazier in March. I don't know how Gomes responds to the injury but if he gets back to his 2014 bat, him and Frazier probably have similar bats.

 

That's a big if and it's not even fair to compare the two to be honest.

[Stangstag]

Who the f*** decides Dave Cameron should be in charge of writing these lists? It's egregious. The worst are the Dave Cameron fanboys who are actually defending him listing Yan Gomes ahead of Todd Frazier. Some guy said Walt Jocketty would be dumb to decline Frazier for Gomes. Holy f***?

 

I'm confused as to why you are so upset about this?

[burlingtonbandit]

Because not everyone bases things on 3 months of ball. No one would have traded Gomes for Frazier in March. I don't know how Gomes responds to the injury but if he gets back to his 2014 bat, him and Frazier probably have similar bats.

 

But the list is supposed to be about trade value. Not a chance Gomes has that much value right now.

[GD]

Legitimate question: Is Dave Cameron the worst writer on FanGraphs?

 

Yes

 

Because not everyone bases things on 3 months of ball. No one would have traded Gomes for Frazier in March. I don't know how Gomes responds to the injury but if he gets back to his 2014 bat, him and Frazier probably have similar bats.

 

Idk about that

[L54]

Legitimate question: Is Dave Cameron the worst writer on FanGraphs?

 

Paul Sporer.

[TheHurl]

But the list is supposed to be about trade value. Not a chance Gomes has that much value right now.

 

This is fangraphs. They are basing this on contracts and projections. He is still projected to provide 17.5 fWAR (without taking into account framing) over the 5 years of his very affordable contract. Take away the players names from it now and say player A 17.5 war $29m for 5 years. Player b 9 war $19m over 2 years. You now tell me who wins that deal. Not that much between them. Everyone's argument for not liking gomes spot is that he isn't as good as his projections. Funny how some people still love to quote projections for their faves but not for others

[GD]

Projections are great but the five year ZiPS ones are too aggressive and shouldn't be taken very seriously. Also, wins in 2015 and 2016 are worth a lot more than ones far in the future, whivh needs to be accounted for in some way.

 

I don't really have a problem with where Gomes is ranked.

 

The issue is with where Frazier was ranked moreso than Gomes.