Drew Hutchison

[GD]

I can't thank this enough (I haven't actually thanked it once but that is out of principle it being North). I was a stupid guy when I started on the boards... nothing has changed but because of some really smart people and a natural love of curiosity I reaearched on my own to get a basic understanding of the numbers and what they mean. Taking the time and just giving the basic understanding of where you are coming from will help get a point across more than saying something like "Hutch has been our best starter" or posting fangraph links and making absolute statements.

 

Just my little preach to the really smart on the board...someday I'll even teach you to talk to humans face to face as a thank you

 

Even girls?!?!?! wow!

[Governator]

delete - wrong thread

[Brownie19]

The point is that LD% isn't talent-based because it doesn't correlate year-to-year and is subjective. Hutch cannot be expected to maintain this high BABIP because his LD% is artificially inflated by factors outside of his control.

 

I asked this before, but nobody answered (wtf). You're saying LD% isn't talent-based because it doesn't correlate year-to-year and is subjective. It would certainly seem as though GB% and FB% are talent-based (fly ball and groundball pitchers) and those numbers do tend to correlate year-to-year....Does LD% simply get the shaft because it's more subjective than the other 2?

[GD]

I asked this before, but nobody answered (wtf). You're saying LD% isn't talent-based because it doesn't correlate year-to-year and is subjective. It would certainly seem as though GB% and FB% are talent-based (fly ball and groundball pitchers) and those numbers do tend to correlate year-to-year....Does LD% simply get the shaft because it's more subjective than the other 2?

 

I saw your post (could go in the sabrmetric thread!) but had to run out before I could start thinking on it. The subjectivity does have a lot to do with it, yes.

[CHRIS]

Even girls?!?!?! wow!

 

Let's not get ahead of ourselves here. Baby steps.

[Brownie19]

Good points, Hurl. I usually try to explain the concepts in full if there's a new topic being discussed. We created a stickied sabermetrics thread for people to ask questions and learn more about the advanced concepts. The issue of DIPS vs. hard contact is being talked about just about everywhere right now.

 

Sorry I asked in the wrong thread.

 

Is it the same for hitters? LD% isn't talent-based, just luck? that seems nuts.

[Boxcar]

Sorry I asked in the wrong thread.

 

Is it the same for hitters? LD% isn't talent-based, just luck? that seems nuts.

 

BABIP and quality of contact rules are different for hitters. As a hitter, it's quite possible to be have a true talent .350 BABIP because you can control how hard the ball is hit on average. Dunno about LD% being random though, North would probably know more.

[Brownie19]

It's talent-based for hitters. Hitters can control their line drive rate to some extent (although this doesn't necessarily mean that they're hitting the ball hard or are good hitters).

 

The GB/FB platoon provides a lot of insight into the dynamic here. Ground ball pitchers perform better against ground ball hitters and worse against fly ball hitters. Fly ball hitters try to get under the ball slightly to get it in the air, while ground ball pitchers try to make the ball dip slightly below the hitter's barrel. The result is that the hitter squares it up, resulting in more line drives. The opposite happens for fly ball pitchers and ground ball hitters. Pitchers perform better against same-type batters because the batter is going along with their plan and the ball stays off the barrel.

 

The more in-tandem that the distributions of the batter and pitcher are, the fewer line drives. The more apart they are, the more line drives. Over a full season, a pitcher will face a vast array of batter types that should result in him having a neutral LD%. So it's not that the pitchers control FB% and GB% but don't control LD%, it's that their FB% and GB% talents and the FB% and GB% talents of the hitter create the resultant LD%, and that the spread of batter types makes this LD% be neutral.

 

If a fly-ball pitcher ONLY faced ground-ball hitters in a season, he would have an elevated LD%. But this is not going to happen.

 

That's a really good explanation - thanks man. I'm really gratefully to have found this forum.

 

I wonder if we'll ever see a day where a manager purposely matches up a fly ball pitcher vs. a fly ball hitter (say Chris Carter) out of the bullpen

[BTS]

That's a really good explanation - thanks man. I'm really gratefully to have found this forum.

 

I wonder if we'll ever see a day where a manager purposely matches up a fly ball pitcher vs. a fly ball hitter (say Chris Carter) out of the bullpen

 

Joe Maddon has dabbled in using this kind of split.

[SAAviour]

RA can be sent down?

 

No, but he can be placed on waivers, go unclaimed then removed from 40 man roster. Maybe the way his last games have gone he'll even get claimed.

[Spanky__99]

Like I said, it doesn't matter cause he'll never get DFA'd.

 

You still said he'd get claimed though?

[Jayday]

LOL.. so it's been the framing that's killing the jays !! Send martin and nav to the fine arts and framing institute.