Daulton Varsho Hasn't Become a Worse Hitter, Just a Different One

The Blue Jays have been searching for a defining moment all season. Between injuries, underperformance from key veterans, and their position in the AL East slipping quickly, the club desperately needed a spark. For now, Daulton Varsho’s walk-off grand slam last Wednesday may be just the spark the Blue Jays were looking for.

It was the Blue Jays' first grand slam of the season and one of their biggest offensive swings of the year. More importantly, it came against a division rival they are actively trying to catch in the AL East.

For Daulton Varsho, this has to have been a relief. Aside from a small stretch earlier in the season when he hit three home runs in four games, his power had virtually disappeared, mirroring the larger offensive issues the Blue Jays have dealt with as a team.

Entering games on May 20, Varsho was on pace for 17 home runs, after hitting 20 in an injury-shortened 71-game season the year prior. A lot of the power numbers – including his SLG, ISO, and barrel rate – have all taken a sharp drop through 46 games this season. At first glance, that change may appear to be a step backward for a Blue Jays team desperate for power, but the underlying production suggests Varsho has not necessarily become a worse hitter, just a different one.

Firstly, let's flash back to what made him successful in 2025. Varsho sold out for power in a noticeable way. He mashed 20 home runs in 71 games, his pull-air rate (29.5%) had him in the top 15 in baseball, and his bat speed, and most notably his fast swing rate, soared to 56.2%. Particularly, he became elite at doing damage on pitches low in the zone:

The approach did come with trade-offs. Varsho posted a career-high swinging strike rate (15.4%) and a five-year low contact rate (71.7%), but the elite damage more than justified the sacrifice. He enjoyed the best offensive season of his career, mashing 20 home runs while posting a career-high .833 OPS. Varsho had a clear plan of attack at the plate, and with it came immediate success.

That is what has made his 2026 season so fascinating. Many of the traits that fueled his breakout 2025 campaign have faded, forcing him to find different ways to remain productive offensively. 

First, pitchers adjust. If Varsho was going to consistently hammer pitches low in the zone, opposing staffs were naturally going to attack him differently, and that has clearly happened early in 2026:

On top of that, some of the skills that made Varsho elite have fallen by the wayside, too. His fast swing rate has dropped significantly, as has his pull-air rate:

These changes could be connected. League-wide, batters typically swing slower on pitches up in the zone, and balls that get on you quickly are less likely to be hit in the air to the pull side. But even with that, Varsho still isn’t swinging as hard, even on the pitches he does get down in the zone:

In today's game, where teams can identify and attack offensive tendencies almost immediately, hitters rarely survive in the long term with just one version of themselves. The league constantly forces adjustments, and the best players in the game are usually the ones who adjust with them.

Varsho appears to understand that. Rather than continuing to chase the exact offensive profile that made him successful in 2025, he has started reshaping his approach to counter the way pitchers are now attacking him.

His decrease in bat speed has coincided with improved contact, and while not all of it is good, there have been some notable improvements:

Varsho's plate approach has shifted dramatically. He’s gone from a high-torque, pull-side power approach to a more disciplined approach built around contact and on-base ability. It's an offensive identity the Blue Jays have increasingly embraced as a team.

The change in approach isn’t necessarily a bad thing. While the Blue Jays could certainly use more power, especially after John Schneider called out his team's need for slug following Tuesday’s loss to the Yankees, Varsho has remained productive despite the change in approach. As a result, his numbers on the season look quite similar to where they were last year.

His wOBA is virtually the same (.345 in ‘25 vs .346 in ‘26), his wRC+ is similar (123 vs 120), and he is currently on pace to be the Blue Jays' best position player by bWAR (4.4). In other words, the production hasn’t disappeared; it's arriving in a different form.

If anything, Daulton Varsho has added another dimension to his offensive game. He has already proven he can impact the ball with elite pull-side power, and this season he has shown an ability to contribute through patience, contact quality, and on-base ability. Considering Varsho entered professional baseball as a catcher before developing into one of the sport's best defensive outfielders, his ability to reinvent himself offensively should not be underestimated.

The next step for Varsho may be learning when to lean into each version of his offensive game. Can he unleash an aggressive, pull-side swing when pitchers make mistakes inside the zone, while also maintaining the more disciplined approach he has developed this season? If he can consistently blend those two identities together, the Blue Jays may unlock an even more complete hitter. 

Since Varsho’s grand slam last Wednesday, he’s hitting .500 with a 1.272 OPS in a small sample, offering a glimpse of what this newer version of himself can look like when everything clicks. John Schneider appeared to recognize that as well, hitting him third in the lineup against right-handed pitching over the road trip.

There is still plenty of baseball left to play, but Varsho’s season may be less about rediscovering his old form and more about refining a new one. If pitchers are eventually forced to adjust again, it may signal that his offensive evolution is beginning to work and that an even more complete version of Varsho may still be emerging.

Stats and graphics updated prior to games on May 20.