Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[metafour]

You'd almost have to know 100% beforehand that he'd decline.

 

Of course he'd decline. This guy is 32 and coming off an absurd year; he's not going to be banking on taking $16 million over 1 year when he'll pretty easily get a $30-40 million contract that will let him comfortably ride out his career worry free. I'm sure his agent is well aware that he's playing in a launching-pad stadium and that it would therefore be stupid for him to get greedy and risk trying to repeat what he's done this year in hopes of cashing out again after 2016.

[L54]

Estrada is projected for a 4.48 ERA an 4.93 FIP.

 

Yup, thats f***ing disgusting. I guess like BTS said you'd have to be positive he'd decline.

[BTS]

Of course he'd decline. This guy is 32 and coming off an absurd year; he's not going to be banking on taking $16 million over 1 year when he'll pretty easily get a $30-40 million contract that will let him comfortably ride out his career worry free. I'm sure his agent is well aware that he's playing in a launching-pad stadium and that it would therefore be stupid for him to get greedy and risk trying to repeat what he's done this year in hopes of cashing out again after 2016.

 

How many pitchers in the last 5 years projected for an ERA in the 4.5 range and got 40M? I can think of Jason Vargas getting 4/28 Guthrie getting 3/25, and Scott Feldman getting 3/30.

 

So maybe Estrada gets 30ish if someone is dumn? Do you turn down 1/16 for 3/30? You'd have to not believe in yourself.

[TBJ12]

I think he gets the QO. We just paid Buehrle near $40 million. I'd take my chances with Estrada at 14 and hope he declines.

[BTS]

I think he gets the QO. We just paid Buehrle near $40 million I'd take my chances with Estrada at 14 and hope he declines.

 

Probably doesn't change your opinion, but $15.8.

[baubau]

How many pitchers in the last 5 years projected for an ERA in the 4.5 range and got 40M? I can think of Jason Vargas getting 4/28 Guthrie getting 3/25, and Scott Feldman getting 3/30.

 

So maybe Estrada gets 30ish if someone is dumn? Do you turn down 1/16 for 3/30? You'd have to not believe in yourself.

 

Volquez got 2/20 with a option year after a year he posted 1 WAR / 4+ xFIP.

[TBJ12]

Probably doesn't change your opinion, but $15.8.

 

It doesn't. Anything over 3 and 30-35 should be enough incentive for him to decline. I think he gets that.

[BTS]

Volquez got 2/20 with a option year after a year he posted 1 WAR / 4+ xFIP.

 

So basically Estrada has to hope the Royals are looking for another shitbag lol.

[baubau]

So basically Estrada has to hope the Royals are looking for another shitbag lol.

 

LOL! Well I hear that Cueto guy is a free agent this offseason so.....

[GD]

LOL! Well I hear that Cueto guy is a free agent this offseason so.....

 

Problem is, Cueto's the shitbag they're looking for lol

[BTS]

Seriously though, is there a less sexy group of pitcher signings than Volquez, Vargas, and Guthrie? Crazy.

[Cyborg]

So basically Estrada has to hope the Royals are looking for another shitbag lol.

Estrada fits in so nicely with the Royals. FB pitcher with great OF D (though Gordon gone) in a roomy OF. Chris Young style.

[BTS]

Estrada fits in so nicely with the Royals. FB pitcher with great OF D (though Gordon gone) in a roomy OF. Chris Young style.

 

I wonder if there's any chance the Royals keep Gordon. Probably not. Someone will give him a Werth contract.

[metafour]

How many pitchers in the last 5 years projected for an ERA in the 4.5 range and got 40M? I can think of Jason Vargas getting 4/28 Guthrie getting 3/25, and Scott Feldman getting 3/30.

 

So maybe Estrada gets 30ish if someone is dumn? Do you turn down 1/16 for 3/30? You'd have to not believe in yourself.

 

None of this matters, seriously.

 

You think the White Sox didn't have an inkling of thought that Melky Cabrera might tank before they threw $40 million at him? To no one's surprise he was worth -0.3 WAR this season. $30-40 million over a 3 year commitment isn't much to a team that is feeling the pressure to compete. Every team in the league needs pitching; at worst you get a #5 starter out of Estrada with the hopes that he's found more in the tank and maybe he's able to outperform his projections for a year or two like he has this season. This guy has had good seasons in the past and he's now also shown that he's not going to fall apart emotionally under pressure.

[Cyborg]

I wonder if there's any chance the Royals keep Gordon. Probably not. Someone will give him a Werth contract.

He plays LF and hits 8th. Obviously not.

[baubau]

I wonder if there's any chance the Royals keep Gordon. Probably not. Someone will give him a Werth contract.

 

Too bad he's a good american boy who looks to make bank. Would have loved him as a target as well if the Jays couldn't get Hayward.

[BTS]

None of this matters, seriously.

 

You think the White Sox didn't have an inkling of thought that Melky Cabrera might tank before they threw $40 million at him? To no one's surprise he was worth -0.3 WAR this season. $30-40 million over a 3 year commitment isn't much to a team that is feeling the pressure to compete. Every team in the league needs pitching; at worst you get a #5 starter out of Estrada with the hopes that he's found more in the tank and maybe he's able to outperform his projections for a year or two like he has this season. This guy has had good seasons in the past and he's now also shown that he's not going to fall apart emotionally under pressure.

 

I don't really see what Melky has to do with this. 3/40 was pretty reasonable for what you would have expected from him a year ago. For Estrada, you can probably count on one hand the teams that would expect to break even on a 3/30 deal.

[L54]

Too bad he's a good american boy who looks to make bank. Would have loved him as a target as well if the Jays couldn't get Hayward.

 

Heyward*

 

Not being snarky, I've just seen you misspell it a few times.

[baubau]

Heyward*

 

Not being snarky, I've just seen you misspell it a few times.

 

No man, its Hayward. He'll come to Canada and understand our "Hey" is actually pronounced "Hay" and update his name accordingly.

 

 

god dammit lol..

[Scion]

1/17 is a lot of money. There isn't a recent precedent for a pitcher projected at like a 4.5 ERA getting a contract big enough to turn it down. Not that it can't happen, but there aren't a lot of truly stupid FO's left.

 

This article suggests that Estrada's ability to generate soft contact and induce a BABIP in the lower third of the league is a legitimate skill, and thus FIP and xFIP are not accurate indicators of his future ERA. I also recall reading a post from nox in the past about SP with strong changeups outperforming their peripherals, so perhaps there is something to be said about that as well.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

[jaysblue]

Estrada put up a 3.13 ERA in the AL East and is having one heck of a post season. 5 years 70 MIL isnt out of the question and I'm not saying I agree with it, but GM's are always looking for a pitcher to help them right away

 

lol. You're an idiot for even suggesting that.

[jaysblue]

Estrada's had a pretty good 2012, 2013, 2015. You get paid as a free agent for what you've done, not what you project to contribute going forward. He just blanked baseball's wonder team on national TV. There aren't 30 Friedman's.

 

I'd love to be in a salary league with you!

[L54]

No man, its Hayward. He'll come to Canada and understand our "Hey" is actually pronounced "Hay" and update his name accordingly.

 

 

god dammit lol..

 

Lol it's free to dream!

[reedjohnsonfan]

I'd love to be in a salary league with you!

 

lol!!

[GD]

This article suggests that Estrada's ability to generate soft contact and induce a BABIP in the lower third of the league is a legitimate skill, and thus FIP and xFIP are not accurate indicators of his future ERA. I also recall reading a post from nox in the past about SP with strong changeups outperforming their peripherals, so perhaps there is something to be said about that as well.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

 

1. Tony Blengino is ehh.

2. It's absolutely a skill, but if you project his ERA at a rate that's, say, .4 runs better than his DIPS (which is a MASSIVE spread that no one can really be expected to attain) he's still probably a 4.1 ERA guy or whatever. He's just not really all that deserving of a big contract.

[GD]

I'd love to be in a salary league with you!

 

Despite not finishing significantly better than him in a weaker division in LOD?

[reedjohnsonfan]

This article suggests that Estrada's ability to generate soft contact and induce a BABIP in the lower third of the league is a legitimate skill, and thus FIP and xFIP are not accurate indicators of his future ERA. I also recall reading a post from nox in the past about SP with strong changeups outperforming their peripherals, so perhaps there is something to be said about that as well.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/marco-estrada-al-contact-manager-of-the-year/

 

Yeah I think Estrada is a decent pitcher. The thing with him is you probably know what you're getting... not a lot of upside but a pretty high floor. It'll be interesting to see how many years he can bag.

[Scion]

1. Tony Blengino is ehh.

2. It's absolutely a skill, but if you project his ERA at a rate that's, say, .4 runs better than his DIPS (which is a MASSIVE spread that no one can really be expected to attain) he's still probably a 4.1 ERA guy or whatever. He's just not really all that deserving of a big contract.

 

Would you mind elaborating on point number two? I'm not terribly familiar with DIPS, and why I should be using it as a baseline for what to expect from Estrada moving forward. Thank you in advance.

[Dr Negative]

I think he'll get 4/48.

[Boxcar]

I'd love to be in a salary league with you!

 

Well we already knew this, but what a f***ing dickhead this guy is.