Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[Laika]

In a fairly large ss this year, Estrada has proven to have excellent command of his fastball and change, with his curve not too far behind. It's entirely possible that Estrada may have figured something out with his delivery that's giving him the better command. I guess we'll have to give Doubront some more starts but his arsenal is weak. Estrada is by far the better #5 option.

 

Estrada is probably more talented, sure, but peripherals and projections think it's pretty close.

 

Teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay make a habit out of selling guys like Estrada (or just letting them walk), and bringing in guys like Doubront (currently, Erasmo Ramirez).

[GD]

Estrada is probably more talented, sure, but peripherals and projections think it's pretty close.

 

Teams like Oakland and Tampa Bay make a habit out of selling guys like Estrada (or just letting them walk), and bringing in guys like Doubront (currently, Erasmo Ramirez).

 

Jesse Chavez

[gruber92]

Huh? Estrada has the worst walk rate of his career. He also has the worst xFIP- of his career.

 

but earned runs

 

Ok, bottom line.. Do you choose Estrada or Doubront to start in a must win game? The fact that you guys are looking for valid statistical facts to back a Doubront argument just shows you like to argue period. Estrada has the lower contact rate and the better swstr%. With both having the same service time, Estrada has made out much better financially, so i guess you can say the Brewers and the Jays orgs are just plain dumb.

[GD]

Ok, bottom line.. Do you choose Estrada or Doubront to start in a must win game? The fact that you guys are looking for valid statistical facts to back a Doubront argument just shows you like to argue period. Estrada has the lower contact rate and the better swstr%. With both having the same service time, Estrada has made out much better financially, so i guess you can say the Brewers and the Jays orgs are just plain dumb.

 

What? Looking for valid facts to back an argument is, well, how you argue.

 

To answer your question, I would probably flip a coin or play matchups.

[Boxcar]

so i guess you can say the Brewers and the Jays orgs are just plain dumb.

 

I'd be pretty comfortable saying this.

[GD]

I'd be pretty comfortable saying this.

 

Very.

[Dick_Pole]

Ok, bottom line.. Do you choose Estrada or Doubront to start in a must win game? The fact that you guys are looking for valid statistical facts to back a Doubront argument just shows you like to argue period. Estrada has the lower contact rate and the better swstr%. With both having the same service time, Estrada has made out much better financially, so i guess you can say the Brewers and the Jays orgs are just plain dumb.

 

Not sure why you're arguing this. Estrada being better than Doubront doesn't mean you extend him which is the topic at hand. Let's just all be happy he's been doing well and hope he continues to do well until the end of the year. Then congratulate him on his big pay day with some other team.

 

If Estrada does well enough, can the Jays get a comp pick assuming he leaves? If so, then let him go. If not, I wouldn't be opposed to having him back again next year at a decent price.

[GD]

Near zero chance we get a comp pick for Estrada.

[BTS]

Not sure why you're arguing this. Estrada being better than Doubront doesn't mean you extend him which is the topic at hand. Let's just all be happy he's been doing well and hope he continues to do well until the end of the year. Then congratulate him on his big pay day with some other team.

 

If Estrada does well enough, can the Jays get a comp pick assuming he leaves? If so, then let him go. If not, I wouldn't be opposed to having him back again next year at a decent price.

 

They'd have to offer him a 1-year contract at 16-17M to get a comp pick.

[Dick_Pole]

Very.

 

The Jays' record under AA when it comes to evaluating, acquiring, developing and extending position players is excellent. It's the pitching side that's been atrocious. I wouldn't call the organization stupid but there's is definitely something broken.

[GD]

The Jays' record under AA when it comes to evaluating, acquiring, developing and extending position players is excellent. It's the pitching side that's been atrocious. I wouldn't call the organization stupid but there's is definitely something broken.

 

Absolutely. Happened with the Lansing ones (Nicolino sucks, they picked the wrong one of the good two because of their stupid philosophies) and they're going to do it again with Hoffman.

[jaysblue]

In a fairly large ss this year, Estrada has proven to have excellent command of his fastball and change, with his curve not too far behind. It's entirely possible that Estrada may have figured something out with his delivery that's giving him the better command. I guess we'll have to give Doubront some more starts but his arsenal is weak. Estrada is by far the better #5 option.

 

Weren't people saying this about Carlos Villanueva a couple years back?

[Spanky99]

we can all spend our monopoly money as we see fit.

 

Oh rly???

[Spanky99]

Ok, bottom line.. Do you choose Estrada or Doubront to start in a must win game? The fact that you guys are looking for valid statistical facts to back a Doubront argument just shows you like to argue period. Estrada has the lower contact rate and the better swstr%. With both having the same service time, Estrada has made out much better financially, so i guess you can say the Brewers and the Jays orgs are just plain dumb.

 

Back end starter, just stop.

[Spanky99]

Estrada and comp pick, lol.

[GD]

Weren't people saying this about Carlos Villanueva a couple years back?

 

Good comparison.

[KingKat]

Yes. He's the obvious comparison. We need to stop falling in love with players that have stretches of playing above their heads. He's a good #5. But nothing that can't be replaced rather easily. There's no reason to commit to him with anything extensive. 2 years max. Ideally, 1 plus and option. If he can do better elsewhere, good for him.

 

Out goes Villanueva, in comes J.A Happ. Out goes J.A. Happ, in comes Marco Estrada.

[GD]

Out goes Villanueva, in comes J.A Happ. Out goes J.A. Happ, in comes Marco Estrada.

 

Out goes Marco Estrada, in comes Felix Doubront, out goes Felix Doubront, in comes....

[Nightmaul]

Pulling Estrada out of the rotation would be monumentally stupid. In 14 games started he's only allowed more than 4 runs once. He's only allowed 4 runs twice. He's been almost completely nails. Even the game he got pulled early 2 runs weren't earned and the ump wasn't giving him any calls.

[Daniel Labude]

Pulling Estrada out of the rotation would be monumentally stupid. In 14 games started he's only allowed more than 4 runs once. He's only allowed 4 runs twice. He's been almost completely nails. Even the game he got pulled early 2 runs weren't earned and the ump wasn't giving him any calls.

 

And Sanchez has been better, yet they pulled him from the rotation. Better be getting an ACE or giving Norris a shot.

[Boxcar]

Pulling Estrada out of the rotation would be monumentally stupid. In 14 games started he's only allowed more than 4 runs once. He's only allowed 4 runs twice. He's been almost completely nails. Even the game he got pulled early 2 runs weren't earned and the ump wasn't giving him any calls.

 

Jesus Christ.

[BTS]

Norris is going to et crushed if he's inserted into the rotation now. He's walking 4/9 in AAA, and isn't going to strike out enough to make up for it. He's also a flyball pitcher. An 8/4.5 K/BB and 40% GB rate is not going to cut it.

[Nightmaul]

Jesus Christ.

 

What is wrong with pointing out the facts? Estrada is giving this team a chance to win every game.

[KingKat]

Norris is going to et crushed if he's inserted into the rotation now. He's walking 4/9 in AAA, and isn't going to strike out enough to make up for it. He's also a flyball pitcher. An 8/4.5 K/BB and 40% GB rate is not going to cut it.

 

Norris is having a just plain bad season. He's moving backwards.

[glory]

Estrada is doing well but he is what he is. Don't fall in love with a hot streak in a free agent year. Just hope he continues this all season and goes on to get a deserved payday from another team in the winter.

[LTR]

Estrada is doing well but he is what he is. Don't fall in love with a hot streak in a free agent year. Just hope he continues this all season and goes on to get a deserved payday from another team in the winter.

 

League SIERA last year: 3.85

 

Estrada SIERA from 2011 to 2015: 3.65

 

Yes, is what he is.

[baubau]

Out goes Marco Estrada, in comes Felix Doubront, out goes Felix Doubront, in comes....

 

Aaron Sanchez.

[Boxcar]

What is wrong with pointing out the facts? Estrada is giving this team a chance to win every game.

 

Earned runs are a team stat, Estrada gives up a lot of flyballs while not being exceptionally good at striking guys out and is currently walking more guys than he ever has. What you're seeing is a mirage. I'd love to say he'll be some kind of revelation but there is nothing to indicate that being the case.

 

Just don't get too attached.

[Nightmaul]

Earned runs are a team stat, Estrada gives up a lot of flyballs while not being exceptionally good at striking guys out and is currently walking more guys than he ever has. What you're seeing is a mirage. I'd love to say he'll be some kind of revelation but there is nothing to indicate that being the case.

 

Just don't get too attached.

 

I'm attached, and I'm loving every minute of it.

[JaysFan4Ever]

I wouldn't be opposed to giving him an extension depending on how he finishes the season and if he wants to stick around. He could just say f*** it and want out the door especially if the team has a shot to make the playoffs and sits on their hands. I'd wait until the end of the season, when the team has exclusive rights, or maybe late Sept, if they're out of the playoffs, to offer something modest and see if he takes it. The team needs some depth in both the pen, rotation and a swing man. You never know when someone will get hurt. Maybe he'll take a one year deal. Maybe a 2-3 year deal at a modest rate. Maybe he says I'm cashing in on the year I've had unless he implodes during the second half. Unless the Jays think they have better options internally or can actually sign someone better than AAAA or 25th man type players or piss away decent assets for guys who aren't going to be anywhere near where they once were, it's not a bad idea, but he's likely going to take his chance at FA elsewhere, maybe a pitchers park, or whomever offers the most money like many guys do unless the team makes the post season and even then he could go. I won't miss him if he's gone, but it speaks to the Jays needing to stabilize this pitching situation. They should have some more money next year but depending on who's GM and what "plan" is rolled out we'll see how it's spent and used.