General Jays Discussion 2015

[Jayzfan79]

http://i.giflike.com/9BZltjG.gif

[LTR]

I miss Danny V, he was one of my favorites. Light tower power.

 

Obviously you miss him now that he's OPS'ing a bazillion.

[Frenchsoup]

hopefully gibby remembers to throw a rh'er at him

[LTR]

The thing about Valencia this year, he's incredibly lucky:

 

19.0 % FB/HR

.363 BABIP

[LRC1962]

The biggest rally killer in BB is the DP. FIP, xFIP, WAR or any other sabermetric stat can never tell you how a group of 4 infielders will do. They each have to have absolute belief that each will do the job needed to pull it off. It will then reflect on the pitching staff. An infield D that pulls off DPs really well tends to also develop a pitching staff to throw for ground balls. On the otherhand if the infield does not have the trust to pull off the DP, you then will see a pitching staff that will then try for the strikeout or flyball. All this gets reflected in ERA and WHIP.

Sabermetrics can never tell you that story. Sabermetrics is fun, but because I believe BB is a TEAM sport, the team individual part sabermetrics are important, sabermetrics sum total rarely tell you what the TEAM results will be.

[baubau]

I think it's hilarious that Danny V is going to overshadow Lawrie's return lol.

 

Danny V: 1.0 WAR

Lawire: 0.5 WAR

 

LOL!!!

[LRC1962]

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

[Candy Maldonado]

The biggest rally killer in BB is the DP. FIP, xFIP, WAR or any other sabermetric stat can never tell you how a group of 4 infielders will do. They each have to have absolute belief that each will do the job needed to pull it off. It will then reflect on the pitching staff. An infield D that pulls off DPs really well tends to also develop a pitching staff to throw for ground balls. On the otherhand if the infield does not have the trust to pull off the DP, you then will see a pitching staff that will then try for the strikeout or flyball. All this gets reflected in ERA and WHIP.

Sabermetrics can never tell you that story. Sabermetrics is fun, but because I believe BB is a TEAM sport, the team individual part sabermetrics are important, sabermetrics sum total rarely tell you what the TEAM results will be.

 

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

 

wut?

[LTR]

The biggest rally killer in BB is the DP. FIP, xFIP, WAR or any other sabermetric stat can never tell you how a group of 4 infielders will do. They each have to have absolute belief that each will do the job needed to pull it off. It will then reflect on the pitching staff. An infield D that pulls off DPs really well tends to also develop a pitching staff to throw for ground balls. On the otherhand if the infield does not have the trust to pull off the DP, you then will see a pitching staff that will then try for the strikeout or flyball. All this gets reflected in ERA and WHIP.

Sabermetrics can never tell you that story. Sabermetrics is fun, but because I believe BB is a TEAM sport, the team individual part sabermetrics are important, sabermetrics sum total rarely tell you what the TEAM results will be.

 

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

 

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRRsJ8Wjrwx6Yc7rRc4BtwAv0-jkJ1zxl3DacDOd5OlUeRyleAXBg

[LRC1962]

Danny V: 1.0 WAR

Lawire: 0.5 WAR

AA if you have not noticed is putting a very high value on team D. Danny V was let go because he was clueless if he had to do something more with the ball then catch it. Love Brett, but his days are numbered in BB because he plays it like you play hockey. He will always be spending too much time on the DL.

[jays4life19]

Lmao.

[Candy Maldonado]

AA if you have not noticed is putting a very high value on team D. Danny V was let go because he was clueless if he had to do something more with the ball then catch it. Love Brett, but his days are numbered in BB because he plays it like you play hockey. He will always be spending too much time on the DL.

 

mods?

[Caper]

Having Reyes gone and a capable LFer must be helping the staff.

[Caper]

I don't know about advanced stats. But you can win a WS with this staff, provided Dickey holds up and Estrada can stay fresh, as he seems to whither a bit when he ges overworked.

[LRC1962]

I understand how much all of you love sabermetrics, but really folks at least when it comes to defensive WAR????? I am still laughing.

1993 dWAR has Scott Fletcher 3rd overall in the AL for all positions combined. Cal Ripken 7th overall AL all positions combined. I am sorry but having seen those play (they did turn DPs very well), they were not close defensively to Roberto Alomar who did not show up in the top 10. And if I took the time I could mention at least 6 others who played SS and 2nd far far better then they did.

[LRC1962]

Fangraph projection (if reality only played out that way), has BJ finishing with 89.9 wins and NYY 89.2.

[Trouba95]

29-20 and we're in.

[Dick_Pole]

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

 

I remember that one year when George Bell went 27-5 with a 2.52 ERA and won the MVP award.

[nonamejays]

Winning 3 out of 5 shouldn't be that difficult with the lineup we're throwing out there. I wouldn't be shocked if they got 95 wins.

[Mac Outlaw]

That's crazy you think Lawrie's defense alone would give him something. So much dumb to drop him. Loup hasn't pitched in a week and a half and Schultz has pitched maybe twice in 2 weeks. We have 3 starters projected to throw 200+ innings with Estrada routinely pitching into the 7th inning as well. 8 man pen is dumb. We could probably get away with 6.

 

A lot of off days this month too. I also think we could get by with a 6 man pen.

 

I'd like to see Thole and Pompey up. Although Thole last time I checked was on the DL.

[Baseball Player]

its cos we has more rbis

[baubau]

AA if you have not noticed is putting a very high value on team D. Danny V was let go because he was clueless if he had to do something more with the ball then catch it. Love Brett, but his days are numbered in BB because he plays it like you play hockey. He will always be spending too much time on the DL.

 

Danny Valencia has a good defensive metrics at 1B. Chris Colabello does not. If you want to judge his defense with his time in LF or out of position, then we should start arguing about how Jose Bautista is a terrible defensive catcher. Danny Valencia has also been a better hitter than Colabello against LHP and have been similar vs RHP this year.

 

There is not a single argument, defensive metric or offensive, which you can argue that Danny Valencia is a inferior player to Colabello. You want to say AA is focusing on defense? Fine, we can speculate all we want. DFA him over Colabello is one of his worst moves and its unfortunate that fans don't realize what an asset the Blue Jays literally gave away for free just to save a couple of bucks.

 

That's crazy you think Lawrie's defense alone would give him something. So much dumb to drop him. Loup hasn't pitched in a week and a half and Schultz has pitched maybe twice in 2 weeks. We have 3 starters projected to throw 200+ innings with Estrada routinely pitching into the 7th inning as well. 8 man pen is dumb. We could probably get away with 6.

 

Lawrie is actually rating as a negative defender this year. The games I've seen him at he still looks the same so I am speculating that it may be the lack of range he is unable to cover at the O.co. His BABIP is at a career high .331 and he's only hitting at 99 wRC+.

 

I am very happy AA gave him up. If he still got Donaldson without giving up Lawrie he'd likely be the 2B and Travis > Lawrie. Hopefully Travis' career doesn't tailspin down like Lawrie's after the first season and hopefully the injuries can be behind him next season.

 

Agreed on loosing Danny V. Option Schultz or DFA Bello. There were better moves AA could have made to keep him.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

See the Hive has Gone Full ******* on this one!

 

Mods !

 

Take out these thugs!

 

Oh wait the Mod named hurl is one of the Hive!

 

No punishment will be given!

 

Carry on.... lol

[o2cui2i]

Agreed on loosing Danny V. Option Schultz or DFA Bello. There were better moves AA could have made to keep him.

 

I think DV was against being a bench piece and was let go because of that. He was only going to be a pinch hitter basically if he stayed. If DV was willing to be part of the race as a bench player he would still be on the team, but he probably feels that he needs to play because he has not contract for next year. Colabello is just happy to be on a team. DV wants to play ever

[Atothe]

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

 

LOOOL, love this post

[nextyear]

If I understand correctly, the Sabermetrics enthusiasts on this forum are saying that ERA is a team stat? That is certainly the case, ERA is a team stat since an improvement in the Blue Jays defense has greatly improved the team ERA. Regardless of what any stat says, the combined pitcher/team defense has been much better since the All Star break.

[Boxcar]

Case in point. George Bell at his peak would have very high WAR, FIP, xFIP, but anyone who played with him, watched him knew that any ball that went into left field was an adventure and advancing on him was a very high possibility. Therefore although we all loved him, we also would have not minded to have someone else that could actually play left field well with an arm.

 

Amazing

[Boxcar]

If I understand correctly, the Sabermetrics enthusiasts on this forum are saying that ERA is a team stat? That is certainly the case, ERA is a team stat since an improvement in the Blue Jays defense has greatly improved the team ERA. Regardless of what any stat says, the combined pitcher/team defense has been much better since the All Star break.

 

Yeah, everyone is aware of this. Isn't it better to try to split up pitching and defense to better assess how each is doing?

[GD]

Danny V was let go because he was clueless if he had to do something more with the ball then catch it.

 

that's not why but ok

[TheHurl]

See the Hive has Gone Full ******* on this one!

 

Mods !

 

Take out these thugs!

 

Oh wait the Mod named hurl is one of the Hive!

 

No punishment will be given!

 

Carry on.... lol

 

Actually I resigned