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Posted
Taijuan Walker is a young controllable pitcher and was a top pitching prospect for a very long time, he's also having a pretty decent year, something seemed to click after a rough start and he's been excellent ever since. This is why, like RJF has said, he's not getting traded any time soon. When teams start selling off their main assets they don't go for the 22 year old with a lot of potential and under team control.

 

Ironically, that last sentence also applies to Daniel Norris perfectly.

 

Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, other top pitching prospects have been moved in recent years.... not out of the question the Mariners will move him. All i said is he is the better target instead of Happ

 

this board talking about EE for strasburg (thehurl), of course less control on strasburg

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Shelby Miller, Trevor Bauer, other top pitching prospects have been moved in recent years.... not out of the question the Mariners will move him. All i said is he is the better target instead of Happ

 

this board talking about EE for strasburg (thehurl), of course less control on strasburg

 

There is nothing similar about Walker and Strasburg. SS is an established ace with little control left.

Posted (edited)
What about Hoffman, Boyd, Nay to the Indians for Carrasco?. He's signed through 2018 and would prevent us from losing our '16 1st round pick to a potential free agent signing. Edited by abola2121
Posted
What about Hoffman, Boyd, Nay to the Indians for Carrasco. He's signed through 2018 and would save us from losing a 1st round pick for an overpriced free agent.

 

Indians say no.

Posted
How many more "Insert random young hopeful arm prospect" stud threads must we endure before we are able to get a deal done to actually bolster this staff? So many want to hang on to every marginal prospect we have as if they a lock to be the next Archer. Aside from Stro, who has started 20 gms in MLB and is far from proven, there is no prospect/ML we should be afraid to consider moving to make the right deal for a run this year. I don't like how AA has managed Pompey and Boyd this season but that doesn't change the reality that these are very likely marginal assets.
Old-Timey Member
Posted
How many more "Insert random young hopeful arm prospect" stud threads must we endure before we are able to get a deal done to actually bolster this staff? So many want to hang on to every marginal prospect we have as if they a lock to be the next Archer. Aside from Stro, who has started 20 gms in MLB and is far from proven, there is no prospect/ML we should be afraid to consider moving to make the right deal for a run this year. I don't like how AA has managed Pompey and Boyd this season but that doesn't change the reality that these are very likely marginal assets.

 

Wow sss and they're marginal. Especially Pompey. If all we need is a few innings and less then a 100 major league at bats to figure out a player then color me surprised.

Posted
Wow sss and they're marginal. Especially Pompey. If all we need is a few innings and less then a 100 major league at bats to figure out a player then color me surprised.

 

 

Fair. Who says they are more than that? The point is we don't know. We have more information on veteran targets. In the case of Pompey I've read a lot of the scouting reports and saw what I saw. Like the kid and want him to succeed but it's just my opinion he is a marginal asset. I would like to be wrong. His swing is lllloooonnnngggg.

Posted
I'm sorry, but I just see regression

 

wRC+ vs. LHP

 

2011 - 109

2012 - 103

2013 - 89

2014 - 55

2015 - 34

 

He has value and we could use another LH bat in the lineup. I'd love to have his defense and superior WWE knowledge on this team - I'm just not giving up our top assets to get him when he's a platoon guy.

 

That's not regression. "Getting worse" isn't the same as regression.

 

When a player "regresses" they return to the average state. His skill against lefties is getting worse. Is that real??

 

What Gordie is saying is that the 0.34 is not real and his skill will regress to the average value, 0.85 or whatever it is.

 

If you hit 50 homeruns, 5 years in a row, then hit 10.. you are not regressing.

 

The next year when you hit 40, is the regression. If you hit below the mean you can "regress" back to it.

Posted
How many more "Insert random young hopeful arm prospect" stud threads must we endure before we are able to get a deal done to actually bolster this staff? So many want to hang on to every marginal prospect we have as if they a lock to be the next Archer. Aside from Stro, who has started 20 gms in MLB and is far from proven, there is no prospect/ML we should be afraid to consider moving to make the right deal for a run this year. I don't like how AA has managed Pompey and Boyd this season but that doesn't change the reality that these are very likely marginal assets.

 

If the Jays are ever going to become a good team they need to develop their own talent, we can't sell the farm every time we get in a race. We're not the Dodgers

Old-Timey Member
Posted
If the Jays are ever going to become a good team they need to develop their own talent, we can't sell the farm every time we get in a race. We're not the Dodgers

 

Bingo.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
If the Jays are ever going to become a good team they need to develop their own talent, we can't sell the farm every time we get in a race. We're not the Dodgers

 

Agreed.

 

The problem is if you want to win this season and next season, then that's not feasible. They need to add, and the only way to add in July is by trading prospects.

Posted
Agreed.

 

The problem is if you want to win this season and next season, then that's not feasible. They need to add, and the only way to add in July is by trading prospects.

 

We're only one game out we could win this year and there's a lot of good free agent pitchers available next year.

Posted
We're only one game out we could win this year and there's a lot of good free agent pitchers available next year.

 

 

Plus we still have wild cards options out there who could still help this year. Shanchez ( healthly) Norris Castro tepera and maybe the Stro show! Even Boyd might be a option for the pen!

 

Heck then long shots Durbont wolf and Francis Omg I know but since being moved to starter his numbers have improved a lot, wierd but true, look it up ! :)

Old-Timey Member
Posted
If the Jays are ever going to become a good team they need to develop their own talent, we can't sell the farm every time we get in a race. We're not the Dodgers

 

We're never in a race.

Posted

I don't know what the right trade is, but this team clearly needs a SP and soon.

 

If this team fails to make the playoffs with this offense, it will be an epic embarassment.

 

They can't keep throwing s*** at the wall and hoping it sticks in a playoff run.

 

I don't exactly want to trade our best prospects either, but in this case you do it.

 

Hamels would be my #1 choice due to having him beyond this year, plus you have Buerhle, Dickey, Navarro and Romero???? off the books going into next year.

Posted

Group 1:

Hoffman, Norris, Castro, Alford

 

Group 2:

Pompey, Pentecost, Reid Foley, Urena, Labourt, Boyd, Tellez, Lugo, Tirado

 

Group 3:

2015 Draft: Harris, Singer, Maese, Wise

 

I'm sure I am forgetting other notables. Is it possible to get a front line starter without tapping into group #1 and possibly using group #3 as PTBNL?

 

My first choice is Hamels

 

we will overpay no matter what so I'd rather lock in yrs if we are depleting the farm.

 

Realistically, I'd consider utilizing one group #1 guy but anymore would be tough.

 

The Dickey trade used two clear group #1s.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Group 1:

Hoffman, Norris, Castro, Alford

 

Group 2:

Pompey, Pentecost, Reid Foley, Urena, Labourt, Boyd, Tellez, Lugo, Tirado

 

Group 3:

2015 Draft: Harris, Singer, Maese, Wise

 

I'm sure I am forgetting other notables. Is it possible to get a front line starter without tapping into group #1 and possibly using group #3 as PTBNL?

 

My first choice is Hamels

 

we will overpay no matter what so I'd rather lock in yrs if we are depleting the farm.

 

Realistically, I'd consider utilizing one group #1 guy but anymore would be tough.

 

The Dickey trade used two clear group #1s.

 

you can't trade anyone from group 3 for a year. Actually you can but they will be "player to be named" until a year of the day they were drafted passes

Old-Timey Member
Posted
you can't trade anyone from group 3 for a year. Actually you can but they will be "player to be named" until a year of the day they were drafted passes

 

Nope. after World Series now

Posted

Hoffman, Norris and Castro are potential near term cost savers.

 

Maybe 2/3 amount to something.

We dont know, but you cant part with two of these three.

 

Alford I'd be afraid because we havent seen enough.

 

Pompey is the guy with valuation power I'd take my chances on.

 

The rest to me are either too far off or depth deal guys at this point. I'm not going to suggest I can predict the future. Just my gut.

Posted

One of Hoffman, Castro and Norris + Pompey is at least what it takes to get Hamels IMO.

 

Similar to the Dickey and Miami trades, the inherent value includes prevention.

 

Prevention is the opposite of opportunity cost. Or the conservative assumption that a division rival has the ability to make a similar trade.

 

Prevention is a world where value and dollars do not exist. Value is a sunk assumption.

 

In this case, Hamels carries the most prevention risk.

 

Hamels on another AL East roster for three years carries consideration just like his prospect and monetary cost.

 

For Samardijiza and Cueto, the only prevention assumption is 2015.

 

The Dickey trade sucked. But in my world of prevention I don't view the Miami trade as a major loss. Maybe just a minor one.

 

Consider my model.

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