Around Baseball 2015

[Boxcar]

Pompey could bust. I mean I'm not expecting it the way BTS is but it would be ridiculous not to account for the possiblity.

 

But he's a Blue Jay.

[KingKat]

But he's a Blue Jay.

 

Not helping.

[THANOS]

Pompey was awarded a minor league gold glove in CF. All the scouting reports rave about his defense. I have seem him play CF in AA myself and I can tell you that he sure as hell passes the eye test too. You're fabricating a whole new reality here based on a liberal interpretation of what happened on the MLB club this year.

 

This. People here are putting way too much stock into the small sample size in Toronto last year. Instead, they should look at the mean of his minors career and regress expectations to slightly less than that for what to expect in 2016. Pompey historically walks around 10% of the time and strikes out 13-17%, which are both signs of a pretty patient hitter. His approach improved a lot in 2015 from AA-AAA and I would expect that to continue next year, since it's not a dramatic jump from his career norms.

 

I don't think a 275/360/420 slash line (possibly higher if the power plays up to his norms) is unreasonable to expect in 2016. I'll take the OBP, base running, speed, and great defense (as you illustrated) over Revere any day.

[Brownie19]

Pompey could bust. I mean I'm not expecting it the way BTS is but it would be ridiculous not to account for the possiblity.

 

And Chapman could blow out his arm...

[Brownie19]

This discussion on whether Pompey can play CF are fascinating. I never realised there was so much doubt about it.

[King]

This. People here are putting way too much stock into the small sample size in Toronto last year. Instead, they should look at the mean of his minors career and regress expectations to slightly less than that for what to expect in 2016. Pompey historically walks around 10% of the time and strikes out 13-17%, which are both signs of a pretty patient hitter. His approach improved a lot in 2015 from AA-AAA and I would expect that to continue next year, since it's not a dramatic jump from his career norms.

 

I don't think a 275/360/420 slash line (possibly higher if the power plays up to his norms) is unreasonable to expect in 2016. I'll take the OBP, base running, speed, and great defense (as you illustrated) over Revere any day.

 

If Pompey hit 275/360/420 with above average defense in CF and above average base running at 23 years old, that would be like a superstar player lol. I don't think thats reasonable to project him to hit like that.

 

For reference, in his career he's hitting .226/.295/.391 and he's projected to hit .261/.321/.386.

[Laika]

This seems like a moot point, as we're not gettin Chapman for just Pompey anyway.

 

Why not? Seems reasonable.

 

This is baseball 2015. Chapman might be a boss but he's also an RP making a lot of money for one year.

[Frenchsoup]

Pompey was awarded a minor league gold glove in CF. All the scouting reports rave about his defense. I have seem him play CF in AA myself and I can tell you that he sure as hell passes the eye test too. You're fabricating a whole new reality here based on a liberal interpretation of what happened on the MLB club this year.

 

It was very hard to watch him play. The stuff at the plate didn't bother me as much, as he had to adjust to MLB pitching and i think he will adjust pretty well. Now for being a minor league gold glover, he played scared, didn't take charge, and instead of gliding back for balls he would do a weird backpedal that left him unbalanced and caused him to miss a couple balls that were very catch-able. I think he will be a solid 2-3 WAR player but the defense will be average, and he'll be stuck in left.

[Laika]

It was very hard to watch him play. The stuff at the plate didn't bother me as much, as he had to adjust to MLB pitching and i think he will adjust pretty well. Now for being a minor league gold glover, he played scared, didn't take charge, and instead of gliding back for balls he would do a weird backpedal that left him unbalanced and caused him to miss a couple balls that were very catch-able. I think he will be a solid 2-3 WAR player but the defense will be average, and he'll be stuck in left.

 

You saw a very tiny sample from when he clearly wasn't ready for the big leagues. Simmer down, Frenchy.

[THANOS]

If Pompey hit 275/360/420 with above average defense in CF and above average base running at 23 years old, that would be like a superstar player lol. I don't think thats reasonable to project him to hit like that.

 

For reference, in his career he's hitting .226/.295/.391 and he's projected to hit .261/.321/.386.

 

I think he's much better than that just looking at his career norms, I don't think the drop-off will be that substantial next year. I can agree that the SLG and AVG could possibly be that low, but OBP should be much higher. I can't see it being lower than 340 with not only his new approach taken into account, but his career norms as well.

[King]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 46s47 seconds ago

Sources: Free-agent outfielder Colby Rasmus will accept qualifying offer and return to the Astros for one year, $15.8 million. Story coming.

[Jimcanuck]

I think he's much better than that just looking at his career norms, I don't think the drop-off will be that substantial next year. I can agree that the SLG and AVG could possibly be that low, but OBP should be much higher. I can't see it being lower than 340 with not only his new approach taking into account, but his career norms as well.

 

i had .320 - .330 OBP for Pompey, as you may recall from earlier posts

 

keep in mind, Travis was .361 last year playing out of his mind and way beyond expectations. a .360 OBP from Pompey would be a similar surprise

[Boxcar]

Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal 46s47 seconds ago

Sources: Free-agent outfielder Colby Rasmus will accept qualifying offer and return to the Astros for one year, $15.8 million. Story coming.

 

Score one for me in the FAP contest!

[THANOS]

i had .320 - .330 OBP for Pompey, as you may recall from earlier posts

 

keep in mind, Travis was .361 last year playing out of his mind and way beyond expectations. a .360 OBP from Pompey would be a similar surprise

 

Pompey's new approach could actually be better than Travis'. Averaging a OBP of 400 across AA and AAA since his 2nd demotion and providing a BB% of 12 is a pretty significant change from his Toronto numbers and even better than his career norms. I think the OBP will be much higher than what Steamer suggests.

[Jimcanuck]

Pompey's new approach could actually be better than Travis'. Averaging a OBP of 400 across AA and AAA since his 2nd demotion and providing a BB% of 12 is a pretty significant change from his Toronto numbers and even better than his career norms. I think the OBP will be much higher than what Steamer suggests.

 

its possible but not a realistic prediction

[flafson]

Is this the first ever accepted qualifying offer?

 

Sure is.

[BTS]

This is probably not what Houston wanted.

[GreekFatAss]

This is probably not what Houston wanted.

 

Maybe Houston shouldn't of been greedy for an extra draft picks and simply not qualified him.

[Spanky99]

I think he's much better than that just looking at his career norms, I don't think the drop-off will be that substantial next year. I can agree that the SLG and AVG could possibly be that low, but OBP should be much higher. I can't see it being lower than 340 with not only his new approach taken into account, but his career norms as well.

 

Attrition to the MLB is usually pretty substantial, your numbers are fairly high for a rookie, just saying...

 

P.S. I really loved his approach in the show, so his cup of coffee last year, doesn't mean s***. Too many people jumped to conclusions, when he really hasn't had a chance yet, both offensively and defensively.

[Spanky99]

Score one for me in the FAP contest!

 

Damn, I thought about it, but ultimately thought he'd sign in KC.

[closetjaysfan]

Donaldson won the silver slugger... I for one am SHOCKED! SHOCKED!

[Spanky99]

Pompey's new approach could actually be better than Travis'. Averaging a OBP of 400 across AA and AAA since his 2nd demotion and providing a BB% of 12 is a pretty significant change from his Toronto numbers and even better than his career norms. I think the OBP will be much higher than what Steamer suggests.

 

Is there a new approach, or is this just a guess? I haven't heard of it, help me out man, I just think s*** clicked again after suffering an early demotion.

[Spanky99]

Is this the first ever accepted qualifying offer?

 

Yup, incoming Estrada acceptance pending, lol.

 

I figured Colby would be the one to break the trend, he simply doesn't give a f***. Good for him.

[Spanky99]

Maybe Houston shouldn't of been greedy for an extra draft picks and simply not qualified him.

 

Why, he's worth more than a QO?

[Orgfiller]

Score one for me in the FAP contest!

 

That's two for me with a player accepting the QO and Rasmus back to Houston.

[Frenchsoup]

Why, he's worth more than a QO?

 

He probably can't play a quality CF anymore and is a platoon bat who strikes out a ton. I'd want that money for something else if I was them.

[Orgfiller]

This is probably not what Houston wanted.

 

Why not? Rasmus is coming off 2.8 fWAR, for some reason the projections hate his hitting even though he has three consecutive years at 104 wRC+ or above. He can easily provide ~2+ WAR and it's a nice value signing.

[L54]

Why not? Rasmus is coming off 2.8 fWAR, for some reason the projections hate his hitting even though he has three consecutive years at 104 wRC+ or above. He can easily provide ~2+ WAR and it's a nice value signing.

 

I'm sure when they offered it their intentions were him declining.

[jdmo]

I believe it's time for this:

 

[Spanky99]

He probably can't play a quality CF anymore and is a platoon bat who strikes out a ton. I'd want that money for something else if I was them.

 

That wasn't my point? Like, at all. Yet he can play CF in a pinch and crushes the ball when he's on. He'll be worth the QO, but like you said, and I know, I don't think they expected this at all.