Blue Jays kicking tires on Shields

[ElNik2013]

For the 2nd time, Jenkins wasn't an AA draftee. On the other hand, at least he has been developed into a possible long reliever.

[Stangstag]

For the 2nd time, Jenkins wasn't an AA draftee. On the other hand, at least he has been developed into a possible long reliever.

 

Ah ok my bad.

[Angrioter]

Asher Wocj is a useful piece.

[RealAccountant]

The fact that Shields hasn't signed yet tells me there is at least more than 1 team involved.

[Angrioter]

Usefull for what? A 26 years old struggling to stick at AAA isn't likely to amount to anything in the majors.

 

7K and -3BB.

 

I saw him pitching at Dominican winter ball and he looked pretty good. Long-RP guy in the near future.

[King]

gg

 

Jon Morosi ‏@jonmorosi 43s43 seconds ago

Source: #Padres' most recent offer to James Shields was four years and between $72 million and $80 million.

[TwistedLogic]

Almost no chance that the Jays would be able to beat that offer vs San Diego.

[Abomination]

Almost no chance that the Jays would be able to beat that offer vs San Diego.

 

Unless someone else has bid quite a bit more, it seems weird that he'd be having to think about it so long if that kind of offer really is on the table at this point. I guess we'll find out in the next day or so.

[jayswin11]

Almost no chance that the Jays would be able to beat that offer vs San Diego.

 

I don't think it likely but maybe the Jays step up and offer the 5th year like they did Martin and backload it. I would also offer Shields opt out clauses after every season. Something like this.

 

2015 -10 mil

2016- 20 mil (basically covered by Buehrle leaving)

2017- 20mil

2018- 25 mil

2019- 25 mil

[TwistedLogic]

Unless someone else has bid quite a bit more, it seems weird that he'd be having to think about it so long if that kind of offer really is on the table at this point. I guess we'll find out in the next day or so.

 

It's not entirely weird. He could be weighing the options of a) playing in his home town and great weather of San Diego, or playing for his long time coach Joe Maddon, and the potential novelty of breaking the world series drought in Chicago.

 

I don't think it likely but maybe the Jays step up and offer the 5th year like they did Martin and backload it. I would also offer Shields opt out clauses after every season. Something like this.

 

Wow, that's actually an incredibly interesting clause. I wonder if any teams out there have thought of it, and how appealing it might be for him. A 4 or 5 year deal with an opt-out after every season would be perfect for a team like the Jays signing a guy like Shields.

[Angrioter]

Shields 4/80M = Ubaldo 4/50M

[jayswin11]

 

 

 

Wow, that's actually an incredibly interesting clause. I wonder if any teams out there have thought of it, and how appealing it might be for him. A 4 or 5 year deal with an opt-out after every season would be perfect for a team like the Jays signing a guy like Shields.

 

Exactly I thought it would be perfect for the Jays, especially back loading it. Realistically you almost hope he opts out after year one or two. From his perspective if he doesn't like playing in Toronto he can get out often 1 year, if after Bautista and EE's contracts are up he can opt out if he doesn't think the jays are competitive, but it also offers him the $$$ and years ifs long term deal

[G-Snarls]

How good are the Padres going to be this year if they get him? They've sure picked up some "names" but will they actually be good?

[BTS]

How good are the Padres going to be this year if they get him? They've sure picked up some "names" but will they actually be good?

 

Not good IMO. They're going to be bad at C, 1B, SS, 3B and possibly 2B.

[Laika]

How good are the Padres going to be this year if they get him? They've sure picked up some "names" but will they actually be good?

 

no

 

maybe .500

[jays_fever]

4 years at 20 per year to play in a beautiful ball park and city, take it

[GD]

Not good IMO. They're going to be bad at C, 1B, SS, 3B and possibly 2B.

 

Norris is fine at C. Alonso is ok.

 

Still a .500 or so team tho lol

[BTS]

Norris is fine at C. Alonso is ok.

 

Still a .500 or so team tho lol

 

This seems unlikely to me. Not really buying Norris in a non-platoon role either.

[TheHurl]

no

 

maybe .500

 

One of the best "under" bets this year for sure. I figure 85.5 or 86.5 will be the number

[xposbrad]

Not good IMO. They're going to be bad at C, 1B, SS, 3B and possibly 2B.

 

Don't they have Norris at C? He should be improving still too. Alonso had a below avg year last year, but he's still passable at 1b. Gyorko should give them ~2 WAR at 2b, which is probably better than what the Jays will throw out there. 3B/SS could be their only real weaknesses but Middlebrooks is still only 26. San Diego isn't all that bad, they have guys like Myers who can turn it around and are still young. They should have an exciting team if they sign Shields.

[Angrioter]

Not good IMO. They're going to be bad at C, 1B, SS, 3B and possibly 2B.

 

Gyorko isn't that bad (~3Wins)

[BTS]

Gyorko isn't that bad (~3Wins)

 

The guy who just dropped a replacement-level season is a 3-win player?

[G-Snarls]

4 years at 20 per year to play in a beautiful ball park and city, take it

 

Exactly. Come on...

[Stangstag]

Lets not forget that they have a huge park and no real center fielder. Their outfield defense is atrocious.

[Spanky99]

I don't think it likely but maybe the Jays step up and offer the 5th year like they did Martin and backload it. I would also offer Shields opt out clauses after every season. Something like this.

 

2015 -10 mil

2016- 20 mil (basically covered by Buehrle leaving)

2017- 20mil

2018- 25 mil

2019- 25 mil

 

 

Eeeew...5 years and a 100 million for a 33 year old pitcher? PASS!

 

Exactly I thought it would be perfect for the Jays, especially back loading it. Realistically you almost hope he opts out after year one or two. From his perspective if he doesn't like playing in Toronto he can get out often 1 year, if after Bautista and EE's contracts are up he can opt out if he doesn't think the jays are competitive, but it also offers him the $$$ and years ifs long term deal

 

Realistically, he'd never opt out of a 100 million dollar contract that's backloaded, this line of thinking is absurd.

[Spanky99]

4 years at 20 per year to play in a beautiful ball park and city, take it

 

Yup, no brainer, he lives out west to boot.

[Laika]

Cotillo is saying that it's done now, pending physical. Four years for between 72M and 78M.

Padres lose pick #13 for signing him, so if you want to translate total costs to dollars, say the contract is for 82M to 88M (I think that pick is worth around 10 million....)

 

He projects for 3.0, 2.5, 2.0, and 1.5 WAR in the next four years. 9.0 total.

 

He would have been a 1.5 win upgrade over Toronto's #5 SP (if you call that #5 SP Daniel Norris pitching 150 innings as projected by Steamer). The upgrade probably would have been a bit higher than that though because SP depth is more fluid than that and there is a trickle down effect. You could call it 2 wins right now for ~20M. There are cheaper ways to add two wins!

[Key22]

I agree John - I like Shields for his innings but it's a LOT of money for a declining number 3 starter. Then again maybe this is just the going rate for number 3 starters - see Mark Beurhle. It's not the end of the world to have Sanchez in the pen - a lot of good Jays pitchers started in the pen. It would have been nice to have Sanchez and Norris as the 6-7 guys with Cecil/Loup in the 8th and some kind of quality closer. You can kind of pick the spots for the relievers to gain success. I really hope Sanchez and Norris are the two best pitchers on the team in the spring (with no one stinking it up) - make the decisions as hard as possible.

 

I am actually excited about the starting pitching talent that seems to be coming soon. 2016 and 2017 look real good.

[RealAccountant]

Eeeew...5 years and a 100 million for a 33 year old pitcher? PASS!

 

 

 

Realistically, he'd never opt out of a 100 million dollar contract that's backloaded, this line of thinking is absurd.

 

Let's just trade two top 10 prospects for a medicare pitcher instead

[GD]

Cotillo is a hack, so let's wait for Kenny Ken or something