Blue Jays kicking tires on Shields

[Dr. Dinger]

Meh, I'd give him the NTC. It's not like he'll be dying to stay here if it's just him, Reyes and Martin.

[L54]

You could even make a case for the Jays signing him at 4/80 because this team stands to gain the most with this acquisition. Is it a steep price? Perhaps but if an extra 5-10M over the duration is what it takes to put this team over the top so be it. Also in retrospect everyone expected 5/100 as a sure thing so they got him now with a year less on the term.

 

It really comes down to whether or not the front office view him as a guy who can still put up 3 win seasons over that contract. He's been a 3.5+ fWAR guy for the last 8 years save for 2010 with the Rays. Biggest concern obviously is the amount of miles on that arm.

 

Sometimes, paying the guy who seems to be a lock can be a better long term decision than trying to find the next guy who is undervalued. Shields is who he is- a sexier MB (I think NJH said this).

[L54]

Meh, I'd give him the NTC. It's not like he'll be dying to stay here if it's just him, Reyes and Martin.

 

And Donaldson!

[reedjohnsonfan]

I think a lot of teams would feel comfortable at 4/70 for him. 17.5M AAV for a 3 win pitcher is justifiable. Quick math is 9 wins @ 7M = 63M not accounting for rising salaries, so it's probably a wash in terms of value. I'm not an expert, but those 3 wins depending where you are on the win curve should be more valued by a team that's close to the playoffs.

 

Essentially, he's not coming to TO on a discount. He's coming to TO if they offer him the most. 4/75 is probably the least amount that he would end up in Toronto for as I really don't think he would have a problem signing for 4/70 today if he wanted to. Just depends how long the market holds out.

 

That is fair and at this point it seems like a given he will settle for less than the 5/100+ most were predicting. I would be outbidding every team with a back-loaded deal if that's the case. They are in win now mode, having 3 of the most reliable pitchers would be a huge asset.

[NorthOf49]

I'm definitely interested in Shields. A four-year deal would end before our young pitching gets expensive and Buehrle's pact ends after this year which frees up room. You can also structure EE and Bautista extensions to heavily weight 2019, at which point Shields and Reyes will be off the payroll. They could buy out Reyes at $4M for 2018 too if he goes downhill. I think there's enough flexibility to do something here.

[ScientificReason]

I'm definitely interested in Shields. A four-year deal would end before our young pitching gets expensive and Buehrle's pact ends after this year which frees up room. You can also structure EE and Bautista extensions to heavily weight 2019, at which point Shields and Reyes will be off the payroll. They could buy out Reyes at $4M for 2018 too if he goes downhill. I think there's enough flexibility to do something here.

 

There is, but I have little faith in ownership to do what is necessary to make the Jays legit contenders, they go almost all the way but never go all the way. Yes I am salty lol.

[Zaun of the Dead]

Yeah that's why I don't see them signing Shields. They wanna win but they don't want to win all that bad.

[KingKat]

I'm definitely interested in Shields. A four-year deal would end before our young pitching gets expensive and Buehrle's pact ends after this year which frees up room. You can also structure EE and Bautista extensions to heavily weight 2019, at which point Shields and Reyes will be off the payroll. They could buy out Reyes at $4M for 2018 too if he goes downhill. I think there's enough flexibility to do something here.

 

"Always in motion is the future." - Yoda

 

[TheHurl]

I'm definitely interested in Shields. A four-year deal would end before our young pitching gets expensive and Buehrle's pact ends after this year which frees up room. You can also structure EE and Bautista extensions to heavily weight 2019, at which point Shields and Reyes will be off the payroll. They could buy out Reyes at $4M for 2018 too if he goes downhill. I think there's enough flexibility to do something here.

 

Back end loading contracts works for teams that don't mind trading players and hurting their fanbase (also known as teams that don't have much of a fanbase). Jays have never been that team. I think Lawrie is the biggest star they have traded following a winning season since the McGriff deal (maybe Shawn Green I can't remember our record in 99)

[BTS]

It feels like every time a player's value drops by tens of millions from his perceived market value, the team that gets him on a perceived bargain deal end up regretting it. Swisher, Bourn, Ubaldo come to mind. Shields' value, based on what we know, should be in the 5/100 range. Why isn't it?

[BTS]

Is that Shields market value? Or actual value he would produce in 5 years? I'd take the under on the latter.

 

Market value.

[Abomination]

I'd be interested in hearing his reasoning too. Velocity has stayed consistent. Seems about as close to a sure thing as you can get.

 

Having 3 guys who are almost a lock to give you 200 quality innings each seems like a pretty good idea.

 

His velocity has actually been trending upward slowly (similar to Cliff Lee).

[ScientificReason]

IF we don't make the playoffs this year I think AA and gibbons are gone anyway.

[Abomination]

The other thing to consider regarding Shields, is that if he can't find a multi-year deal he likes, maybe he'd be willing to take a higher cost one year deal and try again next winter (with the landscape being stacked next winter, not sure how smart that would be). If he did do this, we've already lost our 1st round pick, so it would be easier for us to sign him than some of the other teams.

[BTS]

The other thing to consider regarding Shields, is that if he can't find a multi-year deal he likes, maybe he'd be willing to take a higher cost one year deal and try again next winter (with the landscape being stacked next winter, not sure how smart that would be). If he did do this, we've already lost our 1st round pick, so it would be easier for us to sign him than some of the other teams.

 

I have a hard time seeing him try again next year. 33 years old, just turned in an excellent season, his 8th in a row with 200 IP. He's also the 3rd best starter available on the market this year, whereas next year's is stacked. The stars should be aligned for a big pay day.

[KingKat]

The other thing to consider regarding Shields, is that if he can't find a multi-year deal he likes, maybe he'd be willing to take a higher cost one year deal and try again next winter (with the landscape being stacked next winter, not sure how smart that would be). If he did do this, we've already lost our 1st round pick, so it would be easier for us to sign him than some of the other teams.

 

That doesn't really work for the Jays though. All indications are that the Jays can only offer something heavily backloaded with possibly as little a 5M in the first year. If he's willing to take a one year deal, he can surely get a better deal then that playing in a more pitching friendly environment to boot.

[NorthOf49]

Pretty weird that in 2014 at 32 years old, James Shields had the highest velocity of his career, but the lowest SwStr% of his career.

He generated less whiffs on his change and threw it at a career-low frequency. For such a consistent pitcher, he changes his pitch mix a fair bit.

 

Would you sign Shields at 4/76?

[Spanky99]

And Stroman! And Norris! And Pompey! And Travis!

 

Osuna man, I am disappoint?!

[Abomination]

I have a hard time seeing him try again next year. 33 years old, just turned in an excellent season, his 8th in a row with 200 IP. He's also the 3rd best starter available on the market this year, whereas next year's is stacked. The stars should be aligned for a big pay day.

 

Yeah, the stars definitely were aligned. However, it's now only two weeks before spring training, and it seems like teams that DO have some flexibility are intent to hold onto it for now and go after Moncada, etc. It'll be interesting to see what happens, but I think at this point in the spring, a 1 year deal (and probably a firing of his agent) have to at least be considered.

[Abomination]

That doesn't really work for the Jays though. All indications are that the Jays can only offer something heavily backloaded with possibly as little a 5M in the first year. If he's willing to take a one year deal, he can surely get a better deal then that playing in a more pitching friendly environment to boot.

 

Maybe they could defer money to do it. Say 3M this year, and then 3M each of the following 6 years. It wouldn't cripple us in future years, and would still probably work out to ~17M or 18M equivalent for Shields after taking inflation into account. There's always ways to work it out.

[KingKat]

Maybe they could defer money to do it. Say 3M this year, and then 3M each of the following 6 years. It wouldn't cripple us in future years, and would still probably work out to ~17M or 18M equivalent for Shields after taking inflation into account. There's always ways to work it out.

 

 

He's have to be pretty desperate but then again maybe he is desperate. Maybe the market just wasn't friendly to free agents this year with not enough teams alloting enough space in the budgets. Scherzer going to the Nats on a weirdly structured deal kind of suggests that Boras had to a) call in a favor and get creative to land Scherzer what he should be worth.

[Laika]

James Shields is a damn good pitcher, and he'd likely be our best pitcher. I really don't give even a tiny f*** about our 2018 payroll -- if we don't win this year or next, it's all going to be torn down anyway.

 

Giving a 33 year old pitcher the type of money and years that it would likely take to lure him to Toronto strikes me as, almost categorically, a bad idea.

 

Obviously there's some price where it makes sense.

[jays76]

That doesn't really work for the Jays though. All indications are that the Jays can only offer something heavily backloaded with possibly as little a 5M in the first year. If he's willing to take a one year deal, he can surely get a better deal then that playing in a more pitching friendly environment to boot.

 

I think they have closer to 10M if the payroll is going up to 140M this year plus the Navarro trade option. We have to remember too these payroll limitations are self imposed by Rogers, they could easily say due to extenuating circumstances and this opportunity to win we're going to raise the payroll an extra 5-10M for this year. Next year Buerhle, Romero, Izturis are gone (30.5M) and you can potentially factor in Dickey (12.5M) if he has a bad year and trends downward. They will definitely have a little flexibility next yr so there not exactly in the worst spot going forward..

[baseballsss]

I think a lot of you are forgetting he has already turned down a deal worth more then 100mil(assuming that is true). Money isn't what he is looking for. He wants to play some where he likes i'm assuming. My guess Toronto isn't high on his list.

[fireballW]

People really believe this has any chance of happening, whatsoever? AA has all but squashed this idea already, not to mention that, as he continuously says, if the Jays are linked to a player repeatedly in the media, it's most likely fabricated. I'd be completely shocked. I know it is quiet these days and boring, but this rumor hardly deserves to be discussed.

[jays76]

Giving a 33 year old pitcher the type of money and years that it would likely take to lure him to Toronto strikes me as, almost categorically, a bad idea.

 

Obviously there's some price where it makes sense.

 

In sheer value business wise you might be correct in regards to his contract individually but you also have to factor in the additional assets he brings to the team giving stability to our rotation, enhancing the pen by eating so many innings, allowing more of a buffer for Norris/Sanchez to properly acclimate, and most importantly a legitimate shot to win a WS over the next few seasons.

[L54]

People really believe this has any chance of happening, whatsoever? AA has all but squashed this idea already, not to mention that, as he continuously says, if the Jays are linked to a player repeatedly in the media, it's most likely fabricated. I'd be completely shocked. I know it is quiet these days and boring, but this rumor hardly deserves to be discussed.

 

What do you suggest discussing on February 6th? This is part of being a fan, and it's fun to bounce ideas and opinions off of other fans who actually know what they're talking about. It creates for great dialogue. I'd much rather be discussing James Shields here, than asking my casual fan friends what they think. Because I know their answers.

[jays76]

People really believe this has any chance of happening, whatsoever? AA has all but squashed this idea already, not to mention that, as he continuously says, if the Jays are linked to a player repeatedly in the media, it's most likely fabricated. I'd be completely shocked. I know it is quiet these days and boring, but this rumor hardly deserves to be discussed.

 

You're probably right but if there's any hope AA can get this done he should. Him and Beeston are on their last ride together so they might as well go balls out, along with the other reasons that make sense of course. The best part of the State Of The Franchise was when Gibby said James Shields was what the pitching staff needed and the crowd went insane, if that wasn't a message to the FO than I don't know what is.

[KingKat]

I think they have closer to 10M if the payroll is going up to 140M this year plus the Navarro trade option. We have to remember too these payroll limitations are self imposed by Rogers, they could easily say due to extenuating circumstances and this opportunity to win we're going to raise the payroll an extra 5-10M for this year. Next year Buerhle, Romero, Izturis are gone (30.5M) and you can potentially factor in Dickey (12.5M) if he has a bad year and trends downward. They will definitely have a little flexibility next yr so there not exactly in the worst spot going forward..

 

I think it might be safe to assume that the window on trading Navarro has closed at this point.

[KingKat]

People really believe this has any chance of happening, whatsoever?

 

No, not really but as long as he's still theoretically available, it's only natural to speculate.