John Sickels: Blue Jays top-20 prospects

[Laika]

The big concern for me is command. His stuff is so good that I buy him being able to stick as a starter inducing a ton of groundballs and striking out 6/9. It only works if he stops walking people though, and that's a big stretch given his minor league track record.

 

Right. Obviously he needs to improve. Nobody should think he can translate as is.

[BTS]

I can't see him succeeding as a SP with that garbage walk rate. I hope I'm wrong but I doubt it.

 

This year will be very interesting for him. There's just a lot of things going on. His stuff looks amazing, and it's causing people to attach a lot of narratives to a 30-inning performance that yielded good results, but also came with a lot of red flags, but not quite the same ones we expected to see given his stuff and minor league track record.

[BTS]

It's actually kind of amazing how similar Sanchez is to this guy:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10304&position=P

[Chappy]

This year will be very interesting for him. There's just a lot of things going on. His stuff looks amazing, and it's causing people to attach a lot of narratives to a 30-inning performance that yielded good results, but also came with a lot of red flags, but not quite the same ones we expected to see given his stuff and minor league track record.

 

Given what this team is trying to achieve in the short term, Sanchez's horrid command issues, and his strong showing out of the pen last season, I strongly think he breaks camp out of the pen. Maybe they stretch him out during the spring for "show" and insurance, but I think they already have him set to be a late innings arm in the short term.

[GD]

It's actually kind of amazing how similar Sanchez is to this guy:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10304&position=P

 

He was just as highly regarded coming up.

[Angrioter]

This year will be very interesting for him. There's just a lot of things going on. His stuff looks amazing, and it's causing people to attach a lot of narratives to a 30-inning performance that yielded good results, but also came with a lot of red flags, but not quite the same ones we expected to see given his stuff and minor league track record.

Sanchize is unable to pitch for +5 innings.

[BTS]

He was just as highly regarded coming up.

 

Yeah. Big hype, big stuff that has never quite played as well as you'd expect, with a lot of the same problems and results.

[GD]

Yeah. Big hype, big stuff that has never quite played as well as you'd expect, with a lot of the same problems and results.

 

Not exactly great precedent.

[ElNik2013]

Descalifani

Nicolino

Escobar

Marisnick

 

For Tulo.Sign Cano.Do not trade Gomes

 

Pompey

Cano

Bautista

Donaldson

Tulo

Encarnacion

Martin

Gomes

Saunders

 

d'Arnaud

Hech

Gose

Smoak

 

Stroman

Hutch

Alvarez

Syndargaard

Norris

Sanchez

 

Probably under 100M.

 

f***!

 

 

 

Plus a likely top 5 pick in both 2014 and the upcoming draft since the team would've sucked big time. Also, Bautista would've likely asked for a trade so you should add a couple of top prospects to the mix.

 

On the other hand, the owners wouldn't have been happy with the low attendance, interest and tv ratings.

 

 

It's nice to fantasize though.

[Laika]

Not exactly great precedent.

 

Sanchez is more extreme though. Higher GB%, higher K%, higher BB% in the minors.

 

Big issue with Sanchez' minor league numbers though is the trend, of course. 2014 was gross.

[Key22]

I'm more of a what have you done for me lately type over what a guy did two years ago in the minors. How was Sanchez's last 15 appearances in the minors coupled with his MLB showing? Kids make adjustments. Surrounding him with guys like MB and Russel Martin with an MLB team behind him can allow him to make some strides. He has far greater value as a top of the rotation pitcher than any position out of the bullpen. So they have to do everything they possibly can to make him stick to the rotation. Just as Cinci did with Chapman - if and ONLY if it doesn't work do you stick him in the pen. The Jays will likely find enough bodies to fill out the pen. What is K-Rod asking? Sub 1 WHIP(better than career average last year), more than a K per inning more than 4-1 K-BB rate. He's a Boris client but he only made $3.2 million last year - 44 saves and is only 33 (Jan 7). The saves number merely adds to the credibility factor for Rogers that the Jays signed an "established closer" but his peripherals were solid enough for the metrics guys to be happy as well - depending on the price.

[LongTimeReader]

I'm more of a what have you done for me lately type over what a guy did two years ago in the minors. How was Sanchez's last 15 appearances in the minors coupled with his MLB showing? Kids make adjustments. Surrounding him with guys like MB and Russel Martin with an MLB team behind him can allow him to make some strides. He has far greater value as a top of the rotation pitcher than any position out of the bullpen. So they have to do everything they possibly can to make him stick to the rotation. Just as Cinci did with Chapman - if and ONLY if it doesn't work do you stick him in the pen. The Jays will likely find enough bodies to fill out the pen. What is K-Rod asking? Sub 1 WHIP(better than career average last year), more than a K per inning more than 4-1 K-BB rate. He's a Boris client but he only made $3.2 million last year - 44 saves and is only 33 (Jan 7). The saves number merely adds to the credibility factor for Rogers that the Jays signed an "established closer" but his peripherals were solid enough for the metrics guys to be happy as well - depending on the price.

 

tldnr

[jays4life19]

tldnr

 

lol Happy New years man!

[Brownie19]

Sanchez is more extreme though. Higher GB%, higher K%, higher BB% in the minors.

 

Big issue with Sanchez' minor league numbers though is the trend, of course. 2014 was gross.

 

I remember another Jays high draft pick who came with big expectations. He too threw a sinker, induced a lot of ground balls and had poor command in the minors. When given a chance in the bigs, his control improved (albeit not to elite levels or anything) and he became a horse starter for a few years. Of course he's now rotting away in AAA with a big contract and mental/knee issues.

 

Ubaldo's another case of a big power GB inducing righty who's control was significantly better in the majors than the minors. I'm sure there's many more who made the necessary adjustments at the big league level (and yes - many who haven't - like many more).

[Laika]

I remember another Jays high draft pick who came with big expectations. He too threw a sinker, induced a lot of ground balls and had poor command in the minors. When given a chance in the bigs, his control improved (albeit not to elite levels or anything) and he became a horse starter for a few years. Of course he's now rotting away in AAA with a big contract and mental/knee issues.

 

Ubaldo's another case of a big power GB inducing righty who's control was significantly better in the majors than the minors. I'm sure there's many more who made the necessary adjustments at the big league level (and yes - many who haven't - like many more).

 

He's really not that different from most prospects. Even with good minor league number very few guys can make the leap without making a big adjustment somewhere. Sanchez needs to figure something out, like everyone else does.

[RealAccountant]

Sickels 2008 top 20 Bluejays prospects

 

Travis Snider, OF, Grade B+

Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+

Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade B-

J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C+ (for some reason I have a few doubts)

John Tolisano, 2B, Grade C+

Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C+ (will he hit?)

Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Grade C+

Curtis Thigpen, C, Grade C+

Yohermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+

Marc Rzepcynski, LHP, Grade C+

Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C (ratios have really slipped)

Ryan Patterson, OF, Grade C (disappointed in him)

Robinzon Diaz, C, Grade C

Brian Wolfe, RHP, Grade C

Josh Banks, RHP, Grade C

David Purcey, LHP, Grade C

Brandon Magee, RHP, Grade C

Alan Farina, RHP, Grade C

Jacob Butler, OF, Grade C

Buck Coats, OF, Grade C

[jays4life19]

Sickels 2008 top 20 Bluejays prospects

 

Travis Snider, OF, Grade B+

Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+

Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade B-

J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C+ (for some reason I have a few doubts)

John Tolisano, 2B, Grade C+

Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C+ (will he hit?)

Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Grade C+

Curtis Thigpen, C, Grade C+

Yohermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+

Marc Rzepcynski, LHP, Grade C+

Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C (ratios have really slipped)

Ryan Patterson, OF, Grade C (disappointed in him)

Robinzon Diaz, C, Grade C

Brian Wolfe, RHP, Grade C

Josh Banks, RHP, Grade C

David Purcey, LHP, Grade C

Brandon Magee, RHP, Grade C

Alan Farina, RHP, Grade C

Jacob Butler, OF, Grade C

Buck Coats, OF, Grade C

 

That's a pretty disgusting farm. lol.

[Chappy]

That's a pretty disgusting farm. lol.

 

Was just about to post the same thing. It was atrocious.

[jays4life19]

Was just about to post the same thing. It was atrocious.

 

Yeah AA get's a lot of hate and a lot of it's deserved but seeing a list like that makes me appreciate him a little more.

[43211234]

Personally I'm still holding onto hope for Buck Coats.

[Brownie19]

Sickels 2008 top 20 Bluejays prospects

 

Travis Snider, OF, Grade B+

Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+

Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade B-

J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C+ (for some reason I have a few doubts)

John Tolisano, 2B, Grade C+

Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C+ (will he hit?)

Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Grade C+

Curtis Thigpen, C, Grade C+

Yohermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+

Marc Rzepcynski, LHP, Grade C+

Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C (ratios have really slipped)

Ryan Patterson, OF, Grade C (disappointed in him)

Robinzon Diaz, C, Grade C

Brian Wolfe, RHP, Grade C

Josh Banks, RHP, Grade C

David Purcey, LHP, Grade C

Brandon Magee, RHP, Grade C

Alan Farina, RHP, Grade C

Jacob Butler, OF, Grade C

Buck Coats, OF, Grade C

 

That had to have been one of the worst farm systems in baseball. I just threw up in my mouth a bit.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Good times! Lol

[GD]

Personally I'm still holding onto hope for Buck Coats.

 

Wait, Kevin Ahrens is still the next Chipper Jones, right?

[burlingtonbandit]

Lol @ that 2008 list. Had to of been one of the worst in baseball.

[Laika]

Travis Snider being a top 10 prospect was the only thing that kept them our of the discussion for worst farm. IIRC they were ranked about 25th by most.

[glory]

Ricciardi really made things harder for AA's. At least Ash, one of the top 5 worst GM's ever IMO, left the team with some good prospects. Pretty much the entire 2000's were wasted because of JPR's drafting.

[Maahfaace]

I would hire JP cause he looks like a douche.........to run the janitorial staff

 

[flafson]

Sickels 2008 top 20 Bluejays prospects

 

Travis Snider, OF, Grade B+

Brett Cecil, LHP, Grade B+

Kevin Ahrens, 3B, Grade B-

J.P. Arencibia, C, Grade C+ (for some reason I have a few doubts)

John Tolisano, 2B, Grade C+

Justin Jackson, SS, Grade C+ (will he hit?)

Trystan Magnuson, RHP, Grade C+

Curtis Thigpen, C, Grade C+

Yohermyn Chavez, OF, Grade C+

Marc Rzepcynski, LHP, Grade C+

Ricky Romero, LHP, Grade C (ratios have really slipped)

Ryan Patterson, OF, Grade C (disappointed in him)

Robinzon Diaz, C, Grade C

Brian Wolfe, RHP, Grade C

Josh Banks, RHP, Grade C

David Purcey, LHP, Grade C

Brandon Magee, RHP, Grade C

Alan Farina, RHP, Grade C

Jacob Butler, OF, Grade C

Buck Coats, OF, Grade C

 

Which means that Sickels is fairly good on projections. Can't expect much unless they are at least a B. RR failed and was a C, Arencibia failed after being a C+. Snider is somewhat of a regular, same with Cecil.

[ElNik2013]

Yeah AA get's a lot of hate and a lot of it's deserved but seeing a list like that makes me appreciate him a little more.

 

 

When you look at the talent that's been traded away, you'd think this team's farm system would be bottom 5, but no, it's around top 10 even after trading away 2 MLB-ready SP and 1 highly touted low-minors 'spect. Thing is, there's still some upside for next season with Hoffman, Pentecost, Osuna and Castro possibly moving quickly up the minors.

 

 

 

We'll see what happens.

[RealAccountant]

I would not touch Norris, Sanchez, or Pompey but all others should be expandable if it means improving the team this year. Major pieces obviously cannot be acquired with the lessor prospects but its hard for me to believe the relief core cannot be improved upon using them.