Aroldis Chapman?

[G-Snarls]

Stroman only pitched a 130 innings and he had 3.3 war. It's not unreasonable for Norris or Sanchez to put up similar numbers - Buerhle was 3.5

 

And 3 of those guys are a sweet cheap league minimum salary. You have to love that.

[burlingtonbandit]

Stroman only pitched a 130 innings and he had 3.3 war. It's not unreasonable for Norris or Sanchez to put up similar numbers - Buerhle was 3.5

 

Its pretty unreasonable...

[KingKat]

If the alternative is trading prospects to bring in Holland to close than I much prefer trading for Chapman.

[IronLadle]

Its pretty unreasonable...

 

Okay, Hutchinson had 2.6 War. There is only so much affect a 60 inning pitcher has.

[Boxcar]

Okay, Hutchinson had 2.6 War. There is only so much affect a 60 inning pitcher has.

 

Andruw Hutchingstonne is a great pitcher.

[burlingtonbandit]

That's why we make him a starter!

 

For where this team is and what it is trying to accomplish, Chapman is better as closer imo. Injury risk is probably higher if you try and start him, as is that he becomes ineffective. Just take those 60 dominant innings instead of having a Feliz situation.

[G-Snarls]

That's why we make him a starter!

 

This still blows my mind:

 

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/09/aroldis-chapman-throws-very-hard-105-mph-cincinnati-reds-mlb

 

And how much less hard would he throw if converted to a starter?

[LongTimeReader]

Chapman throws hard, he is good

 

http://img.chogger.com/c/ORbfS/main.png

[burlingtonbandit]

Just did some number crunching and came up with this projection for Chapman as a starter (from Steamer's current projection) in a league average setting:

 

[TABLE=width: 520]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]GS[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]IP[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]K/9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]BB/9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]HR/9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]BABIP[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]FIP[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]WAR[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl63]24[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63]132[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]12.98[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]3.46[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]0.76[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63]0.284[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]2.51[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65]4.2[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

What makes you think he can throw 132 IP? Numbers aren't the be all end all... If a player doesn't feel comfortable starting it can lead to other issues which a steamer projection conversion table isn't going to show.

[Nox]

What makes you think he can throw 132 IP? Numbers aren't the be all end all... If a player doesn't feel comfortable starting it can lead to other issues which a steamer projection conversion table isn't going to show.

 

Or maybe he becomes more comfortable as a starter as he gets into it. Point is, we don't know either way so there's no sense speculating.

 

I would take the over on a 2.51 FIP though.

[burlingtonbandit]

By using historical data of other relievers converting to starters.

 

Are there any similar comps of a guy who has been a reliever for that long switching to being a starter? John Smoltz is one off the top of my head but he was a starter in the big leagues previously.

[burlingtonbandit]

CJ Wilson is one.

 

Nice thats a good find. If the Jays were to acquire him this offseason I would still put him at closer.

[Dr. Dinger]

The ship has sailed on Chapman as a starter, he doesn't want to.

[IronLadle]

I'd probably start him out in a 2014 Sanchez'y role. Multi-inning high leverage. Keep increasing the innings per appearance and keep spreading out the rest days. Then hopefully a starter for 2016.

 

I think his contract is up in 2016

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd probably start him out in a 2014 Sanchez'y role. Multi-inning high leverage. Keep increasing the innings per appearance and keep spreading out the rest days. Then hopefully a starter for 2016.

 

Team needs a closer though. I'd rather have him at closer finishing games for 2 years then stretch him out to be a starter one to walk as a FA in 2016.

[Nox]

Would you change K% or BB%? I did 20% reduction in context neutral K's. No change in BB%. 17% increase in context neutral HR/BIP.

 

For some reason I see the BB rate going up. Probably bc he'd have less dominant velo and might start nibbling a bit more. Not that you need to nibble too much when you're sitting 96.

[Nox]

With BB% rate increasing 17%.

[TABLE=width: 520]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]GS[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]IP[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]K/9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]BB/9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]HR/9[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]BABIP[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]FIP[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63, width: 65]WAR[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR]

[TD=class: xl63]24[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63]132[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]13.18[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]4.11[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]0.75[/TD]

[TD=class: xl63]0.284[/TD]

[TD=class: xl64]2.66[/TD]

[TD=class: xl65]3.9[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Not that it matters for FIP but does his BABIP really only regress to 0.284? He only has 252 career innings and those were all in a different role (more uncertainty, more rttm typically).

[TheHurl]

Getting him to come out for 7, 8, 9 every 3 games would be pretty sexy too.

 

yep I've never understood why no one has tried a guy like him as a 120 inning reliever. Him facing a lineup once (at any point in the game) would likely provide similar results to what he's getting now.

[Westfan]

Chapman will never start peroid. Giving up Norris or Sanchez for a closer is dumb. As good as he is.

Exactly. 6 years of control starting at league min vs 2 years starting at 8.3 mil. That would be worse than the Dickey deal.

[Brownie19]

He has a pretty decent change up. Just never needs to use it as a reliever.

 

It's inconsistent, but you're absolutely right.