Jays interested in Holland

[TheHurl]

If the Phillies had had Ward instead of Mitch the Wild Thing Williams chances are there would have been a game 7 and Carter may not have even come to the plate in the 9th. And of the teams that did win without a good pen was it because they had ridiculous starting pitching like one guy who wins three games.

 

If the Phils had Ward instead of Williams they may have lost the NLCS. What no one outside of Philly remembers is that the Phils had two good relievers all season who were f***ing horrible all through the playoffs. They helped big time to blow that game 4. Old Man Larry Anderson(who was a top 15 Reliever that year...so we can call him lights out I guess) and David West. Neither had a clean outing all playoffs.

 

 

4 saves in the postseason with a 0.68 WHIP and .083 avg against.

 

Cecil had a 9 game stretch with a 0.00 ERA 5 hits, 3 walks 15 K's. Elite. Then he finished the season with 19.3 innings, 0.00 ERA. Elite

[TheHurl]

San Fran was the lone cited example and it turns out the three back end guys were elite all season and in the playoffs. All three were much better than anyone we had.

 

When the f*** did I become lower on the posts read scale than Ang. Maybe I should put all my facts into funny pics.

 

Cards 2011, Cards 2006, White Sox 2005, Marlins 2003...

 

Not to mention how many of those "shut down" bullpen guys, weren't expected to be shutdown guys at the start of the season.

[Key22]

BTS show me some numbers. Thee S/F relievers with whips unger 1. Cecil a Whip of nearly 1.4 (which is pretty terrible). He was good late I'll give him that and I am quite happy with Cecil as a lefty set-up guy and I like Loup. Both very very solid relievers - but there is a reason the Yankees have Miller and Betances and are apparently going to a 4th year on Robertson - and they can afford all the advanced metrics guys too. Maybe they have more advanced advanced metrics than fanboys on forums.

 

When the Yankees finish ahead of us next year with a pathetic offense but those three guys coming in then tell me the pen isn't important. KC had a 77-1 record in 2014 when leading after six innings.

 

I'll grant you that the Yankees have way more money to piss down the drain than we do - but it's not rocket science to figure that not giving up runs for 3 innings every night is more desirable than getting shelled.

 

People want Gregerson - 11 save opportunities - 8 blown saves. Yup he's a find. A real winner that one - when the game is on the line he loses 8 times in 11 tries. Yup - give him 6 million.

[Ehjays]

people want gregerson - 11 save opportunities - 8 blown saves. Yup he's a find. A real winner that one - when the game is on the line he loses 8 times in 11 tries. Yup - give him 6 million.

 

 

 

lol

[BTS]

BTS show me some numbers. Thee S/F relievers with whips unger 1. Cecil a Whip of nearly 1.4 (which is pretty terrible). He was good late I'll give him that and I am quite happy with Cecil as a lefty set-up guy and I like Loup. Both very very solid relievers - but there is a reason the Yankees have Miller and Betances and are apparently going to a 4th year on Robertson - and they can afford all the advanced metrics guys too. Maybe they have more advanced advanced metrics than fanboys on forums.

 

When the Yankees finish ahead of us next year with a pathetic offense but those three guys coming in then tell me the pen isn't important. KC had a 77-1 record in 2014 when leading after six innings.

 

I'll grant you that the Yankees have way more money to piss down the drain than we do - but it's not rocket science to figure that not giving up runs for 3 innings every night is more desirable than getting shelled.

 

People want Gregerson - 11 save opportunities - 8 blown saves. Yup he's a find. A real winner that one - when the game is on the line he loses 8 times in 11 tries. Yup - give him 6 million.

 

Cecil 2.70 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 2.51 xFIP in a hitter's park in the AL East.

 

Romo = 3.72, 3.94, 3.40

Casilla = 1.70, 3.18, 3.45

Affeldt = 2.28, 2.86, 3.23

 

And they pitched in a giant pitcher's park in the NL West. I really don't think think there's an argument. Cecil would have just silly numbers pitching for SF while the other three would have ERAs approaching 4 in Toronto.

[Mikeleelop]

Sanchez rp, Norris #5 sp > holland rp, sanchez #5sp

 

Norris more polished and ready to transition to MLB like Stroman did last year

[Angrioter]

Cecil 2.70 ERA, 2.34 FIP, 2.51 xFIP in a hitter's park in the AL East.

 

Romo = 3.72, 3.94, 3.40

Casilla = 1.70, 3.18, 3.45

Affeldt = 2.28, 2.86, 3.23

 

And they pitched in a giant pitcher's park in the NL West. I really don't think think there's an argument. Cecil would have just silly numbers pitching for SF while the other three would have ERAs approaching 4 in Toronto.

 

Cecil

2013-2014: 114 innings

(11.53 K, 3.95 BB, 0.47HR)/9, 53% GB, 2.63 FIP

 

David Robertson

2013-2014: 130 innings

(11.92 K, 2.82 BB, 0.83 HR)/9, 48% GB, 2.65 FIP

[BTS]

Cecil

2013-2014: 114 innings

(11.53 K, 3.95 BB, 0.47HR)/9, 53% GB, 2.63 FIP

 

David Robertson

2013-2014: 130 innings

(11.92 K, 2.82 BB, 0.83 HR)/9, 48% GB, 2.65 FIP

 

Yeah, Cecil is pretty elite.

[Mikeleelop]

I'd rather give some $ to morrow to come back as #5 to start season, leave Norris in aaa and keep sanchez in bullpen this year. You have some money to get other options at the back end. I just don't like idea of giving up Norris when he's this close to contributing at a high level. Cardinals use these young starters and have a long term history of success

[burlingtonbandit]

Sanchez rp, Norris #5 sp > holland rp, sanchez #5sp

 

Norris more polished and ready to transition to MLB like Stroman did last year

 

Agree. I would think that signing a starter for close to Holland's salary and putting Sanchez in the pen is a much better move as well.

[Caper]

The team does not have to make anymore big moves right now... Not second base, not another starter not a big name bullpen arm. They have enough where they should be holding or very close to holding a playoff spot near the trade deadline. You'll have a better idea what you will need by then. Starters could suprise, Devon Travis could prove adequate... and some cheap arms might surprise in the pen.

[Mikeleelop]

The team does not have to make anymore big moves right now... Not second base, not another starter not a big name bullpen arm. They have enough where they should be holding or very close to holding a playoff spot near the trade deadline. You'll have a better idea what you will need by then. Starters could suprise, Devon Travis could prove adequate... and some cheap arms might surprise in the pen.

 

Agree. No need to go hard after holland. Lower level prospects I'm okay with. Guys like Norris, sanchez who will contribute in 2015 no f***ing way

[tpurewal97]

In no particular order

 

Estrada

Redmond

Delabar : Have a good feeling he bounces back

Loup

Cecil

Rafael Soriano

Luke Gregerson

[tpurewal97]

theScore ‏@theScore 3m3 minutes ago

Report: White Sox agree to terms with David Robertson on 4-year deal worth more than $40M. http://thesco.re/1seysCN

[Key22]

Sanchez and Norris are not depth?

 

Sanchez is the number 5 starter apparently. Depth is guys after the number 5 guy. Many on this board think Sanchez will walk everyone and will be terrible. I'm never thrilled when rookies are in the rotation nor am I thrilled by a rotation that lacks an ace and a number two. But I do like Sanchez and Norris in terms of upside - I just figured that if the Jays are supposedly all in - don't go halfway and stop. I would rather make the playoffs and then have a team capable of winning when we get there - but I suppose making it is the first step.

[Key22]

Cecil WHIP 1.369 & 1.4 WAR (A hit is a hit and a walk is a walk).

 

Santiago Castillo 0.857 WHIP and 2.0 WAR (Santiago was much better on the road)

Jean Machi 0.950 WHIP 1.5WAR (Machi pitched the same on the road or at home) So pitchers park or not didn't matter to either one.

 

I'll give you ROMO - he stunk on the road - and had a 0.3WAR - But he was good in the second half toward the end like Cecil facing AAAA scrubs.

 

Cecil's 4.6BB/9 is pretty terrible and he is saved by the fact that he strikes people out. Castillo and Machi don't put up sick strikeout numbers but nor do they walk people.

 

Like I said - I have no issue if the Jays want to make Cecil the closer - I said that in August. I wanted them to give him the job to try out to see if he could do it. But he's not a sure thing given his first half stunk. I hope his second half is the real deal. I remember when Morrow had that Elite second half. He was going to be the next Verlander/Scherzer.

[burlingtonbandit]

The team does not have to make anymore big moves right now... Not second base, not another starter not a big name bullpen arm. They have enough where they should be holding or very close to holding a playoff spot near the trade deadline. You'll have a better idea what you will need by then. Starters could suprise, Devon Travis could prove adequate... and some cheap arms might surprise in the pen.

 

Well considering they have 20 million left they should at least spend 12-15 million of that to upgrade the roster. You never know what can happen in the season so its important to have as many needs filled in the offseason. Once the seasons starts no one is going to make a trade until July and when trades become available the asking price is a ton higher than it is during the offseason.

[Nox]

This Key guy is an even worse poster than I remember.

[Olerud363]

As if Nox's post needed any building upon, I'd like to add that had the Phillies had a better offense, their lead may have been insurmountable, or a better SP performance, etc. Any number of things could have changed, but since the bullpen was the one that ultimately gave it up it's focused on more. A win is a win is a win and all that jazz.

 

Just glancing at the box scores of this year's World Series I can't see that San Francisco's bullpen recorded a save at all in that series.

 

And I remember the 1993 world series... Schilling was bad in game 1 and awesome in game 5.

 

Aces always shut down good offenses... except when they don't... except when they do.

 

If Schilling had "aced it" in game 1 it would of made as much a difference in that series as if Mitch Williams "closed" in game 6.

[TheHurl]

Cecil's 4.6BB/9 is pretty terrible and he is saved by the fact that he strikes people out. Castillo and Machi don't put up sick strikeout numbers but nor do they walk people.

 

CASILLA walked 4.5/9 over 50 IP in 2013 and was over 4.0 for his career coming into this year. Can we end this discussion now!

 

The point we are trying to make is that you shouldn't pay bullpens for what they have done (or anyone) but pay them for what you think they will do.

[Nox]

CASILLA walked 4.5/9 over 50 IP in 2013 and was over 4.0 for his career coming into this year. Can we end this discussion now!

 

The point we are trying to make is that you shouldn't pay bullpens for what they have done (or anyone) but pay them for what you think they will do and since you don't really know what they're going to do, you don't pay for it period.

 

Amended.

[Olerud363]

Amended.

 

There are really multiple ways to win. Starters, Bullpen. There is also left handed power... old timers will remember Reggie Jackson hitting 3 homers in 1978. That kind of power can't be shut down.

 

Of course some of us remember Joe Carter.. but that was more a Mitch Williams thing... So I don't think right handed power is the answer, which is a shame because we have that.

 

What we don't have is the left handed Reggie Jackson kind of bat that can't be shut down in the playoffs. Boston does unfortunately in Papi.

 

Another way to win is big tall left handers teamed up with a shorter right hander. Even the kids might remember Schilling and Randy Johnson in 2001.

 

We have Stroman... and the prospects hounds probably know something about a tall lefty called Smoral.

 

What I would of done is aim for 2017 or 18. We currently have a solid team but don't have a winning formula.

 

The tall lefty and shorter righty would be interesting... just have to get them to the playoffs. After that it would be hard to counter the tall/short/left/right combo of Smoral and Stroman.

[Olerud363]

lol!! Buehrle's 6'2"

 

Exactly my point. There is no proven formula (that I am aware of) that includes a midsized lefty slopballer.

 

The proven formula I am talking about is the smaller righty combined with supertall lefty. Remember 2001?? There was no way to stop it. Even the Yankees, in the midst of there 2nd best dynasty (Jeter, Posado, Williams, Rivera, O'Niel, Martinez, Torre 1996-2001 years) could not do anything...

 

Think about it, the greatest Yankees collection of our lifetimes could not deal with the righty/tall-lefty combo.

 

Think of all the WAR of Jeter, Posado, Williams, Rivera, O'Niel, Martinez, Torre. All that statistical power couldn't stop a proven formula.

 

So 2018 we will have that - tall lefty (Smoral) and stroman. We have talent and WARS now but no proven formula.

[Dr. Dinger]

LlHdjd

[Olerud363]

It probably had more to do with them being two of the best pitchers of there generation than how tall they were or what hand they throw the ball with.

 

OK. So why couldn't Kershaw and Grienke do it?? Statistically they are very similar too Johnson and Schilling. But in the end they couldn't get it done.

 

If you believe in clutch you could say Kershaw and Grienke just are not clutch. I mean KC did not win until Grienke left.

 

But I actually think Johnson's height had a lot to do with it. In the playoffs teams are really good and hard to stop. The playoff teams have seen good lefties before, so could counter Kershaw. But Johnson's height put another wrinkle into it that even a playoff team couldn't deal with.

 

I really think the Smoral/Stroman combo is a good formula for the playoffs. It's been proven before.

[Nox]

OK. So why couldn't Kershaw and Grienke do it?? Statistically they are very similar too Johnson and Schilling. But in the end they couldn't get it done.

 

Because it's a 7 game series and it's really just a crap shoot.

 

And, even though it's beside the point, they're nowhere near similar to Schilling/Johnson (2000-2002).

[Deadpool]

OK. So why couldn't Kershaw and Grienke do it?? Statistically they are very similar too Johnson and Schilling. But in the end they couldn't get it done.

 

If you believe in clutch you could say Kershaw and Grienke just are not clutch. I mean KC did not win until Grienke left.

 

But I actually think Johnson's height had a lot to do with it. In the playoffs teams are really good and hard to stop. The playoff teams have seen good lefties before, so could counter Kershaw. But Johnson's height put another wrinkle into it that even a playoff team couldn't deal with.

 

I really think the Smoral/Stroman combo is a good formula for the playoffs. It's been proven before.

 

80 grade trolling right here. Even getting the people who usually catch this sort of thing. Kudos!

[Olerud363]

80 grade trolling right here. Even getting the people who usually catch this sort of thing. Kudos!

 

I wasn't trying to troll the good posters (like Nox and JFAS). Sorry about that.

 

I was just trying to point out to the "we need a shutdown closer" and "we need an ace" crowd that their arguments were flawed.

 

The team with the best 2 aces (LA) didn't win.

 

The team with the best bullpen (I'm assuming it was KC??) didn't win it all.

 

The team that did win probably wasn't the best at anything or really the best at all just some combination of good and lucky.

 

If the Jays somehow make the playoffs and then go on to win the world Series because Dickey goes 5-0 in the playoffs and EE hits 9 homers in the playoffs.

 

It won't be because of anything other than the fact the Dickey and EE have had good 3 week runs before and could very well have a good 3 weeks in October. Or somebody else could.

[Nox]

I wasn't trying to troll the good posters (like Nox and JFAS). Sorry about that.

 

Eff me.

[mitchf]

Nobody is discounting the value of a good bullpen. It's valuable - we saw that with KC this year. It's just that planning to have a good bullpen is really hard, and big investments in relievers is more often than not a very inefficient expenditure of assets.

Even when you strike gold in somebody like Santos, it's just as likely it falls apart. It should take the average fan a maximum of 2 or 3 seasons of watching baseball to realize just how ridiculously difficult it is to project a bullpen.