Blue Jays seeking replacement for Beeston

[burlingtonbandit]

I think it's something like this right now:

 

Hoyer

Jocketty

Antonetti

Zaidi

Dombrowski

Beane

Huntington

Sabean

Mozeliak

 

a bunch of guys

 

Zduriencik

Moore

Stewart

Hart

Amaro

 

As things stand right now, I don't think you can convincingly argue AA out of the "bunch of guys" tier, in either direction.

 

I think AA would be pretty close to the top of the bunch of guys tier. Agree with the list for the most part though. An underrated GM I don't think we hear much about is Antonetti in Cleveland. The Swisher deal looks bad but he's made some nice under the radar moves and that team has been pretty good considering their payroll.

 

Edit: Just realized you had him in your list.. I'm retarded.

[Rusty_Savage]

I think it's something like this right now:

 

Hoyer

Jocketty

Antonetti

Zaidi

Dombrowski

Beane

Huntington

Sabean

Mozeliak

 

a bunch of guys

 

Zduriencik

Moore

Stewart

Hart

Amaro

 

As things stand right now, I don't think you can convincingly argue AA out of the "bunch of guys" tier, in either direction.

 

 

I get that Zaidi is supposed to be a very smart baseball guy, but he's been the GM for a little over two months and his record as GM is 0-0. A tad bit early putting him that high, no?

[TwistedLogic]

Not only that, but you have to assume Friedman's influence when rating Zaidi, which makes him better by default, the same way every other GM gets credit for whoever is in his office, and why Hoyer also gets credit for working with Epstein.

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Preller is sharing body warmth with the bottom of that list before long.

[TheHurl]

AA has probably done close to as much as he could have given the kind of limitations that he has to deal with.

 

wasn't that basically set up by him taking a team with basically no bad contracts, trading approximately 100M in value, and adding $50M in payroll over 2 years. I give him a lot of credit as I said that the only way he'd get out of the jam was continuing to add payroll. Payroll has stayed somewhat static and he has improved the team (partially because he traded Lawrie, something that from a PR position I never thought he'd do). But prior to this season he did absolutely nothing to give himself more flexibility.

[TwistedLogic]

wasn't that basically set up by him taking a team with basically no bad contracts, trading approximately 100M in value, and adding $50M in payroll over 2 years. I give him a lot of credit as I said that the only way he'd get out of the jam was continuing to add payroll. Payroll has stayed somewhat static and he has improved the team (partially because he traded Lawrie, something that from a PR position I never thought he'd do). But prior to this season he did absolutely nothing to give himself more flexibility.

 

To be fair, my comment about him doing as much as he probably could within his limitations was in strict reference to this offseason specifically. I don't believe that to be true for any time period before then.

[TheHurl]

It's not too hard to judge a GM by public comments.

 

Luhnow might be proving that wrong though.

[ElNik2013]

I get that Zaidi is supposed to be a very smart baseball guy, but he's been the GM for a little over two months and his record as GM is 0-0. A tad bit early putting him that high, no?

 

 

He clearly means Friedman. Just like Hoyer/Epstein. It's just the way it is. If DD is hired by the Jays, whomever his GM is will be a figurehead and DD will get the credit for much of any success the team has.

[Gorlak]

Like you said its a long term thing but should't effect payroll this season. Rogers is such a massive company they have US accounts. It would however effect their revenue this year and payroll in future years.

 

Even if they have U.S. income to cover it, It would still be a wash since they wouldn't be able to take advantage of those American dollars on earnings, As time goes on it will be like a tax on the Jays.

[ElNik2013]

Also, I could be wrong, but the Dodgers seem to be having an very good off season.

[TwistedLogic]

Also, I could be wrong, but the Dodgers seem to be having an very good off season.

 

Is that really a surprise, given who they're run by? They probably have the best executive duo in sports right now, and I wouldn't be shy in saying they've also probably got the best owners. When you got Kasten, Johnson and their dollars, and Friedman, Zaidi, and their expertise, I don't know if it will surprise anyone if it turns out that the Dodgers have just begun a run at the top that will last longer than what the Yankees have done since '96.

[ElNik2013]

I think top 15 is fair for AA. He started off well, then made those 2 trades in 2012, likely influenced by the organization's refusal to go into a season expecting to lose 90-100 games which would've been the case going into 2013 absent the trades, then stood pat last season, but has had a very good off season.

 

 

Picking up Donaldson is huge as even if fired tomorrow, he'd leave the franchise with a bonafide superstar with 4 years of control. He'd also leave a nice core of young pitchers. Pompey looks really good to me, he could actually be a core player as well.

 

 

A couple of more moves would solidify the team.

[ElNik2013]

Is that really a surprise, given who they're run by? They probably have the best executive duo in sports right now, and I wouldn't be shy in saying they've also probably got the best owners. When you got Kasten, Johnson and their dollars, and Friedman, Zaidi, and their expertise, I don't know if it will surprise anyone if it turns out that the Dodgers have just begun a run at the top that will last longer than what the Yankees have done since '96.

 

 

Not surprised here. Just pointing it out to the poster that wasn't in agreement over ranking Zaidi so high.

[Rusty_Savage]

Not surprised here. Just pointing it out to the poster that wasn't in agreement over ranking Zaidi so high.

 

Yeah I guess I kind of messed up on that. Being a. Extension of Friedman isn't a bad thing

[GNick49]

Compensation should have been decided when Jays got permission to talk to DD.

[RealAccountant]

I don't think the Navarro thing is that weird. Navarro is a replacement-level player making $5 million. AA is likely trying to get an asset for him. Trying to get assets for players that make more money than they're worth doesn't usually end well. The only justification for the proposals thrown around on this site is "the D-Backs are dumn, so AA should be able to get a good reliever from them".

 

So replacement players are 2WAR then

[RealAccountant]

Like you said its a long term thing but should't effect payroll this season. Rogers is such a massive company they have US accounts. It would however effect their revenue this year and payroll in future years.

 

It doesn't work like you think. Accounting requires currency translations at cutoff dates.

[GD]

Compensation should have been decided when Jays got permission to talk to DD.

 

They didn't, lol

[GD]

So replacement players are 2WAR then

 

Navarro isn't a 2 WAR player w/ framing

[jaysfan2014]

Is that really a surprise, given who they're run by? They probably have the best executive duo in sports right now, and I wouldn't be shy in saying they've also probably got the best owners. When you got Kasten, Johnson and their dollars, and Friedman, Zaidi, and their expertise, I don't know if it will surprise anyone if it turns out that the Dodgers have just begun a run at the top that will last longer than what the Yankees have done since '96.

 

Giants fans disagree. They've got 3 World Series since 2010, while the Dodgers haven't even seen a World Series since Kirk Gibson hit that HR in 1988.

[glory]

Yeah, AA did a lot to repair his reputation this off-season. Donaldson, Martin, Saunders, Travis, etc, was a hell of an off-season.

 

The issue, as stated before, is depth. He has never properly anticipated injuries in any season he has been GM. He puts far too much expectations on young players to begin a season, and if they get hurt or pitch below expectations, he blames injuries/bad luck. In reality, he should be putting no pressure on the young starters because he shouldn't be counting on them at all. This year it will be Sanchez, Pompey, and possibly Travis and Norris as well. Out of those four, the only one I'd be confident in starting the season in the Majors is Travis, and even he hasn't touched AAA yet. The depth in case of failure/injury, while better than previous seasons, is still not where it should be.

 

Regardless, if AA's newfound appreciation of advanced stats is for real, then I don't mind him staying on. Maybe AA with a better team president would be more successful.

[BTS]

So replacement players are 2WAR then

 

You keep saying this, and people keep responding in the same way. fWAR is usually a good quick and dirty measure of what a player can bring to the table, but there is reason to believe that for catchers the number isn't of much use at all because it don't account for framing.

 

Navarro in his career has been worth about 1 fWAR per 500 plate appearances. He's been better recently so his projection is going to be a bit better than that (Steamer has him at 1.4). He's a bad athlete with a league-average bat and no significant platoon split, so you don't want him anywhere but catcher (including DH). So without any reason to believe otherwise, you have what should be a ~1.4 win player in 2015.

 

Now, there are four pretty good sources of information on pitch framing. They are as follows:

 

Matt Carruth's statcorner has Navarro -8.2 runs per 8000 chances from 2007-2014

Mike Fast's study -6.1 runs/8000 from 2007-2011

BP's framing report -8.0 runs/8000 from 2008-2014

JFaS, who's exact numbers escape me, but thinks he's one of the worst framers in baseball

 

So the best guess we have is that you take a ~1.4 win projection and cut about 8 runs off of it. So you have a player that you'd expect to provide you with about 0.5 wins over 500 plate appearances while earning $5 million. And it might be worse than that: Carruth had him at -20/8000 in 2014, BP had him at -11, and IIRC JFaS had him in the -20 range.

 

Sure, there might be a team that A) needs a catcher and can add one at $5 million and thinks Navarro is worth giving up an actual asset for, but you're counting on incompetency from any possible trade partner in that case.

[TheHurl]

Navarro isn't a 2 WAR player w/ framing

 

However we know that there are plenty of teams out there that don't care about framing (doesn't mean they don't have old school views of "good defense" or good receiver") so where does his trade value lie? I'd guess someone views him as a small asset. Jays may have to wait for an injury though.

[saskjayfan]

Also, I could be wrong, but the Dodgers seem to be having an very good off season.

 

They have a payroll north of 250 mil....they better be having a good offseason.

[saskjayfan]

You keep saying this, and people keep responding in the same way. fWAR is usually a good quick and dirty measure of what a player can bring to the table, but there is reason to believe that for catchers the number isn't of much use at all because it don't account for framing.

 

Navarro in his career has been worth about 1 fWAR per 500 plate appearances. He's been better recently so his projection is going to be a bit better than that (Steamer has him at 1.4). He's a bad athlete with a league-average bat and no significant platoon split, so you don't want him anywhere but catcher (including DH). So without any reason to believe otherwise, you have what should be a ~1.4 win player in 2015.

 

Now, there are four pretty good sources of information on pitch framing. They are as follows:

 

Matt Carruth's statcorner has Navarro -8.2 runs per 8000 chances from 2007-2014

Mike Fast's study -6.1 runs/8000 from 2007-2011

BP's framing report -8.0 runs/8000 from 2008-2014

JFaS, who's exact numbers escape me, but thinks he's one of the worst framers in baseball

 

So the best guess we have is that you take a ~1.4 win projection and cut about 8 runs off of it. So you have a player that you'd expect to provide you with about 0.5 wins over 500 plate appearances while earning $5 million. And it might be worse than that: Carruth had him at -20/8000 in 2014, BP had him at -11, and IIRC JFaS had him in the -20 range.

 

Sure, there might be a team that A) needs a catcher and can add one at $5 million and thinks Navarro is worth giving up an actual asset for, but you're counting on incompetency from any possible trade partner in that case.

 

what's more important...framing or game calling ability?

[saskjayfan]

Framing.

 

I see...how much more valuable is framing?

[burlingtonbandit]

I think Navarro would improve as a framer with less innings behind the plate as they could work with him on it and he would be less worn down but he still won't be good at it. I have a hard time believing he will be of any value to the Jays as a backup catcher. He is only going to be slower and can't play any other position other than C. Not to mention his bat is useless at DH and would be taking away time from using DH to rest guys like Reyes and Bautista...

[TwistedLogic]

"Recently it was reported that the O’s have a list of candidates for the job if it opens up and that includes names like Ned Colletti, Kevin Malone, Omar Minaya, and Kevin Towers."

 

Holy f*** http://www.freesmileys.org/smileys/smiley-laughing002.gif

[GD]

Added bonus to Duquette: O's would be stuck with one of the worst GM's humanly possibly.

[burlingtonbandit]

Navarro is not a terrible framer really, he just doesn't care and doesn't f***ing do it.

 

His glove positioning doesn't seem good. Just watching highlights for some of our pitchers his glove is moving throughout the pitch and there is movement on the catch.

[saskjayfan]

~3x. And framing stabilizes much much much faster.

 

it's hard for something to stabilize when there's not statistical way to measure it's effect. You're educated guess of 3x is noted though. Thanks for your opinion. As it relates to Navarro, I couldn't even assess his abilities as a game caller. The things that stick out in my memory are the Zaun comments where he actually points out where Navarro calls the wrong pitch in a given situation.