Blue Jays seeking replacement for Beeston

[TheHurl]

If he doesn't like sabermetrics, why does he acquire players the sabermetric community think are good players and get rid of the ones they think are bad. Isn't he on record saying if he had to choose a stat to judge a player on, it would be K% and BB%. I also prefer thin girls and am not in on the joke so I apologize, Just know quite a few people that hate fat people unconditionally and they are all stupid.

 

Also I'm not doubting any information you have, I'm glad we have you as a resource, But that doesn't make your opinions any more accurate or less open to debate.

 

I honestly believe that AA might be learning a little bit from his mistakes (you'd have to be an idiot not to) and maybe is listening a little more to better people. I know that in the past Perry Minasian and Dana Brown both had a huge impact on his decisions. Perry's background is being born into a baseball family and was in AA's wedding party, so isn't going anywhere. Brown is known as an old school, scouts are seldom wrong, guy. The Jays analytic's department is mainly made up of interns who are paid somewhere near minimum wage. I know from applying to the process that are looking for guys with a very strong math background....but I think AA believes they should be happy to continue making that. It's possible that the analytic interns are being listened to more often now, but I find it hard to believe that the same group of guys that had Arencibia as a better defensive (and offensive) catcher than TdA suddenly understands Martin's true value. As for K% and BB% he also publicly has called OPS an advanced stat.

 

Lastly I love debate. Don't get as much time to debate baseball as my unemployed poker playing years, but I'm up for it anytime.

[Gorlak]

No, Jays wouldn't be that stupid. Even I know of the tampering charges risk. Surely Jays would

 

The Jays aren't that dumb, But Ed Rogers? That's my concern, I hope I'm just paranoid.

[Gorlak]

I didn't want AA bought back for this season but must admit he has had a good off season. Seems like he has learned/evolved. An example would be Martin. He could of had Martin 2 years prior when Yankees let him go but chose Arencibia instead. He's learned to put more value on player's character and durability. Paid the price to make Oakland trade instead of trying to get deals on players with issues like Escobar or a Rasmus. No rumours on acquiring consistently injured players a Josh Johnson or Morrow.

 

Hoping on high ceiling injured players has definitely been his biggest weakness, I hope he has learned from this, but time will tell.

[saskjayfan]

I honestly believe that AA might be learning a little bit from his mistakes (you'd have to be an idiot not to) and maybe is listening a little more to better people. I know that in the past Perry Minasian and Dana Brown both had a huge impact on his decisions. Perry's background is being born into a baseball family and was in AA's wedding party, so isn't going anywhere. Brown is known as an old school, scouts are seldom wrong, guy. The Jays analytic's department is mainly made up of interns who are paid somewhere near minimum wage. I know from applying to the process that are looking for guys with a very strong math background....but I think AA believes they should be happy to continue making that. It's possible that the analytic interns are being listened to more often now, but I find it hard to believe that the same group of guys that had Arencibia as a better defensive (and offensive) catcher than TdA suddenly understands Martin's true value. As for K% and BB% he also publicly has called OPS an advanced stat.

 

Lastly I love debate. Don't get as much time to debate baseball as my unemployed poker playing years, but I'm up for it anytime.

 

lol...you make it sound like if you had Jays hadn't made the worst mistake of their lives and hired you that you'd never make a mistake because you're just that good..lol. All baseball executives make mistakes. Alex is a first time GM. Is it really a surprise that he's made mistakes? At least I know why you hate AA and the Jays. They spurned you.

[TheHurl]

The thing that boggles my mind is they asked the Yankees for advice. You don't ask a f***in division rival for advice on who to hire as the franchise CEO. Could you imagine the Leafs asking the Habs or Sens for advice? Or the Cowboys asking the Giants for advice? Someone should find out where Eddy lives and protest outside his house.

 

I just Google'd "Edward Rogers III address Toronto and my internet (Rogers) stopped working for several minutes. I'll just back out of this search now.

[TheHurl]

lol...you make it sound like if you had Jays hadn't made the worst mistake of their lives and hired you that you'd never make a mistake because you're just that good..lol. All baseball executives make mistakes. Alex is a first time GM. Is it really a surprise that he's made mistakes? At least I know why you hate AA and the Jays. They spurned you.

 

Duke U, rejected me and I still jerk off to Coach K. I applied to a Rays job as well...don't have hatred for them. Someday my hatred for AA will be better understood.

[TwistedLogic]

AA is probably a top 10 GM in the game, and the scouting/development system is probably top 10 as well.

 

Jays fans are ungrateful. Could be so much worse.

[BTS]

AA has definitely had a nice offseason, but it's still incomplete. Given the ages of the team's top players and the projected cost of retaining this group going forward, this roster needs to be bolstered as much as possible. There are still issues that should be addressed:

 

- The team is projected to be replacement-level at 2B.

- Jose Reyes is now 32, has not exactly been a model of health, and there currently isn't a player on the 40-man who can cover short and be better than replacement-level.

- Dioner Navarro is a complete waste of a roster spot and is still on the 25-man.

- CF is a Pillar/Pompey platoon, and there is nothing outside the four outfielders that has much chance of being above replacement-level. The OF is currently very vulnerable to injury or disappointing play from their unproven CF platoon.

- Bullpen is probably going to be below-average.

 

As has always been the case under his tenure, the roster looks like it will be incomplete entering the season.

[TwistedLogic]

AA has definitely had a nice offseason, but it's still incomplete. Given the ages of the team's top players and the projected cost of retaining this group going forward, this roster needs to be bolstered as much as possible. There are still issues that should be addressed:

 

- The team is projected to be replacement-level at 2B.

- Jose Reyes is now 32, has not exactly been a model of health, and there currently isn't a player on the 40-man who can cover short and be better than replacement-level.

- Dioner Navarro is a complete waste of a roster spot and is still on the 25-man.

- CF is a Pillar/Pompey platoon, and there is nothing outside the four outfielders that has much chance of being above replacement-level. The OF is currently very vulnerable to injury or disappointing play from their unproven CF platoon.

- Bullpen is probably going to be below-average.

 

As has always been the case under his tenure, the roster looks like it will be incomplete entering the season.

 

Sort of like nearly every other roster in the game.

[BTS]

It would also be nice to add another starter that projects for like 1-2 wins.

 

Dickey

Stroman

Buehrle

Hutchison

new guy

 

Estrada (pen, ~ 1-win starter maybe)

Norris (AAA)

and then into the likely replacement-level guys

[Gorlak]

I honestly believe that AA might be learning a little bit from his mistakes (you'd have to be an idiot not to) and maybe is listening a little more to better people. I know that in the past Perry Minasian and Dana Brown both had a huge impact on his decisions. Perry's background is being born into a baseball family and was in AA's wedding party, so isn't going anywhere. Brown is known as an old school, scouts are seldom wrong, guy. The Jays analytic's department is mainly made up of interns who are paid somewhere near minimum wage. I know from applying to the process that are looking for guys with a very strong math background....but I think AA believes they should be happy to continue making that. It's possible that the analytic interns are being listened to more often now, but I find it hard to believe that the same group of guys that had Arencibia as a better defensive (and offensive) catcher than TdA suddenly understands Martin's true value. As for K% and BB% he also publicly has called OPS an advanced stat.

 

Lastly I love debate. Don't get as much time to debate baseball as my unemployed poker playing years, but I'm up for it anytime.

 

I doubt he would only hire people with math backgrounds if he didn't care for the math, Just doesn't make sense. Arencibia and Gomes were his two worst judgement calls, I suppose you could add Napoli(He is terrible at catchers it seems).

 

I always like to debate people that know what they are talking about.

[BTS]

Sort of like nearly every other roster in the game.

 

Not exactly. People point this out as a roster flaw every March, and AA's teams have historically been among the worst in the league at giving tons of PA/innings to replacement-level talent (or worse). It's a huge flaw of this group.

[TwistedLogic]

I doubt he would only hire people with math backgrounds if he didn't care for the math, Just doesn't make sense. Arencibia and Gomes were his two worst judgement calls, I suppose you could add Napoli(He is terrible at catchers it seems).

 

I always like to debate people that know what they are talking about.

 

Which is essentially irrelevant at this point, after the Pentecost selection and the Martin signing.

[Gorlak]

Duke U, rejected me and I still jerk off to Coach K. I applied to a Rays job as well...don't have hatred for them. Someday my hatred for AA will be better understood.

 

Or shown to be completely ridiculous, Now taking all bets.

[Abomination]

It would also be nice to add another starter that projects for like 1-2 wins.

 

Dickey

Stroman

Buehrle

Hutchison

new guy

 

Estrada (pen, ~ 1-win starter maybe)

Norris (AAA)

and then into the likely replacement-level guys

 

I wonder if we're the team in the lead for Beachy?

[Gorlak]

Which is essentially irrelevant at this point, after the Pentecost selection and the Martin signing.

 

Agreed, but he was blowing it.

[TheHurl]

AA is probably a top 10 GM in the game, and the scouting/development system is probably top 10 as well.

 

Jays fans are ungrateful. Could be so much worse.

 

I'd say more middle of the pack. But I also think there are a lot of really stupid GM's out there.

[Gorlak]

AA is probably a top 10 GM in the game, and the scouting/development system is probably top 10 as well.

 

Jays fans are ungrateful. Could be so much worse.

 

Agreed.

[BTS]

I wonder if we're the team in the lead for Beachy?

 

Beachy is exactly the type of arm they should be in on. His arm is probably going to fall off. But maybe it doesn't and he gives you 2-3 wins. Or maybe it falls off after he gives you 100 good innings.

[burlingtonbandit]

No one really knows whats going to happen with the Payroll though. How much money does this team have left to spend? Has Rogers stopped AA's ability to make trades/signings? There are so many questions that we don't have answers for. I will say it really does seem off Navarro hasn't been moved yet as AA publicly said he will trade him (something he never does). For all we know Rogers has AA in handcuffs..

[BTS]

No one really knows whats going to happen with the Payroll though. How much money does this team have left to spend? Has Rogers stopped AA's ability to make trades/signings? There are so many questions that we don't have answers for. I will say it really does seem off Navarro hasn't been moved yet as AA publicly said he will trade him (something he never does). For all we know Rogers has AA in handcuffs..

 

I don't think the Navarro thing is that weird. Navarro is a replacement-level player making $5 million. AA is likely trying to get an asset for him. Trying to get assets for players that make more money than they're worth doesn't usually end well. The only justification for the proposals thrown around on this site is "the D-Backs are dumn, so AA should be able to get a good reliever from them".

[Gorlak]

They need a bullpen, everything else is secondary. I think a terrible bullpen will hurt them in the stands worse than the WAR total projects.

[TwistedLogic]

Not exactly. People point this out as a roster flaw every March, and AA's teams have historically been among the worst in the league at giving tons of PA/innings to replacement-level talent (or worse). It's a huge flaw of this group.

 

My point though is how much more can they do. If it's true that AA has had offers lined up for Navarro and wasn't given the go-ahead because of Ed Rogers' ********, then that's out of his hands. There's still guys like K-Rod, who had one of the best xFIP's of his career last year, and Badenhop, who is a groundball machine, so I'm still holding out hope that something will be done about the bullpen. I also agree that they should get another starter; if they're not going for Shields, then maybe a flyer on Beachy who can be a May callup or something when he's healthy. All that said, they've had a good offseason and they have to depend at least a little on some good luck.

 

The Orioles got to the ALCS with the 28th ranked (third worst) starter xFIP in the majors last year. The Royals made the world series after having played Billy Butler for a full year.

 

Not everyone can have a roster like the Nationals, who are almost completely supplemented by Harper, Strasburg and Rendon, the products of being perennial trash for such a long time, or the Dodgers, who have a 270M payroll and are helmed by Friedman and Zaidi.

 

AA has probably done close to as much as he could have given the kind of limitations that he has to deal with.

[TwistedLogic]

lol, I swear I didn't see those posts before mentioning Beachy.

[Gorlak]

No one really knows whats going to happen with the Payroll though. How much money does this team have left to spend? Has Rogers stopped AA's ability to make trades/signings? There are so many questions that we don't have answers for. I will say it really does seem off Navarro hasn't been moved yet as AA publicly said he will trade him (something he never does). For all we know Rogers has AA in handcuffs..

 

The Canadian dollar has gone to garbage as well, I assume it doesn't matter this season, but this could be bad if it stays this low.

[BTS]

My point though is how much more can they do. If it's true that AA has had offers lined up for Navarro and wasn't given the go-ahead because of Ed Rogers' ********, then that's out of his hands. There's still guys like K-Rod, who had one of the best xFIP's of his career last year, and Badenhop, who is a groundball machine, so I'm still holding out hope that something will be done about the bullpen. I also agree that they should get another starter; if they're not going for Shields, then maybe a flyer on Beachy who can be a May callup or something when he's healthy. All that said, they've had a good offseason and they have to depend at least a little on some good luck.

 

The Orioles got to the ALCS with the 28th ranked (third worst) starter xFIP in the majors last year. The Royals made the world series after having played Billy Butler for a full year.

 

Not everyone can have a roster like the Nationals, who are almost completely supplemented by Harper, Strasburg and Rendon, the products of being perennial trash for such a long time, or the Dodgers, who have a 250M payroll and are helmed by Friedman and Zaidi.

 

AA has probably done close to as much as he could have given the kind of limitations that he has to deal with.

 

I obviously understand this. I think it's important to give credit where credit is due, which I've done all offseason for the Martin, Donaldson, and Saunders moves. By the same token, I think poor roster depth is a pretty fair criticism - they really do give away large amounts of playing time to bad players, and I think this is something that is absolutely on the FO. They just haven't been good at stocking the bench with good players that have complementary skill sets. They've entered seasons with multiple replacement-level players on the 25-man from day 1, and it's been exacerbated by a typically weak crop of talent in the high minors ready to fill in.

[TwistedLogic]

I'd say more middle of the pack. But I also think there are a lot of really stupid GM's out there.

 

Dombrowski, Beane, Mozeliak, Freidi, Hoystein and maybe Daniels are the only ones I could conceivably put at the top of the pack and be confident that they wouldn't embarrass me shortly after, even though Beane and Dombrowski have both done some pretty questionable s*** in recent history. Maybe Huntington and Cherington and a few others could also be nearby, but most of everyone else is either mediocre or absolute garbage; I think it's a bit of a stretch to say there's another seven or so guys ahead of Anthopoulos without letting some pretty serious biases get in the way.

[TwistedLogic]

I obviously understand this. I think it's important to give credit where credit is due, which I've done all offseason for the Martin, Donaldson, and Saunders moves. By the same token, I think poor roster depth is a pretty fair criticism - they really do give away large amounts of playing time to bad players, and I think this is something that is absolutely on the FO. They just haven't been good at stocking the bench with good players that have complementary skill sets. They've entered seasons with multiple replacement-level players on the 25-man from day 1, and it's been exacerbated by a typically weak crop of talent in the high minors ready to fill in.

 

I think that's fair. I do think depth has been a pretty serious problem lately, but hopefully that's not as big of an issue anymore. They've made some seriously intriguing pick-ups from the waivers and through minor-league deals over the past few months. I felt that the OF absolutely could not afford a serious injury going into the next year, but I think I feel slightly better about it with Dirks back in the mix. Hopefully with Izturis, Kawasaki and Travis, theres at least a win or so of value there over the course of the year. To be honest my biggest fear is the rotation. I like what they have, but I'm just not comfortable with it for some reason.

[BTS]

I think it's something like this right now:

 

Hoyer

Jocketty

Antonetti

Zaidi

Dombrowski

Beane

Huntington

Sabean

Mozeliak

 

a bunch of guys

 

Zduriencik

Moore

Stewart

Hart

Amaro

 

As things stand right now, I don't think you can convincingly argue AA out of the "bunch of guys" tier, in either direction.

[burlingtonbandit]

The Canadian dollar has gone to garbage as well, I assume it doesn't matter this season, but this could be bad if it stays this low.

 

Like you said its a long term thing but should't effect payroll this season. Rogers is such a massive company they have US accounts. It would however effect their revenue this year and payroll in future years.