From goat to hero in 3 moves

[Nox]

I went there a month ago for the first time in a year just to see what happened over there...I thought the patients from the mental health ward managed to login to the computers.

 

I broke down, went over there and this is the type of leading edge analysis I found in the first thread that I opened:

 

From resident ******** spankster01 (Not Spanky)

 

"I am starting to get on board with this momentum of moves. I really am but I have to issues with this.1. If AA keeps this momentum up all the way up to resigning Cabrera and landing a top rotation pitcher and moving either Dickey or Buehrlee or Happ, I a completely on board. I am concerned that AA will stop short as he has done before.

2. AA needs to balance the money vs trade thing. We don't need a completely gutted farm.

3. I think with these acquisitions I like to think that second base will be ok with Goins and Izturis. Let Pompey have CF. Start stacking up on pitching."

 

.....

[Captain Adama]

I broke down, went over there and this is the type of leading edge analysis I found in the first thread that I opened:

 

From resident ******** spankster01 (Not Spanky)

 

"I am starting to get on board with this momentum of moves. I really am but I have to issues with this.1. If AA keeps this momentum up all the way up to resigning Cabrera and landing a top rotation pitcher and moving either Dickey or Buehrlee or Happ, I a completely on board. I am concerned that AA will stop short as he has done before.

2. AA needs to balance the money vs trade thing. We don't need a completely gutted farm.

3. I think with these acquisitions I like to think that second base will be ok with Goins and Izturis. Let Pompey have CF. Start stacking up on pitching."

 

.....

 

*twitch*

[bendera3]

Hurl - I've seen you kill a man with your bare hands over a debate regarding Bobby Hurley's douchiness. I cannot vouch for the statement you make.

 

Bobby Hurley's a douche?

[Nox]

there's no reliable way to sabermetrically evaluate high school amateurs. You still need scouts.

 

A couple of things:

 

1) You're absolutely correct in saying that scouting is of utmost importance in highschool as the numbers are almost useless. This however diminishes rapidly as you move up the levels of pro ball.

 

2) "Sabermetrics" does not mean solely look at recorded event outcomes from games. Rather it means tying those outcomes together with scouting reports in a way that makes the most sense. A way that you've tested. A way that you can tease out actual predictive power.

 

A lot of the people on these boards would probably alienate their scouts within the first year on the job.

 

You wouldn't alienate the people you think are useless because you would fire them on day 1 (or as soon as possible) or not hire them in the first place. Consciously retaining employees who you deem to be useless makes zero sense for anybody.

 

I also think the false dichotomy being constructed here is pretty stupid. Just because you value/understand/leverage analytics does not mean that you cannot build proper business relationships. Silicon Valley wouldn't be a thing if smart technical guys were incapable of doing smart business things. Half of Wall Street is on the Asperger's spectrum and they spin deals just fine.

[Nox]

*twitch*

 

"AA needs to balance the money vs trade thing."

 

We must never forget the money vs trade thing.

[Nox]

Bobby Hurley's a douche?

 

Didn't say that. Last person who I've heard say this is buried somewhere up by Blue Mountain.

[cusstown]

When was the last time he negotiated a killer extension for a player? You'll note that the answer to that is "not since Sartori left to work for Apple". If he gets credit for having Sartori on staff while those extensions took place (he should) he also loses credit for letting Sartori be poached. Front office talent retention is absolutely part of his job.

 

Are you really faulting the guy for losing somebody to f***ing Apple of all companies?

[JFD]

this thread is too early. our pitching still sucks, remember?

[Nox]

Are you really faulting the guy for losing somebody to f***ing Apple of all companies?

 

Have you worked for Apple? Do you know people who have worked there? It's not all sunshine and candy scented mock turtlenecks.

 

A low level manager there is at best a lateral career move to an AGM role in baseball.

[TwistedLogic]

I also think the false dichotomy being constructed here is pretty stupid. Just because you value/understand/leverage analytics does not mean that you cannot build proper business relationships. Silicon Valley wouldn't be a thing if smart technical guys were incapable of doing smart business things. Half of Wall Street is on the Asperger's spectrum and they spin deals just fine.

 

I completely agree. If this was true, Beane, Friedman and Zaidi wouldn't be where they are right now. My direction of that post was more towards the idea TheHurl offered, that you could pick up someone off this forum, put them in a front office, and have them build a better team than AA. I just don't agree with that at all. Just because someone is adept at evaluating advanced statistics or has a decent grasp of player value, that doesn't mean they would immediately succeed in a role where, like you said, they have to hire people to cover all of the other bases. Just because you know your stats doesn't mean you'll hire the right scouts. It doesn't mean you'll succeed in that atmosphere or be able to deal with the pressure of that job. There's so many more factors involved.

[ElNik2013]

Holy f***.

 

First off, the trade sucked balls both in context and in hindsight. That's already been said.

 

Nobody gives a soft turd about the baseball fight. That's just a hilarious point to bring up.

 

3.9 WAR in 2013 paid for his entire contract and then some.

Projected for 1.7 WAR in 2015, only getting paid $5M. Should return about $10M in surplus value next year.

 

 

 

Not that I liked the Marlins trade, but Escobar was offloaded for PR reasons so both of you are incorrect. It was either eat his reamaining salary or find someone to take him and that trade provided the opportunity.

 

Also, funny how no one has given credit to AA for acquiring Escobar in the first place.

 

Anyway, not my debate, but I'd thought I'd point this out.

[ElNik2013]

Also, if Kratz has this amazing value, why is he still a back-up catcher in KC?

 

 

You'd think a smart team will trade what it would take to land him.

[o2cui2i]

People's performance at their job isn't necessarily static. He spent 2-3 years making awful decision after awful decision, but absolutely nailed the Martin and Donaldson moves. Maybe it means he's learned things or listens to smart people that he previously ignored or didn't have around (a la Sabean and GMDM). Maybe he's the same clueless fool he's appeared to be since 2012 and these moves aren't actually indicative of an improved process. The offseason has gone better than anyone could have expected though.

 

I still find it strange that he suddenly deviated from his constant mantra of build to be a constant contender, to lets make some really bad deals and screw up our farm.

 

I still think Beeston got in his ear and pushed him into something that he didn't want to do.

[TheHurl]

Also, if Kratz has this amazing value, why is he still a back-up catcher in KC?

 

 

You'd think a smart team will trade what it would take to land him.

 

KC's a smart team? KC values defense yes, but that really could be the old school view that pitching and defense wins championships. I'm not sold that Dayton Moore believes in Defensive metrics. Which pretty much answers your question. Although Kratz framing advantage over Perez (which is huge) is negated by all the other parts of Perez's game including his ability to block balls and control the running game.

 

And most of the smart teams have solid framing catchers already.

[ElNik2013]

KC's a smart team? KC values defense yes, but that really could be the old school view that pitching and defense wins championships. I'm not sold that Dayton Moore believes in Defensive metrics. Which pretty much answers your question. Although Kratz framing advantage over Perez (which is huge) is negated by all the other parts of Perez's game including his ability to block balls and control the running game.

 

And most of the smart teams have solid framing catchers already.

 

 

Didn't TB take on Heath Bell's remaining $ just to get Ryan Hanigan?

 

Just saying they could've just traded their own version of Brad Lincoln to RAJ for Kratz and gotten Rasmussen as a throw-in to boot.

 

You're probably right though, in saying that smart teams already have good framers, but this goes to show us that Kratz is valued by some, but not by enough GM's to get you much of a return.

[Jimcanuck]

Imagine if AA kept Napoli.... would Wells for Napoli be regarded as the worst trade in the history of the game or what?

 

Hated the Gomes trade from the moment it was made. Ability to play multiple positions, good approach at the plate, good makeup. This was all evident in his short time in TO

 

Dickey trade was a clusterf***

[ElNik2013]

Some context for the Marlins trade:

 

1 - Retooling/rebuilding had taken a major setback with the injuries to Drabek, Hutchison and Romero's implosion.

 

2 - Team finished the season in tatters with the added negative of Escobar's homophobic joke, or whatever you wish to call it.

 

3 - It had to be embarrassing to the franchise that John Farrell had bolted for a division rival, even if he sucks.

 

4 - Absent major acquisitions, the team would've gone into the 2013 season not only expecting to lose 90-100 games, but also lower attendance, tv ratings and overall interest in the team.

 

5 - I don't remember the other points I was gonna bring up.

 

 

They went into the off season in a sort of desperate mode with the mindset that striking out in making major acquisitions was not gonna be acceptable. Once they struck out on Peavy and Sanchez, the Marlins trade became too tempting to pass up (2 SP, Jose Reyes, a possible 2B solution), as it would be like killing 3 birds with 1 shot.

[ElNik2013]

Also regarding the inclusion of Escobar in The Marlins Trade:

 

 

If the Marlins were asking for Escobar to be included, why would they turn around and trade him away when they even kept Jeff Mathis?

 

It's more likely that AA was told to get rid of him after the homophobic slur and he asked for time to find a taker and the Marlins accepted to take him instead of sending more $ to the Jays.

[G-Snarls]

Some context for the Marlins trade:

 

1 - Retooling/rebuilding had taken a major setback with the injuries to Drabek, Hutchison and Romero's implosion.

 

2 - Team finished the season in tatters with the added negative of Escobar's homophobic joke, or whatever you wish to call it.

 

3 - It had to be embarrassing to the franchise that John Farrell had bolted for a division rival, even if he sucks.

 

4 - Absent major acquisitions, the team would've gone into the 2013 season not only expecting to lose 90-100 games, but also lower attendance, tv ratings and overall interest in the team.

 

5 - I don't remember the other points I was gonna bring up.

 

 

They went into the off season in a sort of desperate mode with the mindset that striking out in making major acquisitions was not gonna be acceptable. Once they struck out on Peavy and Sanchez, the Marlins trade became too tempting to pass up (2 SP, Jose Reyes, a possible 2B solution), as it would be like killing 3 birds with 1 shot.

 

There was plenty of reason to do it, rightly or wrongly

 

Johnson and Bonifacio were such unmitigated disasters though. What a mess.

[ElNik2013]

Let's face it, those who thought The Marlins Trade was franchise-crippling were wrong.

 

Let's 2-face it, those who thought AA wouldn't be able to rebuild the farm system after Both Trades were wrong.

 

 

On the other hand, AA's teams haven't won jack, so there's also that.

[ElNik2013]

There was plenty of reason to do it

 

Johnson and Bonifacio were such unmitigated disasters though. What a mess.

 

 

 

 

It was a mess that year, but the team did sell lots of tickets, tv ratings were good and interest in the team was high as well. If they had done nothing, they would've gone into the season with the expectation to lose 90-100 games and none of the prospects traded would've helped much (including D'Arnaud who was injured that season).

 

Just trying to point out that it's not as black/white as some make it out to be.

[ElNik2013]

At the end of the day, the f***ing owners of the team think AA is good enough to be the GM of the team they f***ing own so who gives a f***.

 

Seriously though, AA's probably in the 10-15 range of GM's, maybe slightly better right now although that's not saying much when the D-Backs owners go from Towers to Stewart back-to-back...haha.

 

 

I'll say this, huge props to him for the farm, without which, he wouldn't have been able to make any of his trades, whether it's The Marlins and Dickey Trades or some of his good ones. Unheralded draft picks like Graveman, Nolin, Pillar and Pompey have made The Show, but I think guys like Cole and Burns ( if they don't lose them in the Rule-V draft), will end up providing some value as well. There are a couple of other lower round picks I'm forgetting.

 

Funny, isn't it? Several of us thought the Happ trade was trash, but hey, looky here, he's turned Happ into Saunders.

[TheHurl]

When JFaS gives Kratz that $15M a year value it's obviously not real life as no one is going to give Kratz that value. But also I'm not sure of the exact numbers (maybe he can share) but I believe there were at least 20 other catchers ahead of Kratz (if they were also expand out to 100 or so starts (or whatever number he used for Kratz. The point is that catching is a really important position and having a replacement level or below catcher (once framing is calculated) shouldn't be acceptable to any team.

 

As for Hanigan, he was coveted because of his framing, defense, and his bat was projected to be better than what it was in 2013.

 

I'm just spit-balling numbers here but a team like the Marlins could go with a Catcher platoon of Caleb Joseph (who was very good against lefties in the minors) and Francisco Cervelli (who had a great year against righties, although that can't be expected to repeat). Save like 10M over the next two years and improve their team by about 4 wins each year (this is very estimated numbers I am doing in my head, and don't really have good split estimates on hand)

[TheHurl]

Also regarding the inclusion of Escobar in The Marlins Trade:

 

 

If the Marlins were asking for Escobar to be included, why would they turn around and trade him away when they even kept Jeff Mathis?

 

It's more likely that AA was told to get rid of him after the homophobic slur and he asked for time to find a taker and the Marlins accepted to take him instead of sending more $ to the Jays.

 

The whole Escobar situation was handled poorly from the start. What should have happened is that he should have genuinely apologized, The team should have apologized for not noticing it. The rest of the team should have spoke up and said "we noticed it and let Escobar out there with it, we are as much to blame". Whether any of it was true or not it could have been done differently

 

Instead no one had a clue what to say or do and Reyes came out and said things like "this is nothing in our country". As an org (and in no way am I blaming AA here) you don't let a great value guy get run out of town because of a PR disaster in an incident where no laws were broken. I don't advocate what was done but there are professionals that handle these things and they should have been brought in right away and gave everyone a script.

[Boxcar]

I have been bashed continually for my support of AA and the Jays front office. 90 % of this board has called for AA,s head for the last 2 years. he makes 3 moves and suddenly he is smart again.

 

The thing I have always pointed out is they have drafted well, better than most teams. No team can make all these moves without drafting the prospects that make this possible.

 

Now go get a starter and build a bull pen Alex

 

So...you made a thread to pat yourself on the back?

[Boxcar]

We all make terrible decisions sometimes, like drafting Brett Lawrie in the 2nd round of a 20 team dynasty league. The key is to make more good decisions than bad, and hit the occasional home run.

 

This f***in guy

[King]

"From greatest of all time to hero in 3 moves"

[ElNik2013]

The whole Escobar situation was handled poorly from the start. What should have happened is that he should have genuinely apologized, The team should have apologized for not noticing it. The rest of the team should have spoke up and said "we noticed it and let Escobar out there with it, we are as much to blame". Whether any of it was true or not it could have been done differently

 

Instead no one had a clue what to say or do and Reyes came out and said things like "this is nothing in our country". As an org (and in no way am I blaming AA here) you don't let a great value guy get run out of town because of a PR disaster in an incident where no laws were broken. I don't advocate what was done but there are professionals that handle these things and they should have been brought in right away and gave everyone a script.

 

 

I agree. I think Rios was given away for PR reasons as well, but I may be misremembering again.

 

 

As I said above, I believe the Marlins took Escobar in the trade instead of sending more money to the Blue Jays as I don't see why the Marlins would've been demanding that Escobar be included in the trade.

[jkun41]

"From greatest of all time to hero in 3 moves"

 

I'm going to assume the OP is around my age (~25) or older. Growing up we often used the term "goat" for the guy left with most or all of the blame when something goes wrong (probably taken from scapegoat.)

 

Example: Reimer was the goat for the Leafs pathetic collapse against Boston.

 

Not to be confused with GOAT (Greatest Of All Time.)

[TheHurl]

I'm going to assume the OP is around my age (~25) or older. Growing up we often used the term "goat" for the guy left with most or all of the blame when something goes wrong (probably taken from scapegoat.)

 

Example: Reimer was the goat for the Leafs pathetic collapse against Boston.

 

Not to be confused with GOAT (Greatest Of All Time.)

 

Yes KGM would be over 25 (x2) and yes "the goat" comes from scapegoat.