Where Should the Jays Spend the Majority of Their Remaining Money This Offseason?

[L54]

Brandon McCarthy plz

[Governator]

Value of having an ace in Toronto would be less than having one in Tampa or Kansas for example b/c he would be backed by higher run support. In a lot of these games, the run support could more than easily be enough for a replacement level pitcher to win the game in Toronto (b/c of the crazy OBP driven offence) as opposed to in mediocre offence teams and the money will be better spent on factors that could contribute everyday like defence and the bullpen (ASSUMING there's a budget).

 

Except this has been the Blue Jays approach for the better part of the past decade. Load up on offense = never getting it done. It's been proven year after year here, replacing Happ with Sanchez is not getting them there even if we say their defense has improved & they now have a framing catcher. With the money saved, a top of the rotation starter with cheap relievers would net this team more wins imo.

[Olerud363]

You're the idiot, this is not 1993 nor do we have an offense near that good, nor will be be lucky enough to face teams with the same crap staff the Jays faced that year. One exception does not a rule make, that is logical fallacy. Scoring was also way higher then then it is now.

 

Did I say there was only one way to win?? And you call me the idiot? As this team currently is, a started or more pitching is the way to go, the offense is already very good. Learn to read. Look at all the Ws teams since 93...most had top flight pitching, and an ace. Jays 93 are not the norm, we won't have a team that consistently hits like that, we don't have olerud, Alomar, Molitor all hitting .330 +. Injuries are almost guaranteed to the staff, and we have a tonne of question marks and need bullpen as well. It is not just starting pitching we need, bullpen is a thing bro.

 

2008 Phillies, 2009 Yankees, 2011 Cardinals.

 

2011 cardinals were first in offense. Their pitching staff was led by a past prime Chris Carpenter 11-9 3.45, other notables Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. They were first in the league in runs despite having no .330 hitters.

 

2013 Red Sox, OK pitching, but an offense first team.

 

2006 Cardinals - Carpenter was good... behind him they had crap.

[Olerud363]

You're the idiot, this is not 1993 nor do we have an offense near that good, nor will be be lucky enough to face teams with the same crap staff the Jays faced that year. One exception does not a rule make, that is logical fallacy. Scoring was also way higher then then it is now.

 

Did I say there was only one way to win?? And you call me the idiot? As this team currently is, a started or more pitching is the way to go, the offense is already very good. Learn to read. Look at all the Ws teams since 93...most had top flight pitching, and an ace. Jays 93 are not the norm, we won't have a team that consistently hits like that, we don't have olerud, Alomar, Molitor all hitting .330 +. Injuries are almost guaranteed to the staff, and we have a tonne of question marks and need bullpen as well. It is not just starting pitching we need, bullpen is a thing bro.

 

You are a dangerous individual because you talk about science and logical falicy's but know nothing of science and logical falicies. You are a mean spirited charlaton who is actually against science, and logic and thinking.

 

You've repeatedly made outrageous statements like "we can get to the playoffs but need an ace to win".

 

We have Dickey, Bheurle, Hutchison, Stroman and the upside of Norris and Sanchez and an improved defense. There is every possibility that this staff could be very good.

 

We could get Jon Lester as he would be your "ACE"... but Oakland tried that... why didn't they win??

 

LA had Kershaw and Grienke. Nobody is more of an ace then Kershaw. He is worth a lot. Grienke is about the same as Bumgarner.

 

LA had a super-off-the-charts legendary ACE... backed up by another regular ACE. But they did not win.

[baloojayz]

Except this has been the Blue Jays approach for the better part of the past decade. Load up on offense = never getting it done. It's been proven year after year here, replacing Happ with Sanchez is not getting them there even if we say their defense has improved & they now have a framing catcher. They also had a framing catcher in Molina a few years back, they were 10th and 11th in ERA (AL) those 2 years and that was during the Romero all-star days. With the money saved, a top of the rotation starter with cheap relievers would net this team more wins imo.

 

That's exactly it! The team AA has assembled now will surprise a lot of people. Even though we had an offensively minded team in 2011, they don't compare to the potential of this years team. The key difference? OBP

In 2011 50% of our regulars had an OBP under .300 LOL, not BA, OBP

In 2014 we were much better and also had a much better result.

When Boston was great a few years back and even NY, you'd notice they would grind out every frekin at bat. They were good offensively not because they could hit homers and strike out a lot, but more cuz they were good hitters and got on base and understood situational hitting. IMO there is a huge difference in a team that hits a lot of homeruns and scores a lot of runs vs a team that scores a lot of runs but not necessarily via HR. The BJs have been the swing for the fences kind of offense the last decade or so.

Basically, I expect strikeouts to be down further this year with Lawrie, Francisco, & Rasmus gone, and hopefully less of Goins helps team batting overall as well. Melky leaving will suck though. I think you see what I'm getting at. Ofcourse SP isn't useless, but I feel a back end (3-4)SP and 2 shutdown RP will get us a lot further than James shields and a trial experiment in the BP.

[Olerud363]

Except this has been the Blue Jays approach for the better part of the past decade. Load up on offense = never getting it done. It's been proven year after year here, replacing Happ with Sanchez is not getting them there even if we say their defense has improved & they now have a framing catcher. With the money saved, a top of the rotation starter with cheap relievers would net this team more wins imo.

 

The Blue Jays rarely have a good offense.

 

2014 4th in runs

2013 8th in runs

2012 7th in runs

2011 6th in runs

2010 6th in runs

 

We are OK. Not great. Ussually a tad above average. People think it is a good offense because of the HOMMMERZZZZ...

[Olerud363]

IMO there is a huge difference in a team that hits a lot of homeruns and scores a lot of runs vs a team that scores a lot of runs but not necessarily via HR. The BJs have been the swing for the fences kind of offense the last decade or so.

 

No runs are runs. There is nothing wrong with swinging for the fences. Most high homer teams also have good on base percentage.

 

2009 Yankees - 244 HOMERZZZZ 915 runs 663 walks (world series champions)

2010 Blue Jays - 256 HOMERZZZZ 755 runs 471 walks

 

As an independent variable homerzz are good. As long as the overlall approach is sound. Blue Jays high homer teams have been bad because they were to aggressive. Patient teams hit Hommmerzzz too. And that combination is good.

 

Homerzzzz are good as long as the team is not run by an idiot manager and hitting coach who want a .300 team on base percentage instead of .340

[baloojayz]

You are a dangerous individual because you talk about science and logical falicy's but know nothing of science and logical falicies. You are a mean spirited charlaton who is actually against science, and logic and thinking.

 

You've repeatedly made outrageous statements like "we can get to the playoffs but need an ace to win".

 

We have Dickey, Bheurle, Hutchison, Stroman and the upside of Norris and Sanchez and an improved defense. There is every possibility that this staff could be very good.

 

We could get Jon Lester as he would be your "ACE"... but Oakland tried that... why didn't they win??

 

LA had Kershaw and Grienke. Nobody is more of an ace then Kershaw. He is worth a lot. Grienke is about the same as Bumgarner.

 

LA had a super-off-the-charts legendary ACE... backed up by another regular ACE. But they did not win.

Well said. Just look at KC as an example of how good hitting and base-running can win over SP. There is no formula that works all the time, there are different ways to win and the reason they work is they are very specialized. KC had maybe the best BP of any of those teams and played a style that let them use that to their advantage.

 

Why do you think Detroit lost with Price, Verlander, etc? Surely they had the ultimate team. They had bats but no BP. They tried to better their SP instead.

[Olerud363]

What the hell is wrong with people????

 

This is very simple. Score runs. Prevent runs.

 

If you are not good at Logic or math then ask people who are.

 

For example

 

"Hello, my name is old skool and I am a little disabled in terms of thinking. I have a question for those who think more clearly, perhaps Mr. JFAS, or Mr. Nox or other qualified individual could answer. Now here is my question. I think the Blue Jays need an ace, and I have a candidate in John Lester, or maybe James Shields. Lester would cost 150 million and Shields 100 millions. Is this a good use of funds??? I beleive because they are an "ACE" they will lead to a world series victory. Without an ace the probability of a world series victory is apr. 0.000%. With the Ace it rises to 70.8%. Is my thinking sound??? Thank you."

[baloojayz]

No runs are runs. There is nothing wrong with swinging for the fences. Most high homer teams also have good on base percentage.

 

2009 Yankees - 244 HOMERZZZZ 915 runs 663 walks (world series champions)

2010 Blue Jays - 256 HOMERZZZZ 755 runs 471 walks

 

As an independent variable homerzz are good. As long as the overlall approach is sound. Blue Jays high homer teams have been bad because they were to aggressive. Patient teams hit Hommmerzzz too. And that combination is good.

 

Homerzzzz are good as long as the team is not run by an idiot manager and hitting coach who want a .300 team on base percentage instead of .340

 

Basically what I was too brain dead to say.

[baloojayz]

What the hell is wrong with people????

 

This is very simple. Score runs. Prevent runs.

 

If you are not good at Logic or math then ask people who are.

 

For example

 

"Hello, my name is old skool and I am a little disabled in terms of thinking. I have a question for those who think more clearly, perhaps Mr. JFAS, or Mr. Nox or other qualified individual could answer. Now here is my question. I think the Blue Jays need an ace, and I have a candidate in John Lester, or maybe James Shields. Lester would cost 150 million and Shields 100 millions. Is this a good use of funds??? I beleive because they are an "ACE" they will lead to a world series victory. Without an ace the probability of a world series victory is apr. 0.000%. With the Ace it rises to 70.8%. Is my thinking sound??? Thank you."

 

Haha wth??? lol

[Olerud363]

Basically what I was too brain dead to say.

 

Sorry if I seem rude. It is only directed at one guy. The "scientificreason" poster is a guy who has posted for a long time under different names. "Old Skool" and "Cooler Heads Prevail".

 

He sort of trolls people... He acts like he's this old school expert and knows 100% what is right for the Jays... all other opinions are just new-fangled hogwash.

 

Last May when the Jays were hot he guaranteed 95 wins... then I think even as they cooled off he guaranteed 90. A bunch of people stuck with predictions in the low 80s... and were proven right.

 

So the guy has a history and even though his comments may seem innocent, or at least not worthy of this much anger... believe me he is trying to get under certain people's skin... and succeeding I guess.

[Governator]

JA Happ at his best is a 1.3 WAR player. Jon Lester at his best is a 6 WAR player. Replacing one with the other can make a big difference in the win column for this club. Great we have some awesome OBP line up, it doesn't mean we should completely avoid the starting rotation, this team is trying to make up 13G on the O's.

[Westfan]

I want to add two quality relievers

 

Everyone talks about getting an ace for the playoffs but this team isn't going to the playoffs with that bull pen. Add to that if there is only 20 mil to spend no ace will sign for that. Shields is not an ace.

 

Get at least two decent relievers and save the trade chips for the deadline. Then if there is money to spend get an upgrade on Estrada. Do not trade Norris or Sanchez

[Angrioter]

Medlen, McCarthy, Liriano

[LongTimeReader]

JA Happ at his best is a 1.3 WAR player. Jon Lester at his best is a 6 WAR player. Replacing one with the other can make a big difference in the win column for this club. Great we have some awesome OBP line up, it doesn't mean we should completely avoid the starting rotation, this team is trying to make up 13G on the O's.

 

In 2012 he had 1.8 WAR

[labadee]

JA Happ at his best is a 1.3 WAR player. Jon Lester at his best is a 6 WAR player. Replacing one with the other can make a big difference in the win column for this club. Great we have some awesome OBP line up, it doesn't mean we should completely avoid the starting rotation, this team is trying to make up 13G on the O's.

 

well.. if it's any consolation, the current O's as it stands is would be several games back of the 2014 O's based on their offseason so far. We wouldn't have to make up 13 whole games if that makes sense. Their roster has regressed a bit

[Olerud363]

JA Happ at his best is a 1.3 WAR player. Jon Lester at his best is a 6 WAR player. Replacing one with the other can make a big difference in the win column for this club. Great we have some awesome OBP line up, it doesn't mean we should completely avoid the starting rotation, this team is trying to make up 13G on the O's.

 

You can't think about it that way. You have to look at averages and projections. Lester is about a 2-2.5 win upgrade over Happ.

 

Otherwise you could say Nick Markakis at his best is 7.5 WAR and Saunders 2 WAR so getting Nick Markakis would be a huge boost.

 

Because Lester is coming off a good season there is also a tendency to over-rate him.

 

Liriano, McCarthy, and a few others would be better even though they are not "aces!"

 

Barry Zito looked like Lester once

[Olerud363]

Haha wth??? lol

 

sorry, it was directed to this guy who was once known as 'old skool', then 'cooler heads prevail', then 'scientific reason'.

 

When everybody hated Cito this guy went on and on about how great Cito was and how everybody was an idiot.

 

When everybody thought the Jays would win 82 last year (even when they were hot people said "calm down it's an 82 win team") old skool went nuts telling us the Jays would win 95. Then he quit the board after the Jays went back to .500.

 

Now he is back as "scientific reason"

[ScientificReason]

Sorry if I seem rude. It is only directed at one guy. The "scientificreason" poster is a guy who has posted for a long time under different names. "Old Skool" and "Cooler Heads Prevail".

 

He sort of trolls people... He acts like he's this old school expert and knows 100% what is right for the Jays... all other opinions are just new-fangled hogwash.

 

Last May when the Jays were hot he guaranteed 95 wins... then I think even as they cooled off he guaranteed 90. A bunch of people stuck with predictions in the low 80s... and were proven right.

 

So the guy has a history and even though his comments may seem innocent, or at least not worthy of this much anger... believe me he is trying to get under certain people's skin... and succeeding I guess.

 

WTF??? I am new from a few months ago and am neither of those people, what is wrong with you???? I was also not trolling by simply stating I think we needed pitching, you then went on a rampage and trolled me, with insults, and are now accusing me of being someone I am not?? You need help dude, and also need to look in the mirror to see what a troll is. I have also not been trolling since I got here. Idiot.

[ScientificReason]

2008 Phillies, 2009 Yankees, 2011 Cardinals.

 

2011 cardinals were first in offense. Their pitching staff was led by a past prime Chris Carpenter 11-9 3.45, other notables Kyle Lohse and Jake Westbrook. They were first in the league in runs despite having no .330 hitters.

 

2013 Red Sox, OK pitching, but an offense first team.

 

2006 Cardinals - Carpenter was good... behind him they had crap.

 

All those teams had better pitching and some certified aces, like Lester, Carpenter etc...

[Olerud363]

All those teams had better pitching and some certified aces, like Lester, Carpenter etc...

 

2011 cardinals were 8th in pitching. Carpenter unfortunately had lost his certification as an "ace" by that time.

 

Unless you want to argue that the "ace" certification is indefinate... then Dickey is an ace, if Carpenter didn't lose his certification, Dickey shouldn't either.

 

And in fact Buerhle has more "ace" credentials then Carpenter. Buerle has much higher lifetime WAR, similar peak value (6 WAR).

 

Buerhle is also "clutch" having won the World Series championship.

 

If Carpenter is an "ace" Buerhle is. In fact Buerle's career and peek arent't that far from Lester.

[Olerud363]

WTF??? I am new from a few months ago and am neither of those people, what is wrong with you???? I was also not trolling by simply stating I think we needed pitching, you then went on a rampage and trolled me, with insults, and are now accusing me of being someone I am not?? You need help dude, and also need to look in the mirror to see what a troll is. I have also not been trolling since I got here. Idiot.

 

If you are not "old skool" then I sincerely apologize... really I do. You sound a lot like him. But he was ussually pretty honest about who he was. So maybe you really aren't him.

[TheHurl]

There is only one thing that every team must have or do to win the in the playoffs...that is make the playoffs.

[Dick_Pole]

I chose infielder...but now that I had a chance to think about it, a top of the rotation starting pitcher (through FA) is what this team needs the most to win in the playoffs.

 

My original view was I just wanted the team to make the playoffs and shoring up the infield is where I think the most improvement could come from. Now that I think the team has a decent chance to make the playoffs in its current state, winning in the playoffs is the next step. And I agree the Jays need an "ace" who can pitch in the big game especially if it comes down to a one game playoff.

 

The caveat to this is I don't want the Jays to trade for an ace. They would have to give up too much for my liking. I like the team's chances in 2015 and 2016 with this roster. I'll like the team's chances slightly more in 2015 and a lot less in 2016 if a trade for an ace results in one of Hutchison and Stroman and one or two of Norris, Sanchez or Osuna as a starting point going the other way.

[burlingtonbandit]

There is only one thing that every team must have or do to win the in the playoffs...that is make the playoffs.

 

Exactly. This isn't the NBA where the better team almost always wins in a 7 game series and individual performances are much more consistent. MLB postseason has so many variables and all it takes is a few bounces for a team to win a couple games.

[TheHurl]

Exactly. This isn't the NBA where the better team almost always wins in a 7 game series and individual performances are much more consistent. MLB postseason has so many variables and all it takes is a few bounces for a team to win a couple games.

 

Note to all GM's....acquire bounces:D

 

http://www.jumphouses.com/_borders/SportsArenafield.JPG

[G-Snarls]

Everyone talks about getting an ace for the playoffs but this team isn't going to the playoffs with that bull pen. Add to that if there is only 20 mil to spend no ace will sign for that. Shields is not an ace.

 

Get at least two decent relievers and save the trade chips for the deadline. Then if there is money to spend get an upgrade on Estrada. Do not trade Norris or Sanchez

 

Agree with every word

[xposbrad]

I think this club is in a position that it needs to overpay to get Lester. The window with JB/EE is really this year and next. They can't go half ass and just hope everything falls into place, the SP is relying on a 35 year old and 40 year old to be the #1 and #2. They need an ace right now, even if it means overpaying.

[G-Snarls]

I think this club is in a position that it needs to overpay to get Lester. The window with JB/EE is really this year and next. They can't go half ass and just hope everything falls into place, the SP is relying on a 35 year old and 40 year old to be the #1 and #2. They need an ace right now, even if it means overpaying.

 

Stroman Hutchison and Sanchez say Hi