If Happ, Stroman and Hutch win one more game each

[Dick_Pole]

The 2014 Jays will have done something no Jays team has ever done before. That's have 5 starters win at least 10 games in a year. Even in the World Series years they had at least one guy pitching like dogshit (Jack Morris) in the rotation. The closest they came was in 1990 when #5 starter John Cerutti had 9 wins. The 1991 team and 1987 team had 5 and 6 guys win 10+ each respectively, but a couple of those were relief pitchers.

 

I know pitcher wins get mocked a lot on this board. But they can tell you something about this team. There's been no embarrassing revolving door of Laffey, Wang, Ortiz type of also-rans. No Towers-like blow ups or Drabek disappointments this year. People complain about not having an ace, but I think the team has been very lucky this year to have 5 solid guys who have pitched well enough with an above average offense to give the team a decent chance every night.

[Vincent]

Uggh...

[Dick_Pole]

Uggh...

 

[burlingtonbandit]

If anything it tells you there hasn't been any injuries to the rotation outside Morrow. Knock on wood....

[G-Snarls]

I want the Jays to win as many games as possible. But I dread how many times next year we'll have to hear Buck and Tabby call Happ "a 10 game winner!!" next year.

[G-Snarls]

Tabby: "Don't forget, he was a 10 game winner last year"

 

Buck: "That's right Pat, and we both know how much those wins mean to a pitcher."

 

Tabby: "I know and they mean a LOT to me too. When I evaluate a pitcher it's the first thing I look at. It tells me if a guy can get it done on a consistent basis in the major leagues"

 

Buck: "So true. Now back to Edward EnCARnacion... He's 1 for 3 with a pair of doubles tonight"

Edited September 5, 2014 by G-Snarls

[NorthOf49]

I want the Jays to win as many games as possible. But I dread how many times next year we'll have to hear Buck and Tabby call Happ "a 10 game winner!!" next year.

We're still hearing about Brett Cecil being a "15 game winner" lol

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Wonder if Happ gets that option picked up for next year?

 

You could do a lot worse with your #5. You could probably put that 7M to use more efficiently though.

[BTS]

The pitching staff has been amazingly healthy. One of the benefits of guys like Dickey and Buehrle.

[jays76]

 

Where's Goldberg vs Gillberg? Now that's a classic!

[G-Snarls]

Wonder if Happ gets that option picked up for next year?

 

You could do a lot worse with your #5. You could probably put that 7M to use more efficiently though.

 

He's the only tough call. It's 6.7 M with a FREE buyout according to BR - is that right?

[shortstop]

well, picking up the option has value, whether as a jays starter for 2015 or for another rotation via trade.

 

His biggest adjustment this year is he isn't scared to throw his fastball & attacks hitters. And he's shut his trap since he's solidified himself as a starting 5 this year.

[BTS]

he's the only tough call. It's 6.7 m with a free buyout according to br - is that right?

 

200k iirc

[NorthOf49]

They should drop Happ. It's not always about $/WAR. Happ won't be valuable enough to the 2015 Blue Jays to warrant retaining at $6.7M; they have many capable starters and need the $.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

They should drop Happ. It's not always about $/WAR. Happ won't be valuable enough to the 2015 Blue Jays to warrant retaining at $6.7M; they have many capable starters and need the $.

 

I agree.

[Dick_Pole]

I want the Jays to win as many games as possible. But I dread how many times next year we'll have to hear Buck and Tabby call Happ "a 10 game winner!!" next year.

 

I'm hoping they'll call him a 14 game winner next year!

[Dick_Pole]

They should drop Happ. It's not always about $/WAR. Happ won't be valuable enough to the 2015 Blue Jays to warrant retaining at $6.7M; they have many capable starters and need the $.

 

Who would replace Happ internally, assuming Morrow is gone?

 

FWIW I expect Happ to have a better year next year than this one. It's like he's finally learning how to pitch in his 30's.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Who would replace Happ internally, assuming Morrow is gone?

 

FWIW I expect Happ to have a better year next year than this one. It's like he's finally learning how to pitch in his 30's.

 

92nd best xFIP in baseball this year and is only one year removed from a disastrous year. I just can't see him pitching better than he has this year.

 

Flyball pitcher without an elite ability to strike guys out is not a good recipe in the RC.

 

He's just not that good. He's a band-aid solution... A long man/spot starter.

[TheHurl]

They should drop Happ. It's not always about $/WAR. Happ won't be valuable enough to the 2015 Blue Jays to warrant retaining at $6.7M; they have many capable starters and need the $.

 

I'm intrigued to know what Happ gets in FA. My best guess is that he gets 2 years $15M.

[G-Snarls]

92nd best xFIP in baseball this year and is only one year removed from a disastrous year. I just can't see him pitching better than he has this year.

 

Flyball pitcher without an elite ability to strike guys out is not a good recipe in the RC.

 

He's just not that good. He's a band-aid solution... A long man/spot starter.

 

At a certain price point I like him as a BP arm/swing man. But Cecil and Loup are so good, and 6.7M - 0.2M is probably too much for a guy we don't really even want starting 30+ games. There are so many good free agent starters available this off season I'd really like AA to finally nab one. $ saved from Happ Rasmus Morrow Janssen Santos would help a lot in this regard. Won't hold breath though. I like what Happ provided this year but I don't want him in the rotation in 2015.

[glory]

Who would replace Happ internally, assuming Morrow is gone?

 

FWIW I expect Happ to have a better year next year than this one. It's like he's finally learning how to pitch in his 30's.

 

Could one of Sanchez, Norris, Nolin, or Graveman produce a 1-1.5 WAR over 150 innings?

 

If the answer to that is yes, then letting Happ go is a no brainer.

[Dick_Pole]

If they can go externally, that's one thing. But you have to look at it from AA's perspective, a lazy motherf***er with a one-track mind. I'd rather have that track focused on a MIF solution and dumping Morrow will provide some room for that. And shoring up the OF with Melky or an equivalent. Getting an upgrade on trash at 2B for $5-$10M is relatively easy. Getting an upgrade on Happ for >$7M is hard. Just being realistic with how this team will move forward in 2015.

[Dick_Pole]

Could one of Sanchez, Norris, Nolin, or Graveman produce a 1-1.5 WAR over 150 innings?

 

If the answer to that is yes, then letting Happ go is a no brainer.

 

The Jays got handed a gift with one rookie pitcher this year. Competing teams shouldn't be relying on luck to strike again. I suppose it's possible in March after spring training to re-evaluate.

[glory]

What 2B and LF's under the radar might be available?

 

I'm sure the Jays could do something like Happ and Izturis for Aaron Hill, but Hill has been awful this season.

[Dick_Pole]

92nd best xFIP in baseball this year and is only one year removed from a disastrous year. I just can't see him pitching better than he has this year.

 

Flyball pitcher without an elite ability to strike guys out is not a good recipe in the RC.

 

He's just not that good. He's a band-aid solution... A long man/spot starter.

 

92nd best and there's 30 teams with a 5 man rotation for 150 slots. 92nd best sounds like a solid back end starter to me who can hit the minimum innings required to be ranked by rate stats. Happ really hasn't had a "disastrous" year in a Jays uniform. This is his first full year relatively injury free with the Jays and it's not like his injuries have been chronic arm problems...freak accident and sore back.

 

His stats are ok, his stuff has potential for him to have more upside and his durability (which is a BIG one with this team) has been excellent this year.

[glory]

The Jays got handed a gift with one rookie pitcher this year. Competing teams shouldn't be relying on luck to strike again. I suppose it's possible in March after spring training to re-evaluate.

 

Stroman has a 2.5 WAR in 100 innings. That's amazing value. We wouldn't be needing that from Happ's replacement, though. We have league average or better innings eaters and two young starters with potential to improve. The last spot being a known mediocrity for $6.7M or a potential mediocrity (with much greater upside) for the minimum isn't a huge downgrade.

 

Replacing Melky and finding a 2B are far greater needs with no internal help on the way.

[G-Snarls]

Stroman has a 2.5 WAR in 100 innings. That's amazing value. We wouldn't be needing that from Happ's replacement, though. We have league average or better innings eaters and two young starters with potential to improve. The last spot being a known mediocrity for $6.7M or a potential mediocrity (with much greater upside) for the minimum isn't a huge downgrade.

 

Replacing Melky and finding a 2B are far greater needs with no internal help on the way.

 

Agree with most of this but I really think we're keeping Melky

[Governator]

I don't understand why so many get bent out of shape with the thought of extending Melky... I understand his defense is s*** by some standards (average in my mind, he has a pretty good arm) and he sports the 4th best OPS for LFers in the AL. Have fun replacing that production and attracting said player to come to TO.

[TheHurl]

What 2B and LF's under the radar might be available?

 

I'm sure the Jays could do something like Happ and Izturis for Aaron Hill, but Hill has been awful this season.

 

Mets have Murphy but he's not under the radar and a one year guy. Cubs have Valbuena but the Jays already dumped him. Scutaro will be available for free. Weeks had a rebound year and will be free agent (and screams AA guy).

[G-Snarls]

I don't understand why so many get bent out of shape with the thought of extending Melky... I understand his defense is s*** by some standards (average in my mind, he has a pretty good arm) and he sports the 4th best OPS for LFers in the AL. Have fun replacing that production and attracting said player to come to TO.

 

Right. And he apparetly wants to stay here.

 

Realistically we're only talking about upping his salary by 4-5M per season, while we let Rasmus and his 7+M walk, replaced by 2 league min guys. They can afford to keep Melky if they want to, AND THEY SHOULD.