Offseason roster thread 2014

[glory]

letting lind walk for 6.5 mil would be stupid. The others I can see, although if you're keeping dickey Thole and him are pretty much conjoined twins.

 

I disagree about Lind. He hits RHP very well, but there are more warts than positives with him. He can't stay healthy, and his injuries are typically not fluke injuries either. He can't play defense, with takes away value outside of his hitting. Most importantly, his presence takes up at least two, if not three, roster spots since you'll need a platoon bat plus someone in AAA stewing away in the event that Lind gets hurt (Francisco, Wallace, Dan Johnson, etc, types).

 

I'd honestly take the hit against RHP if they could find a 1B with neutral splits that could play even a little bit of defense, as I think Edwin will be a lot better/more durable if he is strictly a DH instead of sharing the role with Lind.

 

The obvious question then becomes who do you get to replace Lind? That would be easier to answer if I knew who was available. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on someone who is blocked in another organization. Maybe Josmil Pinto in Minnesota?

[Brenner]

I disagree about Lind. He hits RHP very well, but there are more warts than positives with him. He can't stay healthy, and his injuries are typically not fluke injuries either. He can't play defense, with takes away value outside of his hitting. Most importantly, his presence takes up at least two, if not three, roster spots since you'll need a platoon bat plus someone in AAA stewing away in the event that Lind gets hurt (Francisco, Wallace, Dan Johnson, etc, types).

 

I'd honestly take the hit against RHP if they could find a 1B with neutral splits that could play even a little bit of defense, as I think Edwin will be a lot better/more durable if he is strictly a DH instead of sharing the role with Lind.

 

The obvious question then becomes who do you get to replace Lind? That would be easier to answer if I knew who was available. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on someone who is blocked in another organization. Maybe Josmil Pinto in Minnesota?

 

This is silly, his defense is hardly an issue and a good team should have RH bench power bat as well as AAA depth anyway. Lind is not an overall great player but with his reasonable contract there are other issues to address. I'm not a huge fan either of a guy who can't seem to stay healthy as a DH but we are likely better off rolling the dice on a healthier year.

[KingKat]

Who is going to trade for him?

 

I made it pretty clear that if you don't cut him, you might be forced to keep him and that's not the end of the world. A solid return in a trade would be prefferable but a no point did I imply that it was likely to happen so I hope you had a good time going to rather extensive lengths to dismiss a point I never made. It's true that he's only a platoon bat but he's quite a good one, perhaps even exceptional. You wouldn't want a team full of Adam Linds but since he's under control and more than likely better value than any free agent that would come here, you don't just let him walk and waste the assett entirely. The thing is that you have to assemble a better bench overall. I you roster Lind, you can't have a bunch of Nolan Reimolds and Juan Francisco on your bench too. As I've argued many times, you can only have so many of these DH types. EE and Lind are pretty good assett in isolation but you need to build some defensive versatility around them for it to work out because players who only contribute on one side of the ball are not ideal and they defiitely put stress on your team in other areas.

[kgm1]

Last year, even though it was due mostly to contractually obligated raises to pre-existing players, they still boosted payroll by $22M. What was your "negative guy" prediction for the 2014 payroll, and how does being too optimistic in a prediction one year, yet still seeing a 15% bump in payroll relate to now calling for a 14% reduction in payroll?

I have run a poll in the off season every year as to what the budget would be . The payroll going into last off season was around 137mil because of existing contracts and Arb raises. We all knew what the payroll was going in. we voted what we thought it would go to. I think I expected it to go to 150 but I can't find the thread. many thought it would go as high as 170 mil.

[kgm1]

The only way they could safely get to 120M would be by trading Reyes for very little, using Goins at short, and making up for the offensive shortfall there by upgrading at another position.

 

Not for the faint of heart. Why 120M?

if you only exercise Lind,s option then fill with cheap players your right around 120.

[kgm1]

letting lind walk for 6.5 mil would be stupid. The others I can see, although if you're keeping dickey Thole and him are pretty much conjoined twins.

 

Lind and Thole,s options are the only ones i see getting picked up.

[saskjayfan]

I disagree about Lind. He hits RHP very well, but there are more warts than positives with him. He can't stay healthy, and his injuries are typically not fluke injuries either. He can't play defense, with takes away value outside of his hitting. Most importantly, his presence takes up at least two, if not three, roster spots since you'll need a platoon bat plus someone in AAA stewing away in the event that Lind gets hurt (Francisco, Wallace, Dan Johnson, etc, types).

 

I'd honestly take the hit against RHP if they could find a 1B with neutral splits that could play even a little bit of defense, as I think Edwin will be a lot better/more durable if he is strictly a DH instead of sharing the role with Lind.

 

The obvious question then becomes who do you get to replace Lind? That would be easier to answer if I knew who was available. I wouldn't mind taking a chance on someone who is blocked in another organization. Maybe Josmil Pinto in Minnesota?

 

Lind missed 2 and a half weeks due to his back this year. He missed a couple games last year due to the back, but did not have a DL stint. Lind missed most of his games due to a foul ball off his foot. How is that not a fluke. 72% of all pitches thrown are from right handers in the MLB. Lind plays better first base than EE. Lind's wrc+ is 139. Where are you going to find that for 6.5 mil on the free agent market. Give me a break.

[kgm1]

Uh, speaking of spending time arguing against a point that was never made ... You suggested, at worst, they could trade him. I simply pointed out that's not even a realistic alternative. So, my point was quite valid, but your repudiation was not.

 

Your point wasn't valid

Pirates wanted Lind last year but the jays asked for Walker. Brewers wanted lind too but didn't line up. There are teams out there that would take Lind at his salary ,not sure what you get back

[kgm1]

Lind missed 2 and a half weeks due to his back this year. He missed a couple games last year due to the back, but did not have a DL stint. Lind missed most of his games due to a foul ball off his foot. How is that not a fluke. 72% of all pitches thrown are from right handers in the MLB. Lind plays better first base than EE. Lind's wrc+ is 139. Where are you going to find that for 6.5 mil on the free agent market. Give me a break.

 

At 6.5 mil you can't replace the bat and in a contract year i expect him to work on his conditioning which is something Lindy is bad at. Pair him with john Mayberry and you have a pretty good platoon . Mayberry can play the OF, DH< and 1st

[KingKat]

Uh, speaking of spending time arguing against a point that was never made ... You suggested, at worst, they could trade him. I simply pointed out that's not even a realistic alternative. So, my point was quite valid, but your repudiation was not.

 

And apparently you didn't bother to read to the end of the sentence or read the next one. "At worst you trade him and even then only if the return is good. Being "forced" to keep him is not a negative scenario."

 

Admittedly, I could have phrased that better but I underestimated the difficulty you have comprehending less than perfect grammar.

[BTS]

If this team decides for some reason that they don't want to pay Lind $7.5 M, they will have no issues finding a taker. Buying him out would be ridiculous.

[KingKat]

If this team decides for some reason that they don't want to pay Lind $7.5 M, they will have no issues finding a taker. Buying him out would be ridiculous.

 

It's impossible to prove one way or the other whether there's a buyer. It's not a crazy assumption but as Moogy points out, it's impossible to prove through anything else than rumours so it's not a terribly productive avenue of discussion. I think the larger point is that even if there isn't a buyer, paying 1 million dollars to flush a reasonable contract down the toilet does nothing to improve this team's chance.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Do people actually think Lind nets a good return? He'd get a similar piece or a less than stellar prospect, stop imagining things.

[KingKat]

Do people actually think Lind nets a good return? He'd get a similar piece or a less than stellar prospect, stop imagining things.

 

It's doesn't matter. It's a moot point what the return is. The contract is reasonable. It's not the end of the world if you have to field him. It's prefferable than paying 1 million dollars to flush him down the toilet.

[reedjohnsonfan]

It's doesn't matter. It's a moot point what the return is. The contract is reasonable. It's not the end of the world if you have to field him. It's prefferable than paying 1 million dollars to flush him down the toilet.

 

Ok. I asked a question because I didn't want to read the last 4 pages. Thanks. He's an easily replaceable guy even at 7.5 million. It wasn't long ago everyone wanted him gone, he could easily once again turn into a poor hitter for his position.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Why did you fail to mention the two preceding years? Lind missed at least 20 games this year due to his back. And that's not counting the delay in his rehab due to his back issue flaring up again. He missed 5 the year before, 29 the year before that, and 24 the year before that.

 

And the point is, you don't WANT that on the free agent market. You don't go looking for it.

 

Are people forgetting Lind was useless for 3 years in a row? He's also on the wrong side of 30. He'd be an OK option but I really doubt his value.

[BTS]

It's impossible to prove one way or the other whether there's a buyer. It's not a crazy assumption but as Moogy points out, it's impossible to prove through anything else than rumours so it's not a terribly productive avenue of discussion. I think the larger point is that even if there isn't a buyer, paying 1 million dollars to flush a reasonable contract down the toilet does nothing to improve this team's chance.

 

There just isn't a reason to believe that there wouldn't be a market, aside from deliberately taking a contrarian stance. $7.5 M on a 1-year deal is fine value for a guy who will give you 1-1.5 wins. Just last offseaosn we saw Mike Morse net $6 million coming off a 79 wRC+ season. Lind has a skill set that doesn't get undervalued.

[reedjohnsonfan]

There just isn't a reason to believe that there wouldn't be a market, aside from deliberately taking a contrarian stance. $7.5 M on a 1-year deal is fine value for a guy who will give you 1-1.5 wins. Just last offseaosn we saw Mike Morse net $6 million coming off a 79 wRC+ season. Lind has a skill set that doesn't get undervalued.

 

You're projecting him at 1-1.5 WAR? I think that's generous. His chronic back problems and inconsistency throughout his career? It's not bad value but I don't think he nets anything worthwhile.

[BTS]

Are people forgetting Lind was useless for 3 years in a row? He's also on the wrong side of 30. He'd be an OK option but I really doubt his value.

 

PA vs. LHP

2010 = 24%

2011 = 27%

2012 = 27%

2013 = 19%

2014 = 13%

 

Lind was 'useless' for three years in a row because he wasn't used properly. He's Matt Joyce. A guy who's going to give you something in the vicinity of a 125-130 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, but who's limited to about 450 PA a season. That package is worth 1-2 wins over the course of a season, and on a low-risk 1-year term it's a pretty safe investment.

[Abomination]

You're projecting him at 1-1.5 WAR? I think that's generous. His chronic back problems and inconsistency throughout his career? It's not bad value but I don't think he nets anything worthwhile.

 

I don't see why that's generous. He's put up 1.8 WAR last year and 1.1 so far this year (in only 81 games)

[KingKat]

You don't chase good money after bad. And since he has a 500K buyout the following year, at most you can look at it as "flushing" 500K (1M - 500K), not 1M.

 

It's one million dollars payed all at once to flush two reasonable contract years down the toilet.

 

In that view, it's really an 8M option (including the 500K buyout in the subsequent year). Eating the 1M gives you the opportunity to rework the roster to better fit your needs.

 

You argue against the likelihood of Lind bringing back a good return on a trade but what's the likelihood AA puts the Lind money to better use if he dumps him altogether? I like those odds a lot less to be frank.

[BTS]

You argue against the likelihood of Lind bringing back a good return on a trade but what's the likelihood AA puts the Lind money to better use if he dumps him altogether? I like those odds a lot less to be frank.

 

You would be asking him to beat the market. I share your pessimism about his ability to do that.

[KingKat]

You would be asking him to beat the market. I share your pessimism about his ability to do that.

 

It's not just his ability. It's also the bad FA context (turf, foreign country, two decades without playoffs). It would be a challenge for any GM but AA especially seems unable to effectively re-organize a payroll. Remember all the speculation that the roster would be radically reconstructed before this season?

[reedjohnsonfan]

PA vs. LHP

2010 = 24%

2011 = 27%

2012 = 27%

2013 = 19%

2014 = 13%

 

Lind was 'useless' for three years in a row because he wasn't used properly. He's Matt Joyce. A guy who's going to give you something in the vicinity of a 125-130 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, but who's limited to about 450 PA a season. That package is worth 1-2 wins over the course of a season, and on a low-risk 1-year term it's a pretty safe investment.

 

Right so we agree. He's "Ok". Matt Joyce isn't worth a lot either. They are both serviceable-good platoon hitters who suck at defence.

[reedjohnsonfan]

I don't see why that's generous. He's put up 1.8 WAR last year and 1.1 so far this year (in only 81 games)

 

I still think when you factor in injury risk that's generous. He was bad because he hit against LHP, but he's also too much of an injury risk for a team to take him for anything more than a salary dump. You might get a useful bench player who's cheaper, that's about the best you can ask for.

[BTS]

Right so we agree. He's "Ok". Matt Joyce isn't worth a lot either. They are both serviceable-good platoon hitters who suck at defence.

 

All I've been saying is that he's worth his contract, and that if you buy him out, you're going to have a difficult time replacing his production for cheaper.

[reedjohnsonfan]

All I've been saying is that he's worth his contract, and that if you buy him out, you're going to have a difficult time replacing his production for cheaper.

 

That's fair I'm not trying to argue. I just didn't see what people are posting so I should have read more. Seemed like KingKat was saying you could get a nice return for him.

[saskjayfan]

Huh? This year was just as much of a "contract year" as next year will be. The Jays have a club option on him for next year. He was playing to get that picked up. Next year, if the Jays pick up the 2015 club option on him, they have a club option on him for 2016. Same situation.

 

the Yankees would pick up lind so fast you wouldn't be able to blink if the jays bought out his option.

[saskjayfan]

Now we've gone from chasing 7M after 1M, to chasing 7M after the possibility of spending another 7.5M, after the 7M? Stop the madness!

 

And, you don't make dumb decisions for fear you'll make a dumber decision if you don't. Regardless, as I've stated over and over again, the adverse impacts of Lind go beyond monies due, and onto the ability to properly construct the rest of the roster. Bringing back Lind means you have to invest in a batting-buddy, whose abilities will be "wasted" DHing his good handedness (and not able to contribute elsewhere), plus being ready to fill in when alone is out yet again. So a guy with a low value ceiling who causes roster construction problems on a team the has proven it needs that depth around.

 

You don't do it.

 

You don't have to invest big dollars in a guy who can hit lefties, but not righties. Lefties throw 28% of pitches in the MLB. These players don't get paid big dollars. Mayberry would do, Valencia would do....Adam Lind is an ELITE hitter against righties. Who are you going to sign to DH and for what dollars.

[KingKat]

So a guy with a low value ceiling who causes roster construction problems on a team the has proven it needs that depth around.

 

 

I understand that concern. It's a legit concern. You're still wrong though.