Aaron Sanchez stud thread

[thatoneguy]

First, "are you even a Blue Jays fan" is akin to "do you even lift bro?" in the world of sorry responses. And much of the Hive that posts here are self-admittedly NOT Blue Jays fans. Second, before that 9 inning gem, he couldn't record an out in the 4th inning, before being lifted. No, "any young pitcher" doesn't have stretches like this. 3 just terrible performances, two of which were reliever innings (and one of which just crossed that threshold). Of his 15 starts, 4 saw him pulled before finishing the 4th inning, all because of "performance/pitch count" reasons. Compare Alvarez, who is just a year older, and who has failed to make it out of the 4th just twice this year (in 9 more starts) - once in his first start of the season, the other time because he took a liner off the leg. And Stroman isn't being spoken of as just "any young pitcher," regardless. "Any young pitcher" isn't heart throb "I'll post him in my avatar" level.

 

I like the kid, so that makes him a heart throb? You're a condescending piece of s***.

[Iluvbjs]

Sorry to derail the thread, but I gave all the numbers anyone needs to see just how well Alvarez is doing. His ERA is one of the reasons, yes, but not the only one. From a baseball perspective, when balls are put in play against him, batters are hitting something like .290. Not very good at all, but that speaks volumes to why is ERA is all that much more important. He has learned at a very young age to pitch to contact and to trust his stuff. Batters are hitting .290 when they make contact off of him, yet he's still only averaging two and a half runs per 9IP and that's spectacular. He pitches to his strength and it shows in the number of double plays he has put up and how low his pitches per inning and pitches per batter are. His WHIP is a tad high at 1.22 but that again back up my point. He's given up more hits than innings pitched, but he's still averaging less than 14 pitches per inning, which tells me he's a consistent strike thrower. His stats from top to bottom back up my point that he is one the top five pitchers in the National league right now and that makes him an ACE right now. Can that change next year, f*** yeah. But even dating back to his last few starts last year, he threw a no-hitter and showed flashes of sheer brilliance.

 

I don't think Stroman has that high of a ceiling. Only time will tell, but I think Sanchez has the highest ceiling of any pitcher we have in this organization. It is rare to find any pitcher who has that much dramatic sink to a 96mph plus fastball. Pair him with a good catcher, one who can coax him in and out, one who can teach him the importance of command and changing the eye level of a hitter, and he's going to be a f***ing stud. I'd bet good money that within 2-3 years of him becoming a starter, he wins 15 plus games on a yearly basis. Teach this kid a change on either his breaking ball or his fastball with any consistency and the sky is the limit for him. I think Aaron has better stuff than Alvarez even.

 

I said it when they traded him, it was one of the biggest mistakes this organization has made in a long time. Alvarez is a f***ing stud and he will be for years to come, barring injury.

[BTS]

Sorry to derail the thread, but I gave all the numbers anyone needs to see just how well Alvarez is doing. His ERA is one of the reasons, yes, but not the only one. From a baseball perspective, when balls are put in play against him, batters are hitting something like .290. Not very good at all, but that speaks volumes to why is ERA is all that much more important. He has learned at a very young age to pitch to contact and to trust his stuff. Batters are hitting .290 when they make contact off of him, yet he's still only averaging two and a half runs per 9IP and that's spectacular. He pitches to his strength and it shows in the number of double plays he has put up and how low his pitches per inning and pitches per batter are. His WHIP is a tad high at 1.22 but that again back up my point. He's given up more hits than innings pitched, but he's still averaging less than 14 pitches per inning, which tells me he's a consistent strike thrower. His stats from top to bottom back up my point that he is one the top five pitchers in the National league right now and that makes him an ACE right now. Can that change next year, f*** yeah. But even dating back to his last few starts last year, he threw a no-hitter and showed flashes of sheer brilliance.

 

I don't think Stroman has that high of a ceiling. Only time will tell, but I think Sanchez has the highest ceiling of any pitcher we have in this organization. It is rare to find any pitcher who has that much dramatic sink to a 96mph plus fastball. Pair him with a good catcher, one who can coax him in and out, one who can teach him the importance of command and changing the eye level of a hitter, and he's going to be a f***ing stud. I'd bet good money that within 2-3 years of him becoming a starter, he wins 15 plus games on a yearly basis. Teach this kid a change on either his breaking ball or his fastball with any consistency and the sky is the limit for him. I think Aaron has better stuff than Alvarez even.

 

I said it when they traded him, it was one of the biggest mistakes this organization has made in a long time. Alvarez is a f***ing stud and he will be for years to come, barring injury.

 

lol

[Jimcanuck]

Stroman has better stuff than Alvarez, and it isn't close.

 

Castro has the highest ceiling of any Jays pitching prospect.

 

BTW, where did you get the WAR numbers for Stroman and Alvarez? Obviously not fangraphs which has them both at 2.1

[Iluvbjs]

lol

 

What's so funny buddy?

[BTS]

Stroman has better stuff than Alvarez, and it isn't close.

 

Castro has the highest ceiling of any Jays pitching prospect.

 

BTW, where did you get the WAR numbers for Stroman and Alvarez? Obviously not fangraphs which has them both at 2.1

 

Baseball reference uses runs against in their WAR calculation, while fangraphs uses FIP.

[Iluvbjs]

Stroman has better stuff than Alvarez, and it isn't close.

 

Castro has the highest ceiling of any Jays pitching prospect.

 

BTW, where did you get the WAR numbers for Stroman and Alvarez? Obviously not fangraphs which has them both at 2.1

 

Same at 2.1?? Look at their numbers for christ sakes, Alvarez CLEARLY has better numbers in just about any category there is.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/nl/order/false

[Iluvbjs]

Stroman...

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/al/count/161/qualified/false/order/false

[Jimcanuck]

Same at 2.1?? Look at their numbers for christ sakes, Alvarez CLEARLY has better numbers in just about any category there is.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/league/nl/order/false

 

Hey they aren't my numbers, they are fangraph's. I agree with you Alvarez has been better this year, but I wouldn't trade Stroman for Alvarez. Stroman has dominant stuff

[Iluvbjs]

Stroman has better stuff than Alvarez, and it isn't close.

 

Castro has the highest ceiling of any Jays pitching prospect.

 

BTW, where did you get the WAR numbers for Stroman and Alvarez? Obviously not fangraphs which has them both at 2.1

 

WHAT?????? BAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

 

That's f***ing hilarious! I could see you trying to make the argument about who's stuff is better but saying it isn't even close? GTFO....that flat out stupid and downright laughable. Alvarez has so much more depth and movement to his fastball over Stroman's, it's not even funny. Alvarez CLEARLY has a superior fastball and I'm not even going to debate that with you. Stroman's breaking pitches are better and have more break, but Alvarez has developed his slider quite a bit. Try watching him pitch now before passing asinine judgments like that You can't survive in either league with just one pitch and anybody who has ever played baseball or followed it closely knows that. Henderson's slider isn't as good as Stromans, but his straight change is miles better and has improved drastically over last year.

 

You think he's thrown 3 complete game shutouts, second in the league in Dp ground balls, lowest pitch per plate Appearance and best in pitches per inning, with just one good pitch? Alvarez overall has better stufgf than Stro hands down. Your fanboyism is blinding you pretty good.

[Jimcanuck]

WHAT?????? BAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!

 

That's f***ing hilarious! I could see you trying to make the argument about who's stuff is better but saying it isn't even close? GTFO....that flat out stupid and downright laughable. Alvarez has so much more depth and movement to his fastball over Stroman's, it's not even funny. Alvarez CLEARLY has a superior fastball and I'm not even going to debate that with you. Stroman's breaking pitches are better and have more break, but Alvarez has developed his slider quite a bit. Try watching him pitch now before passing asinine judgments like that You can't survive in either league with just one pitch and anybody who has ever played baseball or followed it closely knows that. Henderson's slider isn't as good as Stromans, but his straight change is miles better and has improved drastically over last year.

 

You think he's thrown 3 complete game shutouts, second in the league in Dp ground balls, lowest pitch per plate Appearance and best in pitches per inning, with just one good pitch? Alvarez overall has better stufgf than Stro hands down. Your fanboyism is blinding you pretty good.

 

Your passion for Alvarez is a bit weird, but whatever, man.

[GD]

For the record, batting average on balls in play =/= a skill (until lots of innings)

[Deadpool]

For the record, batting average on balls in play =/= a skill (until lots of innings)

 

Also, .290 (actually .303 according to FG) is pretty average, not "Not very good at all".

[Iluvbjs]

Hey they aren't my numbers, they are fangraph's. I agree with you Alvarez has been better this year, but I wouldn't trade Stroman for Alvarez. Stroman has dominant stuff

 

We will see how fast Stroman learns won't we? Because with just one full year under his belt, Alvarez has 5 complete game shutouts, a no hitter and an ERA of 2.2 over his past 200 innings of work. You want to tell me that's not dominant? I like Stroman and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and see how fast his learning curve is. But their projections over a full season are nowhere near even resembling close.

 

And I'll argue til the sun comes up that Aaron has the best stuff of all three. Aaron and Alvarez's fastballs are both similar, heavy sink, with Aaron slightly better velocity. But Alvarez has now developed two secondary pitches that he throws consistenly for strikes. If he didn't, he wouldn't be leading the league in pitches per inning and pitches per plate appearance. Those numbers tell me that hitters can no longer sit and wait for his fastball. He IS the most efficient pitcher pitch count wise in a NL that boasts pitchers like Kershaw, Wainwright, Hamels, Cueto, Ross and Grienke. When you look at his numbers across the booared, the only pitcher with consistenly better numbers is Kershaw. So people comparing Stromans numbers to Hendersons is a complete joke. You might as well be comparing Stroman to all those same pitchers I mentioned above. Fact is, he's not even in the same f***ing hemisphere.

 

I like Stroman too, I really do, but he's nowhere near as far in his development as Henderson is. I hate to be a prick and I'm not hating on the guy, but people need to take their fan goggles off and look at the f***ing numbers staring them in the face. I was in f***ing shock when they traded Henderson and I told a whole shitload of friends and people at work who follow the jays that Alvarez is a f***ing beast and trading him was a colossal mistake. He's still a kid with basically two years of service and has a no hitter and 5 complete game shuouts over his past 200IP. I'm sorry, but I don't see Marcus putting up those kinda numbers anytime soon. Yes, the Al east and the AL in general has a lot to do with that, but put him in a NL park like where Miami play and IMO he still won't put up those kind of numbers for some wime to come.

 

Anyways, back to Sanchez because arguing about Alvartez not being an ace and not having the same kinda stuff as Stroman is utterly f***ing asinine. Anybody who has been around the game of baseball on the field will tell you flat out that Alvarez is miles and miles better right now and his numbers say EXACTLY that. The f***ing fanboys here who lol at numbers there is no arguing with are either just flat out stupid or in denial. Take your pick. I'm outta here. We'll see where Alvarez is in a few years and where Stroman and Sanchez are and we'll have this discussion then. Alvarez is arguably a top 3 NL pitcher, if not top five for sure. Trying to tell me Stroman is anywhere even close to that isn't worth wasting my time on.

 

Good luck Sanchez. He's going to be a beast and the ace of this staff for years to come.

[GD]

Also, .290 (actually .303 according to FG) is pretty average, not "Not very good at all".

 

Eh, it's like half a standard deviation from the mean, so not insignificant (I don't think?), but yeah.

[BTS]

We will see how fast Stroman learns won't we? Because with just one full year under his belt, Alvarez has 5 complete game shutouts, a no hitter and an ERA of 2.2 over his past 200 innings of work. You want to tell me that's not dominant? I like Stroman and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and see how fast his learning curve is. But their projections over a full season are nowhere near even resembling close.

 

And I'll argue til the sun comes up that Aaron has the best stuff of all three. Aaron and Alvarez's fastballs are both similar, heavy sink, with Aaron slightly better velocity. But Alvarez has now developed two secondary pitches that he throws consistenly for strikes. If he didn't, he wouldn't be leading the league in pitches per inning and pitches per plate appearance. Those numbers tell me that hitters can no longer sit and wait for his fastball. He IS the most efficient pitcher pitch count wise in a NL that boasts pitchers like Kershaw, Wainwright, Hamels, Cueto, Ross and Grienke. When you look at his numbers across the booared, the only pitcher with consistenly better numbers is Kershaw. So people comparing Stromans numbers to Hendersons is a complete joke. You might as well be comparing Stroman to all those same pitchers I mentioned above. Fact is, he's not even in the same f***ing hemisphere.

 

I like Stroman too, I really do, but he's nowhere near as far in his development as Henderson is. I hate to be a prick and I'm not hating on the guy, but people need to take their fan goggles off and look at the f***ing numbers staring them in the face. I was in f***ing shock when they traded Henderson and I told a whole shitload of friends and people at work who follow the jays that Alvarez is a f***ing beast and trading him was a colossal mistake. He's still a kid with basically two years of service and has a no hitter and 5 complete game shuouts over his past 200IP. I'm sorry, but I don't see Marcus putting up those kinda numbers anytime soon. Yes, the Al east and the AL in general has a lot to do with that, but put him in a NL park like where Miami play and IMO he still won't put up those kind of numbers for some wime to come.

 

Anyways, back to Sanchez because arguing about Alvartez not being an ace and not having the same kinda stuff as Stroman is utterly f***ing asinine. Anybody who has been around the game of baseball on the field will tell you flat out that Alvarez is miles and miles better right now and his numbers say EXACTLY that. The f***ing fanboys here who lol at numbers there is no arguing with are either just flat out stupid or in denial. Take your pick. I'm outta here. We'll see where Alvarez is in a few years and where Stroman and Sanchez are and we'll have this discussion then. Alvarez is arguably a top 3 NL pitcher, if not top five for sure. Trying to tell me Stroman is anywhere even close to that isn't worth wasting my time on.

 

Good luck Sanchez. He's going to be a beast and the ace of this staff for years to come.

 

http://i.imgur.com/FQzJsoq.gif

[GD]

It's like a bizarro-TL.

[Chappy]

I can't wait to bump this thread at the end of next season when Alvarez's ERA 'mysteriously' spikes. It will be like no one saw it coming.

[Iluvbjs]

For the record, batting average on balls in play =/= a skill (until lots of innings)

 

And 150 IP isn't a lot of innings? He's shown that over 200IP, if you look at his last 6 or 7 starts from last year, that he has that skill and that he has developed that composure. Just watch as he continues to do so. Like 12 of 13 starts of 2ER or less isn't a large enough sample size?

 

I have a passion for Alvarez because I knew what this team had and what it let go. At the time, I would NOT have trade Alvarez straight up for Reyes, even with him being a position player and an important one at that. Never mind his role as a leadoff hitter. I played this game for 15 years and I've followed it closely for 30. I know that pitching and defense win games and win pennants and championships. Reyes has always been known as an injury prone player who takes unnecessary risks, putting himself in harms way for no reason. Mets fans screamed at the top of their lungs in frustration at him for that very reason.

 

And it has nothing to do with arrogance neither. I get called out and laughed at in numerous posts and when I defend my point, I'm the one being arrogant? REALLY? That's pretty f***ing ironic if you ask me and makes me chuckle a little. I get told I'm being insulting and backtracking, then when I say wait a second and back up my point, I'm being arrogant? An oxymoron if I've ever seen one. Which seems pretty common around here from some of the fanboys who seem to think they're gods gift to baseball. When to me it's obviuos from how they talk that they've never played the game.

 

I have passion for this team and it bothers me when they trade away young talent for the injury prone s*** they got in return. Alvarez is a beast, get the f*** over it. All the same people laughing are the same ones "fapping" over Colby f***ing Rasmus, thast's what f***ing "irritating." Yet they want to continue to trash on other people for stating the obvious.

 

Hopefully we get to enjoy Sanchez for awhile before they trade him for some other useless douchebag who helps this team drown in mediocrity. People around here are so used to it all they can do is bag on other people, then call them arrogant when they make their point. Utterly f***ing hilarious.

 

I'm out of this thread, the numbers speak for themselves. Now back to bagging on Sanchez boys and girls. All the same people who thought Rasmus and Reyes were huge f***ing steals!!! Back to bagging on Sanchez. When he proves you wrong, find someone else to bag on, it suits you people oh so very well.

[GD]

And 150 IP isn't a lot of innings? He's shown that over 200IP' date=' if you look at his last 6 or 7 starts from last year, that he has that skill and that he has developed that composure. Just watch as he continues to do so. Like 12 of 13 starts of 2ER or less isn't a large enough sample size?[/quote']

 

I'm not gonna touch any of the other stuff, but this link will help:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/sample-size/

 

It's like 820 balls in play until it's reliable. So he's around half the way there this season. Also, his BABIP is actually .303, not .290. Which is almost exactly league average so dunno why you brought it up.

 

He's sitting at 94 xFIP-, 15th in the NL. Clayton Kershaw is #1 with 53. Strasburg is #2 at 69. He's not really close to an upper tier pitcher, he's just a nice young mid-rote guy.

[BTS]

I'm pretty sure Rasmus was a huge f***ing steal. Or at least an investment that returned considerable surplus value. Someone that isn't me should back of napkin those numbers.

[GD]

I'm pretty sure Rasmus was a huge f***ing steal. Or at least an investment that returned considerable surplus value. Someone that isn't me should back of napkin those numbers.

 

Why don't we ask the Cards board?

[GeorgiaPeach]

We will see how fast Stroman learns won't we? Because with just one full year under his belt, Alvarez has 5 complete game shutouts, a no hitter and an ERA of 2.2 over his past 200 innings of work. You want to tell me that's not dominant? I like Stroman and I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and see how fast his learning curve is. But their projections over a full season are nowhere near even resembling close.

 

And I'll argue til the sun comes up that Aaron has the best stuff of all three. Aaron and Alvarez's fastballs are both similar, heavy sink, with Aaron slightly better velocity. But Alvarez has now developed two secondary pitches that he throws consistenly for strikes. If he didn't, he wouldn't be leading the league in pitches per inning and pitches per plate appearance. Those numbers tell me that hitters can no longer sit and wait for his fastball. He IS the most efficient pitcher pitch count wise in a NL that boasts pitchers like Kershaw, Wainwright, Hamels, Cueto, Ross and Grienke. When you look at his numbers across the booared, the only pitcher with consistenly better numbers is Kershaw. So people comparing Stromans numbers to Hendersons is a complete joke. You might as well be comparing Stroman to all those same pitchers I mentioned above. Fact is, he's not even in the same f***ing hemisphere.

 

I like Stroman too, I really do, but he's nowhere near as far in his development as Henderson is. I hate to be a prick and I'm not hating on the guy, but people need to take their fan goggles off and look at the f***ing numbers staring them in the face. I was in f***ing shock when they traded Henderson and I told a whole shitload of friends and people at work who follow the jays that Alvarez is a f***ing beast and trading him was a colossal mistake. He's still a kid with basically two years of service and has a no hitter and 5 complete game shuouts over his past 200IP. I'm sorry, but I don't see Marcus putting up those kinda numbers anytime soon. Yes, the Al east and the AL in general has a lot to do with that, but put him in a NL park like where Miami play and IMO he still won't put up those kind of numbers for some wime to come.

 

Anyways, back to Sanchez because arguing about Alvartez not being an ace and not having the same kinda stuff as Stroman is utterly f***ing asinine. Anybody who has been around the game of baseball on the field will tell you flat out that Alvarez is miles and miles better right now and his numbers say EXACTLY that. The f***ing fanboys here who lol at numbers there is no arguing with are either just flat out stupid or in denial. Take your pick. I'm outta here. We'll see where Alvarez is in a few years and where Stroman and Sanchez are and we'll have this discussion then. Alvarez is arguably a top 3 NL pitcher, if not top five for sure. Trying to tell me Stroman is anywhere even close to that isn't worth wasting my time on.

 

Good luck Sanchez. He's going to be a beast and the ace of this staff for years to come.

 

Alvarez must've either rapidly developed with the Marlins or he must've been holding back with the Jays, because he didn't do anything special here. And the scouting reports weren't glowing either.

[GeorgiaPeach]

His stats from top to bottom back up my point that he is one the top five pitchers in the National league right now and that makes him an ACE right now. Can that change next year' date=' f*** yeah. But even dating back to his last few starts last year, he threw a no-hitter and showed flashes of sheer brilliance.[/quote']

 

Phil Humber threw a perfect game. And the tag "ace" doesn't change from year to year. Either you are or aren't.

[G-Snarls]

Alvarez must've either rapidly developed with the Marlins or he must've been holding back with the Jays, because he didn't do anything special here. And the scouting reports weren't glowing either.

 

Exactly. You'd get laughed at on here for suggesting he was a possible legit #2/3 caliber starter.

[Chappy]

I don't understand the passion to compare the two. Is it because everyone likes Stroman and no one really liked Alvarez? Or don't now? It should be pretty clear that Alvarez doesn't produce the same numbers if he stays with the Jays . The same kind of guys are probably blowing up the Yankees board flipping out about Nuno.

 

I merely brought Stroman up as an example when some were claiming Alvarez blows everyone on our staff away. Anyone with half a brain knows otherwise. Alvarez is a nice young starter but let's not put luck induced results ahead of sheer talent and the unlikeliness of repeating this fairy tale season.

[John_Havok]

I don't understand the passion to compare the two. Is it because everyone likes Stroman and no one really liked Alvarez? Or don't now? It should be pretty clear that Alvarez doesn't produce the same numbers if he stays with the Jays . The same kind of guys are probably blowing up the Yankees board flipping out about Nuno.

 

I dunno, some people just don't get that certain stats are stupid like ERA, dont understand park factors, use bad sample-size based arguments because they don't know what a real sample size is for the numbers they are quoting, and you end up with this train wreck where someone is so confident that what they are saying is true, when in reality he's further out in left field than that monstrosity in the Marlins home park.

 

It's entertaining really.

[GNick49]

Alvarez must've either rapidly developed with the Marlins or he must've been holding back with the Jays, because he didn't do anything special here. And the scouting reports weren't glowing either.

 

Where he switched leagues and got out of homerun hitters park in Rogers...most pitchers have better statistics in NL than AL.

[saskjayfan]

You are correct. Those with half a brain know that Alvarez doesn't blow everyone on the Jays' staff away.

 

Those with a full brain know he does.

 

Alvarez is a very good pitcher...definitely take him over almost all of the Jays staff....except that Sanchez kid. He looks like he might be a stud!

[GD]

Exactly. For those reasons, his xFIP dropped from 4.42 in his final year as a Jay, to 3.49 this year. And his SIERA dropped from a 4.59 to a 3.61. Even though those measures control for those reasons, those reasons are the reasons for the good season. Or something. My brain hurts now.

 

Not necessarily disagreeing with you, but moving to the NL lowers his raw xFIP quite a bit too. We can look at xFIP-, which is his xFIP relative to league average (set to 100). It's also park adjusted. So rather than Hendo having a massive improvement of 4.42 to 3.49, he went from 107 (to 105) to 94, which is still very good but not ridiculous or anything, he went from a bit worse than average to a bit better than average. Using xFIP- helps factor in contextual stuff like having to face pitchers for example. Again, not disagreeing with you.