Jays having discussions on Chase Headley

[NLJays]

If Headley's BABIP was where it should be he'd be close to a league-average hitter. And his defense is good enough that he can survive on a 90 wRC+ anyway. He's a clear upgrade.

 

Nobody said he was perfect.

 

I'm a "stats guy", but expecting an injured position player to have a normal BABIP is completely wrong, imo.

[pickoff22]

What's the herniated disc league average performance?

 

Even though I don't agree with you, I did laugh at this.

[CJ-Freeway]

You have to remember where he's playing though. In 2013 he was very valuable player despite stats that look mediocre on the surface. His career line is fairly impressive.

 

He's a plus defender with a league-average bat playing a position of need. All it will likely take is a financial commitment and a token prospect. I don't understand how anyone can be against this.

 

We're against this because we need to boost the lineup. I'm sorry, but if you take a look at his 2014 stats right now, you can't possibly tell me that he will significantly boost our lineup. Maybe a bit against lefties but that's about it. I doubt he will perform better in a Jays uniform. And he is injured right now. I don't think he is worth it.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't think so. They're both probably C prospects. Davis is already pretty much a bust. The black Kevin Ahrens.

 

Davis is the kind of toolsy player that you don't give up on at 21yo. Even if he never figures it out completely he has a shot at a decent MLB career. If they need an OF'er give them someone like Pillar, at the very least you know what you're giving up.

 

Mitch Nay is a couple notches up the prospect ladder from Davis. Decent shot at being an average MLB 3B and has the tools to be much more than that. No need to give up on him at this point.

 

FWIW IMO the Jays shouldn't move anyone in A ball for Headley. Keep your high ceiling guys and move the pieces in the upper minors that are redundant and locking some of your younger guys.

[NorthOf49]

We're against this because we need to boost the lineup. I'm sorry, but if you take a look at his 2014 stats right now, you can't possibly tell me that he will significantly boost our lineup. Maybe a bit against lefties but that's about it. I doubt he will perform better in a Jays uniform. And he is injured right now. I don't think he is worth it.

I'm not sure what you want. A significant boost would cost a significant amount in prospects and there aren't any such players available anyway (the Rangers aren't shopping Adrian Beltre).

 

Headley is a tangible boost and won't cost much/anything. Why not go for him.

 

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His batted ball profile is in line with previous seasons. He definitely has room to grow in BABIP.

[DuckDuckGose]

Well, our first definite user of Velcro. Wow.

 

 

http://www.nizkor.org/features/fallacies/ad-hominem.html

 

Depute the facts. No one gives a rats ass about who tied whose shoes.

 

 

A herniated disc is not a career threatening injury.

 

Your medical prognosis is irrelevant as you have no medical records or education/experience in the field.

 

Chase Headley as it stands now is currently an upgrade for the Jays. (The Jays should gather the necessary info and consult their medical staff)

 

Headley as a rental is less risky than the same player on a long term deal.

[CJ-Freeway]

I'm not sure what you want. A significant boost would cost a significant amount in prospects and there aren't any such players available anyway (the Rangers aren't shopping Adrian Beltre).

 

Headley is a tangible boost and won't cost much/anything. Why not go for him.

 

-------

His batted ball profile is in line with previous seasons. He definitely has room to grow in BABIP.

 

Well if he doesn't cost too much in prospects then sure, why not. At this point anything will be better than the scrubs we have.

 

But... what I'm saying is that he won't really boost our anemic offense (without Lawrie and EE) right now. He won't help much to keep us in the division race.

[shortstop]

Well if he doesn't cost too much in prospects then sure, why not. At this point anything will be better than the scrubs we have.

 

But... what I'm saying is that he won't really boost our anemic offense (without Lawrie and EE) right now. He won't help much to keep us in the division race.

 

 

the cost to acquire such a 'guaranteed' bat (ie. Beltre?) would be way too costly in terms of $$'s, term and/or prospects no?

[DuckDuckGose]

the cost to acquire such a 'guaranteed' bat (ie. Beltre?) would be way too costly in terms of $$'s, term and/or prospects no?

 

I depends if the other team is willing to eat salary or not. If you're giving up the prospects for Beltre you are better off upgrading up the middle and keeping Lawrie at 3rd. Zobrist, Utley, and Tulo are all reportedly available. I'd rather land one of them but Beltre would be amazing.

 

In particular I wonder if the Phillies would be willing to eat the 2014 salaries for Utley + Lee/Hamels and what kind of package they'd be asking for in return. I'd imagine they'd want quite a bit; maybe Sanchez/Stroman + Norris/Hutch + Pompey and some A ball guys like Nay and Tirado would be enough. I think probably depends whether the Phillies are look for a huge quality package or fewer players centred around a truly elite prospect.

[TwistedLogic]

Thanks!

Dont really know why we would want Rivera, seems like Kratz would be the equivalent. Dickey f***ing us over not only by pitching but by having Thole on the roster too.

 

He's a top-3 pitch framer in baseball.

 

from a couple days ago.

 

http://friarsonbase.com/2014/07/05/chase-headley-starting-find-groove/

 

In 3 games, his average has gone from .201 to .216. Just watching him swing in Friday’s game showed that he is confident and is finding a groove.

 

I know, epically small sample size but a guy in a groove for 2 weeks could mean the difference of winning a ball game or two...

 

I wouldn't buy too much into that. Melky's back was atrocious last year, and he "got into grooves" every now and again as well. I have no idea how these guys do what they do; Headley has a f***ing herniated disc in his back. But I respect them a ton for it. Hopefully the Jays are able to get something sensible done in regards to Headley, and hopefully he sees a bit of success here, and hopefully the Jays have a higher-than-zero shot of bringing him back next year. We've got nothing in the minors on the infield front for 2015, and I would say that it's a very safe bet that Headley will be back to form after he gets rehab for that back.

[TwistedLogic]

For anyone wasting time arguing with Moogtard (thanks for making my ignore on him redundant by quoting everything he writes), keep in mind that this is the same guy who said that it was a stretch that Happ, Stroman, Hutchison and all of the other 5th SP options would combine for 1 WAR over the course of the season.

[Candy Maldonado]

wow somebody loves to debate.

[TwistedLogic]

It's like arguing with a special needs child. Are you going to get anywhere? If you explained to them once that you shouldn't put the toaster in the tub, when it's plugged in, because you will get electrocuted ... and then they look at you and do it again, is it worthwhile to continue trying to "teach" them?

 

What the f*** kind of trailer trash house do you live in? "Toaster in the tub"? You make your toast next to your tub? And your special needs kid has, on more than one occasion, dropped that plugged-in toaster into the tub, that we are to gather was filled with water at the time? I don't think anyone here will relate to that analogy in any way.

[Nox]

Headley's back stuff is of concern. Without his HitFx data available, none of really know whether or not his currently *low* BABIP is good indication of his true talent or not. He might be hitting as many line drives as normal but if his back is f***ed, he might not be able to hit them as hard. That obviously has an effect on his underlying BABIP skill.

 

There's also opportunity cost associated with going after a risky asset like Headley. Sure he comes cheap but if he truly is a hurt sack of poop that falls apart on turf in mid August, you're not going to be able to react in time to get a Zobrist or equivalent (for a piece or two more obviously).

 

But, to argue with myself, if we are to believe Headley's back is f***ed, why hasn't it shown up in his defensive profile yet? I suppose it could be the specific location in his back that only really hurts during the torque of a swing and not in bending down, to field a ball. Tough to say without seeing his medicals/having a professional interpret them.

 

(And because someone will surely say it/think it - yes this is a small sample size for any fielding data but keep in mind that any ball in play offensive metrics need as much time to stabilize as UZR does.)

Edited July 7, 2014 by Nox

[CJ-Freeway]

the cost to acquire such a 'guaranteed' bat (ie. Beltre?) would be way too costly in terms of $$'s, term and/or prospects no?

 

Yes, and that will show us if management and AA are serious about going to the playoffs this year or if they want us to finish with a .500 club at best. (Like the past 20 years)

[CHRIS]

The opportunity cost of acquiring Headley, as Nox states, is probably the biggest concern for me.

 

Is Headley a big enough upgrade to give up assets and a roster spot, and possibly prevent better moves later on? I'm not sure.

 

This team needs to decide if they're in it or not. I can see arguments for either side, but if they think they should go for it, then I think they should aim higher than Headley.

[DuckDuckGose]

Depute? I'll depute them real good. The thing is, you don't understand just how horrible your argument is. I explained it quite clearly once already, and you came back with embarrassingly wrong-minded nonsense. It's like arguing with a special needs child. Are you going to get anywhere? If you explained to them once that you shouldn't put the toaster in the tub, when it's plugged in, because you will get electrocuted ... and then they look at you and do it again, is it worthwhile to continue trying to "teach" them?

 

Caught a typo and went right back to ad hominem. Great rebuttal

 

 

Well, actually, it can be. But no one is discussing that right now. We're not talking about his "career." We're talking about the next 2 and a half months of baseball.

 

Lots of herniated discs have been rested within the time frame of a season. Worst case is surgery which typically take 10-20 weeks to recover from. If he needs surgery then the Jays wont acquire him. If you think he can rest and recover he could be back within a month or so. I have no idea how long it take Headley to recover as I don't have access to his medical records. If the Padres are shopping him there is a good chance he is expected to play at some point in the near future.

 

"You're not a doctor" is just a stupid, stupid rebuttal. It's embarrassing. When Joe Theismann was tackled by LT, with his bone sticking out, you didn't have to "be a doctor" to know that his leg was broken. You didn't even need any education/experience in the field. Or need medical records.

 

I'm sure Joe Thesmann would disagree with you. I bet you he was very thankful to have a knowledgeable doctor to diagnose his injuries, prescribe treatment and monitor rehabilitation. This is a prime example of your arrogance skewing your opinions

 

And not that it's even relevant, but I do have a very extensive knowledge of basic sports medicine, and biomechanics, especially as they relate to baseball.

 

Basic knowledge of sports medicine and biomechanics wont help you diagnose and prognose from your couch.

 

And personal experience playing baseball at a high level with serious back issues.

 

I've had back issues too that doesn't make me a doctor.

 

And, I do have a mind that is objectively superior to well over 99% of the populace, as well as extensive education and professional experience in regards to risk management, valuation, logic and argumentation.

 

Great so you could have gone to med school. Seems like it would be more up your alley.

 

And I have access to friends who ARE doctors and who DO treat herniated discs in athletes. But, again, that's just me puffing my chest. It's completely irrelevant. If none of that were the case, I'd still be in a very logically sound position.

 

I have friends who are magicians and do magic. What does that have to do with me?

 

He currently has a herniated disc. That's reported. I don't need his medical records to verify this, unless it's all part of some great conspiracy to defraud the public regarding the status of his back, for some unknown reason. You investigate and let me know if you uncover any evidence of this.

 

How about you find where I said he didn't have a herniated disc. It's a pretty vague diagnosis and could vary widely in severity.

 

I also know that only rest and time serves to heal a herniated disk, without surgery.

 

Great, so we can agree that with rest and time Headley can heal. It is a matter of how long before he can play again which neither of us know.

 

It typically takes months. He's been playing with it for weeks.

 

It typically takes months with surgery. If he doesn't need surgery he could be back mid-August right in time for the pennant race.

 

Sometimes, they need surgery to be healed entirely, or at all. It's a wait and see situation.

 

So you just admitted that you don't actually know how long it will take to heal and that further information is needed to make that call. Seems like it would be prudent to gather that info and have a team of medical professionals review it.

 

He received an epidural to alleviate pain, but that's all it does - takes away pain. Sometimes all, sometimes none, sometimes some ... for an indefinite time period. But it doesn't help heal the disk. So, he's playing with a herniated disk. And herniated disks effect body motion and, therefore, performance. With or without pain.

 

And he's playing at a decent level, an upgrade over several of the players the Jays have started all year. If he can play at this level he'd help the Jays win mre games this season.

 

Being entirely certain of all of the above does not require me to have a medical degree. Just basic knowledge, and the ability to read.

 

I still don't entirely know what you are certain of. Perhaps the second half will help?

 

 

No. Your risk assessment is off. It's not that simple. And stated as you have above, it's just wrong. You have the wrong window, and the wrong factors

.

 

Speculation. Gather information and then decide the risk. There is no way to know your numbers are even remotely close without his medical reports.

 

For a 2.5 month rental, the only thing you're worried about is whether or not he'll perform over that period of time. That's the only time you can get value from him. So all of the potential risk lies within.

 

Duh, no one wants AA to trade for Headley if he isn't going to play. They want AA to do his due diligence and go for a decent value buy if he'll be healthy enough to help the team.

 

If you don't get adequate value from him in that period of time, he was a complete failure.

 

He hasn't been traded and we have no idea how he is being valued by the Jays. If the Padres's basically give him away it wouldn't be a significant risk at all and have no impact on the current season or long term future of the team.

 

So all your risk is compressed into that time period. So every current risk is heightened in importance. Here, you are taking on a verified compromised individual, who has been performing poorly, and who carries a huge risk of continuing that poor performance.

 

You would send a package that reflects the risk. If he's having back surgery and going to be out until mid-September the Jays wont trade for him and even if they do it wil be for very very little value. A small risk.

 

He also carries the very real, immediate risk that the situation will "escalate" by causing more pain, or more problems, in that window. For the time frame, given his compromised status, and given that all value must be accumulated in that time frame, the risk is off the charts. There is no mitigation. There is only escalation.

 

He can heal with rest and time, it's a matter of how much time and rest is necessary. This is speculation and conjecture without knowledge of his medical reports. I doubt the Jays would be interested in a rental who wont play. They'll get the info and make decisions based on it.

 

Now, if you were looking longer-term, and trying to compare that to determine "mitigation," the risk assessment would depend on just what the hell you were trying to measure. The percentage likelihood over that period of time that he'll miss substantial time? Depending on the injury, or his history, that may or may not be a higher number than the current planned acquisition. Or if you're looking at potential recapture of value re monies spent, that would be another determination to be made. And you would look at likelihood of re-injury, or other injuries (since he is injury-prone)

 

So there would be significantly more risk in a long term deal. More money and a longer period compounds the risk. Again, none of this really matters without knowing what goes the other way. If he's going for surgery the cost to the Jays would be cash considerations or a very insignificant prospect. There would be little to no risk in such a move.

 

But the salient point here is, outside of acquiring someone that was virtually certain to provide no value in the 2.5 month window (i.e. a 60-day DL kind of guy) the risk couldn't be higher, given that you have a currently injured player with currently compromised performance.

 

You do not have enough information to be certain of this. Even if that were to be the case no one would want AA to go after him unless the cost was next to nothing.

 

And the issue isn't if he may or may not provide a boost over current options. The issue is, you basically have one shot to improve your club here.

 

Where did you find the rule where you can only make on trade a year. I think we would all like to see AA make a much larger splash if he is going the trade route. Headley alone does not get this team to the playoffs even if 100% healthy.

 

It's not as if you acquire Headley, he fails, and you're going to go out and get a replacement. You have to get it right the first time. You need someone who can give you the most increased value (with the most certainty - i.e. highest expected value given a threshold probability of success) with a reasonable, acceptable expenditure of resources.

 

This team is multiple pieces away from contention. Headley would be a smaller move to help win more games in the short term.

 

Headley may not cost much, but he gives you virtually nothing, as well. He could easily prove to be a Tolleson-level schmoe over that 2.5 months, because of the acute concerns. Longer-term, you might not expect that, but given the circumstances, it's a distinct possibility.

 

I'd rather go with Headley and risk that he performs like Tolleson than go with Tolleson and risk that he performs like Tolleson.

 

Headley shouldn't even be on the radar, unless they expect to retain him at a reasonable cost, and they've done their due diligence and proper risk assessment to verify that cost/value analysis. But they need to look short-term for this fix. He doesn't fit.

 

You don't have a clue about what it would cost to land him, or his short term and long term health prognosis. He could be a great buy low option. AA needs to do his due diligence and see if he can improve this team. As I said above they are multiple pieces from contention, Headley alone wont get them to the playoffs but if healthy he can add a win or two to help get them there.

[TwistedLogic]

If the opportunity cost for bringing in Headley is a concern, then a billion dollar organization like the Blue Jays should have the wherewithal to mitigate that concern by amassing a bit of depth behind him. Sure, there's a plausible risk that all of Headley and Lawrie and Reyes can go down in the same week and be out for a long period of time, but a good ball club will be prepared for that and will have a guy in their own system that can provide above-replacement level value in a pinch. The A's are constantly grabbing guys off of the waiver wire and strengthening their depth, the Jays can do the same.

 

When the Marlins had Stanton go down in 2012, Ruggiano stepped in and provided 2.6 fWAR in 90 games. That's an extreme example, but a less of an extreme example is right in front of us; the Athletics have Gentry playing exceptionally well in replacement for Reddick.

 

Reimold is a very good example of the kind of moves they need to continue to make. Gillespie is a very good example of something they need to never ever do.

 

Gose and Reimold in the OF, Kratz at C, Johnson at 1B, and Redmond in the bullpen (is he even still a Blue Jay?) are good to very good depth options at their respective positions. They just need a few more guys like that as options that can play the infield.

[DuckDuckGose]

The opportunity cost of acquiring Headley, as Nox states, is probably the biggest concern for me.

 

Is Headley a big enough upgrade to give up assets and a roster spot, and possibly prevent better moves later on? I'm not sure.

 

This team needs to decide if they're in it or not. I can see arguments for either side, but if they think they should go for it, then I think they should aim higher than Headley.

 

Is this a joke? They're giving 40 man roster spots to Drabek, Korecky, McGuire, Rasmussen, Wagner, Francisco, Goins, Izturis, Thole, Kawasaki, Tolleson, Gillespie, Mastro and Pillar. I'd take Headley performing to his current level over all of those guys fairly easily. Like would any one really care if they never saw Scott Tolleson play again?

[DuckDuckGose]

Headley's back stuff is of concern. Without his HitFx data available, none of really know whether or not his currently *low* BABIP is good indication of his true talent or not. He might be hitting as many line drives as normal but if his back is f***ed, he might not be able to hit them as hard. That obviously has an effect on his underlying BABIP skill.

 

There's also opportunity cost associated with going after a risky asset like Headley. Sure he comes cheap but if he truly is a hurt sack of poop that falls apart on turf in mid August, you're not going to react in time to get a Zobrist or equivalent (for a piece or two more obviously).

 

The Jays are multiple pieces away. Even if they were to land Zobrist (which I would love) they would still need to make a couple smaller moves to contend this season.

 

But, to argue with myself, if we are to believe Headley's back is f***ed, why hasn't it shown up in his defensive profile yet? I suppose it could be the specific location in his back that only really hurts during the torque of a swing and not in bending down, to field a ball. Tough to say without seeing his medicals/having a professional interpret them.

 

(And because someone will surely say it/think it - yes this is a small sample size for any fielding data but keep in mind that any ball in play offensive metrics need as much time to stabilize as UZR does.)

 

Get the medicals and find out!

[Nox]

Is this a joke? They're giving 40 man roster spots to Drabek, Korecky, McGuire, Rasmussen, Wagner, Francisco, Goins, Izturis, Thole, Kawasaki, Tolleson, Gillespie, Mastro and Pillar. I'd take Headley performing to his current level over all of those guys fairly easily. Like would any one really care if they never saw Scott Tolleson play again?

 

What if Headley's true talent level with the back injury is that of a 70 wRC+ hitter with league avg D? Then no, I don't think an investment of any assets is a good idea.

 

I quote projections as much as anybody. When players are healthy they do a better job than any of us do. Professional scouting staffs included.

 

But with something like a back injury they do become far less valuable and may actually just add noise to the evaluation process.

[DuckDuckGose]

 

Gose and Reimold in the OF, Kratz at C, Johnson at 1B, and Redmond in the bullpen (is he even still a Blue Jay?) are good to very good depth options at their respective positions. They just need a few more guys like that as options that can play the infield.

 

I'd actually argue the opposite of that. They have too many depth IF'er right now and must try to push the depth guys down a rung and off the 40-man. Go find a starting 2B/3B somewhere other than Buffalo.

[Nox]

The Jays are multiple pieces away. Even if they were to land Zobrist (which I would love) they would still need to make a couple smaller moves to contend this season.

 

Yea, there's a good chance you're right. And after acquiring Zobrist the cupboard may be completely bare. To the point they wouldn't even be able to manage a marginal upgrade at the SP #5 spot.

 

Get the medicals and find out!

 

They definitely would. My spiel was more directed towards us discussing his back here. It's hard to use anything other than the broadest of strokes. "His back injury is bad and it would make me quite nervous" is about as specific as I'd get.

[DuckDuckGose]

What if Headley's true talent level with the back injury is that of a 70 wRC+ hitter with league avg D? Then no, I don't think an investment of any assets is a good idea.

 

I quote projections as much as anybody. When players are healthy they do a better job than any of us do. Professional scouting staffs included.

 

But with something like a back injury they do become far less valuable and may actually just add noise to the evaluation process.

 

If Headley puts up those numbers the Jays are in the exact same place they are now. I'd obviously like to know more about his health though. If he's going for surgery or wont be back until September I'd probably pass. If he's going to play I'd take the gamble.

[DuckDuckGose]

Yea, there's a good chance you're right. And after acquiring Zobrist the cupboard may be completely bare. To the point they wouldn't even be able to manage a marginal upgrade at the SP #5 spot.

 

If it wasn't the Rays I'd like to see what AA can get done but I have feeling if he deals with Friedman he gets raped and pillaged. Is Ruben Amaro still allowed to make trades?

 

They definitely would. My spiel was more directed towards us discussing his back here. It's hard to use anything other than the broadest of strokes. "His back injury is bad and it would make me quite nervous" is about as specific as I'd get.

 

Ya, it could be bad, it could be manageable. Playing through it is a good sign though.

[Nox]

If Headley puts up those numbers the Jays are in the exact same place they are now.

 

Which wouldn't seem so bad. The floor is a replacement level player (either Headley playing at that level or his internal replacement in the event he's injured). But, as I said before, the real problem is that if we don't discover that his true talent level is around replacement level until August, our hands are tied.

 

I kind of feel like AA is going to get this done though. Prediction: Nolin + a low level guy for Headley

 

And I don't think I like the Jays' side of that.

[TwistedLogic]

I'd actually argue the opposite of that. They have too many depth IF'er right now and must try to push the depth guys down a rung and off the 40-man. Go find a starting 2B/3B somewhere other than Buffalo.

 

No, they have crappy depth options. Guys like Kawasaki aren't going to give you consistent above-replacement production. My post was in response to there being no backup in case Headley goes down. Assuming that they do get Headley for 3B, they need to have better depth options than what they currently have. That was my point.

[DuckDuckGose]

Which wouldn't seem so bad. The floor is a replacement level player (either Headley playing at that level or his internal replacement in the event he's injured). But, as I said before, the real problem is that if we don't discover that his true talent level is around replacement level until August, our hands are tied.

 

I kind of feel like AA is going to get this done though. Prediction: Nolin + a low level guy for Headley

 

And I don't think I like the Jays' side of that.

 

Ya, I wouldn't be a fan of that deal either unless he's supposed to be healthy soon. Going under the assumption he'll perform similarly I wouldn't move any helpful starting pitching. I'd be willing to move redundant somewhat replaceable pieces that have some value. I said Drabek + Pillar + Jenkins earlier but at this point in the thread I don't think I'd include Jenkins anymore.

[Nox]

What about Sean Rodriguez instead?

 

Might cost even less to acquire.

[DuckDuckGose]

No, they have crappy depth options. Guys like Kawasaki aren't going to give you consistent above-replacement production. My post was in response to there being no backup in case Headley goes down. Assuming that they do get Headley for 3B, they need to have better depth options than what they currently have. That was my point.

 

If he is hurt they continue to go with Tolleson against lefties and Francisco against righties (with Lawrie moving between 2B and 3B), that's decent depth. I would rather they added a guy like Zobrist, Utley, Beltre, or Tulo but it's just not likely to happen.