Jays having discussions on Chase Headley

[xposbrad]

He's injured, most likely that's the reason for his struggles, so a change of scenery is not likely going to improve his offense. Chase Headley may be an upgrade but he's one of the worst possible upgrades you could pick from (for this year in particular). I love him for next year because most likely he recuperates and bounces back but this year it's just not good.

 

 

In order to take that chance for next year, we'd have to QO him, which could mean ~14m in salary, which given his current numbers are definitely not worth it. If the Jays had a 180m payroll they could afford risky moves like this, but people have to understand that risking X dollars on Headley means less money for other improvements. Ie. getting a stud starter.

[StevieRay]

not trading any of Sanchez, Norris and Pompey for the sole reason of having him on for rest of the season with no possible qualifying offer. But I'd figure one of those prospects of that caliber must be going back that way, so not holding my breath.

[shortstop]

don't think anyone would do Headley for any of those 3...

 

Padres are likely looking at a type C+ or type B prospect

[TheHurl]

Where is everyone's limit on acquiring a Headley type.

 

Stroman

Norris

Sanchez

Pompey

Nay

Osuna

DJ Davis

Alford

Low A or below guys with some upside

Nolin

Jimenez

Burns

Low A guys without as much upside

Deck

Dantzler

Schimpf

 

 

For me it's somewhere around Osuna/DJ Davis and below...but I think we can somehow get him for less.

[pickoff22]

Where is everyone's limit on acquiring a Headley type.

 

Stroman

Norris

Sanchez

Pompey

Nay

Osuna

DJ Davis

Alford

Low A or below guys with some upside

Nolin

Jimenez

Burns

Low A guys without as much upside

Deck

Dantzler

Schimpf

 

 

For me it's somewhere around Osuna/DJ Davis and below...but I think we can somehow get him for less.

 

Will depend on who we're up against and what SD's preference is in terms of position. Yankees will be in the mix I'm sure.

[StevieRay]

don't think anyone would do Headley for any of those 3...

 

Padres are likely looking at a type C+ or type B prospect

If that is the perceived value of Headley, man his value's hit rock bottom for the amount of buzz he's got the last 2 years; although rightfully so warranted as he is hitting FA this winter.

[shortstop]

I don't know the entirety of the situation but my sense is the Padres wanted to see if Headley was for real & if he was, would pony up the $$'s this upcoming off-season...I don't anyone figured Headley would be playing like this though there is likely some merit to the team sucking that brought down his overall performance...

 

he'll have made about $26M after this season & was likely banking on his final last huge contract before smaller dealers as his career winded down...so his incentive is to play through any injury imo...

 

problem for everyone is this year an anomaly or was his 1 great year a few years ago an anomaly...

 

reminds me somewhat of the Colby situation but Colby is almost guaranteed to get paid this off-season and for 4+ years...

[DuckDuckGose]

Where is everyone's limit on acquiring a Headley type.

 

Stroman

Norris

Sanchez

Pompey

Nay

Osuna

DJ Davis

Alford

Low A or below guys with some upside

Nolin

Jimenez

Burns

Low A guys without as much upside

Deck

Dantzler

Schimpf

 

 

For me it's somewhere around Osuna/DJ Davis and below...but I think we can somehow get him for less.

 

He's playing terrible/hurt and a half year rental, I wouldn't give them very much for Headley. IMO a few useful MLB pieces in a package, something like Pillar + Drabek + Jenkins, should be enough to get it done and pretty much my limit.

[shortstop]

DDG I think you're very generous

 

I'd consider Pillar and a very low prospect

[DuckDuckGose]

DDG I think you're very generous

 

I'd consider Pillar and a very low prospect

 

Meh, boder-line 4th OF'er, potential back end reliever and a swing man. Plus it would open up 3 40-man roster spots to help deal with log jam of option-less redundant pieces in AAA.

[JFD]

AA is a f***ing idiot. Headley is clearly not himself this year and won't do s*** to help us.

[shortstop]

wouldn't he help by the very fact he'd take over 3rd, Lawrie 2nd and we can stop playing Tolleson/Kawa/Francisco & have 1 or more cover days off/pinch run/hit off the bench...

[Terminator]

Oh come on guys, Headley would be a fine pickup.

 

 

The cost in acquiring him will be little more than paying the remainder of his salary and throwing in a C+ prospect. He's good as usual defensively and while his numbers are bad, he's clearly the victim of the BABIP monster. He's got a .268 BABIP with a career 25.4 LD% this year. His career BABIP is .330 for what it's worth. His walk rate is down slightly and his strikeout rate is up a tick but I don't think either is a cause for concern. If AA could get him for cheap I'd be all for it.

[43211234]

Is Nay enough to get Headley. Or maybe DJ Davis + Nay.

[shortstop]

from a couple days ago.

 

http://friarsonbase.com/2014/07/05/chase-headley-starting-find-groove/

 

In 3 games, his average has gone from .201 to .216. Just watching him swing in Friday’s game showed that he is confident and is finding a groove.

 

I know, epically small sample size but a guy in a groove for 2 weeks could mean the difference of winning a ball game or two...

[DuckDuckGose]

Is Nay enough to get Headley. Or maybe DJ Davis + Nay.

 

Waaay too much for Headley. No need to give up guys with that kind of potential for Headley as a rental.

[DuckDuckGose]

Like I've stated an infinite number of times, he is playing with a herniated disc, which may require surgery ... He's trying to fight through it, but it's of course entirely possible that it could shut him down at any time.

 

He's had 3 different calf strains that have caused him to miss time over the last two years, and he's missed time due to knee issues, twice, as well (including a surgery), in addition to back issues on two separate occasions, including the current unresolved one.

 

Acquiring Headley, in order to help this year, is one of the dumbest ideas of this season.

 

It's obvious the dude has serious health problems effecting his back and legs (often inter-related), and they aren't likely to subside (quite the opposite). And they will drain his defensive value, as well. And playing on turf? Oy.

 

Acquiring Headley is twice as stupid as QO'ing JJ, which was a monumentally dumb suggestion.

 

That's not even touching on his apparent freak finger injuries (two broken fingers in the last 3 years). Dude is a walking infirmary. No one should give a s*** that he was thuper-awethome 2 years ago. That's no longer a relevant landscape.

 

The Jays should do their due diligence on his health and consult a team of medical professionals before making the move. If everything checks out why wouldn't they go after Headley?

[shortstop]

in addition to Yanks, Cardinals may be in play...I can see Headley fitting into the personality/culture of the Cards...

 

may take a B+ prospect to land Headley...

[CJ-Freeway]

This guy is injured and his stats are not impressive at all. I'm pretty sure he won't be able to boost our offense significantly. He's not worth one of our prospects IMO.

[DuckDuckGose]

Being a rental mitigates his health risks somewhat. Hearing the extent of his injury issues, what I said earlier in terms of cost was too high. He should come cheap.

 

He's averaged 146.5 games played (or 90% of SD's games) over the last 5 seasons and has played in 76 of 88 games (76%) of SD's games this season. He's been pretty healthy over his career. You'd want to check out his back before you made the move but if it looks to improve/hold out over the year pull the trigger.

[pickoff22]

People are acting like we're picking up someone who has years left on his contract. We aren't committed to him past this year and he has been healthy enough to play the majority of games. We're all aware of his health issues which is why he could come relatively cheap. And not only is he currently better than many players we've fielded this year based on his weak stats to date but he also has shown he has the potential to produce at a much higher level. The move might not be a slam-dunk but it's certainly better than doing nothing.

[pickoff22]

You have to remember where he's playing though. In 2013 he was very valuable player despite stats that look mediocre on the surface. His career line is fairly impressive.

 

He's a plus defender with a league-average bat playing a position of need. All it will likely take is a financial commitment and a token prospect. I don't understand how anyone can be against this.

 

Well said. The 'worried about his health' argument goes out the window based on contract time left and his current ability to play as well. It's a low downside move if we're not able to pick up a higher impact guy

[NorthOf49]

This guy is injured and his stats are not impressive at all. I'm pretty sure he won't be able to boost our offense significantly. He's not worth one of our prospects IMO.

You have to remember where he's playing though. In 2013 he was very valuable player despite stats that look mediocre on the surface. His career line is fairly impressive.

 

He's a plus defender with a league-average bat playing a position of need. All it will likely take is a financial commitment and a token prospect. I don't understand how anyone can be against this.

[shortstop]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20140620&content_id=80775120&notebook_id=80785452&vkey=notebook_sd&c_id=sd

 

also sense the cardinals much prefer internal options (ie. keep Carpenter at 3rd and have Wong play 2nd everyday) then look to the market & change things around...

 

The Yanks - not sure what the heck they have to give up though one article talked about the Yanks and talent/depth at catcher (Sanchez, Romine, Murphy)...

http://www.h4-entertainment.com/2014/07/new-york-yankees-trade-target-chase-headley/

[pickoff22]

No, he'll come cheap because he's playing horribly, as he tries to fight through his health issues. Because there's virtually no value to him right now, and a ton of risk.

 

You're wrong I'm right. Not the first time. Stamped it no erasies.

[shortstop]

No, he'll come cheap because he's playing horribly, as he tries to fight through his health issues. Because there's virtually no value to him right now, and a ton of risk.

 

that's fair.

 

but the flip side is who the heck do the jays get factoring in our assumptions of a) limited additional budget don't want to take on extra years c) don't want to give up the good prospects...

 

if 1 or more of those assumptions are wrong, would likely open up the discussion on a 'better' option...

 

again, we don't know who all is being made available or if there's a under the radar player AA has his eyes on that can provide solid performance...but based on the guys we know are available and the assumptions, Headley fits the bill & other than taking on $$'s, see only upside - what's the worst that can happen - he gets hurt and/or performs at the level of Tolleson/Kawa?

[NorthOf49]

This is 2014, not 2013.

If Headley's BABIP was where it should be he'd be close to a league-average hitter. And his defense is good enough that he can survive on a 90 wRC+ anyway. He's a clear upgrade.

 

Nobody said he was perfect.

[43211234]

Waaay too much for Headley. No need to give up guys with that kind of potential for Headley as a rental.

 

I don't think so. They're both probably C prospects. Davis is already pretty much a bust. The black Kevin Ahrens.

[jays4life19]

What's the herniated disc league average performance?

 

Probably somewhere just above Juan Francisco's performance going forward.

[DuckDuckGose]

Quite the opposite re mitigation. They are acquiring him to perform NOW. Right NOW he is playing injured. Right now he's playing through something he states likely won't get better while playing, and which might require surgery (or otherwise flare up and shut him down, or hobble him even more). That makes the injury risk as high as it can possibly be without him actually being on the DL for the rest of the year. If they were acquiring him for the longer term, the risk tied to the acute issue would be somewhat mitigated, assuming there was evidence that the situation was rectifiable without further consequences/limitations and heightened risk of reoccurrences.

 

But that's not the case. Right now he's a compromised player.

 

He's an upgrade over Tolleson, Goins, Kawasaki, Izturis, Getz and Fracisco who have combined for 530 ABs this season. They'd be acquiring Headley to bump these AAA scrubs off the MLB roster to AAA where they belong. The Jays biggest problem over the last two seasons has been giving too many innings to sub-replacement level players. If there is a legit MLB'er that can help this team right now, ie Headley, then AA must inquire at the very least.

 

Additionally all this rental = increased risk is BS. Acquiring HEadley on a 2,3, 4 or 5 year deal would be far riskier. Additionally, you have no inside knowledge and no formal medical education. Why any would give a s*** about your prognosis for Headley. Consult the medical team and go from there.