R.A. Dickey just got

[Orgfiller]

...terribly unlucky. 80% HR/FB ratio is not normal. I know everyone will hate this post and say stats are ******** and whatnot, but the fact is, he struck out 9 over 6 innings while only walking 1. 4 out of 5 flyballs going for homeruns is not the norm. Dickey has had some bad starts this year but this was not one of them.

[admin]

...terribly unlucky. 80% HR/FB ratio is not normal. I know everyone will hate this post and say stats are ******** and whatnot, but the fact is, he struck out 9 over 6 innings while only walking 1. 4 out of 5 flyballs going for homeruns is not the norm. Dickey has had some bad starts this year but this was not one of them.

 

You can't compare a knuckleballer to a normal pitcher. You can't say it's unlucky when it happens on a regular basis.

Let him pitch four innings a game and take him out. A 5th or 6th inning implosion is almost guaranteed, every game.

Yes, over reaction, but I can't stand watching this guy on the mound. You just wait for the implosion.

[Orgfiller]

You can't compare a knuckleballer to a normal pitcher. You can't say it's unlucky when it happens on a regular basis.

Let him pitch four innings a game and take him out. A 5th or 6th inning implosion is almost guaranteed, every game.

Yes, over reaction, but I can't stand watching this guy on the mound. You just wait for the implosion.

 

I don't like watching him pitch either, but you can't just say because he's a knuckleballer predictive stats don't apply to him. We have to face it, as much as he's a pain to watch at times, he pitched really well and got unlucky with flyballs. His HR/FB ratio until this game was 11%, so it's not like he automatically has inflated stats.

[Anemic0ffense]

...terribly unlucky. 80% HR/FB ratio is not normal. I know everyone will hate this post and say stats are ******** and whatnot, but the fact is, he struck out 9 over 6 innings while only walking 1. 4 out of 5 flyballs going for homeruns is not the norm. Dickey has had some bad starts this year but this was not one of them.

 

Lolol

[Anemic0ffense]

I don't like watching him pitch either, but you can't just say because he's a knuckleballer predictive stats don't apply to him. We have to face it, as much as he's a pain to watch at times, he pitched really well and got unlucky with flyballs. His HR/FB ratio until this game was 11%, so it's not like he automatically has inflated stats.

 

Abreu hit 2 missles. "Poor luck".

[Orgfiller]

Abreu hit 2 missles. "Poor luck".

 

You're right on cue!

[Caper]

He pitched well. But he never should have been put back out there for the last inning.... especially when you consider all the extra you got out of Happ last night. He is a good manager, made a bad decision.

[admin]

I don't like watching him pitch either, but you can't just say because he's a knuckleballer predictive stats don't apply to him. We have to face it, as much as he's a pain to watch at times, he pitched really well and got unlucky with flyballs. His HR/FB ratio until this game was 11%, so it's not like he automatically has inflated stats.

 

I disagree. A knuckle ball that doesn't move is the same thing they pitch in the home run derby. It can be inside, outside, or over the plate. A 90mph+ fastball that misses is still hard to it. Right down the middle is easier, but it can still be hard to hit because of adjusting from a fastball to off speed pitch. With Dickey you know the speed. So if doesn't move, you tee up and crush it... evidence supports that.

[theblujay]

Its pointless to use a stat like this for a single game. All it says is that over a much bigger sample if he pitched as he did today he would most likely have done really well.

 

But it says nothing about how he did today. What he did today was give up 4 HRs

[bzapple]

Have to agree with theblujay here. The home run rate isn't sustainable, but those home runs still happened and it's not the same as Dickey giving up runs from five or six singles in a row. There's a reason xFIP is used as a predictive stat rather than a descriptive one.

[Convo]

What are we trying to say here? Dickey is still s***. 5th starter / bottom of the rotation garbage. Never comes through we need him. We score runs, he gives up more. Defense makes an error he never picks them up. Always always gets flustered in the later innings.

 

Gibbons needs to shorten his leash already, tired of this s***.

[GD]

I wonder what the year-year correlation of specific pitch type peripherals is and if the knuckleball is significantly lower.

[immature]

Never should of started the 7. When will Gibbons learn.

[burlingtonbandit]

...terribly unlucky. 80% HR/FB ratio is not normal. I know everyone will hate this post and say stats are ******** and whatnot, but the fact is, he struck out 9 over 6 innings while only walking 1. 4 out of 5 flyballs going for homeruns is not the norm. Dickey has had some bad starts this year but this was not one of them.

 

3 of the HR would of been Home runs in a lot of other ball parks. Wouldn't really call it unlucky when he threw meatballs on those pitches. He looked great in the first 4 innings. Dittto after that.

[Key22]

I think we have to check the anger at Dickey at the door. We traded a lot for him and he was a CY young winner coming off three seasons where he led baseball in most number of quality starts (3 years not just one). So many were expecting an ace.

 

What he is in the AL is a 1.3 WHIP innings eater who would be a number 3-4 starter on an elite team. If he were on that hypothetical team and was making $10 million per we'd all be very happy with him.

 

The problem is the Jays brass gave up two big time prospects and touted him as a true Ace. So people will go on a rant every time he pitches less than 7 innings and gives up more than 3 runs.

 

The frustration is that Jays fan know the reality that if we make it into the playoffs that our rotation doesn't have an Ace and we know that as good as our offense is that when we face a guy like Tanaka - our offense will get shut down and our number 3/4 starters are likely to give up 3+ runs.

 

And we know the only way to get an ace is to trade our four best prospects (Sanchez, Norris + and +). So we kind of have to ride it out this year - maybe make the playoffs and be "lucky" that our offense gets red hot and guys like Buerhle and Happ and Hutch pitch career games in the playoffs (assuming we get there).

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Dickey ruined my f***ing evening. He can go f*** himself.

[o2cui2i]

Dickey ruined my f***ing evening. He can go f*** himself.

 

and you thought 35 dollars was a good price. lol

[Daniel Labude]

Dickey sucks everyday and everynight

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't think Dickey is really performing much differently than when he was with the Mets. He is just not a fit for the AL East. Put him back at Citi Field and his ERA is probably in the low 3s.

[admin]

LOL, what f***ing evidence supports that?

 

I'm sorry, I honestly don't want to get banned, but if this was anyone else I'd probably lose my s***.

 

What part of a career 11.3 HR/FB% (11.0 on the year before tonight, in the ALE) tells you he's discernibly worse at preventing HRs than your average SP?

 

You won't get banned I'm a big boy.

I didn't say he gives up more home runs. I too can look up a stat that says he doesn't.

I said if a knuckleball doesn't move, it's a lot easier to hit hard then if a fastball misses it's spot.

I don't know if it's fatigue or just seeing him a few times per game (which doesn't make sense considering how well he did in NY), but I don't believe it's 'luck' a guy is dominant for four innings and all the sudden gives up four homeruns.

 

You don't go from under .700OPS 1st and 2nd time through the line up to .946OPS because of bad luck. These numbers will be skewed even more when updated after today's game.

[burlingtonbandit]

and you thought 35 dollars was a good price. lol

 

I think 35 dollars is great value for the game. You can't say it wasn't exciting.

[NLJays]

Tim Wakefield HR/FB% 2002-2011: 9.4% Jon Lester 2006-2014: 9.6%.

 

Knuckleballers don't give up more home runs than normal pitchers, get your facts straight and don't say dumb stuff.

 

There are two sides to a pitcher-hitter battle and you can't win all of them. Rather than rage at Dickey you should praise Jose Abreu and Alexei Ramirez, and also blame Gibby a bit for consistently leaving Dickey in too long.

 

R.A. Dickey career ERA per inning:

4th: 3.81

5th: 3.85

6th: 4.40

7th: 4.71

 

In 2014:

4th: 2.81

5th: 9.39

6th: 2.38

7th: 11.81

 

In 2013:

4th: 3.97

5th: 1.60

6th: 5.52

7th: 7.47

 

Seems pretty clear to me they should pull Dickey before the 7th.

[NLJays]

Do you mean that Dickey's 7th inning numbers are an anomaly, or that this start was an anomaly?

[NLJays]

Mark Buehrle's career ERA in the 7th is still 4.23. Verlander's is 2.40, but that seems to be an anomaly since his 6th inning ERA is 3.73 and 8th inning 5.14. Bronson Arroyo: 3.78. So the first three I've looked up, two soft-tossers and one premium arm, don't seem to be as rapidly declining in effectiveness after the 6th as Dickey.

 

This does make some sense: hitters will get used to the knuckle eventually, while Buehrle and Arroyo are very good at mixing things up and don't rely on velocity. But then Jered Weaver declines from 3.47 to 4.65 from the 6th to 7th innings. Possibly because hitters get used to his wacky delivery? I'd like to see average stats for the whole league per inning but I'm not a baseball-reference expert.

[Statman]

This game was actually pretty typical of Dickey in that he was only capable of pitching 5 effective innings and imploded when the team battled back. The innings he imploded in fit with the rest of his sample. I wouldn't call it unlucky, I would call it typical.

 

Words that come to mind when Dickey takes the mound is frustrating and demoralizing.

[orpheus]

LOL at stats freaks thinking stats explain everything...there is an obvious trend with dickey, gibbons has cost the jays 3-4 wins leaving him in way too long. Every pitcher struggles more the second and third time through, but dickey is a one trick pony trick pitcher, and the numbers the second and third time for him are horrendous. We all knew what was coming when dickey came out again, gibbons still has not caught on.

[flafson]

Not sure how you can blame Dickey, did you see our bullpen lately? Usually if there is a chance the starter might do ok, i'm fine with stretching him then give the lead to our pen (unless it's Casey)

[G-Snarls]

Did Dickey have this much trouble in the later innings during his 3 good years with the Mets?

 

Gibby wants him to go past 5 innings obviously and you'd think he SHOULD be able to.

 

Whether it's fatigue or better AL lineups getting a better feel for him the 3rd time around is hard to say.

[flafson]

Did Dickey have this much trouble in the later innings during his 3 good years with the Mets?

 

Gibby wants him to go past 5 innings obviously and you'd think he SHOULD be able to.

 

Whether it's fatigue or better AL lineups getting a better feel for him the 3rd time around is hard to say.

 

His pitches were moving A LOT, even Thole couldn't catch quite a few of the strikeouts. 1 less HR and it would have been a totally different game. Unlucky i guess.

[TDotttt2005]

I guess Bautista has found his HR Contest pitcher for the AL. Should win it easily.

 

So f***ing frustrating. HR's and Walks are something that I cannot stand watching. As has been touched on here, he's not a terrible pitcher, and may be unlucky...but he was heralded as the finishing top of the rotation piece we needed. That he is not. And its infuriating. What makes it worse is his excuses. I guess you have to give him credit for facing the media after bad outings and taking the blame (sort of), but hearing "The Pitch this...The Pitch that...". Seriously, shut the f*** up and say you threw bad hittable pitches up in the zone and you got rocked. No one wants to hear about capricious animals and other nonsense.