Notes From The Field - Aaron Sanchez - BP report

[pickoff22]

Nothing all that new here, but figured I'd post it for those interested:

 

 

 

 

Notes from the Field

Studying Aaron Sanchez

 

by Chris Mellen

 

Over the course of a season, I like to get multiple looks at a starting pitcher prospect as a baseline for establishing developmental trends and gauging progression. Similar to when sitting on a position player prospect for a series or stretch of games, there can be variability from look to look in regards to what you see. It’s possible, for instance, that in an isolated appearance a pitcher is working on one particular pitch or certain aspect of his game that doesn’t reveal the full scope of his arsenal. Or, the arm just doesn’t have it, for whatever reason, on a given night. It’s important when building the book to be able to reference reports from various points in time to compare, contrast, and look for clues that assist with making projections.

 

Aaron Sanchez entered the season high on my radar, and I knew I’d get plenty of opportunities to see him over the course of 2014 given his assignment to the Eastern League. As things would line up, I was able to catch Sanchez three times over the course of the first six weeks of the season, and build a solid base on which to follow up deeper into the schedule.

 

First report: April 15th.

The initial look at Sanchez showed premium raw stuff, especially his fastball and curveball. Both pitches can be very nasty on hitters. However, an area of need quickly emerged during the look: the consistency of the pitcher’s fastball command.

 

Second report: May 3rd.

The outing where Sanchez’s fastball looked the best gave a glimpse of what the pitch can do when executed properly. It’s downright overpowering when thrown from the thighs down and in the lower tier. A developmental pattern also began to show in this start, in that the prospect featured nothing but fastballs the first trip through the order.

 

Third report: May 10th.

The pattern continued of all fastballs the first trip through the order, but Sanchez had very little feel for his heater and paid for his wildness. The lack of consistency with the pitch is a concern. On the plus side, the pitcher’s changeup showed the best action of my three looks, and the curveball continued to demonstrate legit big-league out-pitch potential

 

Conclusion: Sanchez’s raw stuff shines when on the mound, but his rough edges and needs equally stand out. This arm is very much a work in progress, presently. Between the hard, heavy action of his fastball and crisp, deep break to the curveball his repertoire can dominate a lineup and should continue to do so as he advances. But the inconsistent fastball command within the zone and bouts of wildness leave doubts as to whether the full potential will be maximized over the long run. The delivery looks to have limitations when it comes to his ability to consistently throw downhill. The follow-up looks deeper into the year will serve as chances to evaluate what kind of progress is being made.

[RIPEXPOS]

I think the org really needs to make a point of not rushing Sanchez. I know he's got enough stuff to survive in the bigs (at least in patches) in the not too distant future, but let this kid develop for at least through 2015.

 

He's a wildcard, but if we're patient he could be special. The org must be patient though.

[G-Snarls]

I think they'll be patient with him

 

Especially if Stroman can stick now

[z3r0s]

Its good to hear positive reports about his stuff. Just gotta work on the consistency now.

 

We'll just have to give the kid time.

[crmr]

I think the org really needs to make a point of not rushing Sanchez. I know he's got enough stuff to survive in the bigs (at least in patches) in the not too distant future, but let this kid develop for at least through 2015.

 

He's a wildcard, but if we're patient he could be special. The org must be patient though.

 

This is probably what peopel said about Kyle Drabek too. You can't stick in the bigs if you can't throw strikes, and right now Sanchez looks like he cant. The only problem with him is they didn't trade him at peak value this off-season and so now have probably missed the boat as his inconsistent strike throwing continues.

 

We probably just have to stick with him for now and hope he works out, but I'm not holding my breath with that. Hopefully his stuff can shine at least in a late inning role.

[Convo]

This is probably what peopel said about Kyle Drabek too. You can't stick in the bigs if you can't throw strikes, and right now Sanchez looks like he cant. The only problem with him is they didn't trade him at peak value this off-season and so now have probably missed the boat as his inconsistent strike throwing continues.

 

We probably just have to stick with him for now and hope he works out, but I'm not holding my breath with that. Hopefully his stuff can shine at least in a late inning role.

 

Not as a starter. But we've seen successful relievers with BB rates of 4.5/9 or so, particularly guys with K rates of at least 9/9 or so.

[GD]

Not as a starter. But we've seen successful relievers with BB rates of 4.5/9 or so, particular with K rates of at least 9/9 or so.

 

Sanchez's isn't even above 7.5 I don't think

[Convo]

Sanchez's isn't even above 7.5 I don't think

 

Yeah last couple seasons it has dropped off Career is still 8.9/9

[GD]

I'm inclined to weight the higher levels more importantly.

[Atothe]

The comparison to Drabek is fair. I think he's 1.5-2 years away. Make throw fastballs at various speeds until he learns at least average major league control.

[crazy47larry]

I think they'll be patient with him

 

Especially if Stroman can stick now

 

The Jays rarely seem to practice patience in these instances. They seem to have an internal clock with each prospect that they stick to which doesnt really depend on actual development. To put it simply our organization cares more about player advancement than it does about player development. I look at Sanchez and see a player that probably needs 2 more FULL seasons worth of buildup just to get his arm strength up. He has never pitched more 100 professional innings in a year and averages 4.5 IP per start this year. Not to mention his godawful BB rate which actually seems to be trending backwards. I have my doubts he is even ready for the high minors honestly, but if hs can hold his own than its not like he should be sent back down.

[theblujay]

I'm not too concerned with his actual stats until he fixes his command issues.

[Jimcanuck]

If you are gonna compare Sanchez to Drabek because of BB rates, you might as well compare him to Halladay too.

 

Halladay sported a 5BB/9 his first two big league seasons, before Mel Queen rebuilt his mechanics.

 

If Sanchez between the ears is similar to Drabek, the comp may be valid.

[Captain Adama]

I'm not too concerned with his actual stats until he fixes his command issues.

 

The stats are a pretty big deal though, especially with his command issues. We don't know if he'll fix them or not.

[John_Havok]

He has to figure it out at AA or there's not much hope for him. Without even passable fastball command you can't survive in the majors.

[BigCecil]

He has to figure it out at AA or there's not much hope for him. Without even passable fastball command you can't survive in the majors.

 

Just ask Sergio. Wipeout slider. Cant get people to swing at it enough unless he is able to get his fastball over.

 

This was a great report on the kid. I was following his starts but its good detail. Makes me less concerned if he is part of a move for SP later this year.

[John_Havok]

Just ask Sergio. Wipeout slider. Cant get people to swing at it enough unless he is able to get his fastball over.

 

This was a great report on the kid. I was following his starts but its good detail. Makes me less concerned if he is part of a move for SP later this year.

 

Call me pessimistic but this is pretty much the same scouting report he had coming out if high school. Great fastball movement with iffy command, imprssive curve and good feel for a change up.

 

4 years later, same story. I guess the plus side he's probably just one minor adjustment away... But how many prospects can you say that about?

[BigCecil]

Call me pessimistic but this is pretty much the same scouting report he had coming out if high school. Great fastball movement with iffy command, imprssive curve and good feel for a change up.

 

4 years later, same story. I guess the plus side he's probably just one minor adjustment away... But how many prospects can you say that about?

 

That's why they are called prospects. Was reading Mets Message Board. Lots of fans losing patience with D'arnaud on O and D.

[Laika]

If the team is forcing him, for developmental reasons, to throw an uncomfortably high percentage of fastballs then it could somewhat explain his pedestrian K rates.

[John_Havok]

If the team is forcing him, for developmental reasons, to throw an uncomfortably high percentage of fastballs then it could somewhat explain his pedestrian K rates.

 

And the walk rates.

[theblujay]

The stats are a pretty big deal though, especially with his command issues. We don't know if he'll fix them or not.

 

I feel like they are restricting his starts and making him work on specific things, like fastball command. So until (if) he improves his command, we won't see his full arsenal on display in the stats.

[Captain Adama]

I feel like they are restricting his starts and making him work on specific things, like fastball command. So until (if) he improves his command, we won't see his full arsenal on display in the stats.

 

I really hope so, but if he's still struggling with fastball command at this point then that's pretty worrisome.

 

Who knows? I might be totally wrong on this one.

[Maahfaace]

If the team is forcing him, for developmental reasons, to throw an uncomfortably high percentage of fastballs then it could somewhat explain his pedestrian K rates.

 

 

I agree with this post, his k rates and bb rates are skewed based on the fact that he is pretty much throwing exclusively fastballs. If this line of development improves his overall fastball command in the future, then these stats will be as meaningless down the road, as they are to me today. I still have high hope that this kid will figure it out.