FanGraphs Power Rankings Two Months In (Based on Expected Run Differentials)

[TwistedLogic]

FanGraphs introduced a new statistic a month ago called Expected Run Differentials (xRDiff), where they use their various metrics and weights to estimate how many runs a team should have actually scored and allowed, as to how many they really did. Here is the chart from last month. As you can see, the Blue Jays ranked 17th in the majors, and 8th in the American League at the conclusion of April.

 

Yesterday they released the numbers for the month of May. Over the last month, the Blue Jays have played better than they should have, which has given them a run difference of +30 (14 more than their expected total). Despite this fact, the Jays have still improved enough to bump their rank by 6 places and finish the month in 3rd place among AL teams (9th overall), behind only the A's and the Angels.

 

What we can take from this is that the NL teams seem to be doing a whole lot better as a league, the AL East is a shell of its former self (at least, thus far), and the Jays have shown some very welcome and long-awaited improvement in all facets of the game. It is also worth noting that, had FanGraphs published this on June 1st, as opposed to May 30th, like they should have, there would be another 10 runs in there for the Jays somewhere, thanks to today's blowout.

[GD]

http://i.imgur.com/TbDl72U.jpg

 

Quick thing I made. It just shows pythos and then the expected pythos from the fangraphs metrics, and then extrapolated irresponsibly to a full season. Pytho thinks the Jays are a 90 win team, but fangraphs' expected runs and runs allowed think we're an 86ish win team, which seems more reasonable. All in all, solid place to be, 12th best team in the league but 4th best in the AL, and far and away the best in the AL East. Next closest team is the Yankees at 13, 7 wins behind or so. Rays/Red Sox aren't even in the top half of the league. Orioles are bad.

 

Luckiest teams are the Mariners, Giants, Phillies, Red Sox. Jays are 9th luckiest. Angels, Astros, Braves, Cardinals, D-Backs are most unlucky.

 

And this isn't counting today's outburst, as TL said.

[John_Havok]

I'll take the under on Oakland winning 116 games....

[GD]

I'll take the under on Oakland winning 116 games....

 

Hence the "irresponsibly" lol

 

It's too early for most of this to mean much.