Formula to predict a players offensive performance in a single game

[Comx]

Using a formula to predict a players offensive performance in a single game prior to game start. While this will obviously have huge margin for error, the idea is if you used this formula a 100 times it might balance out.

 

(Let's assume wOBA, for the sake of argument, is our best offensive metric).

 

All stats are based on ZIPS(RoS) projections:

 

wOBA * ([Park Factor] / 100) * ([ERA of Oppositiong Pitcher] / 4) * ([Avg ERA of All Opposing Relievers] / 4)

 

I'm using ERA, since we're not evaluating the pitcher solely we're evaluating the pitcher performance as part of the team I think it makes more sense.

 

Assumptions:

-League Average ERA is 4

-Park Factor is from Previous Year, to get full data

 

 

What do you think?

[Comx]

Include Handedness and GB/FB splits!

 

Great suggestion. In terms of GB/FB how do you think I could incorporate that?

[Angrioter]

Great suggestion. In terms of GB/FB how do you think I could incorporate that?

 

ERA over GB/FB / BABIP

[Governator]

Wouldn't WHIP make more sense here than ERA to guage walks & hits they might achieve vs a run they might score?

[Angrioter]

Wouldn't WHIP make more sense here than ERA to guage walks & hits they might achieve vs a run they might score?

 

WHIP

H1 = H2 = H3 = HR = Walk = HBP

[Anemic0ffense]

Nerds.

 

Just watch the game.

[TheHurl]

Nerds.

 

Just watch the game.

 

believe he's trying to win money on the game

[reedjohnsonfan]

Using a formula to predict a players offensive performance in a single game prior to game start. While this will obviously have huge margin for error, the idea is if you used this formula a 100 times it might balance out.

 

(Let's assume wOBA, for the sake of argument, is our best offensive metric).

 

All stats are based on ZIPS(RoS) projections:

 

wOBA * ([Park Factor] / 100) * ([ERA of Oppositiong Pitcher] / 4) * ([Avg ERA of All Opposing Relievers] / 4)

 

I'm using ERA, since we're not evaluating the pitcher solely we're evaluating the pitcher performance as part of the team I think it makes more sense.

 

Assumptions:

-League Average ERA is 4

-Park Factor is from Previous Year, to get full data

 

 

What do you think?

 

 

Make sure all your stats are projections, I think you know this but didn't put it in your post. Also I'm confused why you chose that weighting for pitchers. Seems like a good start though.

[GD]

Nerds.

 

Just watch the game.

 

Lol, what a f***ing dunce. Love it when this line comes out.

 

--

 

Great work OP, hopefully the custom reports helped.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Include Handedness and GB/FB splits!

 

Initially read this as "handsomeness"

 

Time to re-evaluate life.

[GD]

Initially read this as "handsomeness"

 

Time to re-evaluate life.

 

Boxy would want him to include handsomeness.

[o2cui2i]

initially read this as "handsomeness"

 

time to re-evaluate life.

 

lol

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Great effort from OP and he doesn't even get one "Thanks"!

 

Give him a break hive-members. He's trying his best to break into your group!

[jays4life19]

Using a formula to predict a players offensive performance in a single game prior to game start. While this will obviously have huge margin for error, the idea is if you used this formula a 100 times it might balance out.

 

(Let's assume wOBA, for the sake of argument, is our best offensive metric).

 

All stats are based on ZIPS(RoS) projections:

 

wOBA * ([Park Factor] / 100) * ([ERA of Oppositiong Pitcher] / 4) * ([Avg ERA of All Opposing Relievers] / 4)

 

I'm using ERA, since we're not evaluating the pitcher solely we're evaluating the pitcher performance as part of the team I think it makes more sense.

 

Assumptions:

-League Average ERA is 4

-Park Factor is from Previous Year, to get full data

 

 

What do you think?

 

 

Do you play Fanduel/Draftkings ect?

[The Cats Ass]

Not sure if it'll really effect the outcome but the average ERA for last year was 3.87.

[GD]

Great effort from OP and he doesn't even get one "Thanks"!

 

Give him a break hive-members. He's trying his best to break into your group!

 

Noted and thanked. He'll know he's made it when he gets a Nox thanks.

 

-#1 Nox fanboy

[Orgfiller]

I thought this was going to be another lame attempt at "New pitching stat," pleasantly surprised.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Not sure if it'll really effect the outcome but the average ERA for last year was 3.87.

 

Actually I think batting average is trending downward if I'm not mistaken. So presumably ERA is as well, maybe use something a little lower than 3.8 and that would affect the results a decent amount. It sounds like he wants to bet on over/unders, so average ERA is of course really important to get correct.

[Boxcar]

Boxy would want him to include handsomeness.

 

Why else do you think Dan Haren has an ERA under 3?

[Boxcar]

Noted and thanked. He'll know he's made it when he gets a Nox thanks.

 

-#1 Nox fanboy

 

I believe ECJF is the #1 Nox fanboy. You can have #2 though.

[reedjohnsonfan]

Why else do you think Dan Haren has an ERA under 3?

 

20% of MLB hitters are gay IMO. So handsomeness has some effect.

[Anemic0ffense]

Lol, what a f***ing dunce. Love it when this line comes out.

 

--

 

Great work OP, hopefully the custom reports helped.

 

 

Making $ while doing this research, is one thing... If you're not actually making money while studying these numbers, it's kinda sad.

 

I guess I'm not surprised though. Just one of the many reasons why there's so many clueless people in the world, who have no idea what's going on around them.

[GD]

I believe ECJF is the #1 Nox fanboy. You can have #2 though.

 

I will not settle for this. Gladiator battle to the death. f*** the midnight at bloor s***.

 

Making $ while doing this research, is one thing... If you're not actually making money while studying these numbers, it's kinda sad.

 

I guess I'm not surprised though. Just one of the many reasons why there's so many clueless people in the world, who have no idea what's going on around them.

 

If one person enjoys the game in a way that isn't yours, then why do you think you have any right to take that away from them? Is your way superior?

[darthjon]

Using a formula to predict a players offensive performance in a single game prior to game start. While this will obviously have huge margin for error, the idea is if you used this formula a 100 times it might balance out.

 

(Let's assume wOBA, for the sake of argument, is our best offensive metric).

 

All stats are based on ZIPS(RoS) projections:

 

wOBA * ([Park Factor] / 100) * ([ERA of Oppositiong Pitcher] / 4) * ([Avg ERA of All Opposing Relievers] / 4)

 

I'm using ERA, since we're not evaluating the pitcher solely we're evaluating the pitcher performance as part of the team I think it makes more sense.

 

Assumptions:

-League Average ERA is 4

-Park Factor is from Previous Year, to get full data

 

 

What do you think?

 

I think you have to get a lot more specific than this for single game performance. For example, park factor is too general compared to something more specific like having a lefty power hitter playing in Yankee Stadium. Lefty/Righty splits also become very valuable for players who have a big split, as well as home/away splits.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

I believe ECJF is the #1 Nox fanboy. You can have #2 though.

 

Yeah I can't wait to meet him he's so dreamy

[Anemic0ffense]

If one person enjoys the game in a way that isn't yours, then why do you think you have any right to take that away from them? Is your way superior?

 

Guess the same could be said about the elitists on this board, who look down at those who don't know every advanced stat in the book. There even needs to be warnings to those posters, just so they don't scare any newcomers to this board. Lol THAT to me is sad.

[Anemic0ffense]

ITT: Someone s***ing on intellectual curiosity while simultaneously ranting about how there are too many ignorant people in the world.

 

Again, same could be said about you advance statistics nerds, who criticize those who don't study the #'s 24/7, and then act like you're also a master at world events, when you don't know jack. Goes both ways stache.

[Anemic0ffense]

Lmao.

 

Why exactly was he un-banned?

 

Anything I've read has been the worst thing ever, stealing the deserving record from his previous post.

 

You're just a dummy, who guarantee beyond the nerd stats, doesn't know jack about the real world.

[Anemic0ffense]

Why exactly was he un-banned?

 

That's exactly what little Hitlers like you love to do. To silence dissent, whether it's regarding sports or something else.

 

Go ahead, ban me... For what I don't know

[TheHurl]

That's exactly what little Hitlers like you love to do. To silence dissent, whether it's regarding sports or something else.

 

Hitler wasn't a stat nerd...keep your comps correct please.

 

Go ahead, ban me... For what I don't know

 

making generalizations about half the board. I've met a big chunk of these people and we have talked about baseball, politics, other sports, women, men...most of these guys could have intellectual conversations about any subject. You don't like stats...we get it! It's also a pretty one sided discussion on your part. A guy like Moogy posts anti-stat stuff, but he turns around and offers opinions about a players swing. Do you? Do you offer anything?