Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[reedjohnsonfan]

What did you guys come up with when considering if optimal lineup might not be the same thing as maximizing your odds of getting above 50th (for the 50/50s)? Off the top of my head, it seems like that could be a problem. Maybe I missed this earlier in the thread?

[Boxcar]

I am a little surprised no optimals are going Harvey/Carrasco.

 

And I swear this system is actually just JFaS himself plugged into the usb slot on his laptop with how often it picks Souza.

[VegaBond]

It's 2$ refund night for MLB Squeeze games tonight. So if you lose you will get a refund.

[NorthOf49]

If you don't pick Carrasco today, you're doing it wrong.

[Boxcar]

P Carlos Carrasco P 35.9 swap out

P Matt Harvey P 32.5 swap out

C Travis d'Arnaud 6.5 swap out

1B Joey Votto 14.9 swap out

2B Jose Altuve 7.6 swap out

3B Miguel Cabrera 15.4 swap out

SS Marcus Semien 8.4 swap out

OF Mark Canha 12.3 swap out

OF Joc Pederson 8.7 swap out

OF Jerry Sands 12.0

 

This is what I picked before optimals updated. I don't feel safe having a guy like Norris against a patient team like TB.

[NorthOf49]

This is what I picked before optimals updated. I don't feel safe having a guy like Norris against a patient team like TB.

Greene and Norris are nice values but Carrasco and Harvey are going to crush the field.

[Boxcar]

Greene and Norris are nice values but Carrasco and Harvey are going to crush the field.

 

Agreed, really only Greene gives me pause.

[Abomination]

Is your Google drive sync broken JFaS? Only getting the information document atm.

[Boxcar]

Shane Greene gets no respect.

[Boxcar]

The projections themselves are having loading issues for me, dunno about anyone else.

[GoldBull]

After reading through the archive of this thread, I've signed up for FanDuel (DK is blocked on my work computer). Really appreciate the optimal lineups, JFaS.

 

I'm going to play some cheap games to try and get the hang of things and then may ask a couple questions around methodologies (if that's cool)...

[43211234]

The projections themselves are having loading issues for me, dunno about anyone else.

 

Yeah I just went to look and they didn't load in brower. I just clicked the download button and that worked fine.

[Laika]

Souza monster shot. Come at me.

 

extra points for distance?

[Boxcar]

omfg Carrasco finishes with -1.6 because ******* Melky Cabrera smokes him in the face.

[43211234]

omfg Carrasco finishes with -1.6 because ******* Melky Cabrera smokes him in the face.

 

lol you're in one of my 50/50s. Carlos certainly isn't helping your team!

[Boxcar]

lol you're in one of my 50/50s. Carlos certainly isn't helping your team!

 

I am f***ed

[43211234]

I am f***ed

 

I have him too. Looks like we both took JFaS' projections and made some tweaks.

[Abomination]

Interesting. In my tourney, Harvey is only 30% owned (really?). In my 50/50, he's 69% owned.

[43211234]

Interesting. In my tourney, Harvey is only 30% owned (really?). In my 50/50, he's 69% owned.

 

He's at 90 and 94% in my two 50/50s

[Boxcar]

Steamer optimal was pretty nice today. Too bad Carrasco got hurt or I might have made some money tonight.

[nmrch]

Pretty good night,

 

ZiPS and FGDC cashed easily. Most of my Steamer lineups cashed but some of them ended up just short

 

So sort of like a 2.5-.5 night

[Abomination]

Of all the times to NOT enter a tournament, I had to pick tonight. My FD 50/50 lineup scored 48.75 points. Not a winning score I'm sure, but should have placed nicely.

[SpeedyGose]

Hey JFaS, do you think you will be able to update before the noon games? Last lineup just came in

[nmrch]

On it.

 

hmm, $3000 left on the table for ZiPS and FGDC, replaced Taylor and Victorino with Trout

[L54]

It's killing everyone in the Atlanta game because my weather source says rain, but it's not raining there right now.

 

E: Just changed to overcast, rerunning.

 

Ya I checked the hourly earlier and it should be good to be honest.

[Laika]

that's better.

 

Stanton vs Stults is like 1+1

[BrianV]

How do people feel about the All Day 50/50s vs. the Evening 50/50s?

 

Does anyone have a higher / lower percentage in either?

 

All day naturally gives more variables the optimizer can work with... but also more players who will naturally be streaky one way or the other.

 

Perhaps it balances out, but I'd be curious to see statistics from those of you who have been keeping them.

[Laika]

How do people feel about the All Day 50/50s vs. the Evening 50/50s?

 

Does anyone have a higher / lower percentage in either?

 

All day naturally gives more variables the optimizer can work with... but also more players who will naturally be streaky one way or the other.

 

Perhaps it balances out, but I'd be curious to see statistics from those of you who have been keeping them.

 

With more games, there's higher variance in teams/scores so I'd think the optimals would do better. With a small slate of games it's actually pretty easy to just look at lineups and pick a lot of "optimal" players yourself.

 

Basically with more data to sort through, the human brain will be worse at picking a close to optimal lineup. So the computer should shine!

 

Theoretically

[nmrch]

How do people feel about the All Day 50/50s vs. the Evening 50/50s?

 

Does anyone have a higher / lower percentage in either?

 

All day naturally gives more variables the optimizer can work with... but also more players who will naturally be streaky one way or the other.

 

Perhaps it balances out, but I'd be curious to see statistics from those of you who have been keeping them.

 

theoretically smaller player pool will mean higher variance but there shouldn't be a difference in accuracy.

[Laika]

theoretically smaller player pool will mean higher variance but there shouldn't be a difference in accuracy.

 

Shouldn't it mean less variance? More likely that teams will have the same players.