Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[nmrch]

Anyone want to start a 2015 mlb dfs thread? We can share ideas, strategies and general insight

 

I'm gonna be going all out this season, i just started building my program, my goal is to have everything as automated as possible which would cut down on the both the time i would have to spend in season and also the error resulting from human biases.

 

I'm only about 15% of the way through and have almost exactly a month to finish this, gonna have to find a ton of free time to work out, it will be close but it should be ready for the first full slate of games which i believe is on April 6th. I'll focus exclusively on fanduel 50/50, they're the simplest and they're the best way to measure whether my model is on point at all

[Nox]

Steps to a basic but probably profitable baseball model (H2H and 50-50s):

 

1) Average Zips and Steamer ROS projections (weight as you see fit)

2) Scale projections down to daily amounts (per 4.5 PAs or whatever)

3) Adjust for Opponent pitcher/lineup/defense

4) Park Adjust

5) Adjust for splits (Handedness and GB/FB being the two most important)

6) Input daily projections and prices into optimization engine which picks the lineup for you

7) Profit

[nmrch]

Steps to a basic but probably profitable baseball model (H2H and 50-50s):

 

1) Average Zips and Steamer ROS projections (weight as you see fit)

2) Scale projections down to daily amounts (per 4.5 PAs or whatever)

3) Adjust for Opponent pitcher/lineup/defense

4) Park Adjust

5) Adjust for splits (Handedness and GB/FB being the two most important)

6) Input daily projections and prices into optimization engine which picks the lineup for you

7) Profit

 

wow, this is along the lines of what i'm doing, my model will account for a couple of more factors but you nailed the basic structure. Automating it though has proven to be much more challenging than it sounds.

[Nox]

wow, this is along the lines of what i'm doing, my model will account for a couple of more factors but you nailed the basic structure. Automating it though has proven to be much more challenging than it sounds.

 

Are you writing code to do this? Or Excel?

 

The automation is pretty easy in Python (Beautiful Soup) or .Net (HtmlAgility) . I'm sure Java has reasonable equivalents.

[TheHurl]

My NBA Freeroll team. Side wager among BJMB'ers for a $1?

 

PG

Mo Williams

CHA v LAL

PG

John Wall

WAS @ CHI

SG

Tony Snell

CHI v WAS

SG

Will Barton

DEN v MIL

SF

LeBron James

CLE v BOS

SF

Rudy Gay

SAC @ NY

PF

Nikola Mirotic

CHI v WAS

PF

Nene Hilario

WAS @ CHI

C

Marc Gasol

MEM v UTA

[nmrch]

...

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Are you writing code to do this? Or Excel?

 

The automation is pretty easy in Python (Beautiful Soup) or .Net (HtmlAgility) . I'm sure Java has reasonable equivalents.

 

Now I see why you aren't building me an algorithm to exploit oil volatility. Too busy making 15 bucks a night in Fan Duel!

 

#Priorities

[nmrch]

Are you writing code to do this? Or Excel?

 

The automation is pretty easy in Python (Beautiful Soup) or .Net (HtmlAgility) . I'm sure Java has reasonable equivalents.

 

Java, and Jsoup for the scraping. That part was pretty but i'm not an experienced programmer and have little database experience, so building the database is going pretty slowly.

[jays4life19]

Looks like it's going to be easier to get guys to join games this year which is awesome. It was pretty impossible to get 4 people to join last year.

[NorthOf49]

Are you writing code to do this? Or Excel?

 

The automation is pretty easy in Python (Beautiful Soup) or .Net (HtmlAgility) . I'm sure Java has reasonable equivalents.

BeautifulSoup looks very useful. I'll probably create some sort of model for baseball.

 

I'm assuming the DFS users you guys are competing against just pick players based on their gut?

[TheHurl]

BeautifulSoup looks very useful. I'll probably create some sort of model for baseball.

 

I'm assuming the DFS users you guys are competing against just pick players based on their gut?

 

I don't think they are researching the opponents (the daily grinders do that though) but seeing as they are in 50/50's at small stakes it's safe to say they are just guys playing by heart. I was on a roll with the DF (was up from $10 to $80) lineup back in November when I saw a lineup I liked so I played half my bankroll in 100 team 50/50's or double up's. Sabres were playing Pittsburgh and the DF lineup had Crosby and Kunitz. I ended up with a score in the 40's (which is really good for hockey) and didn't make a cent. at least 60 of 100 teams had Crosby, Kunitz, Letang and Hornqvist. Letang and Hornqvist both had 2 goals and an assist and I was buried. So either everyone is going by their heart or all using similar DF suggested lineup sheets. I just happened to choose the wrong day to bet half my bankroll. But when so many teams are picking in a similar way you can see how it's easy to beat them in a 50/50.

[NorthOf49]

How does the withdrawal process work? I assume they'll deposit to Paypal with a short delay or something.

 

Also, which of FD and DK is better for baseball?

[LTR]

Steps to a basic but probably profitable baseball model (H2H and 50-50s):

 

1) Average Zips and Steamer ROS projections (weight as you see fit)

2) Scale projections down to daily amounts (per 4.5 PAs or whatever)

3) Adjust for Opponent pitcher/lineup/defense

4) Park Adjust

5) Adjust for splits (Handedness and GB/FB being the two most important)

6) Input daily projections and prices into optimization engine which picks the lineup for you

7) Profit

 

Way to go you dink! But I wouldn't say profit is automatic... a large portion of the entrants are doing some similar variation of this so you have to be better. dailyfantasysportsrankings.com also has a tool you can subscribe to ($15/mo) that does pretty much this. And you have to be diligent with your line-ups to the last minute... if a player is out of the line-up unexpectedly and you have him in yours you will probably lose.

[GD]

Way to go you dink! But I wouldn't say profit is automatic... a large portion of the entrants are doing some similar variation of this so you have to be better. dailyfantasysportsrankings.com also has a tool you can subscribe to ($15/mo) that does pretty much this. And you have to be diligent with your line-ups to the last minute... if a player is out of the line-up unexpectedly and you have him in yours you will probably lose.

 

Banned again? lol

[King]

Banned again? lol

 

Said he was making a new account at the start of the season. Probably should have used something other than the intials of "LongTimeReader" if he wanted to be in secret (and avoid this thread).

[TheHurl]

Meh, Nox has been called a lot worse than "dink". LTR. Do not go getting into personal useless arguments, especially in a constructive. threads. You know you'll have a short leash.

[LTR]

Clearly wasn't an attack and more a bit of humour on the fact that he was giving away trade secrets (so to speak)...

 

Why am I on short leash... I think both times I got banned was because I wanted to be or set out to be...

 

Also I'm clearly not hiding...

[LTR]

On the topic of being constructive I'm pretty sure that's all I have been doing since I rejoined.

 

And on that note I would also suggest averaging 3+ years of PF to get more reliable data.

[jays4life19]

Meh, Nox has been called a lot worse than "dink". LTR. Do not go getting into personal useless arguments, especially in a constructive. threads. You know you'll have a short leash.

 

honestly i thought that was a pretty constructive comment but maybe i'm biased because i like the guy and i just read just so much s*** in the GDT today at work.

[jays4life19]

Said he was making a new account at the start of the season. Probably should have used something other than the intials of "LongTimeReader" if he wanted to be in secret (and avoid this thread).

 

I don't think he's trying to hide who he is. He probably realized his name was kinda lame. (says the guy who has a lame username too) lol

 

Andd to add something constructive i can't emphasize enough how important is to check your lineups before the games start. Guys get days off and games get rained out. If you just put together an optimal lineup in the morning and forgot about it..it can really f*** you over.

[Spanky99]

Yeah...and LTR has no other open account, either.

[Nox]

Way to go you dink! But I wouldn't say profit is automatic... a large portion of the entrants are doing some similar variation of this so you have to be better. dailyfantasysportsrankings.com also has a tool you can subscribe to ($15/mo) that does pretty much this. And you have to be diligent with your line-ups to the last minute... if a player is out of the line-up unexpectedly and you have him in yours you will probably lose.

 

I highly doubt most "systems" know how to actually combine those adjustments properly. I also very much doubt any of them know anything about anything past that basic list.

 

dailyfantasysportsrankings.com also has a tool you can subscribe to ($15/mo) that does pretty much this.

 

Those who can't bet, tout.

[Boxcar]

So like...do I have to do all this computery s*** to make money?

[jays4life19]

So like...do I have to do all this computery s*** to make money?

 

Not really.

 

I'd also like to point out for the people who aren't the Nox's/JFAS/LTR's of the world. Don't let it discourage you from signing up and playing even if you can't put together a projection system. Fanduel is really fun and is a form of entertainment and if you're knowledgeable you probably won't lose much money. I don't use any projection systems i spend 30 mins or so putting together a lineup and it's great fun even though i don't make any crazy money it's a blast.

[jays4life19]

How does the withdrawal process work? I assume they'll deposit to Paypal with a short delay or something.

 

Also, which of FD and DK is better for baseball?

 

Yeah you can cash out with Paypal.

 

I had them send me a cheque which they processed in like 48 hours and had it in like a week. The only s***** part was it was in US$ so my bank held it for like a month. I know people who cash out with Paypal and it's quite quick. They have great customer service if you shoot them a question you get a reply in like 10 mins.

 

It's pretty awesome. When i had to cash out on sports interaction i had to scan copies of my credit card and ID. FD was painless.

[LTR]

Those who can't bet, tout.

 

I don't use their tool, but I read their daily blog line-up recommendations (which are based off their tools data) as a sanity test against my own line-ups... I know at least a couple other people here that do this as well.

[jays4life19]

I don't use their tool, but I read their daily blog line-up recommendations (which are based off their tools data) as a sanity test against my own line-ups... I know at least a couple other people here that do this as well.

 

I don't think you need to do any "sanity tests" based on your history in daily fantasy sports. I'm going to reach out to you more this year for recommendations on my lineups (when we don't play against each other). I'm going to try to play more this year but still think I'll do the bigger tournaments unless it's a H2H on this board.

[LTR]

I don't think you need to do any "sanity tests" based on your history in daily fantasy sports. I'm going to reach out to you more this year for recommendations on my lineups (when we don't play against each other). I'm going to try to play more this year but still think I'll do the bigger tournaments unless it's a H2H on this board.

 

You are funny man. Do it up!

[Laika]

So like...do I have to do all this computery s*** to make money?

 

Just sign up for Nox's $1/week mailing list. He gives 9am access to all of his optimal lineups + updates with every news change during the day (goalie swaps, injuries).

 

Also, 20% of his profits go towards research for male enhancement. So you're supporting a good cause.

[tercet]

Vernon Wells made the Draft Kings NBA World Championships finals

 

2mill prize pool, 1 mill first place..

 

https://www.draftkings.com/lp/nba-world-championship-2015