Does anyone play Fan Duel?

[LongTimeReader]

The first little while I was playing $5, $10, $25, $50, and sometimes $100 double-up games (I only started playing this year).

 

There's a lot of luck on a night by night basis but not in the long run / not if you're using all of the data available to determine the optimum pts per line-up.

 

I'm about $1,600 up right now (I was hoping for a lot more tbh...).

 

By the way, never play the public head-to-head matches... 99% of those guys are absolute pros (they'll take your money). I recommend the league double-up games and I also play the big tournament games for fun.

[jays4life19]

The first little while I was playing $5, $10, $25, $50, and sometimes $100 double-up games (I only started playing this year).

 

There's a lot of luck on a night by night basis but not in the long run / not if you're using all of the data available to determine the optimum pts per line-up.

 

I'm about $1,600 up right now (I was hoping for a lot more tbh...).

 

By the way, never play the public head-to-head matches... 99% of those guys are absolute pros (they'll take your money). I recommend the league double-up games and I also play the big tournament games for fun.

 

You joined in May of this year and you have 1900+ wins. You're a legend.

[LongTimeReader]

You joined in May of this year and you have 1900+ win. You're a legend.

 

No way. I'm just better than most.

 

The funny thing is, deep down, my inspiration was I wanted to quit my f***ing job (and just make money betting on baseball)... I'm disappointed I couldn't do better... I still have to work 9-5, 40 hours at week... and that makes me a scrub like everybody else.

[jays4life19]

Who does everyone like tomorrow?

A couple value guys i really like are Bishop Sankey (5900) and Golden Tate (6300). I think both have big days.

 

Also i need a suggestion on a kicker for 4900 or less and a defense (New Orleans?) 5000 or less.

 

EDIT: Lions and Parkey it is.

Edited October 4, 2014 by jays4life19

[nmrch]

So i decided to deposit to try it out for the playoffs and get a feel for it going into next season. Went 3-0(with one pending today) in the 50/50's so far but lost an expensive(relative to the 50/50's i entered) tournament so i'm only slightly up, placed 11th out of 80 in the tournament so that hurt real bad and it was obviously stupid of me bankroll management wise. I'll probably stay away from the tournaments altogether unless i consistently place in the top 10% in the 50/50's.

 

I might even try to build a model in the offseason, it feels like Baseball could be beatable if you're doing the right things, the competition isn't as tough as i anticipated. There's so many rosters i notice that just don't make sense to me, ignoring platoon splits, no stacking etc

 

BTW, have any of you regulars seen evidence supporting or refuting stacking, instinctually it feels like stacking is not only a must but arguably the key to forming a good lineup but apparently its hotly debated and i don't understand why.

[LongTimeReader]

So i decided to deposit to try it out for the playoffs and get a feel for it going into next season. Went 3-0(with one pending today) in the 50/50's so far but lost an expensive(relative to the 50/50's i entered) tournament so i'm only slightly up, placed 11th out of 80 in the tournament so that hurt real bad and it was obviously stupid of me bankroll management wise. I'll probably stay away from the tournaments altogether unless i consistently place in the top 10% in the 50/50's.

 

I might even try to build a model in the offseason, it feels like Baseball could be beatable if you're doing the right things, the competition isn't as tough as i anticipated. There's so many rosters i notice that just don't make sense to me, ignoring platoon splits, no stacking etc

 

BTW, have any of you regulars seen evidence supporting or refuting stacking, instinctually it feels like stacking is not only a must but arguably the key to forming a good lineup but apparently its hotly debated and i don't understand why.

 

The play-offs are mostly a crap-shoot, not enough players in the pool to choose from.

 

A lot of people go with a 'high risk / high reward' line-up in tournaments, which usually means selecting a less expensive pitcher and putting more $ into offense, I just go with whatever line-up projects to give me the most points. You can't expect to win often in the tournaments, obviously.

 

Stacking line-ups is not really a strategy by itself. The only reason your line-up should be stacked is if that particular line-up projects to give you the most points. But I imagine most people are not gathering enough data to generate accurate single-game projections and if you're just playing for small $ then I'd say just have fun with it and do what you want.

[nmrch]

 

Stacking line-ups is not really a strategy by itself. The only reason your line-up should be stacked is if that particular line-up projects to give you the most points.

 

 

This is what i'm not convinced about, given how important runs and rbi's are to the scoring system, i see obvious advantages to stacking, its not just about picking the best projected players in a given day. If you have a power hitter in your lineup his RBI's are worth more if you also have a high OBP guy hitting before him that is also in your lineup and this applies vice versa. Anyways, i'll have to study this later and see if i'm completely wrong and if i'm not i gotta try to think about how to properly incorporate it into my projections.

[LongTimeReader]

This is what i'm not convinced about, given how important runs and rbi's are to the scoring system, i see obvious advantages to stacking, its not just about picking the best projected players in a given day. If you have a power hitter in your lineup his RBI's are worth more if you also have a high OBP guy hitting before him that is also in your lineup and this applies vice versa. Anyways, i'll have to study this later and see if i'm completely wrong and if i'm not i gotta try to think about how to properly incorporate it into my projections.

 

I only would agree in that sense that if you have, for example, Barry Bonds in the line-up instead of some scrub, that should alter the projected points of those hitting around him. From my perspective this is simply too difficult to calculate, too many permutations and you'd need to gather all the line-ups in time and then do your projections.

[jays4life19]

I only would agree in that sense that if you have, for example, Barry Bonds in the line-up instead of some scrub, that should alter the projected points of those hitting around him. From my perspective this is simply too difficult to calculate, too many permutations and you'd need to gather all the line-ups in time and then do your projections.

 

Are you still playing in the post season? I stopped once the season ended.

[jays4life19]

 

I might even try to build a model in the offseason, it feels like Baseball could be beatable if you're doing the right things, the competition isn't as tough as i anticipated. There's so many rosters i notice that just don't make sense to me, ignoring platoon splits, no stacking etc

 

Daily Fantasy Sports is such a dumb saturated market. With all the commercials FanDuel/Draftings/DraftStreet ect run advertising the 100% sign up bonus you have all these people who have no clue what their doing signing up so if you play the 50/50's and have a model/system that you follow you can do quite well right now.

[LongTimeReader]

Are you still playing in the post season? I stopped once the season ended.

 

Yeah. I cashed out at the end of the reg season but left a little just for fun for the postseason.

[jays4life19]

Yeah. I cashed out at the end of the reg season but left a little just for fun for the postseason.

 

You know what i hate about cashing out on FanDuel. They send you the cheque in US funds and then your bank (or at least mine) holds it for like a month.

 

Same thing happen to you?

[LongTimeReader]

You know what i hate about cashing out on FanDuel. They send you the cheque in US funds and then your bank (or at least mine) holds it for like a month.

 

Same thing happen to you?

 

I just use Paypal, get it in a few days. Withdraw to my bank from there.

[LongTimeReader]

If all goes well next year I'll only have to cash out once at the end of the season

[Nox]

For 50-50/double up/headsup games, you're looking to maximize your mean projected points.

 

For games with different payout structures (like a triple up/quadruple up), a lineup with the highest mean projected points is often times not the optimal play. In those formats, you want to seek higher variance lineup combinations (Selecting teammates/linemantes is the easiest way to do this...QB/WR combos in football). The reason for this simply is that payoffs are not symmetrical. A really bad result pays the same as a league average result ($0). You're interested in maximizing the probability that a high variance event will happen for your team, even if it degrades the expected mean points of your team for a given night.

[Laika]

Why did I play it safe today and not go in a tournament?!?! I'd be in first by more than 2 points in all the Draft King hosted tourneys.

 

I'd say because you're a huge pussy, but I think that was a rhetorical question.

[jays4life19]

Fanduel 50/505s today:

1/80

1/80

1/80

 

DraftKings

1/60

1/60

1/60

1/60

1/40

 

And I didn't enter a tournament

 

Man, that blows.

 

Do you prefer playing on Fanduel or Draft Kings?

[Laika]

How much do those big tournaments pay out?

[Laika]

$2 in I would have came out with $1000

$25 in would have came out with $10000 etc

 

Do you think there's an exploitable opportunity with NHL FD or DK pools? i.e., if you buy in every day for $2 in a 50/50 pool with 50 or 100 entrants, and submit an optimal lineup, would you probably make a real profit?

 

(or whatever other investment / pool arrangement)

[AdamGreenwood]

I used to play FanDuel before they signed an endorsement deal with Michael Vick.

Now I play FantasyFeud instead. Basically the same product. Maybe a little better.

[Abomination]

Do you think there's an exploitable opportunity with NHL FD or DK pools? i.e., if you buy in every day for $2 in a 50/50 pool with 50 or 100 entrants, and submit an optimal lineup, would you probably make a real profit?

 

(or whatever other investment / pool arrangement)

 

Looking into it closer is something I'd really like to do, but for 50/50 tournaments I'm not sure a traditional optimal lineup would be the right strategy. You don't have to finish first, just in the money. I suspect reducing some variability may be more helpful than achieving on average a slightly higher scoring, but more volatile lineup.

[Nox]

I suspect reducing some variability may be more helpful than achieving on average a slightly higher scoring, but more volatile lineup.

 

Maybe slightly. Maybe.

 

More likely though (IMO) would be that model error of such fine-grained variance tweaking would just lead to sub-optimal results.

 

A basic heuristic of "No teammates" might be useful if it doesn't reduce your mean by any more than 5% or something (just spit-balling).

[Abomination]

A basic heuristic of "No teammates" might be useful if it doesn't reduce your mean by any more than 5% or something (just spit-balling).

 

That's an interesting point. I hope I can free up some time soon to give it all a go.

[jays4life19]

5$ 5 person "family friendly gambling" league. Winner takes all. (22.50)

 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/DVHOKNAEV?seatCreated=true&trackEntry=1&username=kenssb&stake=5&tableId=6614509&tableType=

[TheHurl]

How much do those big tournaments pay out?

 

I'm going to play the Sunday $3 Million for football next week. $25 entry...you got to be almost perfect to win the thing but who knows.

[burlingtonbandit]

Victiv:https://www.victiv.com/ref?code=iazxgns7bu

Freerolls for Football(Thrusday and Sunday Start) and Hockey on Saturday. Guaranteed tourneys don't always get filled.

 

Do they have a good track record with payouts? Thats my only question with some of the lesser known sites.

[jays4life19]

Anyone want to play today?

[jays4life19]

5$ 5 person game. Winner takes all.

 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/FEPGKOXWG

[TheHurl]

5$ 5 person game. Winner takes all.

 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/FEPGKOXWG

 

In!

[jays4life19]

5$ 5 person game. Winner takes all.

 

https://www.fanduel.com/entry/FEPGKOXWG

 

2 more!