Josh Johnson out 4-5 weeks with 'strained right forearm'

[KingKat]

What's even the point of arguing it? It's in the past and doesn't matter anymore. We only care about future performance and I don't think anyone here would argue he's going to have an ERA above 4.5 again.

 

It's about labels. I think he had a good year. You guys think he had a bad year. It's just labels. He's still a good pitcher.

 

JFaS, I suggest you read this article. In it, the author proposes a theory that BABIP might normalize not because it's outside of a pitcher's control but because it's mostly (but not always) a self-regulating process. Whether it's true or not, one thing is sure, there are definitely BABIP beaters out there (most infamously Mariano Rivera) and odds are the opposite exists as well. I would be wary of being so categorical when you qualify all batted ball results a mear luck. It's not that your reasoning isn't sound but in science there are no laws only theories.

 

http://bjays.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/a-different-look-at-babip/

[GD]

JFaS, I suggest you read this article. In it, the author proposes a theory that BABIP might normalize not because it's outside of a pitcher's control but because it's mostly (but not always) a self-regulating process. Whether it's true or not, one thing is sure, there are definitely BABIP beaters out there (most infamously Mariano Rivera) and odds are the opposite exists as well. I would be wary of being so categorical when you qualify all batted ball results a mear luck. It's not that your reasoning isn't sound but in science there are no laws only theories.

 

http://bjays.wordpress.com/2011/02/10/a-different-look-at-babip/

 

Over large enough samples, sure, but JJ, as someone with a .302 BABIP (not too out of the range of normal), isn't exactly someone I'd classify a BABIP beater, especially not based off of an 81.1 IP sample.

 

Article seems interesting though.

[KingKat]

Over large enough samples, sure, but JJ, as someone with a .302 BABIP (not too out of the range of normal), isn't exactly someone I'd classify a BABIP beater, especially not based off of an 81.1 IP sample.

 

Article seems interesting though.

 

Yeah it's an intersting thougth experiment anyways. The guy who wrote it used to post on the old board under the name DorMouse and I've seen him post here once under halejon I think. On the old board, he was the most stat savvy guy until Nox came along. Jon has some blind spots that Nox has exposed but he's a still a very interesting guy.

[GeorgiaPeach]

What was horrific about JJ aside from his results? Serious question. His results were horrific, obviously. But what was horrific about him? Was he not striking guys out? Was he walking too many guys? What is it, Chappy?

 

I remember watching a few of his starts where his pitches were getting absolutely destroyed.

 

Pitchers who are getting killed from the pitch out of their hand like Johnson was had nothing to do with defence or any other matter it was mostly him.

[Laika]

The signal and the noise.

 

JFaS has earplugs from erudition and he'll likely be a front office analyst in a few years (if that's what he wants); the rest of you are just fans.

[GeorgiaPeach]

The signal and the noise.

 

JFaS has earplugs from erudition and he'll likely be a front office analyst in a few years (if that's what he wants); the rest of you are just fans.

 

Who isn't content being a fan?

 

As for being a FO analyst..... to me it sounds ultra cool. But on the same note, but a little OT. A nurse I work with is the sister of the Director of Amateur Scouting for the Colorado Avalanche, Rick Pracey. When I found out, I said to her something along the lines of "that's awesome" or "that would be a great job." She said, "to him not really, its just a job. It's not like after a decade plus of scouting he gets/got all giddy travelling somewhere to watch a kid over Christmas holidays, its just a job" So to me which sounds realistic.....the shine is off for him, or doesn't exist from what a fan would perceive as a super cool job.

[GD]

It probably depends on how far you make it. Being a low-level scout or data analyst for a pro sports team probably gets old pretty fast, but working you way to upper management would be a dream for a lot of people, and I don't imagine the shine would wear off a job like that.

 

That's the dream!

[Laika]

The point isn't that being a baseball data analyst is a dream job

 

The point is that JFaS will probably end up as one, because he's good at it, and most of the people disagreeing with him in this thread..... aren't.

 

If you look to your left, you can see the graveyard of baseball players that ECJF thought were good. If you look to your right, you can see dozens of posters agreeing with his opinion on player talent. Hmmm.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It probably depends on how far you make it. Being a low-level scout or data analyst for a pro sports team probably gets old pretty fast, but working you way to upper management would be a dream for a lot of people, and I don't imagine the shine would wear off a job like that.

 

For some it never wears off....like a Don Zimmer who's been involved in MLB in some capacity into his 60th year this year. Then you get someone like say an Alexandre Daigle who people & the NHL gushed over and after flaming out said he wasn't really interested in playing hockey.

 

Depends on the person, the job, their experience once immersed in the job......the whole ball of wax when thinking something is awesome.

 

I've read multiple FG execs say they have no interest in leaving their jobs to pursue jobs in a MLB FO. They're content working from home and not taking a huge pay hit.

 

Different strokes for different folks

[GD]

For some it never wears off....like a Don Zimmer who's been involved in MLB in some capacity into his 60th year this year. Then you get someone like say an Alexandre Daigle who people & the NHL gushed over and after flaming out said he wasn't really interested in playing hockey.

 

Andrew f***ing Bynum. Jesus. Used to be a dominant center, now gets his hair cut during half time.

 

There aren't words for how f***ing retarded moogy's imaginary screenplays are.

 

Oh, there are plenty, I just don't feel that someone of my age should be using such inappropriate language!

[vic city]

LOL what happened to my official JJ thread?!

[ElNik2013]

LOL what happened to my official JJ thread?!

 

 

 

Some replacement level players deserve multiple threadz.

[Orgfiller]

[GeorgiaPeach]

This is weak bro, sorry.

 

No worries dude.

 

I just think people are putting themselves in JFaS shoes and pretending to think that everyone would love this analyst job, which they may, or may not.

 

Not every dream job, turns out to be a dream job and if you think it does, then you're dreaming.

 

I believe it was BTS who said earlier, low level scouts, analysts may easily grow tired of the job. They got their break into a Front Office or being good enough to be a scout and grew tired of the job. People think....OMFG I work in a baseball Front Office doing what I want to do. But in reality there's probably a handful of other people with similar educations all doing the same thing, with similar ideas. And suddenly you realize you're not on the BlueJaysMessageBoard dominating common fans with number wizardry any more. Your're working with people who speak your own language and all of a sudden, you're not as special as you use to be.

[GeorgiaPeach]

lol......no he is not.

 

But Josh Johnson was not Josh Johnson last year.

[GeorgiaPeach]

I went to a game (thanks Leaffie) with my pops and watched him dominate, 2 hits through 7 and K'ed a shitload a 2-0 lead, the Jays won.

 

Hasn't Phil Humber pitched a perfect game?

[GeorgiaPeach]

I thought the earlier discussion was whether or not JJ pitched well in 2013.

 

And when I watch a pitcher look like he's pitching BP, he's not good. IMO defence and bad luck aren't much of a factor when balls are getting laced all over the park.

 

Over the past few years the difference between JJ's FB velocity and his change has gradually dropped from 7.5mph in 2010 to 4.3mph in 2013. His change is essentially becoming less of a change.

[Smedley Butler]

So nobody is going to touch upon the possibility that the reason his BABIP and HR/FB ratio were so putrid last season is due to all the 88mph meatballs he was serving up?

[jays4life19]

So nobody is going to touch upon the possibility that the reason his BABIP and HR/FB ratio were so putrid last season is due to all the 88mph meatballs he was serving up?

 

He touches on this argument in this article he wrote.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/community/why-the-toronto-blue-jays-need-to-extend-josh-johnson/

[Nox]

At least nobody pointed out that he was 2 and 8 last year. I guess that's progress.

[NorthOf49]

So nobody is going to touch upon the possibility that the reason his BABIP and HR/FB ratio were so putrid last season is due to all the 88mph meatballs he was serving up?

If that were true, why did he still generate a 9.1 SwStr%, and other peripherals that were in line with his career averages? Also, he averaged 92.9 mph on the fastball in 2013, which is 0.1 mph HARDER than in 2012, when he had a 3.5 win season. The talent is still there.

[GD]

At least nobody pointed out that he was 2 and 8 last year. I guess that's progress.

 

Pretty sure raysjays did but I'm going to assume you IL'd him.

[Nox]

Pretty sure raysjays did but I'm going to assume you IL'd him.

 

Ugh.

[GD]

#celebratingalimitedvocabularypartdeux

 

I worry about people who use hashtags outside of twitter.

[GD]

You should prioritize your concerns a little better.

 

My priorities are just fine, thank you.

 

1. BBDL

2. World Hunger

3. People who use hashtags are dumn

4. What am I doing with my life

5. DDML/MPL

6. That my existence is a mere irrelevant speck in a vast universe

[Abomination]

If that were true, why did he still generate a 9.1 SwStr%, and other peripherals that were in line with his career averages? Also, he averaged 92.9 mph on the fastball in 2013, which is 0.1 mph HARDER than in 2012, when he had a 3.5 win season. The talent is still there.

 

There appears to be some interesting results when you look further at his numbers within the zone last year, in particular the noticeable reduction in fastballs in the lower third and the dramatic increase in sinker/cutter usage. It seems that contributed to the higher SwStr% but also more meatballs.

[NorthOf49]

#celebratingalimitedvocabularypartdeux

#addingcompletesynapticconfusiontothemix

 

"There aren't any words for saying how embarrassed I am for him"

"What about, oh, you know ... something like 'I'm really embarrassed for him'?"

"No. Those aren't words meaning I'm really embarrassed for him. Maybe I was wrong and there are words for it ... like 'Fremdscham'."

"Oh, what's that mean?"

"It's totally German. I had to look it up and stuff. It means I'm really embarrassed for him."

"Oh, so, yeah ... I'm just going to go over here in the corner and weep for humanity for a bit, 'kay?"

"Yeah, I totally rock, dude."

Aha, I caught you! You said you don't post any pedantic drivel in actual baseball threads. This is an actual baseball thread. Please stop.

[NorthOf49]

Dude. You don't understand what "pedantic" means. I'm busting this goober's chops for attempting to attack me in a childish manner. It has nothing to do with details or formalism. It has to do with mocking the logic of a kid who used a playground putdown. Honestly. Please stop.

LOL. Only you could be so pedantic in arguing that you're not pedantic.

 

Go away.

[NorthOf49]

Regardless, most of this "BABIP deviations are luck" garbage will be eradicated and/or refined by studying "quality of contact" beyond the cursory "hit/miss" and "fly ball/line drive/ground ball" categorical inquiries.

 

Measuring and analyzing smash factor and launch angle will be integral in this. It will also likely steer away some (but not all, or even most) emphasis from the importance of the K.

Maybe, but we don't have any of that data. The data we do have suggests that Johnson's performance shouldn't be an issue going forward, and that health is his only major concern.

[NorthOf49]

And so completes your vicious circle of illogic.

 

More worrisome is that, despite you despising me, you've likely been following my posts hoping to catch me being pedantic, and you got yourself all excited to post this "burn" only to realize that you jumped the gun. Premature pedanticism is nothing to mess around with.

I've only made a couple posts regarding this matter, you can't build anything resembling a circle using just two points.

 

Also, I'm not trying to "burn" you. I'm trying to keep threads on topic.