For those who wanted a "do over" last year - you got it

[mitchf]

They have an analytics department. Somewhere in the RC someone, or a group of someones, is having good work and rational ideas ignored. Unfortunately these people probably jump ship ASAP to escape what must be an incredibly toxic environment for anyone who is smart.

I was a fan when Vinny Cerrato led Redskins and would hand out $100 million dollar contracts to players with a single year of success... Let me tell you, this is MUCH worse.

[mitchf]

To be fair, they reportedly offered $75M over 5 years to Anibal Sanchez last off season before they made the Marlins trade.

 

It seems to me "they" didn't want to have the team stink in 2013. There come times in rebuilding phases where you have to be willing to take a step back to take 2 steps forward. I happen to think that this franchise's goal is to provide watchable content for Rogers and having a 90-loss team in 2013 would've meant lower attendance and viewership.

I don't believe for a second we offered that for Anibal Sanchez.

[Chappy]

But those aging players sell tickets.

 

We're doomed.

 

Doomed might be an understatement. The only real chance this team has to keep moving forward with a glimmer of hope is if they get really lucky and 3 of Stroman, Hutch, Nolin, Drabek and Sanchez(2015?) pan out. That is probably too much to ask for.

[ElNik2013]

I don't believe for a second we offered that for Anibal Sanchez.

 

 

 

I don't necessarily believe it which is why I said 'reportedly', but I wouldn't be surprised. When you look at Beeston's 5-year contract limit and his refusal to deal with Boras = a team that's adverse to free-agency.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Doomed might be an understatement. The only real chance this team has to keep moving forward with a glimmer of hope is if they get really lucky and 3 of Stroman, Hutch, Nolin, Drabek and Sanchez(2015?) pan out. That is probably too much to ask for.

 

But you talked about selling off veteran players. Kevin believes heavily the FO takes into consideration selling tickets. The only way this FO believes selling tickets works is with name players to draw in dumb fans.

 

So either your plan is right which I hope is the path we take, or Kevin's is where the current FO wants to continue to pander to the knucklehead fan and keep a veteran team.

[ElNik2013]

It's going to be interesting to see at what point AA starts adding if/when things start looking bleak. I was shocked at how quiet he was on the trade front last season (IIRC the Bonifacio trade for a PTBNL was the biggest mid-season deal), and then the offseason has obviously been more of the same. If in mid-May the team is sitting 20-25 does he make a big splash to try and salvage the season, or admit defeat and ride it out until the deadline before selling? I think panic moves are inevitable. His career/legacy is riding on this roster, and I don't think you tear it down before making a few additions to try and right the ship.

 

 

 

I think part of why he's standing pat is that he wants to see the team healthy before making some of these crucial decisions. I also think there's a chance he's doing the franchise's bidding and taking the heat for it having been told that he won't be canned as long as the team isn't losing money.

[G-Snarls]

I don't believe the Sanchez offer.

 

I'm starting to seriously doubt it too, even though I had presumed Lott had reliable sources on the topic. It just seems so out of character in retrospect given what's happened since.

 

That said, they would have presumably had the financial flexibility to do it before the Marlins trade. So it's possible they are willing to dabble in the FA market at that price range VERY selectively. But let's face it - family businesses and rich old men seem more willing to put money on the line than this corporate owned entity.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

But those aging players sell tickets.

 

Another last-place season will put an end to that.

[ElNik2013]

I'm starting to seriously doubt it too, even though I had presumed Lott had reliable sources on the topic. It just seems so out of character in retrospect given what's happened since.

 

That said, they would have presumably had the financial flexibility to do it before the Marlins trade. So it's possible they are willing to dabble in the FA market at that price range VERY selectively. But let's face it - family businesses and rich old men seem more willing to put money on the line than this corporate owned entity.

 

 

 

I can go either way, I have my doubts, but I don't think it's far-fetched at all that they'd offer that. The team's pitching was decimated by injuries and RR's implosion to the point where only Morrow, Alvarez were left standing, I can totally see it under these circumstances.

[G-Snarls]

I can go either way, I have my doubts, but I don't think it's far-fetched at all that they'd offer that. The team's pitching was decimated by injuries and RR's implosion to the point where only Morrow, Alvarez were left standing, I can totally see it under these circumstances.

 

And DAMN but he'd look good in the rotation right now

[G-Snarls]

Which f***ing moron actually wanted a do over?

 

http://assets1.sportsnet.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/WILNER_MIKE.png

[ElNik2013]

This should be a fireable offense if true. You assemble a complete roster in the offseason, and then add to put yourself over the top. Relying in any capacity on in-season additions is a terrible way to proceed. If you're going to acquire someone like Samardzija, get him now so he can provide you with 2-3 wins instead of at the deadline when he will provide you with less than 2. This team needs help immediately, for 162 games, in areas that are easily-identifiable.

 

 

 

Not if his bosses have assured him that short of losing money, he'll be there. It seems he's acting with a certain lack of urgency that suggests this.

[ElNik2013]

And DAMN but he'd look good in the rotation right now

 

 

 

 

Not to mention the farm. Imagine Syndergaard, Stroman, Hutchison and Nolin at AAA or battling in ST for a rotation spot with Sanchez and Nicolino at AA. Not to mention possibly a top 5 pick had they stunk in 2013.

[Dick_Pole]

For all of the Jays apologists who wanted a "do over" for last season, you got it. Wilner et al say last April sunk them and the team was insanely unlucky and if you played the season over with the same roster they'd be competitive.

 

They got to .500 after the 11-game winning streak and were in the hunt. April did not sink them.

[ElNik2013]

They got to .500 after the 11-game winning streak and were in the hunt. April did not sink them.

 

 

 

Weren't they also around or slightly above in mid to late July in 2012 as well? I think at that point they were 5 games out of the 2nd WC then Bautista came back briefly only to go back on the DL for the rest of the season.

 

Anyway....

[Fearthedoc]

It's not quite the same since we had a Josh Johnson last season who was expected to give us 180-190 innings and 3-4 wins. It will be interesting to see though. I think we likely finish in the 78-82 win range.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm starting to seriously doubt it too, even though I had presumed Lott had reliable sources on the topic. It just seems so out of character in retrospect given what's happened since.

 

That said, they would have presumably had the financial flexibility to do it before the Marlins trade. So it's possible they are willing to dabble in the FA market at that price range VERY selectively. But let's face it - family businesses and rich old men seem more willing to put money on the line than this corporate owned entity.

 

You say a corporate entity as if that's some kind of advantage, just because they have access to a lot of cash. Rich old men have exactly one person to be accountable to - themselves (maybe their wives and children too). A corporate entity has thousands of shareholders that they are directly accountable to, as well as 10's of thousands of other stakeholders.

 

People need to read a Rogers quarterly financial report. I do it as part of my job. While they are adding costs to the Media division - NHL and spending on baseball players - they are crying poor ("only" 40-50% margin) on their wireless and cable divisions, both of which have seen cuts to employees in the past two years. How bad does it make Rogers look if they are firing people left right and center and adding to the Jays payroll? For now they have generally gotten away from too much scrutiny over this. But the stock price has really struggled compared to Telus, Bell and Shaw especially over the last year.

 

I'd be more than happy to see them say "f*** it" and allow for a $200M payroll to create an inefficient lower-tier playoff team. But in reality, it isn't happening. And if it did right before the next round of layoffs after another several months of the share price drifting aimlessly - wow.

[Dick_Pole]

Weren't they also around or slightly above in mid to late July in 2012 as well? I think at that point they were 5 games out of the 2nd WC then Bautista came back briefly only to go back on the DL for the rest of the season.

 

Anyway....

 

Something like that. Although they no longer have that black hole at catcher who is completely useless in every form after the all-star break dragging down the whole team's offense.

 

People blame the starting rotation and injuries in 2013. Well they recovered from that in July. Most of the terribly unlucky injuries occurred in the first half of the season. Reyes and Lawrie were back. By the time Bautista and Rasmus were out, the season was already over. Dickey and Buehrle were pretty good in the second half. Rogers was s*** but Redmond was passable in the second half as a replacement for #5. What brought them down was this one-dimensional offense led by the all-or-nothing lunatic big mouth catcher who probably had a negative impact on the thinking of the more impressionable players like Lawrie.

[G-Snarls]

You say a corporate entity as if that's some kind of advantage, just because they have access to a lot of cash. Rich old men have exactly one person to be accountable to - themselves (maybe their wives and children too). A corporate entity has thousands of shareholders that they are directly accountable to, as well as 10's of thousands of other stakeholders.

 

Not at all. I was making the same point you just did. If the Steinbrenners and Illychs of the world want to give their GM's money to overpay guys like Fielder and Tanaka that's their prerogative. As you say - they have no one else to answer to but themselves. That gives them an advantage of a sort unless they're absolutely stupid with the money (and I might suggest this is the case with Fielder). But as long as you're putting a winning team on the field and selling tickets and making TV revenue (or just blowing your life savings out of desperation to see your team win a WS) then so be it. So what if the wins are acquired inneficiently? You probably don't care all that much. You just want to keep the fanbase happy and get to take the podium with your team in late October.

[ElNik2013]

You say a corporate entity as if that's some kind of advantage, just because they have access to a lot of cash. Rich old men have exactly one person to be accountable to - themselves (maybe their wives and children too). A corporate entity has thousands of shareholders that they are directly accountable to, as well as 10's of thousands of other stakeholders.

 

People need to read a Rogers quarterly financial report. I do it as part of my job. While they are adding costs to the Media division - NHL and spending on baseball players - they are crying poor ("only" 40-50% margin) on their wireless and cable divisions, both of which have seen cuts to employees in the past two years. How bad does it make Rogers look if they are firing people left right and center and adding to the Jays payroll? For now they have generally gotten away from too much scrutiny over this. But the stock price has really struggled compared to Telus, Bell and Shaw especially over the last year.

 

I'd be more than happy to see them say "f*** it" and allow for a $200M payroll to create an inefficient lower-tier playoff team. But in reality, it isn't happening. And if it did right before the next round of layoffs after another several months of the share price drifting aimlessly - wow.

 

 

 

How many teams are owned like the Jays? I could be wrong, but most teams seem to be owned by one guy or a small group of people who are more involved with the team's direction rather than an owner like Rogers who appoints a guy like Godfrey or Beeston and lets them run the team and set policies like not dealing with Boras clients or the 5-year contract limit.

[Dick_Pole]

Not at all. I was making the same point you just did. If the Steinbrenners and Illychs of the world want to give their GM's money to overpay guys like Fielder and Tanaka that's their prerogative. As you say - they have no one else to answer to but themselves. That gives them an advantage of a sort unless they're absolutely stupid with the money (and I might suggest this is the case with Fielder). But as long as you're putting a winning team on the field and selling tickets and making TV revenue (or just blowing your life savings out of desperation to see your team win a WS) then so be it. So what if the wins are acquired inneficiently? You probably don't care all that much. You just want to keep the fanbase happy and get to take the podium with your team in late October.

 

Oh yes, completely agree. I misunderstood what you were saying at first.

[G-Snarls]

Oh yes, completely agree. I misunderstood what you were saying at first.

 

I was being too subtle perhaps

[Dick_Pole]

How many teams are owned like the Jays? I could be wrong, but most teams seem to be owned by one guy or a small group of people who are more involved with the team's direction rather than an owner like Rogers who appoints a guy like Godfrey or Beeston and lets them run the team and set policies like not dealing with Boras clients or the 5-year contract limit.

 

Have fun counting

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_professional_sports_team_owners

 

Without going through it myself I would guess out of the 4 popular North American ones - less than 10 and shrinking. Off the top of my head I remember Disney dumping the Ducks a while back which sparked the whole debate over the Mighty Ducks moniker.

[G-Snarls]

How many teams are owned like the Jays? I could be wrong, but most teams seem to be owned by one guy or a small group of people who are more involved with the team's direction rather than an owner like Rogers who appoints a guy like Godfrey or Beeston and lets them run the team and set policies like not dealing with Boras clients or the 5-year contract limit.

 

To be honest, the team felt a bit less "corporate owned" when Ted Rogers was still alive.

[Chappy]

But you talked about selling off veteran players. Kevin believes heavily the FO takes into consideration selling tickets. The only way this FO believes selling tickets works is with name players to draw in dumb fans.

 

So either your plan is right which I hope is the path we take, or Kevin's is where the current FO wants to continue to pander to the knucklehead fan and keep a veteran team.

 

It may just come down to the results this year. If this team exceeds expectations, they will ride this out, if this team crashes and burns, AA might get canned and then a rebuild looks likely.

[jays4life19]

I don't believe the Sanchez offer.

 

You're right they never officially made the offer. It's just the price they internally discussed.

 

From Shi's book...

 

"Things went well the first day, when AA and LaCava took Sanchez and his wife out to dinner, and again the following afternoon when the same foursome lunched along with the pitchers parents and grandparents. Afterward, AA spoke with Gene Mato, Sanchez agent and asked " Can we get this done early? Were going to be aggressive" The Blue Jays offered a 5 year deal out of the gate but didn't mention a dollar figure -- 75 million -- they had in mind. First, they wanted to hear what Mato was thinking and he replied by saying they were looking for an eight year commitment" ... " According to AA their final message to the Jays was " we're going to need a little time, we're going to have to talk to other teams, go through the process, get information"

 

Basically it sounds like AA targeted Sanchez. Wanted to get something done early and be aggressive to avoid a bidding war. Was prepared to offer 5 years and 75 million. AA turned his attention away when demands were an 8 year deal.

[G-Snarls]

You're right they never officially made the offer. It's just the price they internally discussed.

 

From Shi's book...

 

"Things went well the first day, when AA and LaCava took Sanchez and his wife out to dinner, and again the following afternoon when the same foursome lunched along with the pitchers parents and grandparents. Afterward, AA spoke with Gene Mato, Sanchez agent and asked " Can we get this done early? Were going to be aggressive" The Blue Jays offered a 5 year deal out of the gate but didn't mention a dollar figure -- 75 million -- they had in mind. First, they wanted to hear what Mato was thinking and he replied by saying they were looking for an eight year commitment" ... " According to AA their final message to the Jays was " we're going to need a little time, we're going to have to talk to other teams, go through the process, get information"

 

Basically it sounds like AA targeted Sanchez. Wanted to get something done early and be aggressive to avoid a bidding war. Was prepared to offer 5 years and 75 million. AA turned his attention away when demands were an 8 year deal.

 

Still sucks cause isn't 5 years 75M exactly what he got from Detroit?

[jays4life19]

Still sucks cause isn't 5 years 75M exactly what he got from Detroit?

 

Close.

 

5 years and 80 million

[GeorgiaPeach]

Not to mention the farm. Imagine Syndergaard, Stroman, Hutchison and Nolin at AAA or battling in ST for a rotation spot with Sanchez and Nicolino at AA. Not to mention possibly a top 5 pick had they stunk in 2013.

 

But the real fans wanted this major push to contend, otherwise they were leaving.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Weren't they also around or slightly above in mid to late July in 2012 as well? I think at that point they were 5 games out of the 2nd WC then Bautista came back briefly only to go back on the DL for the rest of the season.

 

Anyway....

 

And I believe at that time close to the entire rotation was on the shelf to.