Spring training thread

[saskjayfan]

See, in my opinion there's nothing Drabek could have feasibly done this spring to warrant a rotation spot. His track record suggests very strongly that he will fail, and I don't think you DFA a potentially useful arm to roll the dice on Drabek , who has options. Same deal with Romero. Nothing he does this spring should convince a good management group to cut a Redmond/Rogers, who had actual major league success last season. McGowan was always going to make the team anyway because he's out of options.

 

What did Jose Bautista's track record prior to 2009 suggest? Players can and do make meaningful adjustments, whether mental or physical. Spring training gives you opportunities to watch players. Pitchers are being watched in spring training, and in all their side sessions. Players are watched in the batting cages, on the field and in games. Evaluating guys in a short span with limited opportunities is not easy, but if you have seen meaningful adjustments from a player there's no reason not to trust your judgements and make decisions. Redmond and Rogers are middle of the road pitchers. If you feel Romero has turned the corner, you don't hold him back to protect to middle relievers. Acquiring Redmond from other teams, should a need arise, is not a costly thing. The drop of from Redmond and what you may have in the minors in not significant.

[fireballW]

See, in my opinion there's nothing Drabek could have feasibly done this spring to warrant a rotation spot. His track record suggests very strongly that he will fail, and I don't think you DFA a potentially useful arm to roll the dice on Drabek , who has options. Same deal with Romero. Nothing he does this spring should convince a good management group to cut a Redmond/Rogers, who had actual major league success last season. McGowan was always going to make the team anyway because he's out of options.

 

Rogers is horrendous. Happ isn't much better, Redmond we don't know. But none of them are good enough to deserve to have these spots. You are completely limiting your chance for getting any upside out of this rotation, when the only thing that will give us a shot is getting lucky on a couple of these guys breaking out. It's easy to say that about Drabek now that he's sucking. But after 6 walks in nearly 50IP at the end of last year, if he came out, dominated and walked only like 2 guys in 20IP, we'd all want him to get a shot including you. It isn't a coincidence that the one guy doing good this spring is the one guy whose spring training stats didn't matter. McGowan's put up a better season than Hutch. He was a lot of reporter's pick for darkhorse Cy Young candidate. Sure he never really dominated in the MLB but this is pretty much it for him unless he steps up. We've paid him a lot to be injured, if he is healthy we should get our money's worth while we can. IF he is healthy I'd definitely take him over Redmond. Of course things that you see and that happen in ST should mean something. For 93.43% of the players it doesn't but for some it certainly should. Players can and have changed a lot of an offseason.

[TheHurl]

What did Jose Bautista's track record prior to 2009 suggest?

 

Two full seasons in the majors of offensive numbers better than Brett Lawrie's last two seasons

[ElNik2013]

As far as Morrow being the 5th starter is concerned, this is just a PR move as they'd prefer Morrow to start the home opener instead of one of Happ/Rogers/Redmond.

 

This makes them look silly either way, but they'd rather look silly to the hard-core fans for seemingly overreacting to ST performance than look silly to the casual fans for having Happ/Rogers/Redmond start the home opener. This is how this organization rolls, a lot of their decisions are influenced by PR and it won't change until the owner chooses a president who will set out the correct vision for the franchise.

 

 

The thing is, this move could backfire as Morrow is working out the rust since he missed most of last season and it may take him a while to get it all back, if he's ever gonna get it back.

[saskjayfan]

What constitutes a meaningful enough adjustment to warrant giving a 25-man spot to a guy who has spent the last two years getting destroyed in AAA? I don't think there is a point where you do that, at least not until he's spent a couple of months excelling in Buffalo. It's not like the evaluators are infallible here. We have a scouting staff that didn't like Aroldis Chapman's stuff, a front office that liked Thames' and JPA's defense, and a hitting coach who thinks Goins can hit 0.300 in the majors. In no way do I trust them do DFA Redmond because they like how Romero looks in ST.

 

Ricky has not spent the last 2 years getting destroyed in AAA. He had a tough year in the mlb in 2012, but also pitched through pain and had surgery at the end of the season. Last season he came in and was struggling and they tried to completely change his mechanics which was not to his benefit. He abandoned these changes mid season and went back to his old mechanics. Last season was a write off, and partly because they tried to make him do things that did not work for him. In an effort to help him, they may have actually delayed a process of getting Ricky right. Ricky has amazing movement and solid velocity. He has to throw more strikes, but he's starting to do that. He has two more starts to show his stuff. Kasmir can do what he did and get 2 years 22 mil and Ricky has no chance....sorry I don't buy it.

[fireballW]

I'm not even sold on starting Hutchison in the rotation. The only reason I'm for it is that with likely DL stints for Happ, Perez, and Janssen retaining him on the 25-man won't cost the team a player. And unlike Drabek, he has a track record that suggests he can probably succeed. Drabek has no such track record. And I'm not even sure why McGowan keeps getting brought up. He was never going to not make the team barring a DL stint.

 

McGowan isn't going to make the team? Huwat??

 

Anyway, guess we have different opinions. I for one am glad the Jays sometimes use spring training to evaluate though. As ordinary as JA Happ was last year to start the year, it was better than watching Romero who was going to be out 5th starter.

[saskjayfan]

As far as Morrow being the 5th starter is concerned, this is just a PR move as they'd prefer Morrow to start the home opener instead of one of Happ/Rogers/Redmond.

 

This makes them look silly either way, but they'd rather look silly to the hard-core fans for seemingly overreacting to ST performance than look silly to the casual fans for having Happ/Rogers/Redmond start the home opener. This is how this organization rolls, a lot of their decisions are influenced by PR and it won't change until the owner chooses a president who will set out the correct vision for the franchise.

 

 

The thing is, this move could backfire as Morrow is working out the rust since he missed most of last season and it may take him a while to get it all back, if he's ever gonna get it back.

 

I don't get why the label of being number 1 2 3 4 or 5 matters. If you're in the rotation then you're in the rotation. Your not going to get significantly less innings if you are the 5th to start at the beginning of the season. Your place in the rotation is meaningless until you get to the playoffs. All they have to say is Morrow is getting used to his bigger body and needs a little extra time to get his command down, so we're going to give him the time in spring training and we'll treat the fans in Montreal with him starting a game, and we're going to have him start the home opener. The media makes it into a "Shocking news, Brandon Morrow now considered the number 5 starter!"

[saskjayfan]

I'm not even sold on starting Hutchison in the rotation. The only reason I'm for it is that with likely DL stints for Happ, Perez, and Janssen retaining him on the 25-man won't cost the team a player. And unlike Drabek, he has a track record that suggests he can probably succeed. Drabek has no such track record. And I'm not even sure why McGowan keeps getting brought up. He was never going to not make the team barring a DL stint.

 

Quit worrying about protecting s*** players. I'll bet you 100 bucks McGowan makes the team and is at least in the bullpen this year.

[ElNik2013]

Ricky has not spent the last 2 years getting destroyed in AAA. He had a tough year in the mlb in 2012, but also pitched through pain and had surgery at the end of the season. Last season he came in and was struggling and they tried to completely change his mechanics which was not to his benefit. He abandoned these changes mid season and went back to his old mechanics. Last season was a write off, and partly because they tried to make him do things that did not work for him. In an effort to help him, they may have actually delayed a process of getting Ricky right. Ricky has amazing movement and solid velocity. He has to throw more strikes, but he's starting to do that. He has two more starts to show his stuff. Kasmir can do what he did and get 2 years 22 mil and Ricky has no chance....sorry I don't buy it.

 

 

I'd like to think we're all hoping RR somehow gets it back and can pitch like a #4. However, he certainly needs to pitch well for a lot longer than 2 ST outings. If he could pitch well for a month or more in Buffalo, then I think he'd be making a case to be called up. I can assure you the Jays won't remove anyone from their roster to add RR based on ST performance and that performance hasn't even been all that good anyway.

[saskjayfan]

I'd like to think we're all hoping RR somehow gets it back and can pitch like a #4. However, he certainly needs to pitch well for a lot longer than 2 ST outings. If he could pitch well for a month or more in Buffalo, then I think he'd be making a case to be called up. I can assure you the Jays won't remove anyone from their roster to add RR based on ST performance and that performance hasn't even been all that good anyway.

 

That's why I said he has two starts to show his stuff. I know it hasn't been perfect, but the ball darts of our Romero's hands. He does things Rogers can't. Rogers doesn't have the movement on his pitches..he doesn't have Romero's change up. Ricky needs to tighten up his command, but if he goes into Detroit and pitches strong and follows that up with another decent performance I disagree about Romero. I think they will roll the dice and bring him North.

[ElNik2013]

That's why I said he has two starts to show his stuff. I know it hasn't been perfect, but the ball darts of our Romero's hands. He does things Rogers can't. Rogers doesn't have the movement on his pitches..he doesn't have Romero's change up. Ricky needs to tighten up his command, but if he goes into Detroit and pitches strong and follows that up with another decent performance I disagree about Romero. I think they will roll the dice and bring him North.

 

 

 

I wouldn't put it past the Jays to bring him north, but it would be the wrong thing to do. The right thing to do is to let him show the apparent improvement over a longer period of time in AAA in competitive games. They'd also have to risk losing one or 2 of Jeffress, Rogers, Redmond, McGowan, depending on whether they go with a 7 or 8-man BP, I don't see that.

[ElNik2013]

Usually in that case teams explicitly state that they're moving a guy back a few slots because they want him to start the home opener. It would be backwards to do that and publicly blame a bad spring.

 

 

 

Well, backwards and the Jays don't exactly dislike each other. The report is coming from Blair, so this could all be made up to begin with. It could very well be that they want Morrow to get a bit of extra work in ST given that he missed most of last season. I do think having him pitch the HO over the 5th starter is actually a thing they'd do. Who knows, maybe they even want Dickey to pitch between their 2 hardest throwers. I do think PR plays a big role on their decision-making, but who knows.

[KingKat]

McGowan isn't going to make the team? Huwat??

 

 

You missed the double negative. "NEVER NOT going to make the team." i.e. "He was going to make the team."

[bzapple]

What did Jose Bautista's track record prior to 2009 suggest?

 

Kasmir can do what he did and get 2 years 22 mil and Ricky has no chance....sorry I don't buy it.

 

Please stop using these examples, they are extremely rare exceptions. You can't possibly think the front office should make roster decisions while only considering the best possible outcome. That would be as dumb as valuing a couple spring training outings more than the last two full seasons.

[fireballW]

Please stop using these examples, they are extremely rare exceptions. You can't possibly think the front office should make roster decisions while only considering the best possible outcome. That would be as dumb as valuing a couple spring training outings more than the last two full seasons.

 

Umm of course not make the decision on the best possible outcome. YOU need to get your head out of the sand because that is not what people are saying. It's a year where we need better pitching than Rogers and Redmond could offer. The other guys at least have a CHANCE of that. If the organization sees a big change in Romero's stuff and if he looks good there is no reason to not start him instead of ESMIL ROGERS! At least give ourselves a chance to make the playoffs.

 

A lot changes after a couple months. There are enough stories of people coming back after a winter* off and being very different ballplayers. Deciding before camp even starts to not even pay any attention to what happens in camp with some of your higher upside starters is ridiculous.

[saskjayfan]

Please stop using these examples, they are extremely rare exceptions. You can't possibly think the front office should make roster decisions while only considering the best possible outcome. That would be as dumb as valuing a couple spring training outings more than the last two full seasons.

 

fine, bartolo colon, Edwin Encrancion, adam lind, john lackey. There are more examples than you would think and it comes down to whether or not you have talent. I don't have Ricky in my rotation right now. I have him with the opportunity to make the rotation if he pitches well his next two times out. If he pitches 5 plus innings in the next two starts with positive results he's in. If he blows up he's in AAA to further his progress.

[saskjayfan]

Lol, not one of these players ever came close to the depths that Romero has sunk to over the last two years. It's like you have no idea how bad he's been since 2011.

 

yeah lackey's 6.41 ERA in 2011 was delicious and he didn't pitch in 2012r.

 

Ricky had one bad year in the majors and he had health issues. Last year the organization tried to completely reinvent him altering his mechanics. Did you ever consider his results would have been better had they not gone this route? Are you only capable of looking at statistics or can you have any depth of thought to think beyond the numbers.

[bzapple]

It's a year where we need better pitching than Rogers and Redmond could offer. The other guys at least have a CHANCE of that. If the organization sees a big change in Romero's stuff and if he looks good there is no reason to not start him instead of ESMIL ROGERS!

 

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Sure there's a slim chance of Romero regaining his form and helping the team, but there's a much larger chance of him continuing to be awful, where starting him would just be throwing away games. If Romero has made real improvements then let's see him get some good results at Buffalo for a while. Rogers and Redmond aren't ideal but they are the better options for now. If the team wanted better pitchers than those guys they should have gone out and got some rather than grasping at straws like Romero and Drabek.

[bzapple]

yeah lackey's 6.41 ERA in 2011 was delicious and he didn't pitch in 2012r.

 

Ricky had one bad year in the majors and he had health issues. Last year the organization tried to completely reinvent him altering his mechanics. Did you ever consider his results would have been better had they not gone this route? Are you only capable of looking at statistics or can you have any depth of thought to think beyond the numbers.

 

"La la la the team messed with his mechanics but everything's fine now la la la"

 

You can't just gloss over the fact that he couldn't even be a serviceable starter in Triple-A last year.

[fireballW]

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Sure there's a slim chance of Romero regaining his form and helping the team, but there's a much larger chance of him continuing to be awful, where starting him would just be throwing away games. If Romero has made real improvements then let's see him get some good results at Buffalo for a while. Rogers and Redmond aren't ideal but they are the better options for now. If the team wanted better pitchers than those guys they should have gone out and got some rather than grasping at straws like Romero and Drabek.

 

This is really nonsense. If his stuff is back and his control is back then there would be no real reason to think he wouldn't be okay. AA said specifically that it seemed like something clicked and that he was interested to see his next start. You guys act like it is impossible to see any improvements in ST. You can tell when people's stuff (not results) looks better, just like you can tell when CC loses velocity off his fastball.

 

Last year RR came to camp basically guaranteed a spot. They saw he looked terrible and made the smart decision based on what they saw that he shouldn't make the team. There is zero reason that the opposite couldn't happen. A healthy RR is not an ace, we all know that, but he's better than Redmond or Rogers. It is just a typical, Toronto fan negative attitude to assume that players can just "lose it" all of a sudden but could never be able to "find it" again.

 

Just saying Rogers and Redmond are a better fit for the team and ignoring that the team has a ton of coaches and scouts watching these players for a MONTH and a HALF before the season starts is crazy.

[fireballW]

I will bow out of the ST is useful / useless in evaluating players for the upcoming season argument now. Don't think we'll get anywhere and I've said my bits and understand your points even if I disagree.

[Boxcar]

Lol, not one of these players ever came close to the depths that Romero has sunk to over the last two years. It's like you have no idea how bad he's been since 2011.

 

Does that surprise you?

[fireballW]

Sure you can make some decisions in ST, but in order for that to happen, he'd have to be pitching like Hutchison.

 

I did not begin this to debate RR deserves a spot in the rotation.

 

"What players on this team, in your opinion, should have their status dictated by how they look in spring? The only guy I can think of is Hutchison, who is coming off of surgery and has options. Every other roster position should be decided by past results and options."

 

This is what I took issue with. The last two spots in our rotation should have been wide open between Rogers, Redmond, Hutch, Drabek, Romero, McGowan, Happ and to a lesser extent, Nolin. ST is a month and a half of coaches working with the players and watching them in games. Gifting spots to Remond or Rogers would be completely bonkers.

 

**and Stroman ^^

[Jimcanuck]

Pitching in spring training would be like pitching AAA or AA games, depending on the calibre of the lineup the other team puts out there? if that is the case, ST results are useful to evaluate pitchers.

 

At the moment, there is reason for cautious optimism about RR. But he needs to be a bit better than he has been so far, and some other guys need to suck, to be with the big club opening day.

[Atothe]

Lackey tried to pitch through an elbow injury and sucked. He then underwent a procedure which has a good rate of success in terms of putting pitchers back out there near their old/better form after 1.5 years or so (they're usually still getting their feet under them after returning in a year's time). Prior to his injury issues, he was a quality pitcher with quality control.

 

Ricky is a guy who has always struggled with his control. It stalled him in the minors for awhile. In his "breakthrough year" he was actually sent to minor league camp because he was pitching poorly, they worked on something with him down there and it took, and he was able to break camp with the big club. And he was always living on the edge of having enough command to be successful. Then he fell apart. Knee issues that were never resolved. It's hard being repeatable when your knees are wonky. They were allegedly working on his delivery last year ... but there was no visible change. And similar results (just not as bad ... but similar issues). Not sure what you're talking about regarding the results being better if they hadn't gone that route. By the end of 2012, he was a total and utter mess. He should have been in the independent leagues. What makes you think, if they didn't revise his motion (and I actually don't think they did, meaningfully), that somehow he would have recovered better than he did last year? They claim they were trying to get him back to the motion he had when he was successful. Do you not believe this? If you buy into the assertion that they meaningfully changed his motion, you have to believe either that they didn't know what his motion was when he was successful, or that somehow he would have been more successful with the motion he used when he was unsuccessful than the one he used when he was successful ... or perhaps he just couldn't get back to form. Which one of those is your stance?

 

Its all in Rickey's mind and what a fragile mind it is

[saskjayfan]

Lackey tried to pitch through an elbow injury and sucked. He then underwent a procedure which has a good rate of success in terms of putting pitchers back out there near their old/better form after 1.5 years or so (they're usually still getting their feet under them after returning in a year's time). Prior to his injury issues, he was a quality pitcher with quality control.

 

Ricky is a guy who has always struggled with his control. It stalled him in the minors for awhile. In his "breakthrough year" he was actually sent to minor league camp because he was pitching poorly, they worked on something with him down there and it took, and he was able to break camp with the big club. And he was always living on the edge of having enough command to be successful. Then he fell apart. Knee issues that were never resolved. It's hard being repeatable when your knees are wonky. They were allegedly working on his delivery last year ... but there was no visible change. And similar results (just not as bad ... but similar issues). Not sure what you're talking about regarding the results being better if they hadn't gone that route. By the end of 2012, he was a total and utter mess. He should have been in the independent leagues. What makes you think, if they didn't revise his motion (and I actually don't think they did, meaningfully), that somehow he would have recovered better than he did last year? They claim they were trying to get him back to the motion he had when he was successful. Do you not believe this? If you buy into the assertion that they meaningfully changed his motion, you have to believe either that they didn't know what his motion was when he was successful, or that somehow he would have been more successful with the motion he used when he was unsuccessful than the one he used when he was successful ... or perhaps he just couldn't get back to form. Which one of those is your stance?

 

They didn't claim they were trying to get him back to the motion when he was successful. They tried to completely change his motion. It's like a golfer with a flat swing plane and completely changing the steepness of the swing plane and trying to get him to a much higher point at the top of his back swing. They were making dramatic changes, not working within the framework of what he did working on his timing, balance, or changing his arm slot slightly....they made big changes. Romero also had elbow surgery following the 2012 season as well as having bad knees. They didn't think this was totally to blame for his woes....they tried to rebuild him. It didn't work. He's reverted back to what he did in 2010 to 2012 when he was both successful and unsuccessful. He's working on his timing and motion. Gibby mentioned his windup was slow and not fluid...you can't be thinking mechanics when you are delivering the pitch...you just have to let it go. Ricky's overthinking things. He has to get his mind right.

 

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130327&content_id=43382674&vkey=news_mlb&c_id=mlb

 

For all my posts, I'm not suggesting he's back at all. I'm seeing signs of hope that he may be turning the corner and that he could get back to being a good enough pitcher to add value to the team. Time will tell. I am looking forward to his start on Tuesday. I am cheering for him. He may do terrible, great or somewhere in between.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Has anything interesting happened this spring?

 

I haven't paid attention at all.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

- Goins has been abysmal.

- Neither Pillar or Gose is likely to make the team, so Melky will be the backup CF.

- Hutchison has stolen a rotation spot.

- Morrow is apparently on thin ice after a poor spring, and will be the team's 5th starter.

 

Sounds about right.

[saskjayfan]

- Goins has been abysmal.

- Neither Pillar or Gose is likely to make the team, so Melky will be the backup CF.

- Hutchison has stolen a rotation spot.

- Morrow is apparently on thin ice after a poor spring, and will be the team's 5th starter.

 

bad...morrow struggling with his command. Rogers, happ, drabek and Redmond not stepping up. Goins not really inspiring confidence with the bat. Janssen hurt.

 

Good...hutch looking like could provide a huge boost. Dickey looking very good. Melky looking like a huge boost. Lawrie showing well. Bats, EE and Lind looking like solid guys to repeat. Romero showing a pulse.

[Convo]

Has anything interesting happened this spring?

 

I haven't paid attention at all.

 

No.