3rd Annual - Predict Hech Slash Line

[baseballsss]

262/310/350

[Grant77]

Who would you rather have manning the SS, Goins or Hechavarria?

 

Hech every day and twice on sundays, that's not even a question.

[Olerud363]

Hech every day and twice on sundays, that's not even a question.

 

What the heck is wrong with you??

 

Player A: 189 mlb games .232 .269 ..311, -2.1 WAR - .273 .315 .382 minors with the "Vegas" boost.

Player B: 34 mlb games .252 .264 .345 1.4 WAR - - .273 .330 .372 minors NO "Vegas" boost.

 

It's not your opinion that I find objectional. It's the "not even a question" part. That us, the common people, can't look at the stats and question what they mean. That we need a great mind like yours to be the "decider" and tell us what to think. That your personal observations out-trump the stats by so much that we can't question your conclusion.

 

Hech might well be better. But he's not "not even a question" better.

[Olerud363]

Hech every day and twice on sundays, that's not even a question.

FYI Hech prediction for contest. .255 .288 .355 -0.2 War (defense sucks)

 

Given same playing time at short Goins : .260 .305 .344 1.6 war

[gruber92]

Thanks for the laugh.

 

We'll just have to wait and see. Goins will amount to a better offensive MLB player than Hech , twice on Sundays.

[gruber92]

Hech 2014 prediction.

 

.221 / .272 / .317 .. .589 OPS

[gruber92]

Defensively at SS its a tough call,but i'd probably go with Hech. The difference is nowhere near enough to justify Hech starting at SS over Goins though.

[Olerud363]

Thanks for the laugh.

 

Hey, it's an optimistic projection.

 

Steamer has Hech at -0.1, Oliver at 1.7 and fans at 0.8

Steamer has Goins at 0.0, Oliver at 0.7 and fans at 0.8

 

From what I hear Goins is a good defensive short stop as well. So he could possibly be more valuable at short.

 

The major projection systems are not seeing much difference between Goins and Hech. I am more optimistic on Goins. Better MILB numbers (when you considered Goins aaa is at Buffalo, and Hech's is at Vegas)

 

My projection is positive, but not wildly positive.

 

Excuse me for using Buffalo and Vegas park factors when making a prediction.

[GD]

Player A: 189 mlb games .232 .269 ..311, -2.1 WAR - .273 .315 .382 minors with the "Vegas" boost.

Player B: 34 mlb games .252 .264 .345 1.4 WAR - - .273 .330 .372 minors NO "Vegas" boost.

 

Oh stop it with the Vegas boost. wRC+ is a thing. And Hech posted a 146 wRC+ and then a 106 wRC+ in AAA over like 600 PA. Goins had a 90 wRC+ in AAA.

 

Hey, it's an optimistic projection.

 

Steamer has Hech at -0.1, Oliver at 1.7 and fans at 0.8

Steamer has Goins at 0.0, Oliver at 0.7 and fans at 0.8

 

If this is you trying to use Oliver as justification... lol.

 

From what I hear Goins is a good defensive short stop as well.

 

Radio scouting ftw.

 

The major projection systems are not seeing much difference between Goins and Hech.

 

Oh, only a 4% offensive difference and heavily regressed fielding for Goins, which, if Hech corrected his positioning, would make Hech better defensively AND offensively at a more important position.

 

Better MILB numbers (when you considered Goins aaa is at Buffalo, and Hech's is at Vegas)

 

No. wRC+.

 

My projection is positive, but not wildly positive.

 

Um, no, it's pretty f***ing wildly positive.

 

Excuse me for using Buffalo and Vegas park factors when making a prediction.

 

LOLk

[Olerud363]

wRC+ is a thing. And Hech posted a 146 wRC+ and then a 106 wRC+ in AAA over like 600 PA. Goins had a 90 wRC+ in AAA.

 

No. wRC+.

 

I did not say better aaa numbers. I said better milb numbers. Goins milb numbers are a bit better over a period of years. Hech's "good" season appears very good because of Vegas. But looking at their entire minor league record Goins is probably a tad better, it's close. Hech's 146 was sss and followed a larger sample size 67 wRC+ in New Hamphire.

 

So for context (you're becoming quite the cherry picker, like Grant77) the 146 wRC+ you post was 2012

 

Hech - 2012

 

aa 500 plate appearances - 67 wRC+

aaa 100 plate appearances - 146 wRC+

 

Hech posted about a 67 wRC+ at double a, Goins 105. Hech posted a 42 wRC+ at Dunnedin, Goins 109. They've both had ups and downs.

 

I brought up the park factors, not because it makes Goins aaa numbers better, but because it does move them closer, and taking that with Goins better performance in dunnedin and new hamphsire gives him a bit better overall minor league record.

 

And any way what the f*** is your problem?? I didn't even f***ing say Goins was better. I said "Hech might be better, but he's not "not even a question" better.

[jb22]

.256/.311/.355 - 666 ops

[Olerud363]

Look what I started!

 

A lot of passion for two mediocre players. Theire numbers are actually quite similiar.

 

Personally I have no idea how they will turn out. I've never seen either play. I'm no scout anyway.

 

I predicted Ryan Goins could put up 1.6 WAR based mostly on defense and a .305 on base percentage.

 

By the reaction I'm getting you'd think I predicted he'd win the batting title.

 

It's insane that these morons think they can predict stats within 20 points of on base percentage. Goins is predicted to put up a .280 obp, but maybe he'll scrape out a low .300. Nobody f***ing knows.

 

But a couple of f***ing bad apples think they are Nostradumus and can predict things things with exact precision... and that poor kid GordieDougie is soaking it all up.

[GD]

And any way what the f*** is your problem?? I didn't even f***ing say Goins was better. I said "Hech might be better, but he's not "not even a question" better.

 

You pretend like you're a savant of park factors and ******** when you say that Hech's good season appears very good because of Vegas despite a wRC+ of 146. Do you know what wRC+ is, Olerud? Call it SSS. I agree. Say he had an inflated BABIP. I agree. But because of Vegas? You're just wrong.

 

I didn't argue either way. The only thing resembling an argument was...

 

Oh, only a 4% offensive difference and heavily regressed fielding for Goins, which, if Hech corrected his positioning, would make Hech better defensively AND offensively at a more important position

 

That, which is talking about Steamer projections.

 

You seem to think I'm arguing one side or another. No, I'm not. I don't care about Hech's sample size at AAA or skill at AAA versus Goins' or at AA or so on. I care that you're belittling Hech at AAA for the reason that you are. Because it was in Vegas. Even though, after adjusting for run environment, Hech had a phenomenal small sample size of PA, you say it's because of Vegas. That's what I'm bitching about Olerud, I'm not predicting anything, I'm not arguing one side or another, I'm just bitching about your faux knowledge of run environment. I'm also arguing that your 1.6 WAR projection for Goins is wildly optimistic. This argument has been rehashed so many times that I'm not even going to bother. Not even a week ago, I posted the ridiculous improvements Goins would have to make just to reach 1.5 fWAR. I may post that again with better math, but that's not my main point.

 

But a couple of f***ing bad apples think they are Nostradumus and can predict things things with exact precision... and that poor kid GordieDougie is soaking it all up.

 

Not what I'm bitching about, but good effort; way to read. Gold f***ing star.

[Orgfiller]

Pulling these right out of my arse:

 

.228/.286/.326

 

In the unlikely scenario that I win, please donate the money to the forum.

[Olerud363]

Hech hit .389 .431 .537 in his short sample season of aaa in Vegas for a 147 wRC+. Josh Thole had a 150 wRC+ at .320 .383 .500.

Heck hit .312 .363 .424 in his much larger sample 106 season. Couldn't really find a 106 wRC+ player in 2013 Buffallo. But in 2012 Josh Rodriguez was .265 .327 .420 at 108wRC+.

 

If Hech was in buffalo his line would look much less impressive. I am not belittling him. I am comparing him to Ryan Goins and concluding the sum of their minor league work is very close in value.

 

If Hech was not in Vegas his SSS 2011 would read .320 .370 .480 or there-abouts.

His 2012 would read .270 .330 .400 or so.

[GD]

If Hech was in buffalo his line would look much less impressive.

 

It would /look/ less impressive but it would provide the same value relative to his run environment. A .320/.370/.480 in one run environment can be equivalent in value to a .389/whatever. It's like how 25 homers in Citi and 35 homers in Chase can be similar value.

[Olerud363]

It would /look/ less impressive but it would provide the same value relative to his run environment. A .320/.370/.480 in one run environment can be equivalent in value to a .389/whatever. It's like how 25 homers in Citi and 35 homers in Chase can be similar value.

 

I don't disagree with you. In fact that's all I'm saying. Hech's milb line is boosted by Vegas. His .380 would be a .320 in a different park. The .320 a .275.

 

Anyway we have two mediocre players. Minor league numbers very similiar. Who the f*** knows what they'll hit, I don't. Other than it will be mediocre... .220 .250 .300 horrible?? Or .260 .300 .350 just sort of bad??

 

My only gripe is with people who think that one is better than the other clearly beyond any reasonable doubt. And then with people who are acting like my optimistic Goins prediction is crazy.

 

Could either of Hech and Goins just scrape over a .300 obp?? Could either of them squeak out a WAR or two based mostly on defense?? Christ. Of course they could.

 

I am not predicting MVPs here. People are acting like I'm predicting Goins to be the next Barry Larkin.

[GD]

I don't disagree with you. In fact that's all I'm saying. Hech's milb line is boosted by Vegas. His .380 would be a .320 in a different park. The .320 a .275.

 

Okay, I know what will finish this. You're saying that it looks better, but isn't actually better, right?

 

And I think your Goins projection is too high but that's a matter I've already argued at length. Hech is probably better, but yes, it's close.

[Olerud363]

Okay, I know what will finish this. You're saying that it looks better, but isn't actually better, right?

 

And I think your Goins projection is too high but that's a matter I've already argued at length. Hech is probably better, but yes, it's close.

 

Yes the Goins prediction is high. It looks like the average of the prediction systems have him at roughly .230 .270. So I've basically got him at 30 points extra batting average.

 

If it goes the other way he is at .200 .240. Just as likely to happen I guess.

 

If the Jays are seriously thinking of playing Ryan Goins their projection has to be close to mine. They have to think he can hit just a little, and play some D. So perhaps I am thinking right along side with the great minds in the organization.

[LunchBox]

When Goins and Hech post two of the five worst OPSs in 2014, at least GordieDougie and Olerud can say they successfully debated which turd is the smelliest.

[GD]

When Goins and Hech post two of the five worst OPSs in 2014, at least GordieDougie and Olerud can say they successfully debated which turd is the smelliest.

 

-grumbles- this isn't the point i was making -grumbles-

[tercet]

gd some of you are super delusional thinking he will ops over 650 lol

[Nox]

Side action:

 

Hech's ISO * 1000 (-105)

vs

Tercet's opening day weight (-105)

[jayswin11]

.233/.302/.404

[tercet]

242/271/311

[tercet]

If BTS are NJH are willing Ill do a large bet that Goins will out OPS Hech w/ some sort of insurance incase either get sent down.

[TheHurl]

If BTS are NJH are willing Ill do a large bet that Goins will out OPS Hech w/ some sort of insurance incase either get sent down.

 

.786 for Hech vs. .378 for Goins. What was the bet for Hech doubling him up through three weeks?

[Caper]

.786 for Hech vs. .378 for Goins. What was the bet for Hech doubling him up through three weeks?

 

 

Jesus... Henderson Alverez with a complete game 2 hitter. He'll have a nice little career.

[Caper]

Hech is going to be a very talented short stop. Man I wish we still had him.

[8D]

alvarez looking like he'll out pitch dickey this season and beyond. ouch