Baseball Prospectus: Top-101 prospects

[Dr. Dinger]

He was terriable at third. He improved. He's now in Edwin Encarnacion territory. He's still bad, but just less bad then before.

 

Also, K'ing at 28% is definitely a concern, regardless of age. I do think Sano is too low, but it may be justifiable if you knew for certain that he's about to lose a year of development to TJS. I'm sure Parks will address it in the chat today.

[Grant77]

He was terriable at third. He improved. He's now in Edwin Encarnacion territory. He's still bad, but just less bad then before.

 

His arm has never been a problem, even at shortstop. That's a lazy comparison. He's got soft hands and a strong arm, that's all Troy Glaus ever needed. It's not necessary for him to be a gold glover with 80 grade raw power.

[Grant77]

I fail to see why this list shouldn't be open to well thought out criticism. I provided my scouting reports based on firsthand observation and the reports of others.

 

I'm quite certain that Sano will be higher and Stroman will be lower on BA's list. They have had similar comments to mine throughout the year.

[Grant77]

I do like the rankings for Lindor and Hedges, Mayo basically ignored their defensive contributions, as was mentioned.

[KingKat]

Sano has the best power stroke in the minor leagues, once in a decade type stuff.

 

This prompted me to compare Sano's stats to Mike Stanton's. Eerily similar numbers from the two hitters. Makes me worried that Sano may be legit.

[Olerud363]

Sano has the best power stroke in the minor leagues, once in a decade type stuff. He's improved enough to erase any questions about him remaining at third. He walks a ton and for starting at AA at age 20, the K's really aren't that concerning. I know there's an injury concern, but he's 3-4 years ahead of the normal development curve. Not to overstate things, but we're talking a guy who could legitimately put up Eddie Mathews type numbers and he's behind a guy who a lot of scouts think will end up as a reliever (Ventura). That's absurd.

 

2 years ago I would of agreed with you. In the last couple of years the Hurl and others have posted that high strikeout prospects are a big risk. Wood, Travis Snider, come to mind.

 

I think there are some studies about this. But to be honest I am just parroting what others on the board are saying. However I am assuming that those who are evaluating Sano are taking the strikeout issue into account and are aware of the data on this.

[Olerud363]

This prompted me to compare Sano's stats to Mike Stanton's. Eerily similar numbers from the two hitters. Makes me worried that Sano may be legit.

 

There numbers really look close. Stanton K'd a tremendous amount in the minors. That would be the issue with Sano. Sky high k-rate as a minor leaguer is a big negative. Stanton worked out. Snider not so much.

 

But Stanton and Sano hit way more homers then Snider as a minor leaguer.

[The Cats Ass]

His arm has never been a problem, even at shortstop. That's a lazy comparison. He's got soft hands and a strong arm, that's all Troy Glaus ever needed. It's not necessary for him to be a gold glover with 80 grade raw power.

 

They're both from the DR, it's a perfect comparison!

[Grant77]

I'm certainly not ignoring the strikeouts if that's what you think. There are 2 points to remember, however.

 

1. He's 20 years old in AA and is a very patient and selective hitter. I don't see a sub 20 K% or anything, but he has plenty of time to work on his approach.

 

2. Sano is the rare player that can hit .250 and win an MVP, his power stroke is that impressive.

[TwistedLogic]

So since several people have asked this already, and have yet to receive clarification, Parks list is bad because it's not a fantasy power ranking?

[KingKat]

There numbers really look close. Stanton K'd a tremendous amount in the minors. That would be the issue with Sano. Sky high k-rate as a minor leaguer is a big negative. Stanton worked out. Snider not so much.

 

But Stanton and Sano hit way more homers then Snider as a minor leaguer.

 

The funny thing is that Mike Stanton is one prospect that I really badly underrated when he was a prospect and I was well on my way to doing the same with Sano. It would be foolish to just assume that Sano will be Stanton but I guess it's equally foolish to just ignore that kind of raw power. There's massive upside in power like that.

[jays_fever]

DJ Peterson is really high, that's one thing I noticed right away

[Grant77]

So since several people have asked this already, and have yet to receive clarification, Parks list is bad because it's not a fantasy power ranking?

 

There are at least a few people, including myself, that are in favour of the high rankings for players with strong defense. It shouldn't have anything to do with fantasy.

[G-Snarls]

RELEASE THE STROMAN

 

cap filler, bitches

[Boxcar]

It's a better list than MLB.com but there are still some things I disagree with. Why does Joey Gallo keep making top 100 lists? Sano seems low, and I still don't understand why Tallion>Stephenson. No Winker and I really don't understand how Frazier is a top 40 guy while Meadows is in the 80s. I can appreciate a list where defense is highly valued because it's safer to bank on but it seems a bit too heavy in that regard.

[Dr. Dinger]

On Sano:

 

"Sano is going to struggle (as he did) against better arms. His hit tool will be enough for the power to play, but I'm not sold that his power will play to full potential. He could still end up hitting 30+ bombs, but the power will likely come at the expense of consistent contact. He's still in the top 20 prospects in the game (in an absolutely loaded class), and even though he has weaknesses in his game, the power is so good that it justifies such a high rank. I can't see ranking him in the top 5, though. Too many questions about the hit tool and defensive profile to go that crazy."

[The Cats Ass]

It's a better list than MLB.com but there are still some things I disagree with. Why does Joey Gallo keep making top 100 lists? Sano seems low, and I still don't understand why Tallion>Stephenson. No Winker and I really don't understand how Frazier is a top 40 guy while Meadows is in the 80s. I can appreciate a list where defense is highly valued because it's safer to bank on but it seems a bit too heavy in that regard.

 

Because he hit 40 homeruns in A-Ball as a 19 year old. He's also more likely to stick at 3B then Sano. He's also on the lists to make me feel better about drafting him.

 

Fun stats: Once Gallo returned from his injury he hit 12HR with 6SB in 23 Games. With a slash line of .321/.421/.877 for a 1.298 OPS. Translates to 85HR and 43SB over 162 games. He also cut down on his SO over that time too.

[Olerud363]

I strongly disagree with this.

 

This is classic Grant.

 

He is simply the greatest data cherry picker of all time. He seems to have taken a break from posting for a while, took him a while to show his face on the new board, but he is here in all his glory.

 

So his analysis is that "no pitcher as short or shorter then Stroman" has had much success. That's complete bull s***. Many ways to do it, but his approach excludes Pedro and Lincecum (both 5'11"). So he conveniently throws away two of the best examples of short successful pitchers.

 

If you just looked at pitchers < 6 feet it would be a fairer way of doing it. By it doing it Grant's way Stroman is the tallest of his group. So yeah we compare stroman to 5'7 guys and other midgets but exclude Pedro and Lincecum.

[Angrioter]

I've made my thoughts clear on Stroman. Numerous small starters have come and gone in the top 50 of prospect lists and Tom Phoebus and Tom Gordon remain the only ones as small as Stroman to have any success. I think big league hitters will be about to square up his stuff and hit for power, especially after a turn or two through the batting order. He needs to develop more downward movement and improve his command or else he remains in the 50-60 range on my list.

 

I strongly disagree with this.

 

This is classic Grant.

 

He is simply the greatest data cherry picker of all time. He seems to have taken a break from posting for a while, took him a while to show his face on the new board, but he is here in all his glory.

 

So his analysis is that "no pitcher as short or shorter then Stroman" has had much success. That's complete bull s***. Many ways to do it, but his approach excludes Pedro and Lincecum (both 5'11"). So he conveniently throws away two of the best examples of short successful pitchers.

 

If you just looked at pitchers < 6 feet it would be a fairer way of doing it. By it doing it Grant's way Stroman is the tallest of his group. So yeah we compare stroman to 5'7 guys and other midgets but exclude Pedro and Lincecum.

 

 

Whitey Ford, Valenzuela, Gordon, Pedro, The freak, Billy the kid, Cueto, Colon................... Tim Collins?

[The Cats Ass]

Whitey Ford, Valenzuela, Gordon, Pedro, The freak, Billy the kid, Cueto, Colon................... Tim Collins?

 

All signs point to Pedro 2.0

[Abomination]

I wonder how long it'll take before one of his teammates gives Stroman some kind of "platform cleats" for his birthday?

[Angrioter]

All signs point to Pedro 2.0

 

Johnny Cueto is a better comp

[Grant77]

When I talk about players of Stroman's size, I do NOT include taller players like Lincecum and Pedro. You all know this, you just don't have a good counter to my argument that over 100+ years of baseball, Tom Phoebus is the only starter that short to have any kind of success, and it wasn't that much.

[Muck Bartinez]

Johnny Cueto is a better comp

 

I'd be very happy if Stroman became a healthier version of post 2010 Cueto. Not sure if their arsenal matches up or not, as I'd expect Stroman to miss more bats, but if he could average somewhere around a 3.50 FIP/xFIP over 30 starts, that would be awesome.

[Abomination]

Whitey Ford, Valenzuela, Gordon, Pedro, The freak, Billy the kid, Cueto, Colon................... Tim Collins?

 

Is "Billy the Kid" Shantz? If so, could certainly take a season from Stroman like his age 26 season

 

Never mind, of course it's Wagner (brain cramp for a minute there). Anyhow, take a look at Bobby Shantz. Started games during the first half of his career.

[Angrioter]

When I talk about players of Stroman's size, I do NOT include taller players like Lincecum and Pedro. You all know this, you just don't have a good counter to my argument that over 100+ years of baseball, Tom Phoebus is the only starter that short to have any kind of success, and it wasn't that much.

 

We're talking about 1 or 2 inches of different. Pedro and Cuerto are 5'9" or 5'10" for sure. Johnny Cueto, el jucho, is smaller than me (I'm 5'91/2")

[connorp]

If you just looked at pitchers < 6 feet it would be a fairer way of doing it.

 

Why. because you say so? Maybe it's nor fair to loop him in with guys that are shorter than him (well, maybe a little as a few have questioned if he's even 5'9) but I don't see why its obvious to arbitrarily add 2-3" to the sample size. If a guy that height has never had success in the majors as a SP, its definitely something you cant ignore. You should debunk in other ways like what makes him diff than the guys that were his height. The line can be so thin in professional sports from guys that make it and guys that don't.. the league is different than say 20 years ago in that throwing 90+mph doesn't give you the same odds of making the majors and having an impact.

 

I'm not claiming to be educated enough to have an opinion.. but if you tell me there's been maybe 1 SP in the last 100 years that had success at 5'9 or below.. cant see how you can ignore that sample size. If you want to say under 6'0 why not just expand the sample even more and say under 6'2

[connorp]

We're talking about 1 or 2 inches of different. Pedro and Cuerto are 5'9" or 5'10" for sure. Johnny Cueto, el jucho, is smaller than me (I'm 5'91/2")

 

yeah but some are saying Stroman may be 5'7-5'8 if those guys are 5'9 or 5'10.. don't get me wrong though, I'm going to root for his success.. I still would move him if I could for a guy like Howie Kendrick and feel safer

[Angrioter]

yeah but some are saying Stroman may be 5'7-5'8 if those guys are 5'9 or 5'10.. don't get me wrong though, I'm going to root for his success.. I still would move him if I could for a guy like Howie Kendrick and feel safer

 

No way.

Sell high; maybe top-30 MiLB guy (arm)

[connorp]

No way.

Sell high; maybe top-30 MiLB guy (arm)

 

Maybe I overrate HK. I've always liked him. Was pleased to get him pretty late in last year's L3 draft.. I think he has 4 WAR upside, especially at the RC.. but that's me..

 

but if I could get 6-7 WAR over the next 2 years for Stroman while the Jays have some kind of core that doesn't have AARP cards, I would do it