Baseball Prospectus: Top-101 prospects

[KingKat]

Here's the thing I wonder with Stroman... Is there much of a precedent of pitchers of his height acomplishing what he has accomplished so far in college and in the prose? Is there much of a history of guys with his success and his height like him flaming out or are we in essence in virgin or nearly virgin territory? If it's the later than we came really come to any conclusions from a sample size that doesn't really exist? Or to put it another way... if Stroman were to become a viable Major League starter at his height would be exceptional but hasn't he already established that he's somewhat exceptional for someone his height? The Mets once traded Scott Kazmir to the Rays because they thought he was too short and the Rays got three seasons of roughly 4WAR pitching out of that (And yes I realize that Kazmir's generous height listing of 6'0" is a lot more than Stroman but my point isn't that Kazmir is a direct precedent for Stroman, my point is just that making assumptions based on heights when you're dealing with a pitcher that's already established a certain leve of ability may be flawed reasoning).

[Nox]

the K's really aren't that concerning.

 

Said no legitimate baseball person ever.

[Angrioter]

ZiggyPlayedGuitar (Oakland, CA): ROY candidates?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: Yordano Ventura in the AL; Wong or Hamilton in the NL

 

Kodi (Vermont ): How close was Dan Norris?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: Should have been on the list. Late cut. I really like him.

 

Carl (Canada ): True or False. Tirado has the highest ceiling of the Jays arms.

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: I'm tempted to say true, but the Jays are absolutely lousy with high ceiling arms. You can make a case for several in the high ceiling category. But Tirado has a very good case for that distinction.

 

Justin (Asheville): What are some of the teams with the strongest group of players outside of the top 101?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: Astros, Twins, Rangers, and Jays, just to name a few.

 

Adam (TN): What is Oscar Taveras's ceiling in terms of stat line production?

Jason Parks on the Top 101 Prospects: .315/.380/.550 with 30+ bombs and a killer smile

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=1123

[TheHurl]

I've made my opinions on Sano known. He's a top 5 fantasy prospect, top 15 to 20 baseball prospect. I have watched him play defense and there are times where he has no clue. His arm saves him but unless Molitor working on his footwork does wonders for him he'll be bad everywhere he plays. Add in that he's put off surgery and I think that adds even more question marks.

 

Looks like that bottom 5 farm in Boston only produced 6 on the Parks list.

 

Boxy, Winker doesn't make lists cause he's an all out effort guy. Those guys tend not to improve, what you see from him is the max you can expect.

[connorp]

"Here's the thing I wonder with Stroman... Is there much of a precedent of pitchers of his height acomplishing what he has accomplished so far in college and in the prose?"

 

See this I can dig (Also it's "pros" and later supposed to be "latter".. just pointing out as I know English isn't your first language).. if you want to look at if Stroman brings things to the table that all the other sample size guys didn't have for the most part.. that's fine.. I just don't like ignoring the fact that no player in 100 years has had any success as a SP at 5'9 or below..

[Olerud363]

When I talk about players of Stroman's size, I do NOT include taller players like Lincecum and Pedro. You all know this, you just don't have a good counter to my argument that over 100+ years of baseball, Tom Phoebus is the only starter that short to have any kind of success, and it wasn't that much.

 

Again the point is whenever you are generating a list of comparables you use the person of interest as the center. It's not hard. Screen names similiar to Grant77?? Grant75, Grant76, Grant78, Grant79.

 

By comparing Stroman, a short man to only those shorter, you are reducing the sample population to almost nothing and you are comparing him to midgets. Eddie Gadel would be a comparable (if he pitched I guess) while a guy a tad taller then Stroman is not.

[Olerud363]

"Here's the thing I wonder with Stroman... Is there much of a precedent of pitchers of his height acomplishing what he has accomplished so far in college and in the prose?"

 

See this I can dig (Also it's "pros" and later supposed to be "latter".. just pointing out as I know English isn't your first language).. if you want to look at if Stroman brings things to the table that all the other sample size guys didn't have for the most part.. that's fine.. I just don't like ignoring the fact that no player in 100 years has had any success as a SP at 5'9 or below..

 

How many have made it as far as Stroman?? Where do these guys ussually drop off?? For every 100 guys who make it to this point how many are 5'9" or shorter?? I would guess only a couple.

 

This data is from 2008. There is nothing remarkable in the data at all. 6'4" pitchers are the worst. 5'10" pitchers are about the same as 6'2". There is just way less. So if this data is representative (obviously small sample size, multi year data would be interesting, this is just the first thing google finds) small pitchers don't suck, there just aren't many of them.

 

5-10 78 503.0 4.51

5-11 162 998.0 4.47

6-0 444 2653.2 4.16

6-1 673 4276.0 4.23

6-2 888 5677.2 4.41

6-3 784 5069.1 4.32

6-4 578 3620.1 4.83

6-5 454 2724.0 4.69

6-6 176 1265.0 3.99

6-7 169 1085.2 3.93

6-8 16 134.1 4.49

6-9 51 319.2 5.41

6-10 43 251.1 4.23

[GD]

This data is from 2008.

 

Doesn't include Lincecum's best and worst years, unfortunately.

[ElNik2013]

It wouldn't be much fun if all prospect lists were the same, would it?

[Maine Jays]

I have a fantasy question. 20 team dynasty holds a two round draft for all the new prospects yahoo adds, so Taveras, Sano, etc who are on these lists are long gone. After a few lucky trades, I hold #2, 4, 10, 19, 22, and 24. I have enough young arms (Carlos Martinez, Barnes, Meyer) but my only position players of note are Chris Davis, Matt Adams, M. Machado and Puig. My question is, do you think I'm better off going Baez at 2 and Kris Bryant at 4 (assuming Buxton goes first and Tanaka third) and grabbing SP later, since there seems to be more depth there, or should I grab Tanaka or Bradley? Thanks

[Abomination]

I have a fantasy question. 20 team dynasty holds a two round draft for all the new prospects yahoo adds, so Taveras, Sano, etc who are on these lists are long gone. After a few lucky trades, I hold #2, 4, 10, 19, 22, and 24. I have enough young arms (Carlos Martinez, Barnes, Meyer) but my only position players of note are Chris Davis, Matt Adams, M. Machado and Puig. My question is, do you think I'm better off going Baez at 2 and Kris Bryant at 4 (assuming Buxton goes first and Tanaka third) and grabbing SP later, since there seems to be more depth there, or should I grab Tanaka or Bradley? Thanks

 

I would easily say Tanaka first. You're already fine at 1st base, but if he slides enough don't forget about Abreu as well. Hard to say what to expect from him, but a fast start for a mlb ready guy could net you a great trade return if you didn't want to keep him.

[Maine Jays]

Tanaka first, Baez after. Is Correa in it?

 

Yes, but I was thinking more along the lines of when Machado moves to SS after Hardy leaves with Bryant at third and Baez at 2B. I know Bryant could end up in the OF, but given my second best OF is Ben Revere, I wouldn't be losing out.

[Laika]

Just Missed The Cut:

 

Daniel Norris, LHP, Blue Jays

An athletic left-hander with above-average stuff that can miss bats, Norris belonged on the top 101 and there is no way around it. While it’s true that his command woes at present could end up being a long-term hindrance to his ultimate upside, the delivery is actually pretty smooth and his athleticism and overall feel point to a brighter future on the command front. He was as high as no. 80 on a few rough drafts, but slowly trickled down the list before falling off completely so that a few high ceiling/high risk types could get their day in the sun. As much as they belonged, their inclusion shouldn’t have come at the expense of Norris. As far as I’m concerned, this is a top 101 talent.

 

6 FB; 6 SL; 5+ CH

[Dr. Dinger]

I have enough young arms (Carlos Martinez, Barnes, Meyer)

 

I don't think that threesome is ever going to be enough to carry a fantasy rotation in a 20 team league. But having said that, you should never draft for positional need.