Sooooo why exactly did AA let Johnson walk ....

[RIPEXPOS]

JJ wanted out of Toronto. Not because of the Canada thing, just the year was such a disaster for him that he needed a change of scenery.

[jaysfan2014]

And San Diego is considered an extreme pitchers park. Josh Johnson just isn't a fit for hitters parks like all of the AL East, where 4 of the 5 parks (I don't consider the Trop a hitters park) are home run havens.

[wilko]

JJ wanted out of Toronto. Not because of the Canada thing, just the year was such a disaster for him that he needed a change of scenery.

 

He blames the Jays for his poor health?

[RIPEXPOS]

It's a mental thing with athletes. You get traded somewhere and have a disastrous year, you probably want a change of scenery. It's common sense.

[wilko]

It's a mental thing with athletes. You get traded somewhere and have a disastrous year, you probably want a change of scenery. It's common sense.

 

How is that common sense? It's not like he got dicked around. Unless he said that in an interview or you personally know him, you have no idea.

[FireAlexAnthopoulos]

I didn't mind letting him go because it just wasn't working here, but AA's asset management has indeed been atrocious.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Garza started out in the AL East.

 

I should have been more specific. I look at pitchers like JJ and Garza ( less so ) in two phases. The great consistent pitchers in their earlier years and the approx age 28-29 years as being less durable and some question marks exist. In Garza's case sure he might be a good gamble for the Jays if money and asset management are not an issue. But I'm assuming he'll be paid like he'll rebound to his earlier form. I'm just not sure he will and the AL East is a challenge ( sure he met that challenge on the past ), and I'm wondering why there is lukewarm interest in him this off season among real GMs.

 

When I say my "instincts" what I mean is a pure guess based on seeing similar situations in the past and what occurred afterwards. If I'm wrong and they sign him I'm good it makes the Jays better. I just hope he's not injury prone at all, they don't need that. His short stint in Texas was not encouraging, but maybe I'm reading too much into that.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

I feel like AA just underestimated how the price of pitching was going to skyrocket. looking back on it now $14 million doesn't seem horrible for someone with JJ potential.

 

Jays need someone who is somewhat durable at this point. So while they can't completely avoid the risk that any starter they sign gets injured, they can hedge their bets by not signing someone like JJ who is of high risk to get injured ( Morrow is on payroll ).

[connorp]

I was always of the opinion Jays should extend him the QO even though it was a few million more than market value. As someone said, its hard to go wrong on a one year deal. I doubted the Jays would be that active if the off-season..though I didn't this stagnant..

 

I've also always had the opinion.. pure speculation.. that the agent jerked AA around by pretending JJ was very open to signing a one year deal for less money so TOR wouldn't do the QO... and then they could promptly laugh at the stupid ass..

[bendera3]

Feldman @ 3/30 was pretty "skyrocketed" same with Vargas.

 

This is what I meant. Just because the big names didn't sign yet with "skyrocketed" figures doesn't mean that the mid-level starters haven't. If mid-level starters are getting 10 million, what's another 4 for a pitcher who was once among the best pitchers in baseball. And it's not like JJ is in his late 30s. The man will be 30 this season.

[connorp]

Jays need someone who is somewhat durable at this point. So while they can't completely avoid the risk that any starter they sign gets injured, they can hedge their bets by not signing someone like JJ who is of high risk to get injured ( Morrow is on payroll ).

 

Nah. As has been pointed out.. Jays have a lot of depth as far as replacement SP goes.. some guys like Stroman and Hutch that may be good when needed.. so Jays more than most teams are in a position to take some chances on guys.. even with Morrow

[Caper]

You're going to get flamed, but your gripe is legit in this case IMO. JJ @ 1/14 is a better option than Santana/Jimenez at 4/60+ and a much better option than the status quo. At this point, not qualifying him looks like a mistake.

 

Yip... a massive mistake.

[S33n]

We assume he's healthy when we armchair, since we have no definitive information. Obviously it was not a mistake if they knew he had injury concerns.

 

In Johnson' case given his history, how can we, even as armchair GMs assume that there's no injury risk? It just seems so blatantly obvious that there is/was a MASSIVE risk of Johnson being injured. I don't understand why we should forget everything we have seen/read throughout his career because we're not privy to his actual medical reports. We still hear all the releases on the results of his past tests and diagnoses.

[S33n]

Isn't it somewhat the same thing as what you do with numbers? You take past samples and project futures. You look at their past performance and come up with a good, and sound conclusion on what they will do in the future.

 

Can't the same be done in a less mathematical way with injuries? Take a look at his past injury history, all of the problems he has had and if these problems are becoming or have been chronic or a fluke. Then make a good and sound conclusion about his future health based on this information.

 

In Johnson' case his injuries are not fluky line drives off the shin (Roy Halladay) or a collision at home plate (Buster Posey). They are chronic arm issues that have plagued him on a consistent basis for many years now. Taking this past information into consideration can we not, even as arm chair gm's, assume a higher risk of the same or similar injury occurring in the future? Thus lowering his value due to massive reliability issues.

 

When most of these arguments surrounding Johnson were occurring in the off-season, those of us who didn't want him back were assuming it was because the 14M would have gone toward a E.Santana type of signing. Using that thought process can we not argue against offering Johnson a QO or re-signing him at all, thinking there would be no money left for another piece?

 

I'm happy we didn't sign him, and the result we're seeing now with his injury trouble is the exact reason why. I'm very disappointed the money wasn't spent elsewhere.

[S33n]

Projecting injuries doesn't really work that way, people have tried. Velocity drops are more predictive of injuries than past injuries IIRC.

 

How was Johnson' velocity last year, compared with his hay days (09-10)?

[S33n]

Down 2 mph, but you assume that to be because of previous injury and not an indicator of future injury. His velo was constant 12-13

 

I understand your argument. You're very analytical in the way you come to your conclusions.

 

We will have to agree to disagree on this though.

 

If Dustin McGowan had a clean bill of health at the beginning of this year, good medical checks the whole 9 yards, I still would not put faith in him making 30 starts. I would not be able to assume healthy and project his future value based on this assumption.

[AdamGreenwood]

I guarantee you that the execs take past health into account when making trades/contracts.

If a guy pitches 200 IP every year for thirteen years in a row, that makes him worth more than a guy who gets injured every other year - even if he has a clean bill of health to start the season.

 

Guys like JJ and Reyes are known health risks.

[Terminator]

I guarantee you that the execs take past health into account when making trades/contracts.

If a guy pitches 200 IP every year for thirteen years in a row, that makes him worth more than a guy who gets injured every other year - even if he has a clean bill of health to start the season.

 

Guys like JJ and Reyes are known health risks.

 

You are probably right. Best JJ could do on the open market was 8 million. I'm sure health was a factor.

[TheHurl]

We currently have a rotation of McGowan, Hutch, Morrow and Dickey and put a lot of stake into Jose Reyes and Bautista but somehow our front office has huge concerns about a 1 year contract because of past health issues????

[Terminator]

I'm more inclined to think it was due to current health, rather than prior, but I think Spanky has the right idea.

 

That's an assumption of a player's health!

 

And do you really think that past injuries play no part in a player's contract?

 

I can't believe you just won't admit you were wrong on this one. It happens to the best of us.

Edited April 16, 2014 by Terminator

[ElNik2013]

I don't know, Hutchison makes minimum salary. McGowan makes 1M and Morrow had a contract already, not sure what the point is. Reyes and Bautista had contracts already and are integral parts of the team.

 

Let's just say they dodged a bullet. Better lucky than good, ask the Red Sox last year.

[ElNik2013]

Let's face it, if they had QO'ed JJ and he was injured right now, some would be blasting the FO for bringing him back at 14M with his injury history and the way he performed last year even with the bad luck.

 

It is what it is, some good luck is welcome, take it and move on.

[Terminator]

We currently have a rotation of McGowan, Hutch, Morrow and Dickey and put a lot of stake into Jose Reyes and Bautista but somehow our front office has huge concerns about a 1 year contract because of past health issues????

 

Well thank god they finally smartened up. No one was willing to give him more than 8 million, 14 would have been a huge overpay and and as we now know would have blown up in their face.

 

Plus, a lot of those guys were already under contract before they started showing signs of being prone to injury or their injury history just doesn't even compare to Johnson's whose arm is made of glass.

[ElNik2013]

Or we could've signed Santana.......

 

 

If they had QO'ed JJ, that would've been it for the off season. And yes, it would've been nice to have signed Santana, but they did try and by all reports had an agreement in place. I believe even Santana said he was getting ready to sign with Toronto until Medlen got hurt and the Braves called. He clearly preferred to go to the National League if he had the chance, not unlike JJ.

[ElNik2013]

Well thank god they finally smartened up. No one was willing to give him more than 8 million, 14 would have been a huge overpay and and as we now know would have blown up in their face.

 

Plus, a lot of those guys were already under contract before they started showing signs of being prone to injury or their injury history just doesn't even compare to Johnson's whose arm is made of glass.

 

 

This is true. The market spoke and said 8M is what he was worth. I believe there's also an option that vests if he makes less than 7 starts in 2014, but I don't know how much it's for. Looks like even less than 8M per year to me.

[ElNik2013]

If we offered him a QO, I bet he still would've took less cash to rebuild his value. Who knows?

 

 

I tend to suspect the same, but like you said, who knows?

[Terminator]

This is true. The market spoke and said 8M is what he was worth. I believe there's also an option that vests if he makes less than 7 starts in 2014, but I don't know how much it's for. Looks like even less than 8M per year to me.

 

It's for 4 million I believe. I wonder if the Pads will even exercise it at this point? haha

[jb22]

That's an assumption of a player's health!

 

And do you really think that past injuries play no part in a player's contract?

 

I can't believe you just won't admit you were wrong on this one. It happens to the best of us.

 

Don't you know by now, many posters on this board are never "wrong". Most would be top 5 GMs in mlb if someone would just give them a damn chance.

[ElNik2013]

Waiting to despair, was their own fault. He was a fish they should've caught prior to the Medlen injury.

 

 

Except that you're forgetting that Santana only decided to lower his demands to a 1-year deal around March 7th and he signed with the Braves on March 12th.

[TheHurl]

Well thank god they finally smartened up. No one was willing to give him more than 8 million, 14 would have been a huge overpay and and as we now know would have blown up in their face.

 

Plus, a lot of those guys were already under contract before they started showing signs of being prone to injury or their injury history just doesn't even compare to Johnson's whose arm is made of glass.

 

I realize the semantics of it all. I'm just saying that the Jays replaced Johnson's spot with with guys just as fragile (you can't say that Dusty is any more sturdy than Josh) so the Jays are not Injury Risk adverse. My opinion is that injuries aside, if he put up an ERA similar to his xFIP or projections for this year...he'd probably would have got the QO. I didn't want JJ last year so in no way would I want him this year, but I just find it hard to believe that his ERA wasn't a major factor in their decision.