ESPN - Fits for remaining pitching Bargains

[leaffie]

From ESPN insider

 

Paul Maholm, LHP

 

 

 

Perfect fit: Toronto Blue Jays

 

If you stopped paying attention at the halfway point of 2013, you probably remember Paul Maholm having a pretty decent year. At the break, he had thrown 115 innings and had a 3.98 ERA, and had helped the Braves build a nice big lead in the NL East. Then, in his first start of the second half, he gave up seven runs in three innings and was subsequently placed on the DL with a left wrist contusion, which caused him to spend the next month on the sidelines. He was pretty mediocre after returning from the DL in late August, and then was left off the Braves' playoff roster, ending his season on a pretty sour note.

 

But prior to those 35 bad innings in the second half, Maholm was on a 450-inning run of consistently solid performances. He ran a 3.66 ERA/3.68 FIP in 2011, and then followed that up with a 3.67 ERA/4.00 FIP in 2012. At the All-Star break, he was at 3.98 ERA/4.07 FIP. These aren't sexy numbers, but they're perfectly serviceable for a major league starting pitcher, and that's not the kind of track record you want to ignore because a guy had 35 bad innings surrounding a stint on the DL.

 

As a 32-year-old lefty with an 87 mph fastball, though, Maholm doesn't exactly get anyone excited. However, it isn't hard to make a case that Maholm can give a team most of what Jason Vargas could put up, and Vargas got $32 million over four years earlier in the offseason. On a cheap one-year deal, Maholm could be a great addition to a team like the Blue Jays, who need a short-term upgrade but hate giving long-term deals to pitchers. Maholm won't be the kind of signing that gets Blue Jays fans excited like last year's trades did, but he'll help make sure that they don't have to watch Ricky Romero take the mound again in 2014, and that makes it a move worth doing in and of itself.

[GD]

Meh, wouldn't mind it.

[Chappy]

I suggested Maholm a month ago as a joke. If this actually happened, it would be idiotic unless we're flipping Happ to another team.

[jays4life19]

No thanks

[G-Snarls]

I suggested Maholm a month ago as a joke. If this actually happened, it would be idiotic unless we're flipping Happ to another team.

 

Yep. We need a 1-2 level starter, not another 4-5. (We have a surplus of those)

[Jays]

Paul Maholm, LHP

 

 

 

Perfect fit: Toronto Blue Jays

 

I lol'd

[Abomination]

I think Maholm is extremely underrated (someone should get great value out of him), but with that said I agree with others in that he's not the kind of guy we need right now.

[Chappy]

Yep. We need a 1-2 level starter, not another 4-5. (We have a surplus of those)

 

Exactly, unless there is a trade to follow up such a move to address another need.

[GD]

If it was a cheap short term commitment and it was clear we weren't making any other upgrades / we were strapped for cash I wouldn't mind this.

 

But yeah, aim bigger.

[Boxcar]

Maholm is a decent pitcher and should come very cheap. I'd be very interested. He's more intriguing than our Drabek/Richmond/McGowan types.

 

The whole "junkballers can't survive in the AL East" mentality annoys me. Buehrle succeeded and Maholm has a history of suppressing homers -- he's not going to get that hurt by Rogers Centre. Career 5.75/2.92/0.85 FIP coordinates are Buehrlesque. Go get him AA.

 

He's on your fantasy team, isn't he?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

We have absolutely horrible pitching depth. Signing someone like Maholm to compete for the 4th-5th spot would be an excellent idea.

[Convo]

Euw

[z3r0s]

We have absolutely horrible pitching depth. Signing someone like Maholm to compete for the 4th-5th spot would be an excellent idea.

 

Yeah I don't get that either. Our depth is fine. Our top end quality is bad.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Meh. I think he'd be a waste of money unless he's coming for $1-2 million.

 

2/3 - Dickey

3/4 - Buehrle, Morrow

5/6 - Rogers, Happ, Redmond, Hutchison, Stroman, Nolin

 

"depth" that I never want to see start a game - McGowan, Drabek, Jenkins, Rasmussen, McGuire, Romero

 

Maholm would be another name to add to that 5/6 group, but I'm not convinced he adds any more than those guys. f*** that rotation is a mess.

 

"5/6 - Rogers, Happ, Redmond, Hutchison, Stroman, Nolin"

 

-Rogers is a gascan

-Happ is fine as a swingman or a spot starter, whatever

-Redmond will clearly get hammered next year. 29 year old with marginal velocity and marginal stuff. Guy just throws fastballs down the heart of the plate 65-70% of the time. Will get hammered next year.

-Hutch, Stroman, and Nolin are all question marks.

 

"Depth" to me is being able to run out guys who can be relied on to give you 150+ innings of reasonable production. Maholm has gone 150+ innings in 8 straight seasons. He'd be a great get.

 

Since 2006, Maholm is 65th in baseball in WAR. Not bad at all for a low price.

[GD]

Since 2006, Maholm is 65th in baseball in WAR. Not bad at all for a low price.

 

What about past 3 years?

[NorthOf49]

What about past 3 years?

88th with a 3.89/4.00/3.92 ERA/FIP/xFIP line. Maholm is a decent pitcher who would stabilize our #5 spot and keep some of the question marks in AAA to prove themselves/save service time. I like it.

 

Also, I'm cutting him in DDL so this is not a propaganda play. I legitimately think Maholm can help the team.

[GD]

I would like 1/4 or something.

[Sorrow]

If he comes cheap there is no negative to this. It keeps Stroman, Hutch and Drabek in AAA to start the year, at worst you eat salary and dump him after a month.

 

Dickey, Morrow, Beurhle, Rogers/Maholm/Happ is better than we currently have penciled in. Add someone like Jimenez and you throw Maholm on the back, can't argue too much outside of the cost.

[Key22]

What is the definition of cheap? The guys is kind of another Mark Beurhle which is not bad actually but if we sign him we're probably going to have the lowest pitching speed staff in baseball - 3 guys who rarely if ever hit 88mph! Then again the jump to Delabar/Santos/Jansen is much greater.

 

If you just look at his numbers - I mean really who cares if the guy throws 12 miles an hour underhand if he can get people out? The guy is actually pretty good - very possible to get 170-190 innings of solid pitching from the guy and if he's undervalued then it's not a bad signing. A Tanaka/Maholm off-season would be a pretty nice haul.

 

Dickey

Tanaka

Beurhle

Morrow

Maholm

 

Happ/Hutchison/Rogers (as long men spot starters)

Loup (LOOGY)

Cecil (Lefty set-up man)

Delabar/Santos (righty set-up)

Jansen (Closer)

 

Granted Happ arguably would fill this role but he hasn't cracked 160 innings since 2009 (and then only 166). Besides Morrow will probably break by June so we'll need the extra arms.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

WTF??? Pitching depth is one of our strengths.

 

Our rotation is essentially the same as last year, where we were terrible, but pitching depth is our strength.

 

Um ok

 

The Cardinals have pitching depth. The Rays have pitching depth. We have two legitimate starters, one guy who could be great but is one of the most unrealiable starters in the bigs, and heaps of fringe garbage.

 

Great depth right there.

[Laika]

Our pitching depth is far better than we had last season, there's no debate in this? Not to mention the off-season, is hardly done with. Stop panicking bro, it's not healthy.

 

Depends how you define depth. The Blue Jays have a lot of names, but they don't have a lot of projectable production. Lots of names, not a lot of WARz.

 

Dickey

Buehrle

Morrow

Stroman

Happ

Hutch

Drabek

Redmond

Rogers

McGowan

Nolin

 

Dickey should be a SP2/3 and Buehrle should be a SP3/4. You can't count on Morrow for 20, let alone 32 starts. And then everybody from Stroman down probably projects to be somewhere between replacement level and a 1 WAR talent in 2014. It's a lot of junk and a few prospects. Ideally, Stroman+Drabek+Hutch+Nolin can all start in the minors AND the Jays can avoid gifting rotation spots to two of Happ, Rogers, McGowan...

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Depends how you define depth. The Blue Jays have a lot of names, but they don't have a lot of projectable production. Lots of names, not a lot of WARz.

 

Dickey

Buehrle

Morrow

Stroman

Happ

Hutch

Drabek

Redmond

Rogers

McGowan

Nolin

 

Dickey should be a SP2/3 and Buehrle should be a SP3/4. You can't count on Morrow for 20, let alone 32 starts. And then everybody from Stroman down probably projects to be somewhere between replacement level and a 1 WAR talent in 2014. It's a lot of junk and a few prospects. Ideally, Stroman+Drabek+Hutch+Nolin can all start in the minors AND the Jays can avoid gifting rotation spots to two of Happ, Rogers, McGowan...

 

So in other words, our major league ready SP is bottom 10 in the majors!

 

Signed, #1 NJH fanboy ECJF