Merged Colby "prepare for a trade" and "quits winter tour" threads

[TBJ12]

I would put Colby's floor for next season at around 2 WAR. Gose needs a miracle to match those numbers. IMO Colby was one of the most under-rated players in all of baseball in 2013...as a Jays fan, I hope it happens again.

[TBJ12]

Because he is streaky/unreliable, his trade value is likely to be at an all time high and there are a couple of very viable replacements in the system.

 

Your assuming last year was he best season. It's possible but, I'm not so sure.

[TBJ12]

I'm drunk, just wanted to put that out there in case I say something I regret.

[DuckDuckGose]

Before last season he put up 1.1WAR and 0.5 WAR, that's his floor and it isn't an unlikely scenario. He's also due for a raise if he performs and the Jays are unlikely to give it to him. Trade him now and get value back before he walks for nothing but a comp pick.

[Angrioter]

AA, extend Rasmus or trade for Trout!!

Gose isn't a good option as a starter right now and Melky is s***.

[Frenchsoup]

I would put Colby's floor for next season at around 2 WAR. Gose needs a miracle to match those numbers. IMO Colby was one of the most under-rated players in all of baseball in 2013...as a Jays fan, I hope it happens again.

 

Maybe, he also can't steal a base or throw a baseball some maybe we're overated him

[TBJ12]

Maybe, he also can't steal a base or throw a baseball some maybe we're overated him

 

How many people in baseball know Colby put up almost 5 WAR? I see what your saying, just don't believe many actually gave him the credit he deserved.

[DuckDuckGose]

Your assuming last year was he best season. It's possible but, I'm not so sure.

 

If he has a better season he isn't going to be a Blue Jay in 2015, he's going for the payday -- all the more reason to move him.

[TBJ12]

If he has a better season he isn't going to be a Blue Jay in 2015, he's going for the payday -- all the more reason to move him.

 

Once again, this is just your opinion.

[DuckDuckGose]

Do you honestly believe the Jays would give Rasmus a +$100M contract? If he improves on last season that is what Colby will get on the open market.

[TBJ12]

Do you honestly believe the Jays would give Rasmus a +$100M contract? If he improves on last season that is what Colby will get on the open market.

 

I doubt it takes $100M. I'm glad it's not my decision to make though.

[DuckDuckGose]

it's all hypothetical but he'd be hitting the market at 28yo coming off two monster seasons. He would get more years and dollars than the 4yr $15mAAV per contract Granderson just signed. IMO he'd be well over $100M and looking at 6-8yrs at +$20M.

[TheHurl]

Colby hitting his career average BABIP last year does drop him down below a .240/.315 line though. He can't keep striking out that much. He's a guy that I'd be scared to give him market value, but I'd be scared to let him walk. I don't know what his reputation around the league is so you might not get fair market trades...but I'd certainly be listening.

[TBJ12]

it's all hypothetical but he'd be hitting the market at 28yo coming off two monster seasons. He would get more years and dollars than the 4yr $15mAAV per contract Granderson just signed. IMO he'd be well over $100M and looking at 6-8yrs at +$20M.

 

I obviously like Colby, I'm just not sure how you pay someone like him. If forced to offer a deal today 5/75 sound's fair for both sides, it probably wouldn't take much to push me to 5/80.

[DuckDuckGose]

BJ Upton got that deal and if he outperforms his 2013 season Colby will be a significantly more valuable asset in a time where there is more money in the game.

[GD]

Colby hitting his career average BABIP last year does drop him down below a .240/.315 line though. He can't keep striking out that much. He's a guy that I'd be scared to give him market value, but I'd be scared to let him walk. I don't know what his reputation around the league is so you might not get fair market trades...but I'd certainly be listening.

 

JFaS regressed him to a .315 BABIP once, and before theblujay freaked the f*** out about not appreciating the game, he found that Colby would've been good for a .340 wOBA or somewhere around that, which is like a 108 wRC+. So not quite as extreme as .240/.315, his power helps.

[TBJ12]

Colby hitting his career average BABIP last year does drop him down below a .240/.315 line though. He can't keep striking out that much. He's a guy that I'd be scared to give him market value, but I'd be scared to let him walk. I don't know what his reputation around the league is so you might not get fair market trades...but I'd certainly be listening.

 

I honestly believed he was striking out less in the second half last season.

[TBJ12]

BJ Upton got that deal and if he outperforms his 2013 season Colby will be a significantly more valuable asset in a time where there is more money in the game.

 

"If forced to offer a deal today 5/75 sound's fair for both sides, it probably wouldn't take much to push me to 5/80.''

 

I'd rather sign him before he earns the $100M payday.

[DuckDuckGose]

"If forced to offer a deal today 5/75 sound's fair for both sides, it probably wouldn't take much to push me to 5/80.''

 

I'd rather sign him before he earns the $100M payday.

 

I'd go 5yrs and a little less than $75M (high 60's up to $70M but we're splitting hairs) but I don't really see the incentive for Colby to sign that deal. Even if he puts up ~3.5 WAR next year he'll get that and he is giving the impression he is going for the big payday.

 

At the end of the day I think it boils down to this question; "If they aren't going to sign Colby to an extension this off-season would you move him?"

 

IMO it's an easy yes but, if the Jays are really going for it they may be happy with letting him walk and taking the comp pick.

[Abomination]

I'd go 5yrs and a little less than $75M (high 60's up to $70M but we're splitting hairs) but I don't really see the incentive for Colby to sign that deal. Even if he puts up ~3.5 WAR next year he'll get that and he is giving the impression he is going for the big payday.

 

At the end of the day I think it boils down to this question; "If they aren't going to sign Colby to an extension this off-season would you move him?"

 

IMO it's an easy yes but, if the Jays are really going for it they may be happy with letting him walk and taking the comp pick.

 

I think it depends what you can move him for. If it's a decent player with several years of control, then absolutely. If not, might be better to keep him and get the pick.

[DuckDuckGose]

That's very true. I'm working under the assumption you can get a front of the rotation pitcher back for Colby (perhaps plus depending on the return) which is a fairly large assumption to make.

[TheHurl]

JFaS regressed him to a .315 BABIP once, and before theblujay freaked the f*** out about not appreciating the game, he found that Colby would've been good for a .340 wOBA or somewhere around that, which is like a 108 wRC+. So not quite as extreme as .240/.315, his power helps.

 

I think that is right around where Steamer and Oliver have this year too. I just straight took last year's Balls in Play and ran them with a .300 average on them...not at all trying to predict what his BABIP will be next year.

[ElNik2013]

I'd go 5yrs and a little less than $75M (high 60's up to $70M but we're splitting hairs) but I don't really see the incentive for Colby to sign that deal. Even if he puts up ~3.5 WAR next year he'll get that and he is giving the impression he is going for the big payday.

 

At the end of the day I think it boils down to this question; "If they aren't going to sign Colby to an extension this off-season would you move him?"

 

IMO it's an easy yes but, if the Jays are really going for it they may be happy with letting him walk and taking the comp pick.

 

 

I think pulling out of the winter tour is a bad sign regarding negotiations for an extension, I think The Hurl said this earlier. I think you're right that it's an easy yes, but the fact that they're trying to win now does change the equation. I guess they could always trade him during the season if they think they're getting a better return than a pick.

 

At least there's a new rumor to talk about.

[GD]

I think that is right around where Steamer and Oliver have this year too. I just straight took last year's Balls in Play and ran them with a .300 average on them...not at all trying to predict what his BABIP will be next year.

 

Yeah, I know, that's useful for a back of the napkin kind of thing. The wOBA regression was fairly complex for the non-engineers of us, IIRC.

[BlueJaysGirl]

http://jaysjournal.com/2014/01/04/colby-rasmus-told-blue-jays-prepare-trade/

 

Interesting...considering Gose struggled in winter ball and the org's outfield depth sux.

[jays4life19]

It's been discussed at length here: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/2050-Colby-pulls-out-of-winter-tour

[BlueJaysGirl]

It's been discussed at length here: http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/2050-Colby-pulls-out-of-winter-tour

 

It deserves its own thread. Unless we have a limited amount of threads that can be posted on this site.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

@BlueJaysFacts looking back over that tweet let me make one thing clear. Colby didn't hear that info from AA.

 

— Tony_Rasmus_IV (@FlorenceFalcon0) January 5, 2014

 

 

@CashGameND @BlueJaysFacts no it wasn't anyone from the blue jays organization.

 

— Tony_Rasmus_IV (@FlorenceFalcon0) January 5, 2014

 

--

 

Tony being Tony

[Dr. Dinger]

Bailey and/or Phillips?

[LunchBox]

Bailey and/or Phillips?

 

This is the first thing I thought of too. Rasmus+Janssen+Goins for Bailey+Phillips? Contract issues aside, CIN has to realize they're a better team keeping Phillips though, which is cause for concern.