Around Baseball 2014

[BTS]

I don't see this deal as particularly risky. 3 years @ 14 per is unlikely to carry significant negative value, and with a repeat of 2014 they were looking at something like 5/100 instead of 3/42.

[KingKat]

they were looking at something like 5/100 instead of 3/42.

 

Except that if his demands are that high, they will just walk away and walk away pretty happy because if his demands are that high, it means they made a huge profit on the deal they had.

[Gorlak]

Except that if his demands are that high, they will just walk away and walk away pretty happy because if his demands are that high, it means they made a huge profit on the deal they had.

 

Lot's of unrealized gains.

[KingKat]

Lot's of unrealized gains.

 

You never lose money taking a profit.

[Gorlak]

What you call a rigid stance, some might simply call good process. Your staff can be wrong (Romero), your staff can be right (Bautista). You have to allow for both possibilities in your planning. No one is Nostrodamus.

 

You can't build a good baseball team by making no decisions. Works better if you have somebody smart make decisions.

[BTS]

Except that if his demands are that high, they will just walk away and walk away pretty happy because if his demands are that high, it means they made a huge profit on the deal they had.

 

But having him under contract for three reasonably priced years beats beats having him walk for a comp pick. I like the idea of extending a player 1-2 years before free agency if you can find terms that work, and I think these terms work. We live in a world where Feldmans and Guthries and Vargases land 20-30 M guarantees. I think a healthy Hughes is a very solid bet to be significantly better than that.

[Gorlak]

You never lose money taking a profit.

 

Well if you let him walk you get a pick. which may not be worth nearly as much as the surplus value the player had actually been worth and if you don't win that value is wasted. If a team can't win and can't extend a player of notable value they should always trade the player.

[BTS]

Well if you let him walk you get a pick. which may not be worth nearly as much as the surplus value the player had actually been worth and if you don't win that value is wasted. If a team can't win and can't extend a player of notable value they should always trade the player.

 

I like that the Twins stepped up to keep their guy here. They've been through a rough stretch, and just stumbled on a guy good enough to set the single-season K/BB record. Good for them for absorbing a palatable amount of risk to make sure their guy isn't being poached for at least five years. They're trying to build a quality product, and the optics of losing an ace (if indeed he is one) would be disastrous.

[GD]

Minnesota's setting themselves up for a bright future.

[BTS]

Minnesota's setting themselves up for a bright future.

 

I hope their young guys work out and their FO makes good enough decisions to support them with good vets. Their core could be a lot of fun to watch going forward.

[GD]

I hope their young guys work out and their FO makes good enough decisions to support them with good vets. Their core could be a lot of fun to watch going forward.

 

It's a shame they probably value Plouffe properly, he'd be a fantastic get for us. I really hope Buxton works out (and Vargas! shameless plug) and that Mauer can at least start getting back to what he once was.

[L54]

Can someone explain why FIP and xFIP weren't especially kind to Phil Hughes before his arrival in Minnesota? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't they supposed to do their best to suppress the randomness a pitcher is subject to?

 

We knew this prior to Hughes playing in Minneapolis:

A) He's a fly ball pitcher

Yankee Stadium isn't friendly to fly ball pitchers

C) Target Field is friendly to fly ball pitchers

 

So my question is, why is there such a discrepancy between the two environments? Or is it a product of setting the single season K/BB ratio, and the fact that pitchers control both these variables?

[jaysblue]

Phil Hughes is available in the DDL. Send me some wise offers.

[Brownie19]

Phil Hughes is available in the DDL. Send me some wise offers.

 

New to the board - DDL sounds like it's a keeper fantasy league. Any openings? I run a re-draft fantasy league of guys from the ESPN blue jays message board. We're going on our 8th or 9th year now. Would be interested if you have an opening.

[GD]

=Any openings?

 

Never, lol. BBDL has some though.

[King]

New to the board - DDL sounds like it's a keeper fantasy league. Any openings? I run a re-draft fantasy league of guys from the ESPN blue jays message board. We're going on our 8th or 9th year now. Would be interested if you have an opening.

 

S'up.. BBDL has about 3 or 4 openings, post ITT if you are interested.

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/1367-Breaking-Blue-Dynasty-League/page461

[Laika]

Can someone explain why FIP and xFIP weren't especially kind to Phil Hughes before his arrival in Minnesota? Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't they supposed to do their best to suppress the randomness a pitcher is subject to?

 

We knew this prior to Hughes playing in Minneapolis:

A) He's a fly ball pitcher

Yankee Stadium isn't friendly to fly ball pitchers

C) Target Field is friendly to fly ball pitchers

 

So my question is, why is there such a discrepancy between the two environments? Or is it a product of setting the single season K/BB ratio, and the fact that pitchers control both these variables?

 

Phil Hughes' skill level changed.

[BTS]

You could always put yourself on the DDL waiting list and hope one of us doesn't have children.

[L54]

Phil Hughes' skill level changed.

 

Based his ability to limit walks?

 

His GB% was up, and FB% down. But his LD% was up.

 

To me, he's a product of the environment. From what I understand, xFIP is supposed to eliminate that variance.

[BTS]

Based his ability to limit walks?

 

His GB% was up, and FB% down. But his LD% was up.

 

To me, he's a product of the environment. From what I understand, xFIP is supposed to eliminate that variance.

 

xFIP is really just K, BB, and GB rate. His xFIP was lower because he stopped walking people.

[Deadpool]

Phil Hughes is available in the DDL. Send me some wise offers.

 

Dwayne Wise for Phil Hughes... Gotcha!

[L54]

xFIP is really just K, BB, and GB rate. His xFIP was lower because he stopped walking people.

 

This is what I was looking for. Thanks BTS.

[jaysblue]

xFIP is really just K, BB, and GB rate. His xFIP was lower because he stopped walking people.

 

He's always had decent BB rates (2.16 BB/9 in 2012). Just this season he literally walked almost nobody. Do you think he can sustain something similar 0.69 BB/9 moving forward?

[jaysblue]

Dwayne Wise for Phil Hughes... Gotcha!

 

How about Corey Patterson?

[GD]

He's always had decent BB rates (2.16 BB/9 in 2012). Just this season he literally walked almost nobody. Do you think he can sustain something similar 0.69 BB/9 moving forward?

 

Probably not, simply because that's just such an insanely impressive number.

[KingKat]

He's always had decent BB rates (2.16 BB/9 in 2012). Just this season he literally walked almost nobody. Do you think he can sustain something similar 0.69 BB/9 moving forward?

 

Holy crap that's low. I didn't think Price would maintain his low BB rate and it turns out he did but that was twice as high. At the risk of being wrong again, I'll say he Hughes can't sustain it. Career bests happen and it's hard to imagine something that low not being a career best.

[Gorlak]

He also went from terrible HR/9 to great HR/9.

[BTS]

He's always had decent BB rates (2.16 BB/9 in 2012). Just this season he literally walked almost nobody. Do you think he can sustain something similar 0.69 BB/9 moving forward?

 

No, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was in the 1.5 range, which would make him a 5/1 K/B guy.

[L54]

He also went from terrible HR/9 to great HR/9.

 

Yankee Stadium vs Target Field

[Gorlak]

Yankee Stadium vs Target Field

 

True, but xfip doesn't think the difference would be that pronounced. Just another reason it dropped so much this season.