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Olerud363 FCL Blue Jays

Olerud363

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Dammit, why did AA miss out on this guy? #casual

 

I looked into it and it seems that Harper actually was drafted 1st overall by the nats. The Blue Jays just did not have a chance to grab him.

 

However did you know that Mike Trout was available when the Blue Jays drafted Chad Jenkins in 2009?? And Troy Tulo was there when they took Romero in 2005??

 

The blue jays could of easily had Trout and Tulo. All they had to do was draft them instead of crappy pitchers. I blame John Gibbons actually.... He was manager in 2005 and I am sure Gibby thought the Jays needed a pitcher. Riccardi made the pick... I know that. But c'mon. Gibby was in his ear...

 

"C'mon J.P. I need some pitchers... just to get some guys out. It's all about the pitching". I can guarentee you Gibby said that. Then in 2009 Gibby was on his little break... but that annoying whining voice would of still been in J.P.s ear ('cm'on J.P. I need a pitcher).

 

I hate Gibby. I bet we would have Trout and Tulo if it wasn't for that idiot.

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Spanky__99
Spanky__99

Nah, the rumour according to Morisi, is they're trying to move Andrus. Yet, in this circumstance Profar or Odor make sense.

xposbrad Draft Eligible

xposbrad

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
JonHeymanCBS

headley signing with yanks. 4 yrs, a little north of $50M

 

I thought he had a deal for 65m. 4/52 is a pretty solid deal for the Yanks. He was 4.4 WAR last year.

43211234 FCL Blue Jays

43211234

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Donaldson

Longoria

Machado

Sandoval

Headley

 

In terms of who I'd want for next year ignoring contracts. I'd swap Pablo and Headley in the real world where their salaries matter. Overall I think Headley will be a better player than Sandoval over the length of their contracts though.

Mikeleelop Draft Eligible

Mikeleelop

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Redsox just signed nestor Molina. wasn't he the big Jays prospect that was given up to get Santos??

 

how the mighty have fallen...

 

prospects don't always turn out. sometimes you get more value out of a trade then waiting to see if they turn out

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
For this year:

Donaldson

Machado

Longoria

Headley

Sandoval

 

Long term flip Machado and Donaldson

 

Edit: f*** it I'd rather have Arod and his remaining contract.

 

Stacked. Sandoval might be a 4 WAR player.

Sammy225 FCL Blue Jays

Sammy225

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Stacked. Sandoval might be a 4 WAR player.

 

I defiantly think he will enjoy the hitter friendly confines of Fenway....

 

My list goes:

 

Donaldson

Longo

Machado

Sandoval

Headley

 

However if Machado can stay healthy and get his head figured out he could jump pretty quick.

LongTimeReader College Ball

LongTimeReader

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
By Steamer wRC+:

 

126 Donaldson

124 Sandoval

124 Longoria

112 Headley

112 Machado

 

They're probably all above-average defensively. Pretty stacked.

 

I wouldn't go with wRC+ and then generalize their defense as above-average. Instead just go with WAR:

 

5.6 Donaldson

5.4 Longoria

5.2 Machado

3.9 Headley

3.6 Sandoval

 

And for fun... 3.8 Lawrie

 

By the way: Are the projections updated to include their new home ballpark for 2015?

LongTimeReader College Ball

LongTimeReader

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Sandoval's and Donaldson's are. Headley probably not yet.

 

What I don't get is why would Josh Donaldson drop to 5.6 WAR after going 7.7, 6.4 the last 2 seasons... I guess it's put some weight on that 2012 season. You'd think with the new ballpark his WAR would go up...

burlingtonbandit New Hampshire Fisher Cats

burlingtonbandit

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
What I don't get is why would Josh Donaldson drop to 5.6 WAR after going 7.7, 6.4 the last 2 seasons... I guess it's put some weight on that 2012 season. You'd think with the new ballpark his WAR would go up...

 

Age, could lose defensive value after leaving Oakland's ballpark with such large foul areas.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
What I don't get is why would Josh Donaldson drop to 5.6 WAR after going 7.7, 6.4 the last 2 seasons... I guess it's put some weight on that 2012 season. You'd think with the new ballpark his WAR would go up...

 

Very high WAR total occurrences like that tend to be driven partly by luck. Regression is appropriate.

 

He's projected to be the best 3B in baseball and the 6th best position player. Steamer isn't exactly pessimistic on him...

LongTimeReader College Ball

LongTimeReader

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Why? It should stay the same. Park factors are removed from WAR to make it an even playing field for comparison.

 

And regression is the simple answer to your first question.

 

Right on!

LongTimeReader College Ball

LongTimeReader

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
WAR can change based on park though, due to park tailoring. For example, flyball right handed hitters would receive more of a bump going to Fenway from say AT&T than groundball hitters. But an average player would not change.

 

Thanks, you're a great poster dude. A lot of value in your posts.

 

But I'm not sure about his WAR being based entirely on 'regression', since steamer uses the last 3 seasons with more weight on the most recent season, you can still expect that 2012 season is bringing that projection down by some degree. You could call that regression, there's a lot of assumptions in that type of projection.

KingKat All-Star

KingKat

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Lowrie gets a SS gig so it's unlikely that the Jays ever really had a chance.

 

If SD lands Tocano to boot, I'll be pretty despaired.

intentional wok Vancouver Canadians

intentional wok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
He lives in Houston, which is probably counting for a lot in this case. Barring a colossal difference in offered cash a team like the Jays were probably only ever a leverage chip. I'm willing to bet AA was trying to be as in on this as possible.
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