Around Baseball 2014

[GD]

Isn't he talking to jays_fever? I don't know...

 

I can't tell with him lmao

[jaysfan2014]

The O's should only be better, if they can get full seasons out of Weiters and Machado, and a marginal bounce back from Davis. The kids gloves will be off Gausman too.

 

Not so certain on Wieters. His numbers are expected to significantly regress from his small sample size in 2014 pre-injury (heavily BABIP inflated). And Machado's got to stay healthy. And of course, losing Cruz will definitely hurt. Without Cruz, the O's don't even make the playoffs, and likely finish behind the Yankees and Blue Jays.

 

Oh, and it's more likely that Gausman starts in the bullpen or AAA.. that awful Ubaldo Jimenez deal is still there. No way the O's will pay him all that money to be a long reliever/mop-up man.. they'll probably see if he can improve as a starter first before giving Gausman a chance, unless the O's trade a starter (which is likely.. no way the O's are raising the payroll to $150M, as is projected.)

[jaysfan2014]

Without Markakis, and assuming they offer arby to everyone arby-eligible, and exercise options, as expected, they'll be about flat ... maybe a bit lower.

 

They have 5 relievers either facing arby, or a club option ... so they can manage a bit of payroll there, if they want.

 

It's quite possible they could afford to bring back everyone of import from this past year (Markakis on a new deal; Cruz on a multi-year deal), and be better than last year, with Machado and Wieters back, Davis a potential bounce back candidate, and improvements from youngsters like Gausman and Schoop ... and anything more positive from Jimenez.

 

They already have one too many starters.

 

Of course, payroll notwithstanding, they're also going to have to hope that the Red Sox, Rays, Jays and Yankees continue to be mediocre (doubtful, especially with the Rays and Red Sox likely to improve in 2015.) This was probably their best chance to win a World Series.. it may be difficult for them to return next season, no matter what the roster is.

[jaysfan2014]

Here's a Grantland article on who they expect to sustain their playoff chances in 2015.. O's should've won this year, because the outlook isn't good, especially with the Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays expected to be better:

 

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoffs-2015-predictions-for-2014-postseason-teams/

[jaysfan2014]

Steamer projects Wieters for 4.0 WAR next year. The entirety of the catcher position accounted for 1.9 WAR this year.

 

 

 

Without Cruz, the O's would have still comfortably won the division.

 

 

 

No. Gonzalez is a candidate for the pen. So is Norris. Ubaldo is, as well. All before Gausman gets demoted or moved to the pen.

 

Try again.

 

Wieters won't get that high.. in 2013, he was barely replacement level (0.5 WAR), due to a decline in his defense. He hasn't been close to 4.0 WAR since 2011. And there's also questions how his throwing will be affected post TJS.

Gausman's either in the pen or AAA.. unless they move/non-tender a starter in the offseason. Especially considering how much Jimenez is owed. Considering the high risk several of their starters regress (everyone except Gausman pitched well above their peripherals), they would be advised to trade a starter for some help, as it is unlikely Markakis or Cruz will return, as they will likely command money the O's can't offer due payroll concerns with all the arb raises.)

 

And without Cruz, they still would have won the division. Unfortunately, it is unlikely the O's will be able to retain him, considering teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Mariners, etc. will give him more money.

[Boxcar]

You realize the opposite of just about everything you say actually happens, right?

 

Do you think all the same big market teams that kept JJ Hardy from the Orioles in 2015 are going to keep Cruz away from them too? Oh, what's that you say? Hardy's an Oriole? That can't be right! Better start working on your "the Orioles shouldn't have re-signed Hardy because blah, blah, payroll, blah, blah, regression ********.

 

You should try putting this dipshit on ignore.

 

Also, please stop quoting him. My blood pressure spikes.

[Laika]

You should try putting this dipshit on ignore.

 

Also, please stop quoting him. My blood pressure spikes.

 

So is jaysfan2014 just really dumb, or is he really really dumb?

 

God, this is why I stay in the OT subforum

[jaysfan2014]

Baseball-Reference says Wieters had a WAR of 0.5 in 2013. Somebody there screwed up.. Fangraphs has 2.5 WAR for him.

[jaysfan2014]

Cespedes could be on the market:

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/10/18/hitting-coaches-blamed-for-lack-offense/5I4fqkhNWnM739C7hxNl2O/story.html

 

Apparently, his attitude issues in Oakland are rubbing at the Red Sox poorly as well. Might as well trade him for pitching and put Mookie Betts in the OF.. Mookie needs to be in the lineup.

[baseballsss]

Cespedes could be on the market:

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/10/18/hitting-coaches-blamed-for-lack-offense/5I4fqkhNWnM739C7hxNl2O/story.html

 

Apparently, his attitude issues in Oakland are rubbing at the Red Sox poorly as well. Might as well trade him for pitching and put Mookie Betts in the OF.. Mookie needs to be in the lineup.

 

I don't get it, these guys make millions to play a f***ing game. Why not shut your mouths and and do what your employer says to do.

[jaysblue]

Cespedes could be on the market:

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/10/18/hitting-coaches-blamed-for-lack-offense/5I4fqkhNWnM739C7hxNl2O/story.html

 

Apparently, his attitude issues in Oakland are rubbing at the Red Sox poorly as well. Might as well trade him for pitching and put Mookie Betts in the OF.. Mookie needs to be in the lineup.

 

Cespedes won't reach the levels of his rookie year ever again. His career will follow the path of Chris Young.

[Abomination]

Baseball-Reference says Wieters had a WAR of 0.5 in 2013. Somebody there screwed up.. Fangraphs has 2.5 WAR for him.

 

Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs use different formulas to calculate WAR. You should see a difference on most players.

[Arkadium]

Baseball-Reference and Fangraphs use different formulas to calculate WAR. You should see a difference on most players.

 

It's curious that their formulas are SO different. If a team were basing his contract off of that season he could be earning 5X more using his Fangraphs WAR...

[jays4life19]

I don't think any team bases their contracts off fWAR or rWAR. I'm sure each team ( Or I'd hope so) Has their own way (right or wrong) of accessing true talent.

[Arkadium]

I don't think any team bases their contracts off fWAR or rWAR. I'm sure each team ( Or I'd hope so) Has their own way (right or wrong) of accessing true talent.

 

Did you really feel it was needed to make this point? As if it wasn't already obvious?

 

In any case the baseball analytics community values players this way so my point stands.

[jays4life19]

Did you really feel it was needed to make this point? As if it wasn't already obvious?

 

In any case the baseball analytics community values players this way so my point stands.

 

Considering some of the posters. Yes.

[Orgfiller]

Cespedes won't reach the levels of his rookie year ever again. His career will follow the path of Chris Young.

 

Not sure if you realize that he was better this year than in his rookie year.

[jaysblue]

Not sure if you realize that he was better this year than in his rookie year.

 

This was the first season he played in more than 150 games (152). He only played in 129 games in his rookie year - I'm sure he would have provided a higher WAR in 2012 total if he got close to this years total.

 

His wRC+ has been in decline since his rookie year from 136 in 2012, to 102 and 109 in 2013 and 2014 respectively. I just don't think he's anything special.

[Orgfiller]

This was the first season he played in more than 150 games (152). He only played in 129 games in his rookie year - I'm sure he would have provided a higher WAR in 2012 total if he got close to this years total.

 

His wRC+ has been in decline since his rookie year from 136 in 2012, to 102 and 109 in 2013 and 2014 respectively. I just don't think he's anything special.

I don't think he's a star either, just to make that clear. His defense was apparently horrendous in his rookie year, but of course a one-year sample doesn't really mean much for that, he's improved in that aspect over the last couple of years, largely in part of his strong arm I'm sure.

 

Whatever, I just disagreed with the Chris Young career path, Young was faster and a plus defender, while Cespedes is likely the better hitter with worse defense.

[jaysfan2014]

Red Sox hire Chili Davis as hitting coach.

 

[jaysfan2014]

Regarding Chili Davis, how would you rate him as a hitting coach when he was in Oakland?

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Question and yes I know he is a Scott Boras client. But is Dustin Ackley a free agent? Cots has his contract ending 2014, but I do not see his name on any free agent list for this off season.

 

Would he be a buy low option( with Scott not likely) or option for the jays at second moving forward?

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Not sure like I said his contract on cots just has it ending and does not show arb1,arb2 like others do? His contact he was on was a 4-5 year deal that just ended. Not sure what his status is moving forward, anybody know?

[NorthOf49]

Not sure like I said his contract on cots just has it ending and does not show arb1,arb2 like others do? His contact he was on was a 4-5 year deal that just ended. Not sure what his status is moving forward, anybody know?

Ackley has ~3.5 years of ML service and needs 6 to become a free agent. Now that his contract is up he'll go back into the arbitration process like everyone else does.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Does he have any value as a second basemen moving forward or is he strictly a fielder now?

 

Any idea what he will be worth dollar wise?

[glory]

As far as 2B, since the FA class is pretty weak, they really need to take a chance on a cheap young prospect that might be expendable on another team. Upon some lazy research, the only one I could think of that was even borderline realistic was Cesar Hernandez on the Phillies. Maybe get him and hope he turns into in-prime Maicer.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

2B FA market has some okay names like K Johnson and R Weeks.

 

Better how?

 

Then Goins or Lawrie?

 

Or are we just saying their names are cooler? Lol

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Goins is a 25th man at best, Lawrie's our 3rd baseman , lol....*hiccup*

 

Since when? Hiccup!

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Better how offensively ? But will they not cost a lot more as well? Do they do as well defensively ?

 

Care to expand on your thoughts JFaS ! Thanks

 

But can we even afford either?

 

What do you see them costing?

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

We have neither since Lawrie is always hurt! Hiccup! Lol