Around Baseball 2014

[Orgfiller]

Kevin Kiermaier is an ok defender. http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v35554453/must-c-catch-kiermaiers-dazzling-diving-grab/?c_id=mlb

[jaysfan2014]

I love how you go from using stats like xFIP and SIERA in one post to RBI in the other.

 

Also, despite Pedroia's league average offense this year, he's still projected to be worth almost 5 wins above replacement, so not exactly a team-crippling performance.

 

4.4 WAR as of last check according to Baseball-Reference. Still, losing Jacoby Ellsbury and his 5.8 WAR last offseason still stings a lot, as Jackie Bradley Jr/Mookie Betts/Brock Holt are huge downgrades due to being unproven (Betts), little power and better suited for a corner OF spot (Holt) and an all glove/no bat player (Bradley) who gets most of his WAR value for his defense and would be a 4th outfielder on most contending teams. The Angels had a guy like Bradley in Peter Bourjos.. and he didn't pan out either (and got traded to the Cardinals for David Freese), and doesn't even play regularly in St. Louis.

[jaysfan2014]

Incredible because of how fast he was running... not one of those slow guys that makes up ground by diving.

 

Now this is what Red Sox fans wish Jackie Bradley Jr. was.. a guy who does hit enough to compliment his Gold Glove caliber defense. And good work by Kiermaier. He's made these unbelievable plays all year. We'll see him first hand this weekend.

[baseballsss]

Angels sweep the Red Sox at Fenway in 4 games for the first time since the early 1960s, and the Red Sox were offensively challenged. Anyone thinking Cespedes and Craig are going to save this team doesn't realize that Boston's offensive problems are wide-ranging.

 

-Pedroia's facing his worst season of his career, with significant drops in power, OPS and batting average. There's the main blame right there.. it's surprising nobody actually mentions this.

-Ortiz is having a great season.. but he'd be over 100 RBIs by now if he had more depth in the lineup and Pedroia actually producing. But the real question is how much longer he can keep doing this (he'll be 39 in November).

-Bogaerts, Middlebrooks and Bradley not developing as planned, with Bradley back in AAA and Bogaerts one foot in the door back to Pawtucket. And Middlebrooks has been injured frequently.

-Holt has regressed post All-Star break.. I still feel he's a flash in the pan. Mookie Betts is the Red Sox's future leadoff hitter, not this guy. Holt is better suited as a bench player and super-utility guy.

Pitching is not an issue in Boston.. it's that offense! And Pedroia is the main blame.

 

 

I hate pedroia more than anyone and think he sucks. But all in all hes playing with an injured finger. He'll be fine next year.

[G-Snarls]

That Garrett Richards injury is really gonna hurt the Angels. That division race is going to be tight.

[jaysfan2014]

I hate pedroia more than anyone and think he sucks. But all in all hes playing with an injured finger. He'll be fine next year.

 

That's true. But this decline isn't new.. his offensive numbers have been in decline since 2011:

 

OPS:

2011: .861

2012: .797

2013: .787

2014: .713

 

And because of Pedroia's decline, it may make the Red Sox wary on giving long-term deals to free agents, including Jon Lester:

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/07/23/dustin-pedroia-decline-brings-caution-long-term-contracts/oSTglggIGwSYVWMLmF1OlK/story.html

[G-Snarls]

That's true. But this decline isn't new.. his offensive numbers have been in decline since 2011:

 

OPS:

2011: .861

2012: .797

2013: .787

2014: .713

 

And because of Pedroia's decline, it may make the Red Sox wary on giving long-term deals to free agents, including Jon Lester:

 

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2014/07/23/dustin-pedroia-decline-brings-caution-long-term-contracts/oSTglggIGwSYVWMLmF1OlK/story.html

 

Well it probably already did, given how they let Ellsbury walk. His absence REALLY hurt them this year, but the Yankees will have some regretful years on that contract later on. It's tough as a GM when there's always some team willing to give 1-2 years too many to a player you really want.

[jaysblue]

Anyone else really enjoying the Royals? Of all the teams still in the picture, I'm kinda rooting for them.

 

Has Alex Gordon been the best player in baseball this year so far?

 

I'm doing a dynasty salary dispersal draft and Gordon is still on the board with a 12.5 M cap hit in 2015. I know in fantasy he isn't that sexy, though I'm debating whether I should take him or not.

[KingKat]

Well it probably already did, given how they let Ellsbury walk. His absence REALLY hurt them this year, but the Yankees will have some regretful years on that contract later on. It's tough as a GM when there's always some team willing to give 1-2 years too many to a player you really want.

 

Yep, you basically know that you have to overpay at the back end to get elite production at the front end. You just hope that a) a major injury or sudden decline doesn't rob you of the good seasons at the front and that the back end is still productive enough that the players is still rosterable despite being overpaid. There might be the odd long term contract that returns value from A to Z but it's not a realistic expectation.

[KingKat]

Has Alex Gordon been the best player in baseball this year so far?

 

 

If you haven't read Dave Cameron's answer to that very question, you probably should.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-lets-talk-about-alex-gordon/

 

It doesn't discuss fantasy implications but it gives you a good idea of where his true talent lies in a general sense.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

The Royals seem to place a huge importance on defense so it's nice to see them being rewarded for that.

 

Best UZR as a team by a fairly wide margin over the last few years.

[jaysblue]

If you haven't read Dave Cameron's answer to that very question, you probably should.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/so-lets-talk-about-alex-gordon/

 

It doesn't discuss fantasy implications but it gives you a good idea of where his true talent lies in a general sense.

 

Thanks for the article. Just got back from Europe so catching up what I've missed the last three weeks. I know his defense is golden.

[G-Snarls]

Has Alex Gordon been the best player in baseball this year so far?

 

I'm doing a dynasty salary dispersal draft and Gordon is still on the board with a 12.5 M cap hit in 2015. I know in fantasy he isn't that sexy, though I'm debating whether I should take him or not.

 

According to fWAR, yes

[BTS]

The Royals seem to place a huge importance on defense so it's nice to see them being rewarded for that.

 

Best UZR as a team by a fairly wide margin over the last few years.

 

The Royals are weird. They do a lot of pretty decent things, but then they make decisions like Trading Myers for Shields and Davis, giving Melky away, or giving Jeff Francoeur a 3-year extension.

[GD]

The Royals are weird. They do a lot of pretty decent things, but then they make decisions like Trading Myers for Shields and Davis, giving Melky away, or giving Jeff Francoeur a 3-year extension.

 

Well, the Myers trade was like the Marlins trade in that sure, it was pretty dumb, but at the very least it's definitely gonna make your team better in the short term.

[shortstop]

Royals have a 28 year playoff drought, longest in the league...Royals made a decision that they could compete for a playoff spot & they were much more competitive last year than in years past & things have been swell this year thus far...

[jays_fever]

Has Alex Gordon been the best player in baseball this year so far?

 

I'm doing a dynasty salary dispersal draft and Gordon is still on the board with a 12.5 M cap hit in 2015. I know in fantasy he isn't that sexy, though I'm debating whether I should take him or not.

 

If you take him just plan on keeping him, because the offers you'll receive for him will be a joke

[jaysfan2014]

Red Sox faves for Rusney Castillo. Could this mean JBJ is heading out the door?

 

http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/08/22/sources-red-sox-seen-as-favorites-to-land-rusney-castillo/

 

Their desperation to get Castillo may be a sign they're souring on Jackie Bradley Jr. being a part of the future. Don't be surprised if JBJ gets put on the trade block this offseason if Castillo signs with the Red Sox.

[jaysfan2014]

Say goodbye to JBJ in Boston:

 

Jesse SanchezVerified account ‏@JesseSanchezMLB

 

Source: Cuban outfielder Rusney Castillo on track for record-setting 6-year, $72 million deal with #RedSox.

 

$12M/year for an unproven talent who has never played in MLB? And yet, they cheap out on Jon Lester who will likely sign elsewhere after those insulting offers Boston gave him of 4/$70-80M.. when he'll get 9 figures from the Cubs, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, etc.

[KingKat]

Well, the Myers trade was like the Marlins trade in that sure, it was pretty dumb, but at the very least it's definitely gonna make your team better in the short term.

 

It's a better version of the Marlins trade in that a) it's been more effective at keeping the Royals in the race (and yes I realize divisional alignment plays into that but trades shouldn't just be evaluated in a vaccuum, you have to look at context) and both teams sacrificed long term assetts but at least the Royals' e financial commitments for Shields and Davis are reasonable compared to Reyes et al. Both trades are questionable but I'd say it's the more defensible of the two.

[GD]

It's a better version of the Marlins trade in that a) it's been more effective at keeping the Royals in the race (and yes I realize divisional alignment plays into that but trades shouldn't just be evaluated in a vaccuum, you have to look at context) and both teams sacrificed long term assetts but at least the Royals' e financial commitments for Shields and Davis are reasonable compared to Reyes et al. Both trades are questionable but I'd say it's the more defensible of the two.

 

I really just meant it as simply as I put it lol, you're absolutely right. Also, I see you do this a lot and I know English isn't your first language (even though you're better at it than me?): it's assets, not assetts

[jaysfan2014]

It's a better version of the Marlins trade in that a) it's been more effective at keeping the Royals in the race (and yes I realize divisional alignment plays into that but trades shouldn't just be evaluated in a vaccuum, you have to look at context) and both teams sacrificed long term assetts but at least the Royals' e financial commitments for Shields and Davis are reasonable compared to Reyes et al. Both trades are questionable but I'd say it's the more defensible of the two.

 

Of course, it's still dependent on whether Myers develops in Tampa, and whether the Royals make the playoffs..

[jaysblue]

If you take him just plan on keeping him, because the offers you'll receive for him will be a joke

 

Like lowball offers?

[jays_fever]

Like lowball offers?

 

Like Mark Buehrle type offers, or some random A ball players that youve never heard of

[TheHurl]

Expect the Sox to make a push for Stanton. Cespedes, Craig, Castillo, Victorino, Betts, Holt, Nava, JBJ and tons of young pitching (and loaded up on more recently).

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see Cespedes, JBJ/Betts and De La Rosa (or maybe an even younger Latino arm) for instance, go for Stanton.

 

Not sure why, but I get the feeling Cespedes isn't long for the Red Sox.

 

Red Sox have enough high end young talent that they may not need to throw in Cespedes but Cespedes, Swihart, Betts (and move to 2B) and a pitcher makes sense (with the Marlins throwing relievers and bench players back). The Marlins flip Cespedes if they don't compete.

[jaysfan2014]

Red Sox have enough high end young talent that they may not need to throw in Cespedes but Cespedes, Swihart, Betts (and move to 2B) and a pitcher makes sense (with the Marlins throwing relievers and bench players back). The Marlins flip Cespedes if they don't compete.

 

Marlins aren't trading Stanton anytime soon, especially with the possibility the Marlins could contend next season. And the Marlins will want something a lot better than what the Sox have on the farm if they're trading Stanton, preferably a power hitting OF. Swihart, Betts, and their pitchers won't cut it, especially when Miami has enough young pitching prospects in the system.

 

And Cespedes is a free agent in 2015, and not the kind of player Miami wants. They want MLB ready and controllable talent for Stanton, not expiring contracts.

 

In addition, the player's union and Rob Manfred will likely block any Stanton trade, because of what happened in 2012 after the Marlins had their fire sale, likely pushing for the Marlins to ACTUALLY make an attempt to resign Stanton.

[burlingtonbandit]

Adding in Swihart doesn't make sense. That's an overpay beyond an overpay, and the Sox have been short-terming catching options waiting for Vazquez and Swihart to develop. I don't see them moving a catcher.

 

I would think, with the OF glut, they would perhaps want to shed Cespedes, rather than "having" to include him.

 

Its going to take an overpay beyond an overpay to pry Stanton from Miami most likely though.

[jaysfan2014]

You forgot to give the Sox the memo that they're supposed to be wary of long-term deals, and not giving out 5-year deals, or longer-than-3-year deals.

 

Free Agent deals of veterans over 30 I meant.

[jaysfan2014]

Its going to take an overpay beyond an overpay to pry Stanton from Miami most likely though.

 

Definitely. It'll require someone like Kris Bryant, Joey Gallo, Javier Baez, Joc Pederson, etc., along with multiple other pieces, to trade Stanton. Boston has a good farm, but it's mostly pitching, and not a lot of bats after Betts.

[TheHurl]

Adding in Swihart doesn't make sense. That's an overpay beyond an overpay, and the Sox have been short-terming catching options waiting for Vazquez and Swihart to develop. I don't see them moving a catcher.

 

probably depends on who else is in on the deals, overpay might be needed to land Stanton. How much interference Loria has is a factor too (I think we know by now that will probably happen), if he's involved likely the hispanic angle will be more prevalent. Marlins biggest weakness is their middle infield (well infield in general), and not much help in the future (although I like the Greensboro middle of Romero and Bohn) and they have no catching future (I like Realmuto but he's a back-up). They'd be better off targeting Swihart or Vazquez ahead of Cespedes.