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Mark Ellis inks 1 year deal with the Cards

fatcowxlive

By fatcowxlive
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
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I can say for certainty that no one, no matter how good their defense has survived as a major league regular with a 13/1 K to BB rate. Without increasing the BB-Rate and/or decreasing the K-rate his bat just can't survive 500 PA's. Unless of course he's the greatest 2B defensively ever and I can tell you for certain that he isn't. I'm a big Goins fan, probably rate him higher than most of the prospect hounds of the board do. However, I'm realistic that he's best in a defensive back up role.

 

What I'm trying to say is that he's got to be historically good defensively to keep up his 2 win pace that he put up last year. That's asking a lot.

 

Goins showed pretty consistent walk rates in the minors, so I doubt we'll see that kind of ratio over the course of a season.

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kgm1 First Round Pick

kgm1

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I thought Ellis might be the only upgrade we had a shot at being old but NJH is right ,why would you come here if you had ANY other options . Sitting on the bench in St Lou with a shot at winning is far superior to playing on Turf in Canada on a team as bad as the jays have been .

 

I don't know how AA can be blamed for no one wanting to wreck their legs on carpet covered cement . Hell no one wants to go to Seattle and they have a great stadium with Grass an in the US .

saskjayfan Dunedin Blue Jays

saskjayfan

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I can say for certainty that no one, no matter how good their defense has survived as a major league regular with a 13/1 K to BB rate. Without increasing the BB-Rate and/or decreasing the K-rate his bat just can't survive 500 PA's. Unless of course he's the greatest 2B defensively ever and I can tell you for certain that he isn't. I'm a big Goins fan, probably rate him higher than most of the prospect hounds of the board do. However, I'm realistic that he's best in a defensive back up role.

 

What I'm trying to say is that he's got to be historically good defensively to keep up his 2 win pace that he put up last year. That's asking a lot.

 

what are you talking about...k rate...bb rate....he has 114 major league plate appearances....that's not a statistically significant sample size so how are you coming to offensive conclusions? He didn't have a 13 to 1 strikeout k to bb rate in the minors....it was just over 2 to 1....

 

His defense won't save runs on the bench...put him on the field....see if his offense develops...save the money and put it into pitching..

GeorgiaPeach First Round Pick

GeorgiaPeach

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I still think he'll hook up with the A's for a middle. They have Lowrie, Callapso, Punto, Sogard, Parrino and Nakajima all on the 40. Miles Head probably moving up to AA this year. They also have one too many major league starters with Kazmir, Gray, Straily, Parker, Griffin and Milone. An overpay for Milone and Sogard?

 

And in typical Jays fan fashion they'll steal the Rally Specs craze and pretend they invented it.

Fearthedoc First Round Pick

Fearthedoc

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Personally I'd be happy with guys like Buehrle - 32 starts per year, 6 innings per start and 4.5 ERA.

 

You won't win a playoff series with those guys. We need at least one other SP2 type (SP3 at least).

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
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My point was that saying his defense was historical on such a small sample size is similar to saying his ratio was historically bad too. When I make my assessment, keep in mind I watched most Buffalo games too. I like the D, I just don't think his bat can play at a level for his D to make a difference. In the Jays situation, replacement level is an upgrade.

 

As for saying keeping him on the bench won't help. Putting him in for situations where he can be successful, such as against right-handers without a superior fastball or later inning situations against relievers that don't have a good change-up. That'll help him be a successful guy...Jays just need the right guy to pair him up with. That's the hard part.

 

It's hard to tell because AAA stringing is awful, but from the minors to the majors he's actually swinging at the same amount of pitches, somehow he's swinging at less inside the zone and almost three times as many outside of the zone. That's not a good sign. As I said stringing in the minors is awful, so I don't believe the 11% O-Swing is close to correct.

TheHurl Toronto Blue Jays

TheHurl

Site Manager
Posted
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I can't be the only one that's bothered by him putting "...." after every few words, right?

 

I'm an extreme ellipsis abuser, so I can't say a thing.

saskjayfan Dunedin Blue Jays

saskjayfan

Old-Timey Member
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K's stabilize at 100 PA

 

I'll bet my left nut if goins has more than 300 plate appearances next year that his k to bb rate is less than 13 to 1.....i'll go 1000 bucks on 10 to 1 with more than 300 plate appearances...

 

what do you say?

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
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I'll bet my left nut if goins has more than 300 plate appearances next year that his k to bb rate is less than 13 to 1.....i'll go 1000 bucks on 10 to 1 with more than 300 plate appearances...

 

what do you say?

 

if I had more than $5 and some pocket lint I'd be intrigued

 

i know JFaS doesn't bet though

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
No one should take that bet lol. But yes, I don't bet.

 

I wouldn't take 10-1 but a 6.5-1 over/under seems reasonable.

 

I only make extremely low risk for fun bets. I bet BTS that Drabek's peak would be higher than Stults' and I still can't sit down properly.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
How about looking at Trout's 2011 September / October with his 39 wRC+? I mean, if we're going to be derping with all these ridiculous cherry-picked SSS stats ...

 

I think it's safe to assume that 33 is closer to Goins' expected true talent than 39 was to the #1 prospect in the league's expected true talent.

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Except that Goins is actually a non guy with a s***** bat.........He's no mike trout

 

Of course he isn't (but he's not a 33 wRC+ guy either). Cherry picking the stat on Trout is just as valid as doing it on Goins. They're both ridiculous.

GD MVP

GD

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Of course he isn't (but he's not a 33 wRC+ guy either). Cherry picking the stat on Trout is just as valid as doing it on Goins. They're both ridiculous.

 

They're both ridiculous, but not equally ridiculous.

 

Saying Goins' bad September means that he's a bad hitter would be stupid, but I think King was saying that Goins' September was just representative of the fact that he really can't f***ing hit, as supported by more evidence that reeeeeaaalllllyyyyy doesn't need to be rehashed.

Angrioter MVP

Angrioter

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'll bet my left nut if goins has more than 300 plate appearances next year that his k to bb rate is less than 13 to 1.....i'll go 1000 bucks on 10 to 1 with more than 300 plate appearances...

 

what do you say?

 

Easy bet my lovely hermano; Very likely that you win the bet but...............Goins is a below average hitter no doubts

Angrioter MVP

Angrioter

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
How about looking at Trout's 2011 September / October with his 39 wRC+? I mean, if we're going to be derping with all these ridiculous cherry-picked SSS stats ...

 

Except that Goins is actually a non guy with a s***** bat.........He's no mike trout

 

lol

It's about talent/Skills/Tools

Abomination Buffalo Bisons

Abomination

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
They're both ridiculous, but not equally ridiculous.

 

Saying Goins' bad September means that he's a bad hitter would be stupid, but I think King was saying that Goins' September was just representative of the fact that he really can't f***ing hit

 

I said they were both just as valid a position based on a SSS, not equally ridiculous. Regardless, the point is that pointing to a guy's stats in a (VERY) small sample size is idiotic, as you can find examples of horrible stretches for even the best player on the planet. It's just stupid to keep repeatedly bringing it up and laughing at him for it, while trying to draw a conclusion off of it. Sorry, bit of a pet peeve for me.

Anemic0ffense First Round Pick

Anemic0ffense

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Pretty sure everyone would say that Goins is an MLB ready glove/benchman... The problem is handing him the starting job when we're supposed to contend... Shocked that this is still being argued.

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