Rockies sign Boone Logan 3Ys/16.5M ....Time to trade Cecil

[Angrioter]

JonHeymanCBS now

boone logan gets $16.5M fr 3 yrs. #rockies

[G-Snarls]

How much is Cecil expected to get in arbitration??

 

(of course, more likely AA gets a contract signed and avoids arb if we keep him)

[jaysblue]

It's just so irrational signing middle relievers to 3 year deals.

[CHRIS]

Hopefully when AA mentions that he's flexible on the 5 year limit, he's not referring to a reliever.

[Angrioter]

Logan HR/FB

2012 - 11%

2013 - 20%

[Brenner]

No rush to trade Cecil, he is not a FA until 2017. There is no point extending him beyond that until maybe the all-star break before he walks, never know if his arm falls off before then and if he has proven to be a stud Lefty RP then fine give him his $5 mil/year its ok to pay a couple of pen guys.

[G-Snarls]

[G-Snarls]

I wish we matched up better in trade with the Yankees, but they have exactly the same needs (C, 2B, SP) as us PLUS now needs in the bullpen

[Angrioter]

No rush to trade Cecil, he is not a FA until 2017. There is no point extending him beyond that until maybe the all-star break before he walks, never know if his arm falls off before then and if he has proven to be a stud Lefty RP then fine give him his $5 mil/year its ok to pay a couple of pen guys.

 

There lies the Cecil's value.

[Frenchsoup]

For a team that was so freaking terrible last year they have a lot of sell high players. Rasmus,Lind,Sierra,Mark B, and the entire bullpen lets hope AA sells some of those pieces.

[Brenner]

There lies the Cecil's value.

 

True but it remains to be seen if other teams are willing to trade value for these guys, for low budget teams he'd more valuable but a big budget team would probably rather just sign these FA guys for $5 mil than part with prospects. Even for the low budget team, there is still limited surplus value on a good Lefty RP on a cheap contract.

[The Cats Ass]

How is this Cecil's first year of Arb? He's pitched 5 years for us...

[Vdubfan]

He's pitched IN 5 different seasons for us, but has split time in the minors in those seasons as well. You don't accrue service time down there, even if you opened the season on the big league roster.

[Stangstag]

Im hoping for Cecil+ to Seattle for Ackley

[G-Snarls]

Im hoping for Cecil+ to Seattle for Ackley

 

Hells yes

[Angrioter]

How often do LOOGYs get matchup edge?

 

By David Schoenfield

In this era of bullpen specialization and rising salaries, it's perhaps no surprise that even LOOGYs -- shorthand for left-handed one-out guys -- are starting to get handsomely rewarded. The Rockies just signed Boone Logan to a three-year, $16.5 million contract; earlier, the Giants re-signed Javier Lopez to a three-year, $13 million contract.

 

Those two are pretty close to meeting the definition of a LOOGY. Over the past three seasons, Logan has faced 583 batters while pitching 136 innings in 205 appearances; Lopez has faced 536 batters while pitching 128.1 innings in 209 games.

 

On a per-inning basis, consider that Cliff Lee -- the highest-paid starting pitcher at $25 million (well, Johan Santana made more but was injured) faced 876 batters while pitching 222.2 innings. Lee made just over $112,000 per inning; if Logan pitches 136 innings again over the next three seasons, he'll make $121,000 per inning.

 

So teams -- or at least the Rockies and Giants -- are arguably showing that on the free-agent market they value a good LOOGY similarly to an elite starting pitcher. The money is spread out over more years but a reliever like Logan or Lopez doesn't come close to facing the number of batters in three years that a 200-inning starter faces in one. The justification with the money is that their outs are generally more important than Lee's, coming in the late innings of close games, often to get an important platoon matchup that the starting pitcher or a right-handed reliever wouldn't have.

 

First off, it's important to establish that the platoon advantage does exist. Totals from 2013:

 

All relievers vs. all batters: .243/.316/.375

Lefty relievers vs. all batters: .238/.315/.365

Lefty relievers vs. righty batters: .249/.333/.390

Lefty relievers vs. lefty batters: .225/.292/.335

Righty relievers vs. lefty batters: .248/.327/.390

 

In general, it does pay to go for the platoon advantage, and the biggest edge to be gained -- no surprise -- is left-handed relievers versus left-handed batters.

 

On an individual basis, of course, the matchups can be even more extreme. But how often do you get that matchup?

 

Over the past three seasons, 49 left-handed relievers have thrown at least 80 innings. Those 49 pitchers had the platoon advantage, on average, 44.3 percent of the time. Here are the lefty relievers (among our group of 49) who faced the highest percentage of left-handed batters over the past three seasons:

 

Randy Choate: 70.1 percent

Boone Logan: 57.6 percent

Wesley Wright: 57.3 percent

Javier Lopez: 55.8 percent

Joe Thatcher: 54.7 percent

 

Phil Coke was the only other guy over 50 percent. Not too surprisingly, the reliever who faced the lowest percentage of left-handed batters was Aroldis Chapman at 27.4 percent.

 

Choate is the outlier here -- his splits are so extreme that his managers use him primarily when they know a pinch-hitter won't be used. Otherwise, you can see that even relievers like Logan and Lopez who are spotted carefully still face a large percentage of right-handed batters. In Logan's case, he's faced 336 left-handed batters over the past three years -- 112 per season, or about four per week.

 

Considering you're not really paying him for his ability to get out right-handed batters, that $5.5 million annual salary is earned by his production against those 112 left-handed batters. He better do a good job of it, especially since not all of those appearances are going to come in potential game-deciding situations.

 

In Logan's case, here's the catch: He's not really anything special as a LOOGY. Of those 49 relievers, he was 40th in OPS allowed against left-handed batters over the three seasons. (Lopez was fifth.) It's possible that the Rockies do envision a larger role for Logan -- he's allowed a .250/.344/.409 line against right-handers, not awful -- so maybe he'll end up pitching more innings and extracting more value out of his contract.

 

There is obvious value in having a solid LOOGY in the pen, but it seems the Rockies overpaid for their new one.

 

 

On a per-inning basis, consider that Cliff Lee -- the highest-paid starting pitcher at $25 million (well, Johan Santana made more but was injured) faced 876 batters while pitching 222.2 innings. Lee made just over $112,000 per inning; if Logan pitches 136 innings again over the next three seasons, he'll make $121,000 per inning.

[Nox]

it's just so irrational signing relievers to 3 year deals.

 

ftfy

[Angrioter]

Time to trade Cecil

[Grant77]

Im hoping for Cecil+ to Seattle for Ackley

 

Yes please. Even Loup or Janssen in the right deal.

[z3r0s]

Ackley would be a nice get. Solid defensively with some nice upside. I really think he's the perfect fit.

[Grant77]

Ackley would be a nice get. Solid defensively with some nice upside. I really think he's the perfect fit.

He may also be the perfect solution to the number 2 spot in the lineup. Lefty bat with strong OBP skills.

 

Reyes

Ackley

Bautista

Encarnacion

Rasmus

Lawrie

Lind

Cabrera

Navarro

[Abomination]

He may also be the perfect solution to the number 2 spot in the lineup. Lefty bat with strong OBP skills.

 

Reyes

Ackley

Bautista

Encarnacion

Rasmus

Lawrie

Lind

Cabrera

Navarro

 

I agree that Ackley would be an excellent option, but it seems from reports that Seattle would rather keep him. I'd still be thrilled to get the "consolation prize" of Franklin though

[Grant77]

That's what the reports say, but I suspect they are posturing. They have lefty bats at 2B, 3B, SS, LF, and RF (Cano, Seager, Miller, Morrison, Saunders). It just doesn't make sense that they would keep him, especially if they sign Choo or Cruz, but then again it is the Mariners...

[LunchBox]

I like Ackley's skill set and see him as a viable target but in no world should he be hitting second.

 

Reyes

Bautista

EE

Rasmus/Lind

Lawrie

Lind/Rasmus

Melky

Navarro

Ackley

 

Ideally Bautista probably isn't a two hitter, but I can't abide scrubs batting ahead of good hitters for the sake of conventional "produckshun" spots. On this team he should be the two hitter and there's really nothing wrong with that.

 

A case could be made for either Lind or Rasmus hitting fourth and sixth respectively. Regardless of how Lind and Rasmus are arranged, there's a dire need for a RH bench player with strong numbers vs LHP. Somebody mentioned Ruggiano a few days ago, that would have been an excellent fit.

 

There's a lot of switch hitters on the roster, I don't care to look up the splits but I'm fairly certain Navarro is the only one with a significantly better side (vs LHP). Overall there's nice balance to the lineup if Ackley and a right handed PH were picked up.

[GD]

Reyes

Rasmus

Bautista

Encarnacion

Lind

Lawrie

Melky

Ackley

Navarro

[LunchBox]

I don't hate that lineup vs RHP, except maybe for Navarro clogging up the basepaths when he actually manages to get his fat ass on.

 

The problem is vs LHP, Rasmus loses the power that makes the K/BB look acceptable to hit in that position.

 

Edit: After some additional thought, Lind really needs a full time platoon partner, he provides no defensive value so there's absolutely no excuse to let him flail away vs LHP.

[Grant77]

Lineups are really going to depend on how you project each player. Ackley can hit with 2 strikes and give Reyes time to do his thing and I would expect an OBP above .350, in which case he is our best option for the 2 spot. If you expect something more like last year then your lineup makes more sense.

[LunchBox]

2011 Ackley .273/.348/.417 would be best suited to hit behind Reyes. All things being equal I'd probably still prefer Bautista's projected .258/.370/.507 line hitting second, but that would hardly be optimal. At the very least I'd say start the season with Bautista hitting second and wait for Ackley to force his way atop the lineup.

 

Of course all this speculation is totally unnecessary because Ryan f***ing Goins and his roughly .600 OPS is apparently going to occupy that roster spot lol

[Grant77]

The only reason I'm still awake is because I have nightmares about Ryan Goins hitting .210 all year...

[LunchBox]

lol I know what you mean. I puked in my mouth a little when I wrote that. Then I went and looked it up, Alcides Escobar and Darwin Barney both posted sub .600 OPS but were elite defenders at SS and 2B respectively. By the time Ryan Goins got called up last year, I had long since started watching actual good baseball, so I can't say for sure but I doubt he is that class of defender.