Oliver projections now up on Fangraphs

[Dr. Dinger]

Just in case we're all sick of using Steamer as the bible.

[Nox]

Just in case we're all sick of using Steamer as the bible.

 

Oliver loves it some Giancarlo.

[Dr. Dinger]

Oliver believes in Chris Davis (and Khris Davis). Seems it doesn't regress as heavily as Streamer.

[TRM]

Oliver loves it some Giancarlo.

 

So does everybody

[Jays]

Steamer has Lawrie at 3.7 WAR and Oliver has him at 4.1. Fingers crossed.

[Angrioter]

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=431&d=1386262041

 

[Nox]

So they've projected every position player at 600 PAs?

 

That's stupid/lazy.

[G-Snarls]

Steamer has Lawrie at 3.7 WAR and Oliver has him at 4.1. Fingers crossed.

 

Please let it happen

[Nox]

Remaining agnostic on playing time is such a cop out.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's probably still beta projections. Steamer dumps SPs into

IP buckets as well, 198 (max), 192, 189, 182, 65 IP for closers, etc. Surely there is a more elegant way to project IP.

[Dr. Dinger]

Like for example, how do you project Shields for 192 IP when he hasn't gone under 200 in 7 years and has been under 215 only once?

[Nox]

Like for example, how do you project Shields for 192 IP when he hasn't gone under 200 in 7 years and has been under 215 only once?

 

RTTM, aging.

 

Almost no pitcher should be projected for 200 innings.

[Angrioter]

Like for example, how do you project Shields for 192 IP when he hasn't gone under 200 in 7 years and has been under 215 only once?

 

Project a different amount of innings to each pitcher is much work.

Great job steamer.

[Dr. Dinger]

RTTM, aging.

 

Almost no pitcher should be projected for 200 innings.

 

Well if it's "almost no pitcher," then if it's anyone it's Shields. My primary point being, shouldn't they maybe take a 3 year avg and RTTM that? Rather than just dumping him into a tier.

[Dr. Dinger]

Kevin Kiermaier projected for 4.3 WAR with a 88 wRC+. How do they project defense this high with minor league numbers?

 

I'm pretty sure Steamer had Burch Smith at 200 Ks the first week it was released, FWIW. They'll be refined as the off-season goes on.

[Dr. Dinger]

Well if it's "almost no pitcher," then if it's anyone it's Shields. My primary point being, shouldn't they maybe take a 3 year avg and RTTM that? Rather than just dumping him into a tier.

 

Which it appears that Oliver does (Shields @ 233 IP). Either that or Oliver is just some dude guestimating figures in his basement.

[Jays]

Sano 24th in the league with 4.5 WAR

 

You made me look up Sano to see if it was true. Can't believe it is. Thought you mistyped Cano at first.

[Dr. Dinger]

That's a pretty cool tool for contract evaluations and dynasty owners.

[Nox]

My primary point being, shouldn't they maybe take a 3 year avg and RTTM that? Rather than just dumping him into a tier.

 

Yah, that's definitely better. But I think even with Shields' a 3 yr weighted avg regressed properly would take him to around 200 innings. Maybe slightly under.

 

Lol @ 230 IP.

[Nox]

Really though, projections more than 2 years our are all but useless. Uncertainty grows to levels where you might as well just project everyone to be average.

 

Pretty sure what Oliver is doing here is very wrong. I feel like he's feeding his 5th year projection his 2nd 3rd and 4th year projection and treating it like it's true past data. You can't do that.

[Nox]

It tells be Bogaerts will be a 5-6 win player by age-24 so I'm pretty OK with it.

 

As a Bogaerts dynasty owner the idea of that does make my pants tighten.

[Nox]

Pujols:

2.1

1.5

1.0

0.3

-0.4

 

[KingKat]

Which it appears that Oliver does (Shields @ 233 IP). Either that or Oliver is just some dude guestimating figures in his basement.

 

Yep. Just some dude name Oliver.

[flafson]

Oliver has Goins on 1.1 WAR

[Dr. Dinger]

Cano:

4.6

4.3

4.0

3.6

3.0

 

Based on that he'd be worth $25M AAV over the next 5 years.

[flafson]

And Kratz on 3.1 WAR, maybe i shouldn't count too much into those numbers...

[Nox]

Oliver thinks we have 4 league-average catchers. Does anyone else find C projections under both Steamer and Oliver to be really optimistic, or am I just being dumn.

 

29, well above average true talent catchers? Yah....

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=oliver&team=0&players=0

[Angrioter]

who the f*** is brett frantini and why does oliver think he's better than matt wieters and yan gomes?

 

iftfy

[Laika]

So Oliver is dumb? Ok. Good to know.

[Dr. Dinger]

So Oliver is dumb? Ok. Good to know.

 

Or you could use it for established big leaguers like its intended and ignore the obvious bugs until the projections are finalized.