If Marcus Stroman Is A Reliever, Was He Worth Where He Was Drafted?

[8D]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/if-stroman-is-a-reliever-was-he-worth-where-he-was-drafted

 

I'm surprised this hasn't been posted yet, so I thought I'd post it here.

The author does a fantastic job summarizing everything, imo, I agree with what he says.

Interesting to note is that I thought there would have been more very successful players out of the first round drafted as RP, but they still have a high rate of players making it to the majors. Pretty easy to grade, good frame, mechanics, makeup, two or more plus+ pitches.

I think AA should hang on to Stroman because if he makes it to the majors, his value is going to get a lot higher.

Once he establishes himself as a player, then I think you should trade him. That's probably where his highest value is going to peak at.

I adore shorter players, but I just don't think a guy 5'9" can handle the 200IP+ workload for more than maybe... two to four years at peak levels?

I just can't see it happening. A frame like that going through the rigors for more than five years without breaking down too much. That's not to say that it can't happen, but he would have to some kind of freak of nature and maybe aided with some good s*** from VictorConte.

Close enough height to Lincecum, but Stroman seems more built and doesn't have freak mechanics, so tack on a couple more years as comp?

Interesting topic.

[8D]

Vid on him pitching while at Boston College. But just watch the beginning and his long toss, lol.

[Ziggyy108]

trade him in a package for price

[The Cats Ass]

He's built like a tank. Tanks are tough. Tanks don't break down.

[G-Snarls]

I think he'll be fine as a starter. His delivery is comfortable. Frankly, I don't see why people are so worried about it. Fewer guys under 6' make dominant pitchers I'll grant, but I don't see where durability is a concern. He's a well built athlete. Tall skinny guys with crazy deliveries (Sale) are who should probably worry.

[Rotator]

Give him the chance to start, nothing he has done on the field says he can't continue to be an effective starter. The best pitcher of my lifetime (Pedro Martinez) was about stromans height but less physically developed and he was pretty good i'd say. he too was told he was too small to start, think he did alright. Not saying stroman is the next pedro but he doesn't have to be to prove shorter pitchers can be starters and have effective careers. Not every pitcher needs to put up 5+ war seasons every year to be considered a successful draft choice.

[KingKat]

I find the whole question about Stroman's durability as a starter kind of a moot point. Maybe he hits a wall after a few seasons like Kazmir and Lincecum did but if he does that doesn't really matter. What matters is whether he perfoms well in the years of control the Jays acquired by drafting him. Maybe durability becomes a concern if and when you have extension talks but if he perfoms well enough that you're even considering an extension, it means you absolutely nailed the pick.

[Dr. Dinger]

I think it's less a question of durability and more a question of long-term fastball effectiveness related to his release point. The less height, the less plane (which is crucial to FB effectiveness). A fastball released at 6 feet is considerably flatter and easier to track than a fastball released at 7 or 8 feet. You can dominate in college and the minors on sheer velo but major league hitters are far better at adjusting. Also, he may throw mid-90s, but the velocity is functionally less than a tall guy who throws mid-90s due to stride length, since the distance travelled to the plate is further the shorter the pitcher is. He will need to develop a viable 3rd pitch or he will get hammered on subsequent trips through the lineup. Luckily, his slider is a legit out pitch. I think he can be a starter but I don't think he'll go 6+ IP on a regular basis.

[Maine Jays]

I couldn't care less if he's no taller than a hobbit as long as he takes the ball every fifth day and throws strikes (yes, I'm talking to you Morrow)

[TwistedLogic]

I've got a good feeling about this guy.