FanGraphs Crowd: The Top 47 Free Agents

[GD]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-47-free-agents/

 

Fangraphs takes a shot at crowdsourcing the top free agents, which excluded Jhonny Peralta for whatever reason. These are probably decent reference points to use when thinking about if we can afford to sign any of these guys. They were pretty accurate last year IIRC.

[G-Snarls]

Good stuff, thanks

[G-Snarls]

Shin-Soo Choo at 5/80 looks like a bargain.

 

Sure does

 

Won't happen

[G-Snarls]

Best comment, re Fernando Rodney:

 

Representative Comment

“All of these ‘proven closers’ are going to end up way overpaid like they always do. I fear there will need to be another few Brandon Leagues before people start to learn their lesson.”

[G-Snarls]

No, A.J. Pierzynski's is better:

 

Representative Comment

“[Removed by Administrator.]“

 

LOL. These Fangraphs guys can be very funny.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

How is Bartolo Colon 45th on this list?

 

He's obv helped by the big park in Oakland and would probably see a big regression in the AL East but he's been playing on one year deals for a long time now and he keeps giving crazy value back to the teams that signed him.

 

Not a lot of value out there but I could see some of the below becoming steals for us:

 

2/12 for Colon

2/16 for Ruiz or 1/7 for Pierzynski

2/15 for Arroyo

2/15 for Marlon Byrd

[Sammy225]

How is Bartolo Colon 45th on this list?

 

He's obv helped by the big park in Oakland and would probably see a big regression in the AL East but he's been playing on one year deals for a long time now and he keeps giving crazy value back to the teams that signed him.

 

Not a lot of value out there but I could see some of the below becoming steals for us:

 

2/12 for Colon

2/16 for Ruiz or 1/7 for Pierzynski

2/15 for Arroyo

2/15 for Marlon Byrd

 

Might as well bring Doc back if nothing else it will appease the casuals lol.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Colon throws pretty much nothing but fastballs. He would get lit up at Rogers Centre.

 

Giving Colon a multi year deal at 5-7M a year literally has no downside to it. The guy throws strikes and can give you innings.

 

(Colon's FB was the 8th best FB in baseball according to FG for qualifiers btw).

[theblujay]

This is the least excited I've been for an offseason in years. I just can't see an outcome where it ends well. Either we do nothing and suck again next year or overpay for crap and suck again next year.

[DuckDuckGose]

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/fangraphs-crowd-the-top-47-free-agents/

 

Fangraphs takes a shot at crowdsourcing the top free agents, which excluded Jhonny Peralta for whatever reason. These are probably decent reference points to use when thinking about if we can afford to sign any of these guys. They were pretty accurate last year IIRC.

 

IMO Choo, McCann and Garza would be the dream off-season. I wanted to know how much it would cost for all three and where that would put the Jays' payroll. Thought I'd share;

 

Choo + McCann + Garza

 

REAL - $46.5M

FAKE - $41.7M

 

'14 REAL Payroll - $177.5M (using $121M for Lind's and Janssen's options plus the current salary committed to 14 players + $10M for Cecil, Rogers and Rasmus in arb, and $46.5M in FA REAL contracts)

'14 FAKE Payroll - $172.7M (121M + $10M + $41.7 in FA FAKE contracts)

 

Payroll is likely to be +$30M less than that though

[GD]

IMO Choo, McCann and Garza would be the dream off-season. I wanted to know how much it would cost for all three and where that would put the Jays' payroll. Thought I'd share;

 

Choo + McCann + Garza

 

REAL - $46.5M

FAKE - $41.7M

 

'14 REAL Payroll - $177.5M (using $121M for Lind's and Janssen's options plus the current salary committed to 14 players + $10M for Cecil, Rogers and Rasmus in arb, and $46.5M in FA REAL contracts)

'14 FAKE Payroll - $172.7M (121M + $10M + $41.7 in FA FAKE contracts)

 

Payroll is likely to be +$30M less than that though

 

Or you trade for Bailey/Lynn/Sale/Chacin/Quintana/Leake instead of Garza cause Garza's pretty overrated and it'd knock off quite a bit of $$$ from that total.

[DuckDuckGose]

Or you trade for Bailey/Lynn/Sale/Chacin/Quintana/Leake instead of Garza cause Garza's pretty overrated and it'd knock off quite a bit of $$$ from that total.

 

And give up lots of value to make it happen plus they all will be paid in their careers.

[GD]

And give up lots of value to make it happen plus they all will be paid in their careers.

 

Well they're all probably valuable enough to justify giving up the assets. And at some point they will be, but all of them except Bailey will probably only be in line for a payday after our payroll comes down.

[SAAviour]

This is the least excited I've been for an offseason in years. I just can't see an outcome where it ends well. Either we do nothing and suck again next year or overpay for crap and suck again next year.

 

I might be able to gather one more season of optimism out of my pessimistic blue jays ass...JJ resigns for 7 mil and dominates, morrow is healthy and dominates, dickey pitches like the 2nd half last year, Hutchison pitches like he was before injury, stroman wins ROY in a close race to the jays new signing tanaka, drabek finds his stuff and the strike zone...holy s*** we have too much pitching.

[G-Snarls]

I might be able to gather one more season of optimism out of my pessimistic blue jays ass...JJ resigns for 7 mil and dominates, morrow is healthy and dominates, dickey pitches like the 2nd half last year, Hutchison pitches like he was before injury, stroman wins ROY in a close race to the jays new signing tanaka, drabek finds his stuff and the strike zone...holy s*** we have too much pitching.

 

OMG I started seeing this happening while I read it. Then poof! My bubble burst.

[Sammy225]

I'm think getting a new catcher could be pretty exciting.

 

Really the only thing I am looking forward too this off season however I fully expect AA to f*** that up too.

[Dr. Dinger]

There's no point in even discussing Choo, who is a Boras client. Boras and the Jays have blacklisted each other and it's not going to change until Beeston leaves.

[Angrioter]

There's no point in even discussing Choo, who is a Boras client. Boras and the Jays have blacklisted each other and it's not going to change until Beeston leaves.

 

The Boras's dynasty is coming to an end. MLB teams have a conspiracy against him, headed by Cashman and Beeston.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

I might be able to gather one more season of optimism out of my pessimistic blue jays ass...JJ resigns for 7 mil and dominates, morrow is healthy and dominates, dickey pitches like the 2nd half last year, Hutchison pitches like he was before injury, stroman wins ROY in a close race to the jays new signing tanaka, drabek finds his stuff and the strike zone...holy s*** we have too much pitching.

 

More likely positive scenario is the Jays sign one or two decent hitters, drop JPA and become one of the best hitting teams in baseball. Lawrie will be good next year. Pitching I'd rather they gamble on their own then overpay for guys like Garza who seem like bad gambles to me on long term deals. Adding one durable pitcher would help if their offence is great. The pitchers I think are most likely to post a positive improvement next season are Dickey, Stroman, and Hutch.

 

As much as I like Morrow, injury history isn't pretty. But anything you get out of him helps the team. He could maybe be real good for 2 months then get injured again. My guess is they splurge big on a high profile free agent hitter and/or overpay for a starter like Santana. If none of that works out, they'll trade Bautista for somebody like Cliff Lee. Cannot possibly see them inactive this off season, something major will occur.

[Jays]

OMG I started seeing this happening while I read it. Then poof! My bubble burst.

 

you realized it wasn't going to happen when you got to Drabek.

[G-Snarls]

More likely positive scenario is the Jays sign one or two decent hitters, drop JPA and become one of the best hitting teams in baseball. Lawrie will be good next year. Pitching I'd rather they gamble on their own then overpay for guys like Garza who seem like bad gambles to me on long term deals. Adding one durable pitcher would help if their offence is great. The pitchers I think are most likely to post a positive improvement next season are Dickey, Stroman, and Hutch.

 

As much as I like Morrow, injury history isn't pretty. But anything you get out of him helps the team. He could maybe be real good for 2 months then get injured again. My guess is they splurge big on a high profile free agent hitter and/or overpay for a starter like Santana. If none of that works out, they'll trade Bautista for somebody like Cliff Lee. Cannot possibly see them inactive this off season, something major will occur.

 

I know what you mean about internal options for pitching. So many question marks but a lot of potential actually.

 

I'd be totally down with only signing someone like Kuroda on a 1 year deal. As long as catcher is addressed and another position (LF or 2B) is upgraded.

[G-Snarls]

you realized it wasn't going to happen when you got to Drabek.

 

Tragically, I am probably way too optimistic about what Drabek might provide in 2014. So much potential for disappointment.

[Pete_7]

Sign me up for Infante