MLBTR: Blue Jays arbitration eligible players

[G-Snarls]

I love these articles on MLBTR

 

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work. The Blue Jays are next in our series. Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

 

Colby Rasmus (5.000): $6.5MM

 

With big-time power and a solid .276 batting average, Rasmus finally showed the star potential that compelled the Blue Jays to trade for him in 2011, though an oblique strain knocked him out for a month. His career-worst strikeout 29.5% rate portends a return to his low average days, but Rasmus will remain a major asset in center field. 2014 will be his contract year, and he won't turn 28 until August. With free agency so close, it will be difficult to extend Rasmus for less than B.J. Upton money.

 

J.P. Arencibia (3.059): $2.8MM

 

Arencibia continued to hit home runs, many of them in April. However, his .227 on-base percentage was the worst for a player with at least 400 plate appearances since Rob Picciolo's .218 mark as a rookie shortstop for the A's in 1977. FanGraphs suggests Arencibia was below replacement level overall this year, but it still seems someone would pick him up via trade prior to the December 2nd non-tender deadline.

 

Esmil Rogers (3.135): $1MM

 

Rogers moved into the Jays' rotation in June, posting a 4.89 ERA in 20 starts. The hard-throwing 28-year-old righty is cheap enough to retain as a swingman.

 

Brett Cecil (3.152): $900K

 

In his first full season in the bullpen, Cecil posted a 2.82 ERA in 60 2/3 innings and made the All-Star team. His season ended a little early with an elbow injury. The Jays have been willing to do small multiyear deals with players like this in the past, so if the injury is minor that could be possible with Cecil.

 

Assuming Rasmus, Arencibia, Rogers, and Cecil are tendered contracts, the Blue Jays are looking at an estimated $11.2MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Edited October 3, 2013 by G-Snarls

[G-Snarls]

Let me be the first to say that the thought of paying JP Arencibia 2.8 million dollars next year makes me sick

 

Trade or non-tender please

[kcjaysfan]

Let me be the first to say that the thought of paying JP Arencibia 2.8 million dollars next year makes me sick

 

Trade or non-tender please

 

That's only $133K per home run! It's a bargain!

[G-Snarls]

At that salary, JPA needs to be non-tendered if they can't move him.

 

I just hope AA doesn't let him go to arbitration hoping he can keep him for a lot less than that, then loses the case

 

#WorstCaseScenario cause then you're totally stuck

[G-Snarls]

#WorstCaseScenario

 

Or, if you prefer:

 

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http://i.qkme.me/7a6f.jpg

[G-Snarls]

Plan for JP:

 

Plan A: Try hard to trade him to a rebuilding club that could be patient with him, a team with a borderline catcher that he can share time with. Accept a B prospect in return. Wipe your hands and chuckle to yourself in an evil manner. Sign Ruiz.

 

Failing that

 

Plan B: Non-tender him. Offer him a minor league contract, start him in Buffalo next year and have him work work work on his defense and hitting approach. Curse yourself and the Mariners for the fact that you're still stuck with him in the organization. Sign Ruiz.

[Frenchsoup]

I can't really see them starting jpa in buffalo due to them wanting to give Jiminez most of the starts. So I'm pretty certain HE GONE.

[G-Snarls]

It was in the 1.5M range I could see it. We are talking about closer to 3 after paying him the mininum this past season. No way hes coming back. Save that money go after a veteran back stop like Ruiz. If you want to save some money bring back Jose Molina and put the money elsewhere.

 

Yep. Near 3M? When we can get a proven GOOD catcher for 6-7M a year? Nuh uh.

[G-Snarls]

Thread had been locked

 

Not sure why

 

Fixed

[dineke]

Offer JP the minimum, he's now married to a rich country singer so maybe he'll take it.

 

Oh no wait nvm, he isn't even worth the minimum. Silly me.

[GD]

Oh no wait nvm, he isn't even worth the minimum.

 

qft

[flafson]

Sounds pretty good if you ask me.

 

Until he becomes the next MVP and then we are all going to cry and blame AA.

[G-Snarls]

If they non-tender him I doubt he comes back to Toronto

 

Win - win

[G-Snarls]

Some people here do flip-flop like that but this year Arencibia was one of the worst hitters... ever. If you can't get rid of that, what can you get rid of?

 

Izruris and Arencibia were among the 20 most negatively performing players in all of MLB this year and racked up 900 PA between the two of them.

 

Both cannot be on this team next year and Izturis can only stay if he's a true backup, getting < 200 PA

[Chappy]

If JP is back next season as the starting catcher this team might as well just concede the season. Changes need to be made and JP tops that list. If not then its time to clean house. No one will trade for him, I just can't see it at this point. Time to cut ties.

[jaysblue]

If the Jays are serious about contending next season, there is no way JPA is on the active roster and guaranteed a majority of the AB's behind the plate. Cannot have that mess again in 2014.

[flafson]

I don't think 30 homeruns at some point is out the question. But he can't play Catcher everyday and he doesn't do enough to warrant getting everyday at-bats at 1B or DH. He will have to alter his approach. If he wants to be a 1B/DH hes gotta at least get on base at the league average and OPS over .800.

 

Thing is, i'm pretty sure he spends most of his time preparing as a catcher and only then he's preparing as a batter. So in theory if you do put him on 1B/DH, he might show you what he got (or not)

[NorthOf49]

Thing is, i'm pretty sure he spends most of his time preparing as a catcher and only then he's preparing as a batter. So in theory if you do put him on 1B/DH, he might show you what he got (or not)

There are always many options on the market who can give you a league-average line or better wRC+ on the cheap. Justin Morneau posted a 102 this year, and 108 last year. He'll take a one-year deal at a <6 million. Why not just sign Morneau, instead of praying for a miracle with Arencibia, who has 1400 PA of 76 wRC+ production and has actually gotten worse with each season.