Blair, Davidi, Wilner round table discussion

[Abomination]

And here lies the problem. If the scouts and the GM don't understand the numbers...

 

I can't find the article, but I know it came out at some point that AA was very heavily into advanced stats early in his career (well before he became GM). He understands them, count on it. He's also said (from 2011 BP article) that when he became GM the Jays were extremely lacking in using stats, but he's been trying to build that up gradually.

 

People around here tend to get a perception of something in their heads and then go off the deep end with it. AA may not be into stats at the same level as Beane (most aren't), but he isn't an old school dinosaur either. I think he also said recently that he listened too much to some of his advisers in the past and ignored his own beliefs, and that he needed to be a little more firm in listening to his own evaluations.

[CHRIS]

Players who you hope for a .700 OPS on don't belong on a Major League team, unless they're a defensive wizard at shortstop (Simmons, Iglesias, etc.)

 

Once JPA returns to the lofty heights of hitting .230, I'm sure everything else will fall into place.

[connorp]

There's also a world of difference between "could be a .700 OPS guy" and "is a .700 OPS guy, with potential for more."

 

Players who you hope for a .700 OPS on don't belong on a Major League team, unless they're a defensive wizard at shortstop (Simmons, Iglesias, etc.)

 

I would bet C mean OPS isnt too high over .700.. .720 or something at best I would think. Anyone know?

[Boxcar]

I can't find the article, but I know it came out at some point that AA was very heavily into advanced stats early in his career (well before he became GM). He understands them, count on it. He's also said (from 2011 BP article) that when he became GM the Jays were extremely lacking in using stats, but he's been trying to build that up gradually.

 

People around here tend to get a perception of something in their heads and then go off the deep end with it. AA may not be into stats at the same level as Beane (most aren't), but he isn't an old school dinosaur either. I think he also said recently that he listened too much to some of his advisers in the past and ignored his own beliefs, and that he needed to be a little more firm in listening to his own evaluations.

 

Man, I do applaud him for somehow keeping up the illusion. Even if I didn't already have an idea of how anti-stat AA is, his trades totally tell the tale. He has absolutely no idea what makes a player valuable. All about athleticism and tools.

 

Would a guy who understands stats put a guy with a biology degree at the head of his department? Would a guy like Jay Sartori not have a rudimentary understanding of linear weights? How much more evidence do people need to realize that AA is no better than Beeston?

[ElNik2013]

I can't find the article, but I know it came out at some point that AA was very heavily into advanced stats early in his career (well before he became GM). He understands them, count on it. He's also said (from 2011 BP article) that when he became GM the Jays were extremely lacking in using stats, but he's been trying to build that up gradually.

 

I remember him talking about having read all the Bill James stuff in an interview he did with Mansbridge One on One, I think it's on YT. This was just before the start of the 2013 season. I think he says that he's tried to rely on both as the years have gone by which is rather worrisome because his moves have gotten worse so this may explain it.

 

People around here tend to get a perception of something in their heads and then go off the deep end with it. AA may not be into stats at the same level as Beane (most aren't), but he isn't an old school dinosaur either. I think he also said recently that he listened too much to some of his advisers in the past and ignored his own beliefs, and that he needed to be a little more firm in listening to his own evaluations.

 

 

You're right about him him saying he needed to be more firm, he mentioned this when he was being questioned about re-hiring Gibbons at that famous press conference. However, I think this also applied to the moves he had made.

[Olerud363]

I remember him talking about having read all the Bill James stuff in an interview he did with Mansbridge One on One, I think it's on YT. This was just before the start of the 2013 season. I think he says that he's tried to rely on both as the years have gone by which is rather worrisome because his moves have gotten worse so this may explain it.

 

 

 

 

You're right about him him saying he needed to be more firm, he mentioned this when he was being questioned about re-hiring Gibbons at that famous press conference. However, I think this also applied to the moves he had made.

 

I don't think AA understand Bill James. Bill James isn't about stats... it's about people, about society, about how to think.

 

All you need is times on base, power, (for hitters), number of plays made (for defenders), strikeouts, walks, homeruns (for pitchers)...

 

Those are the only stats you need. Assuming that you have some intelligent people (and scouts) who believe in those simple stats, and are willing to engage in longer conversations to intrepret those stats properly.

 

Were the stats produced in Colorado?? Or in Sandiego?? What other factors need to be considered?? Injuries?? Age?? Extreme tendencies?? Is there reason to believe the above stats don't tell the entire story (extreme ground ball pitcher, infield defender playing behind flyball staff).

 

The complicated stats capture the logic of "shooting the s***". Bunch of guys in a room discussing this stuff.

 

1. use simple stats and shoot the s*** as long as you have logical people in the room.

2. use complicated stats.

 

So if AA has the right guys in the room, he doesn't need to use complicated stats (Bill James is a better writer or "s***-shoter" then stat-guy).

Or if he doesn't want to discuss things in depth then he should use advanced stats.

 

The worst is using the wrong stats and having the wrong guys in the room. Which some are speculating is the Toronto Blue Jays situation.

[GD]

I don't think AA understand Bill James. Bill James isn't about stats... it's about people, about society, about how to think.

 

I'm almost entirely sure you've posted this exact same thing before. But it could just be that every single one of your posts is the same.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Handsmomeness level, hottness of GF or wife on 1 to 10 scale.

 

I guess Alex has bad taste in women then, because Jason Frasor is pitching for the Rangers.

[Nox]

He understands them, count on it.

.

 

He absolutely does not.

[Nox]

Challenge: Can anybody find an article/post/whatever that has an AA quote in it where he demonstrates at least a rudimentary understanding of "advanced" metrics? We've read alot of the "AA knows stats because he does" type of articles and a number of quotes from the fat man where he talks about how he thinks he gets them but it's really just hot air.

 

You hear Friedman, Shapiro, Huntington et al speak to things like adding wins in the market and the price of a win. Talking about increasing their run differential. AA has never even once mentioned something like this publicly to my knowledge. He uses OPS almost exclusively and somehow thought Miguel Cabrera was more valuable than Mike Trout last year. I mean f***, I know those are pretty anecdotal but they should at least be pretty god damned suspicious.

[TheHurl]

wait adding two stats together isn't advanced?